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S&P 500 Rally Exhausted? Watch This Level for the Next Drop!The S&P 500 Index( SP:SPX ) has finally touched the Resistance zone($5,680-$5,500) as I expected in my previous post . The S&P 500 Index is moving near the Resistance zone($5,680-$5,500) , the Resistance line, and Yearly Pivot Point . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the S&P 500 Index is completing the Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) , and if the uptrend line breaks , we can confirm the end of the Zigzag correction . When the S&P 500 Index started to rise on April 22 , Bitcoin also started to rise at the same time , so a decline in the S&P 500 Index can cause Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) to decline . I expect the S&P 500 Index to drop to at least $5,313 AFTER breaking the uptrend line . Note: If the S&P 500 Index touches $5,712, we can expect more pumps. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD),2-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pejman_zwin
11
Nifty Analysis EOD - 28th April 2025🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD - 28th April 2025 🔴 Nifty almost retraced 25th April’s fall — Back to Square One... What Next? 📈 Market Summary Nifty almost retraced 25th April’s fall — Back to Square One... What Next? As highlighted in previous sessions, the 24,330 ~ 24,360 zone once again proved to be a crucial resistance. Today, along with the past three sessions, we observed Nifty struggling to breach this wall — a fact clearly visible on the 75-minute time frame chart. Now the big question: ➡️ Tomorrow, can Nifty decisively breach 24,365 and sprint towards 24,500? Well, time will answer, but we must stay prepared for moves on either side. Intraday Walk: Nifty opened with a gap-up above the psychological 24,000 level at 24,070. With a slow yet steady bullish pace, it hit a high of 24,355. After touching this critical resistance, it spent almost 2 hours consolidating in the same zone. Finally, it closed at 24,312, defending most of its intraday gains — a strong show of resilience by the bulls. 🕯 Daily Candle Structure Today's Candle: 🟢 Strong Bullish Candle (Almost a Marubozu) Open: 24,070.25 High: 24,355.10 Low: 24,054.05 Close: 24,328.50 Change: +289.15 points (+1.20%) Key Observations: The session opened slightly above yesterday’s close and dipped just marginally. Buyers took charge from the very beginning, consistently pushing the index higher. Close near the day's high signals robust bullish momentum. The candle has a tiny lower shadow and minimal upper shadow, indicating persistent buying throughout the day. What It Implies: Clear bull dominance. Willingness among buyers to step up even at higher levels. If external cues remain supportive, momentum could continue into the next session. 🛡 Gladiator Strategy Update ATR: 344.11 IB Range: 182.1 (Medium IB) Market Structure: Balanced Trade Highlights: 1st Trade: Long Entry triggered at 10:05 AM — SL Hit 2nd Trade: Long Entry triggered at 11:25 AM — 1:2 Target Achieved Additional Trade (Discretionary Contra): Short Entry at 14:15 PM — 1:1.4 Target Achieved 🧾 Index Performance Snapshot Nifty 50: +289 Points (+1.20%) Bank Nifty: +768 Points (+1.41%) Nifty 500: +254 Points (+1.16%) Midcap: +870 Points (+1.62%) Smallcap: +130 Points (+0.78%) 📍 Key Levels to Watch Resistance Zones: 🔹 24,330 ~ 24,360 (Immediate hurdle) 🔹 24,480 ~ 24,540 (24,500 psychological level inside this zone) 🔹 24,800 Support Zones: 🔹 24,190 ~ 24,225 (Immediate support) 🔹 24,120 🔹 24,050 🔹 24,000 ~ 23,950 🔹 23,820 🔹 23,710 ~ 23,660 🔹 23,500 🔹 23,410 ~ 23,370 🔹 23,215 🎯 Final Thoughts "Structure is key. When levels work, respect them. When they break, adapt." The current structure indicates bulls have made a strong comeback, but remember — 24,330 ~ 24,360 remains the battleground. Only a decisive breakout above can ignite a rally towards 24,500+. Otherwise, we stay watchful for possible reversals. Stay sharp, stay prepared! ✏️ Disclaimer ✏️ This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
NSE:NIFTY
by kzatakia
XAUUSD - Gold trend reversed?!Gold is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the hourly timeframe and is in the specified pattern. The continuation of gold's movement depends on the breakdown of one of the two established trend lines, and after a valid breakdown, we expect to reach the established targets. In recent weeks, gold prices have experienced significant volatility. This precious metal, long regarded as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic uncertainty, faced a decline in Monday’s trading session. The primary reason behind this drop was signs of easing trade tensions between the United States and China, leading to decreased demand for safe assets. This decline occurred while investors awaited clarity regarding ongoing trade negotiations between the two countries. Last week, media reports indicated that China exempted some American imports from 125% tariffs, signaling a reduction in bilateral tensions. In response, Donald Trump stated that trade talks were underway; however, this claim was rejected by China. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury Secretary announced that he was unaware of any active negotiations, further fueling market doubts. According to a recent Federal Reserve survey, participants cited the outflow of foreign capital from U.S. assets and a decline in the dollar’s value as potential new economic shocks. Some respondents believed that increased tariffs might only cause limited market disruptions. The survey indicated that despite market turmoil in April, prices remained elevated relative to fundamental indicators. Meanwhile, investors were closely awaiting key U.S. economic data set to be released over the coming week. While the previous week was relatively quiet in terms of economic indicators, market focus has shifted toward a series of critical U.S. employment reports. These include the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday, the ADP private-sector employment report on Wednesday, and weekly jobless claims on Thursday—all paving the way for the most crucial event of the week: the April Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, to be released Friday morning. Beyond these reports, several major events are scheduled in the economic calendar: Canada’s federal election on Monday, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday, preliminary first-quarter GDP data, pending home sales figures, and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday, followed by the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday—all of which could impact market sentiment. On another front, the China Gold Association reported that gold consumption fell by 5.96% in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 290,492 tons. Although gold jewelry demand declined by 26.85%, investment-related gold demand surged by 29.81%, reflecting investors’ pursuit of safe assets amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Domestic gold production in China increased by 1.49%, and assets held in gold ETFs rose sharply by 327.73%, indicating heightened financial caution among Chinese consumers in 2025. A recent report from Goldman Sachs suggests that the downward trend of the U.S. dollar is far from over and that the currency remains significantly overvalued. Jan Hatzius, the bank’s chief economist, stated that despite the dollar’s recent 5% drop, it still stands roughly two standard deviations above its long-term real average since 1973. Historically, such levels have marked the beginning of multi-year correction cycles for the dollar. Similar patterns occurred during the mid-1980s and early 2000s when the U.S. dollar experienced declines of around 25% to 30% following such valuations. Based on this, Goldman Sachs expects a similar scenario to unfold in the coming years. One of the key structural factors fueling this anticipated correction is the portfolio composition of global investors. Specifically, non-U.S. investors hold about $22 trillion worth of assets in the United States, roughly one-third of their total portfolios.Half of these investments are unhedged against currency risk, which could lead to sharp fluctuations in the currency markets if investor sentiment shifts. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that even a modest reallocation of global capital away from U.S. assets could significantly lower the dollar’s value. Therefore, they view the dollar’s gradual yet sustained decline not as a temporary fluctuation, but as a long-term structural trend.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Stock Market Waiting for a New Stimulus?!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index continues to move upwards towards the specified supply zone, one can look for further Nasdaq short positions with a risk-reward ratio. Last week, financial markets experienced a brief sigh of relief as U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to ease tensions by signaling a limited retreat in the tariff war with China, sparking hopes for reduced friction. However, this optimism quickly faded once it became clear that Trump’s retreat was neither substantial nor impactful. From Beijing’s perspective, the trade war has transcended economic concerns, becoming an issue of national pride and sovereignty. As a result, China, the world’s second-largest economy, is not retreating as easily as Trump anticipated. This stance has evolved into a significant challenge for the White House. U.S. officials indicated that tariffs of 145% could be reduced within two to three weeks if an agreement is reached. Nonetheless, according to Chinese authorities, negotiations have yet to even begin, raising doubts about Trump’s negotiation tactics. Additionally, other concessions, such as reducing tariffs on American automakers, remain uncertain, and Trump has even threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian car imports. This environment not only fails to clarify U.S. trade policy but also deepens uncertainty for domestic businesses. Although the White House claims it is monitoring markets closely and Trump is eager to strike deals with key partners, these assurances have not alleviated concerns about the future of the U.S. economy. In the upcoming week, critical economic data could either intensify or ease current worries. On Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence Index for April and the JOLTS job openings data for March will be released. The highlight, however, will be the preliminary estimate of GDP growth, scheduled for Wednesday. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts a 2.2% annualized contraction in the U.S. economy for Q1 2025. Meanwhile, a Reuters survey of economists projects a modest 0.4% growth rate, a significant slowdown from Q4’s 2.4% growth. Accompanying these reports, the ADP private-sector employment data and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will be published. The core PCE for March is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.1% and an annual rise of 2.5%, down from 2.8% previously. Personal spending is anticipated to maintain its 0.4% monthly growth, reflecting resilient household expenditures. Additionally, on Wednesday, the Chicago PMI and pending home sales figures will be released. Thursday will bring the Challenger layoffs data for April, but market focus will be on the ISM manufacturing PMI, expected to drop from 49 to 47.9. The week’s main event will be Friday’s release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Forecasts suggest job growth will slow from 228,000 in March to 130,000 in April, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. Wages are projected to rise by 0.3%.If NFP and PCE data come in weaker than expected, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in June could intensify, although the likelihood of a cut in May will remain low. Such data would likely be bearish for the U.S. dollar but could support equity markets if recession fears do not dominate sentiment. Some Federal Reserve officials have suggested that if economic conditions deteriorate significantly, rate cuts could start as early as June. Currently, the Fed has maintained high rates to combat inflation but may lower them to support growth and prevent a sharp rise in unemployment if necessary. Trump’s trade wars pose a dual risk of increasing inflation while hurting employment, complicating the Fed’s monetary policy strategy. Presently, the Fed is in a “wait-and-see” mode, but several officials indicated last week that cuts could begin if economic data worsens. Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, told CNBC on Thursday that the Fed might lower rates starting in June if signs of economic weakening due to Trump’s sporadic tariffs appear. Christopher Waller, a Fed Board member, stated on Bloomberg TV that he could foresee rate cuts if the labor market collapses but does not expect such a scenario before July. On Thursday, Waller remarked, “It would not be surprising to see an increase in layoffs and a higher unemployment rate, especially if major tariffs return. I would expect faster rate cuts once signs of severe labor market deterioration emerge.” These comments highlight the Fed’s current dilemma as it awaits clearer evidence of significant economic fallout from Trump’s trade wars. The Federal Reserve’s mandate is to maintain low inflation and unemployment levels. Its primary tool, the federal funds rate, influences borrowing costs across the economy. The Fed can stimulate growth by lowering rates or curb inflation by raising them. Economists warn that Trump’s tariffs present the risk of simultaneously driving up inflation while damaging employment, forcing the Fed to prioritize which challenge to address first.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
AERGO Structure Has Turned Bullish (1W)After 1428 days, AERGO has powerfully reclaimed a major zone. In addition to reclaiming this area with strength, it has swept the liquidity pool, meaning there are no more liquidity magnets left below the chart. It has also completed its core CH (Change of Character) and cleared an important zone. Considering the time range it has spent in correction, we have identified the targets on the chart. We are looking for a buy around the green zone. A weekly candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
Long
by behdark
2
BTC Is Still Bullish (4H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section Bitcoin is still struggling with the supply zone we identified in the previous analysis. It has not yet been able to establish itself above this supply area. A slight correction is expected, with support anticipated from the green box. The closing of a 4-hour candle below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
6