(SELL, 1HR) USDJPY Failed Break of Tuesday's High- price rose to previous high and failed to break it - multiple touches
- take trade to the 50 fibonacci retracement
- SL: 7-10 pips above today's high
- risk/reward: 1:6
- pips gained: 28 pips
Pivothigh
OIL Buy to Extenstion Level & Measured Move Break (Daily)Channel line represents key resistance area with pricing holding at that level.
Possible scenarios:
Target 1 represents 1.272 extension which coincides with lower pivot high
Target 2 represent measured move break of prior trading range which also coincided with highest high
S/L: Around 10 pips below wick of strongest bear candle @65.54
T/P: At pivot highs and extension levels @72.56 & @74.04
The Danger ZoneBreaking through the important pivot level of R2, the USDTRY continues to rally of the back of expected interest rate hikes. President Erdogan's monetary policy comments had little dampening effect with the USDTRY skipping past the key 4.38 level. Will Turkey's Central Bank be able to manage the current levels of inflation in the short term? Trading Forex / CFDs is High Risk.
CHFJPY - looking to sellthe top of the channelThe reason i look to sell is becuase CHFJPY in price action resistance zone and fibs resistance.
The best setup will be after a false break as you can see on the chart.
Best of luck :-)
AAPL - stand aside until after earnings announcementI last analysed AAPL on 18th March and my conclusion was that I would wait for a break above the February pivot high before considering a new position on this stock.
This has not occurred and, despite the buzz and excitement around Apples latest earnings announcement today, I will still be standing aside until I get confirmation that this high has been taken out.
While I anticipate AAPL continuing to trend up I expect, at the very least, the daily 50sma to act as better support of price than it has done on this chart in the past. Yesterday's gap up is still below the recent pivot high so there is no reason to enter a buy position on this stock right now.
MSCI trending higher (earnings due later this week)MSCI has been a good preforming stock over the last few months. It broke the 2010 high ($40.79) in late 2013 but retested this zone three times before beginning its latest trend up.
It was not until the break of the 2014 high (in early 2015) that it became of interest - which coincided with a break above the $50 half figure. The March pullback (to the 50sma) was not too deep and now we see price moving higher and further away from this moving average.
More recently we saw a double bottom formation on the daily chart (using $60 as support) then, two days ago, a bullish breakout bar. Both suggest further strength to the upside. However, with earnings due out on Thursday it is worth standing aside until after this event before considering a buy position.
DST cup and handle followed by double bottomDST has a couple of good continuation chart patterns going on.
A cup and handle formed below the $100 figure. $100 can often be a strong resistance/support zone. But once price broke through (and confirmed the cup and handle) this chart pattern suggested price could go higher.
More recently price formed a double bottom - another continuation pattern suggesting strength to the upside. The second part of the double bottom used the daily 50ma as support and, at around $104, suggests the $100 zone is now comfortably cleared.
Price is now trading at just over $110 and we could see price head towards the $118 mark (taking a measured move from the cup and handle).
I'm not looking to enter any new positions right now. But if I were (and I was happy to enter a low volume stock) I would put DST on my watchlist.
AZO makes new highAZO has been a well trending stock for many years, especially since breaking above the $200 zone in 2010.
Despite the great trend I would not have traded this due to the low volume. I generally prefer stocks with much higher volume to help aid liquidity (although AZO has done exceptionally well without adhering to this criteria). And now the stock is pretty expensive so only those with large accounts could trading consider it. AZO can go into quite long pullbacks/consolidation which are not overly deep as far as the chart is concerned - but which are over $70 in depth (from a monetary perspective).
Overall, a good chart but not a practicable one to trade.
AAPL retests 2014 highWhile I love the products AAPL isn't a stock I like to trade - the pullbacks can be too deep (as I have mentioned on previous posts regarding Apple). So saying, the latest pullback hasn't been too bad and I may consider a position on this if price swiftly breaks above $133.60 (the recent pivot high).
The recent countermove has stayed above the 2014 pivot high and found support at the 50ma - so there is a good probability that price will go higher. This isn't a stock for immediate action, however, as I will be waiting for price to break above the February high.
AAPL replaces AT&T in the Dow after today's close. It will be interesting to see if this affects Apple's price at all.
FSL gaps up yet againI last looked at FSL a couple of weeks ago on the second gap up after the break of 2014 pivot high. This gap up on 13th February was not a convincing one (due to the indecision candle) so the subsequent pullback was not unexpected. However, the gap did not get completely filled - and yesterday's gap up (on higher volume) comfortably cleared the most recent pivot high.
Reasons to take a buy position on this stock are:
* breakout bar is bullish
* uptrend since end of January
* trading above weekly and daily 50ma and 200ma
* higher volume on gaps up
* break above recent pivot high
* break above $40 round number
The main reason against taking a trade on FSL is that there is only a few years of data so we cannot see how price has behaved in the past to major market events. In addition, for near-term trades the previous two gaps have not provided an opportunity as price pulled back from the high of the breakout bars. However, neither of those two bars were bullish so this gap up should be taken on its own merit.
HRL finally clears $50 zoneHRL has struggled to comfortably clear the $50 half figure zone. It is not a great trending stock - it has been a little erratic in the past, despite its overall uptrend since the low of 2000.
The November 2014 to February 2015 consolidation tested $50 time and again - even though this zone had already been retested through August - October 2014.
More recently we have just seen a conformed bull flag and early signs of a more linear trend. It's still a bit choppy for me, so I'm going to keep my eye on it and see what develops.
