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GBPJPY: Key Resistance in Focus This Week - Breakout Potential?GBPJPY faces a critical juncture this week, with a formidable monthly resistance level at 193.659 coming into view. If the pair can surmount this hurdle, it could unlock a significant upside move towards 214.005, with limited resistance in the way. Technical Analysis: GBPJPY has been in a strong uptrend since the beginning of the year, gaining over 17%. The pair is now approaching a key monthly resistance level at 193.659. A break above this level could signal further bullish momentum, with a potential target of 214.005. There is limited resistance between 193.659 and 214.005, suggesting that the pair could make a significant move if it breaks above the resistance level. Fundamental Factors: The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to raise interest rates at its next meeting in March. This could support the pound sterling against the Japanese yen. The Japanese economy is facing headwinds from rising inflation and a weak yen. This could weigh on the Japanese yen and support GBPJPY. Conclusion: GBPJPY is poised for a significant move this week. A break above the key resistance level at 193.659 could signal further bullish momentum, with a potential target of 214.005. Traders should closely monitor GBPJPY's price action around the 193.659 level this week. A breakout above this resistance could indicate further bullish momentum, while a rejection could indicate a potential pullback. Additional Information: The pair has already broken the monthly pivot and pulled back to it, which could be a bullish signal. The RSI indicator is also showing bullish momentum, with a reading of 65. The MACD indicator is also bullish, with a crossover above the signal line. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions.
Long
by behnamxt
1
How to Trade Support and Resistancesupport and resistance levels are crucial concepts that every trader needs to grasp. These levels represent key points on a chart where the price tends to reverse its direction. By analyzing historical price action, traders can identify these areas and strategize their trades based on how the price reacts upon reaching these levels. The Simplicity and Complexity of S&R While the idea of support and resistance is straightforward to understand, effectively trading these levels can be challenging due to psychological barriers and emotional involvement. Mastering support and resistance trading isn’t just about recognizing patterns; it’s also about understanding the human emotions driving those patterns. What is Support and Resistance Support is a price level where a currency’s downward trend is expected to pause due to a concentration of demand. It’s where buyers step in, viewing the currency as undervalued, thus preventing further price decline. The OANDA:XAUUSD chart above depicts a notable support level of 2031. Historically, when the price of Gold reaches this level, it tends to initiate an upward trajectory. Traders can identify potential trading opportunities at this juncture and consider establishing long positions after the confirmation signal, such as a break of structure, signs of a liquidity sweep, or the order block. Traders can also use the bullish candlestick pattern as an additional signal when considering support zones for buying opportunities. In the FX:EURUSD pair, there is a noteworthy support zone extending from 1.0648 to 1.0666. Over several instances, the price has consistently demonstrated a pattern of bouncing upward from within this range, as illustrated in the chart. Let’s see another example of support zones with stop-loss hinting. The price level at 1.08924 serves as a significant support zone; however, it’s important to note that smart money often orchestrates moves that trigger stop-loss orders before driving the price upwards. Later in this S&R trading guide, we’ll delve into a detailed discussion of the concept of stop-loss hunting, complete with illustrative examples. What is Resistance Resistance levels are price levels at which the price tends to move in a downward direction. Let’s analyze the chart provided above. The circled areas on the chart represent strong resistance zones where the price tends to move in a downward direction in the EURUSD pair. It’s worth noting that quite often, the price moves downward after triggering stop-loss orders in these areas. This phenomenon can be observed frequently in any currency pair. The Psychology Behind These Levels Fear and Greed: These are the two main emotions at play. At support levels, fear (of prices falling more) meets greed (for buying at a low price). At resistance levels, it’s the opposite; greed (for higher selling prices) meets fear (of prices dropping). Group Thinking: Many traders are watching the same levels. When a lot of people act the same way (buying at support or selling at resistance), it reinforces these levels. Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Because so many traders are watching these levels, their reactions to them can make the support and resistance predictions come true. Formula of Support and Resistance Pivot Point Calculation The Pivot Point (PP) is calculated as the average of the high, low, and close prices of the previous trading period: Pivot Point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3 First-Level Support and Resistance First Resistance (R1) This is calculated by doubling the pivot point, then subtracting the low of the previous period. First Resistance (R1) = (2 x PP) – Low First Support (S1) This is found by doubling the pivot point and subtracting the previous period’s high. First Support (S1) = (2 x PP) – High Second-Level Support and Resistance Second Resistance (R2) This level is calculated by adding the difference between the high and low of the previous period to the pivot point. Second Resistance (R2) = PP + (High – Low) Second Support (S2) This is determined by subtracting the difference between the high and low of the previous period from the pivot point. Second Support (S2) = PP – (High – Low) Third Level Support and Resistance Third Resistance (R3) Calculated by adding twice the difference between the pivot point and the low to the high. Third Resistance (R3) = High + 2(PP – Low) Third Support (S3) Found by subtracting twice the difference between the high and the pivot point from the low. Third Support (S3) = Low – 2(High – PP) These pivot point-based support and resistance levels are crucial tools for traders, providing potential points of market reversal or continuation. The pivot point is often seen as a marker of equilibrium between bullish and bearish market forces. The Phenomenon of Stop-Loss Triggers at These Points A stop-loss order is a tool used in trading to sell a security when it reaches a predetermined price, to limit potential losses. To understand how it relates to support and resistance, consider the following analogy: Think of trading as a game where you establish a rule: if your score drops below a certain point, you decide to exit the game to prevent further losses. This rule resembles the concept of a “stop-loss” in trading. Now, picture a scenario involving seasoned players, often represented by large funds, who aim to maximize their gains in the game. They observe that many players have set their exit points at a specific level, such as 100 points. These experienced players intentionally create the impression that the game’s score is approaching that critical 100-point level. As the score gets closer to 100 points, other players become anxious and decide to exit the game (activating their stop-loss orders) to avoid more significant losses. This sudden mass exit results in a sharp decline in the game’s score. Smart money takes advantage of this situation by purchasing more points at the lower price they anticipated. After acquiring these points at a discounted rate, they allow the game’s score to rebound, ultimately profiting when it reaches higher levels. In essence, this illustrates how Informed Money, often represented by large funds, may manipulate the market by creating the illusion that prices are nearing significant support or resistance levels. This can trigger the activation of stop-loss orders by other traders, enabling the seasoned players to capitalize on lower prices before the market resumes its upward trajectory. Trading Strategy for Support and Resistance When trading support and resistance make decisions on their base consider the following points. Identify Support and Resistance in Larger Time Frames: Locate these levels in extended time frames like H1, H4, and D1 to gain a clear understanding of the market’s pivotal points. This approach not only clarifies your perspective when trading in smaller time frames but also reduces confusion. Confusion often arises from too many levels, making it challenging to determine which levels present viable trading opportunities. Patience: Wait for the price to reach these levels and look for additional signals. Utilize Bearish and Bullish Candlestick Patterns: Employing candlestick patterns at these levels aids in decision-making and enables traders to strategically set take-profit and stop-loss orders. Develop a Trading Bias: Establish a daily bias at the beginning of each week to assist in deciding whether to take long or short trades. Focus only on those levels that align with your trading bias. In conclusion, discipline is paramount in trading. It’s essential to avoid overtrading and adhere strictly to your established trading plans. Using stop-loss orders is crucial in managing risk and protecting your capital. Additionally, limiting your focus to a fixed set of currency pairs allows for a more in-depth understanding of their market dynamics, leading to more informed trading decisions. Remember, consistency and discipline in following these practices can significantly enhance your trading effectiveness and help in achieving long-term success. how to identify strong support and resistance Historical Price Levels: The most basic method is to look at historical price charts. Strong support and resistance levels are often at prices where the market has repeatedly reversed or consolidated. These levels are more significant if they have been tested multiple times. Round Numbers: Psychological levels often play a crucial role in trading. Prices such as 1.3000 in EUR/USD or 100 in USD/JPY are examples where traders might expect support or resistance.
Education
by Golden_Star1994
3
BITCOIN|Does the BULLISH trend continue?Bitcoin chart in 4 hours time frame. In the previous analysis, we saw that there was a significant upward movement in the area of demand that we considered. I hope you have used this opportunity well. Currently, Bitcoin is strongly bullish and there are no signs of weakness in the trend, so we should look for more suitable places, areas of valid demand to enter buying positions. As you can see, Bitcoin had an initial correction up to $46,600, but it came back with demand and is currently trading in the range of $48,300! Until this moment, we have not seen a strong negative reaction from Bitcoin, and this means that the power of the Bulls is still high! The demand ranges are ($44,900 to $45,500), ($42,800 to $43,300)respectively! In case of an upward trend, its mid-term targets are $50,500 and $52,700 , respectively!
Long
by Golden_Star1994
GOLD|Weekly roadmap and important areasHello, I hope you are doing well We see gold chart in 1 hour time frame. We saw a drop for gold on Friday after the nfp data release. Further, selling pressure on gold has been maintained and managed to break the important demand area downwards. At the moment, we are on the demand zone, where we have to wait for this candle to close. If candlestick or price patterns are formed, we can enter buying positions. If this area breaks down, it is the next demand area (2011-2008). Supply areas (2042-2039) and 2047 range are valid areas to check the price in this area.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Golden_Star1994
1
Is failure valid?As you can see, the daily trend has managed to break its downward trend line and it is also in the direction of the weekly trend. Due to the breakdown of the daily trend line, we are waiting to return to the target area, and of course, we are considering the goals ahead ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Banipal : @hosseinbakrani 📅 02.20.2023 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
U
by hosseinbakrani
SPY 2 Week ForecastAMEX:SPY I'm doing a quick analysis of basic price action from the start of 2024 thru the end of January. AMEX:SPY $475 is a possible support High and Lows for this year are identified, a break of either of those could generate a more significant move in the same direction. We could see a lot of chop between AMEX:SPY $478 and $472, but if $472 holds then there is still a case for more All Time Highs in the future. Using a fib extension from this year only, 1.618 value would put us around AMEX:SPY $490 - $492 which for me a reasonable move up. 3% or so is something SPY can do in a week easy. Using an offset moving average , $476 would become support 50 days out. This is just what the moving average gives, but it seems reasonable. JPM issues $5100 price target for SP:SPX this year 2024.
AMEX:SPY
by DontSlamTheDoor
GOLD BUY Weak Economic Data UpcomingDear Traders, Gold tends to react to weak economic data and potential shifts in interest rates for several reasons: Hedge Against Economic Uncertainty: Gold is often considered a safe-haven asset. When economic data indicates weakness, such as low GDP growth, rising unemployment, or sluggish consumer spending, it can signal economic instability. Investors turn to gold as a store of value during uncertain times, which increases demand and consequently its price. Inverse Relationship with Interest Rates: Gold doesn't yield interest or dividends like bonds or stocks. Therefore, when interest rates are high, the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-interest-bearing asset, is greater. Conversely, when interest rates decrease or are expected to decrease, the opportunity cost of holding gold diminishes, making it relatively more attractive. Hence, the anticipation of a pivot towards lower interest rates can drive up demand for gold. Currency Depreciation Hedge: Gold is priced in US dollars globally. When interest rates are cut, the relative value of the currency can decline. Lower interest rates can lead to inflationary pressures or a weaker currency, making gold more appealing as a hedge against potential currency depreciation. Market Speculation and Sentiment: Markets often react based on expectations and speculation. If there's a strong anticipation of interest rate cuts due to weak economic data, investors might proactively position themselves in gold as a precautionary measure, anticipating its value to increase, thereby driving up demand and price. Central Bank Actions: Central banks often use interest rate adjustments to manage inflation, stimulate economic growth, or mitigate economic downturns. Gold tends to respond positively to central bank decisions that signal economic concerns or policies intended to support economic recovery, which can fuel increased demand. Therefore, in anticipation of weak economic data and an impending pivot towards lower interest rates, investors might seek refuge in gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty, potential currency devaluation, and as an alternative store of value, all of which can drive up demand and subsequently increase the price of gold. Greetings, ZTrades
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
GOLDEN STAR|Trend reversal from the resistance zoneFrom the resistance area of the four-hour period, we saw the price return, which made it break its previous low in the one-hour period, create a new low, and again record a lower level than before. -Now the price reversal has been confirmed by the resistance zone and we are witnessing a change in the trend. -For selling positions, we should wait for the price to reach the resistance areas specified on the chart, which is drawn in the 15-m time frame of this new area. -We expect to enter into sales transactions upon reaching the district and obtaining appropriate approvals.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Golden_Star1994
2
FOMC - is this the top of the rate cycle? Be cautious buying this uptrend, and be especially cautious trying to catch the bottom of a mediocre company in a downtrend. I don't view the current environment to be fully risk off or fully risk on, but showing signs of the last leg of the business cycle. My preference is to target 20-30% cash and focus on companies with a high sharpe ratio, and lower dependence on debt. The market has had a nice uptrend, but there is a consistent pattern of trend reversals after FOMC updates. The fed delivers a message and the market reacts. Then the market begins to shift the narrative in between meetings, only to be caught off guard by the fed remaining on course for inflation. I personally expect the fed to separate price stability from banking stability and remain on the tightening path with a 25bps increase. However, a pause in rates will likely mark the top of the rate cycle. In this chart we see the following business cycle trends: • Local bottoms in global net liquidity signal local bottoms in risk assets (Oct 2022) • The last leg of the cycle starts when the market for 2yr bonds rolls over fed funds and remains there (remains there being the key). This makes the current rate decision meaningful. • The market can continue 20-40% upward movement for 15-30 months until experiencing a credit crisis • Market bottoms are confirmed once maximum unemployment is reached • Maximum unemployment is observed to be 24-36 months from the double top of core inflation (Mar 2022) While every business cycle is unique, monetary and fiscal policy tend to adjust to conditions with similar tactics and in similar time frames. I will continue to move my assumptions outward if rate increases continue. SP:SPX FRED:FEDFUNDS
Editors' picks
SP:SPX
by Ben_1148x2
46
weekly time frame overview | USDCHF supply zone in control USDCHF established a potential weekly supply imbalance ( w potential imbalance ) in between two zones W supply zone and W demand zone indicating more strength for bear sentiment and also a possibility for a range between this two zones. if the w potential imbalance remains the W supply zone will be in control. also if the W demand zone will take control the w potential imbalance will be raided out giving strength to W demand zone thus a bullish sentiment.
by ExtraOrdy
#NIFTY50 - Move ahead.1. Nifty is breached Bearish Golden Pivot Zone (GPZ) and trading above Monthly Cam H4( Bullish Breakout) and traditional pivot level R1. 2. Nifty levels 19751-19851 having very strong supply zone but the good news is Quarterly pivot is at 19695 above this level and past 3 sessions nifty closed above this level. we can say above 19700 is now a very strong support. 3. Volume on daily time frame is increasing and above 13 moving average. 4. If Nifty Daily close above 19888 then we will see new higher high in upcoming weeks.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Game_0f_Pivot
VCP Breakout Buy in NVONovo Nordisk is emerging from a textbook volatility compression pattern (VCP) - the setup made famous by Mark Minervini. Notice the series of progressively shallower pullbacks from left to right as supply has been absorbed by buyers. NVO is a market-leading stock by all accounts. Shares are up 75% over the last twelve months with no signs of slowing down. This is largely thanks to its new weight loss drug showing tremendous results in clinical trials. The company has also experience accelerating earnings growth for the last several quarters - another favorite quality of Minervini's for identifying top performers. NVO looks buyable here as a swing trade with a stop loss 9-10% below the current price.
NYSE:NVOLong
by rossgivens
1
Breakout Buy in AMPHAfter a deep pullback in August and September, Amphastar is coming back in a big way. Following its early-November earnings report, the stock is up more than 20% in the last few weeks. It has reclaimed all its moving averages and is now consolidation with a pivot at $58. Volume has dried up nicely during this consolidation which is typically a sign the stock is becoming harder to buy and getting concentrated into strong institutional hands. One might consider buying on a high-volume move above $58.
NASDAQ:AMPHLong
by rossgivens
Double Inside CELH BreakoutCelsius Holdings, the market-leading energy drink company, looks poised to emerge from a double inside day setup. The stock traded inside Tuesday's range on Wednesday and Friday and remains inside this tight area. A breakout above 55.25 would be the trigger to buy with a low-risk stop loss at 52.10 (5.6% risk). This breakout would coincide with a move through CELH's 50-day moving average (red line on chart)/ The dashed line on the chart shows additional support near the $51 level if traders wish to give the trade a little more room. This was resistance for most of the Summer and then aced as support during the pullback in October.
NASDAQ:CELHLong
by rossgivens