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Pivot

US Inflation Rate, YoY, Double Top? - Long-term ViewPresently, the inflation rate in the US has started falling, which increases expectations for a pivot - end of interest rate hikes. And factually, we can actually expect it. The supply of M2 Money Stock (M2SL) and its annual growth rate are decreasing. The global economy is shifting, as leading economic index (LEI) indicate. This will undoubtedly put pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, after the current crisis, the economic recovery will cause a recurrence of inflation. So, if that is the case, the next decade will be marked by tight monetary policy and high inflation. This situation will let the central banks introduce a new monetary system based on CBDCs using incentives such as cheaper credit. Check also my related ideas. Enjoy
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by MichaelFX_ICT
Explosion Gap Pivot, $TMDX $PI & $WINGThese 3 stocks look like leaders, and all are making the same patter. The play is simple, wait for a throwback from the gap and then buy the close above the high. The thing is that as they are all real moovers, I'd try staggering stops. Is the best way I know to manage risk in stocks with hihg volatility. NASDAQ:WING is the first to breakout but with a doji candle. That is not very convincing. I'll wait until near the close to see if I start with a small position.
NASDAQ:WINGLong
by dpuleo19
S&P 500 / M2 Money Stock, George Tritch's CycleNow we have a period of high inflation that, in my opinion, will continue for some time. Even if it falls (as the M2 money stock decline points out), we may have a second reversal wave of inflation during the revival after the current bear market. For this reason, a lot of people are waiting for a pivot, which, according to them, will mark the low. This statement is wrong. After pivots, we usually observe the biggest drops on the S&P 500. Similarly, with yield curves - they are inverted, which is a very strong bearish signal. At this point, I invite you to look at the related ideas about the 2008 analogy. The above chart shows the value of the S&P 500 index divided by the M2 Money Stock, which in general presents the situation on the money market - the amount of money in the economy. So we can see how the share prices relate to it. In addition, I added George Tritch's cycle (arrows), which has been assigned the most lows and highs in the past. Shaded arrows indicate less important turning points for this chart. The timing is more important than my projected path; it is only for visualization. The bottom of the current bear market should be in 2023. The next bull market with a high around 2026 should be less generous than the last. The major low of the actual cycle should be around 2032.   And that's all. Enjoy.
SP:SPX
by MichaelFX_ICT
Special Entry Patterns - IPO'sJS-TechTrading Masterclass : Special Entry Patterns - IPO's In a previous tutorial, I have explained the general characteristics of a perfect buy point. In this tutorial, we will look at IPO's (Initial Public Offerings) and discuss how to identify primary bases. IPO's coming out of primary bases can make huge price moves - let's discuss how to find the next monster mover, similar to what stocks like Amazon could achieve after their Initial Public Offering phase. Perfect Entry Points – IPO’s – The Primary Base When it comes to investing in IPO stocks, new issues don't play by the usual rules. Companies making initial public offerings draw a lot of investor attention. That often results in unusual and brand-new chart patterns. Volatility can rise as investors size up demand for the new stock. Yet there are opportunities in these cases, if you can spot the correct characteristics amid the price-and-volume action. The framework of a good IPO base is simple. The decline from peak to low usually doesn't top 20%, but the most volatile markets have produced declines of up to 50%. The length is often less than five weeks and can be as short as seven days. These two factors alone make IPO bases wayward cousins compared with proper bases, such as the cup with handle and flat base, which need at least five to seven weeks of work. In an IPO base, the pattern typically starts within 25 days of the stock's first day of trading. Know the important similarities with regular bases. For example, the buy point is drawn by taking the prior high and adding 10 cents. The price gain on the breakout should be strong. There are ways to evaluate these blind spots, however. Important factors include seeing a shallow correction within the base during normal market conditions, a large increase in price and a close near session highs on the breakout day, and heavy volume on the breakout day and week. Also, the stock should generally form the base above its IPO price. Example - ServiceNow (NOW) The business software company, went public in June 2012, at 18 a share and has built its primary base during the period from the initial offering to April 2013 when the stock developed its first perfect buy point.
Education
by JS_TechTrading
JS-Masterclass #6: The Perfect Buy PointThe Perfect Buy Point A Perfect Buy Point represents the completion of a stock’s consolidation and the potential start of its next advance. After a base pattern has been established, the Perfect Buy Point is where the stock establishes a price level that will act as the trigger to enter a trade. When a stock’s price level moves through the Perfect Buy Point, there is a high probability that this represents the start of the next advancing phase. You can also call the Perfect Buy Point a “call to action” price level – it is the optimal buy point. In the context of a stock’s Volatility Contraction Pattern, a temporary pause (also called a base building process) allows you to set a buy stop to enter a trade. You want to buy as close to thePerfect Buy Point as possible without chasing the stock up more than 1.0%. In this context, the use of buy stop limit orders is recommended. As a solid consolidation process and the formation of a Volatility Contraction Pattern are needed before a Perfect Buy Point can occur, The Perfect Buy Point can also be considered as the line of least resistance. A stock can move very fast once it crosses this threshold. When a stock breaks through the line of least resistance, the probability is high that the price level will move much higher in a short period of time. This is the case because this represents an area where supply is low. Therefore, even a small amount of demand can move the stock higher. The importance of the Volume at the perfect Buy Point A Volatility Contraction Pattern is needed before a Perfect Buy Point can develop. As explained earlier, supply will stop coming to market at the ed of a valid Volatility Contraction Pattern. This is why we want to see the Volume significantly come down in the day or the couple of days before the Perfect Buy Point develops. Now, with only very little supply of stock in the market from sellers, even a small amount of buying can move the price up very rapidly as the price level moves through the Perfect Buy Point. In the ideal case, this move through the perfect Buy Point occurs under heavily increasing volume. This might be an indication that big institutions are putting their big money into the stock. When all of this comes together, you want to place the order as close to the Perfect Buy Point as possible. Always wait for the price level to move through the Perfect buy Point! Some traders will try to get in before the breach of the pivot point to save a few pennies on the trade. Assuming that a stock will break out is dangerous and the breakout may fail. Be patient! Remember Even if you respect all these technical requirements of a Perfect Buy Point, you will still get stopped out and incur losses. BUT: Trading is all about probabilities…respecting these rules will increase your probability to enter profitable trades and significantly outperform other traders and increase your chances to be consistently profitable in the market.
Education
by JS_TechTrading
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