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Pivot Points

US500 - Will the stock market go up?!The index is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, we can look for the next Nasdaq buying positions with an appropriate risk-reward ratio. The channel breakdown and the index entering the supply zone will provide us with its next selling position. The chief economist at Citigroup has stated that the imposition of tariffs in the United States constitutes a stagflationary shock to the economy. According to his estimates, there is a 40% to 45% chance of a recession. It is expected that GDP will increase in the second quarter, as consumers rush to make purchases ahead of the new tariffs. However, the most significant negative impact on U.S. economic growth is projected to unfold in the second half of the year. You may have noticed that recent economic statistics are no longer moving markets. The reason is simple: markets are forward-looking and trade on expectations rather than past data. Economic figures reflect what has already occurred, while market pricing focuses on what lies ahead. At this stage, current data has yet to fully reflect the impact of tariffs and trade tensions. Even if weaker numbers emerge, markets may have already priced in the potential resolution of the trade war and an eventual recovery. Experienced traders understand that today’s developments are already factored into prices. What matters now is the outlook for the coming months—the real driver of market direction. Ryan Petersen of Flexport noted yesterday that, three weeks after the U.S.imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese imports, bookings for ocean freight containers have dropped more than 60% industry-wide. He explained that the U.S. imports around $600 billion worth of goods annually from China, with those items valued at approximately $2 trillion at the retail level. He stated that the first ships carrying goods fully subject to the new tariffs arrived on Monday, and shipping volumes are expected to decline in the coming weeks. However, due to high inventory levels, the impact on the retail sector may be delayed. Petersen also expressed concern that a potential rollback of tariffs could introduce a new set of challenges. With ships currently being repositioned globally, a sudden wave of new orders could disrupt logistics networks—especially if markets perceive the suspension of tariffs as only temporary. In my view, no one really knows how this situation will evolve, as a large portion of imports consists of intermediate goods and components used in final products. My guess is that this could lead to a surge in transshipment and even smuggling, though it could just as easily echo the unexpected consequences seen during the COVID era. We are truly venturing into uncharted territory. Petersen concludes: “This is a strange era for global logistics, as we must simultaneously prepare for the unimaginable—like full U.S. self-sufficiency—while also planning for a return to something closer to normal trade relations.”
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Ali_PSND
ARB Secondary trend. 24 04 2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days (less is not necessary). ⚠️ Currently a decline from the maximum of -90% . For assets of such liquidity, these are not the lowest values, but perhaps the previous hype played a role in this. Work from the average price, or on a breakout , and you will not care when the reversal occurs. The main thing is to distribute the entry and exit points after the purchase in advance, that is, distribute the risk and profit. And, after that, no longer be interested in the asset, or opinions, or fictitious positive / negative news to stimulate demand / supply of “stupid money”. Do not get stuck in market noise and unnecessary, fear-driven or greed-driven opinions. Main trend (the entire history of cryptocurrency trading), for clarity of pricing and the zone for work now, which is discussed. ARB Main Trend 24 04 2025 🟣 Local trend. At the moment, a wedge-shaped formation has formed in it, there is an attempt to break through it and the price is clamped. 1️⃣ If this zone of minimums is held — for a start, the potential for a downward trend of the secondary trend (shown with a red line). 2️⃣ Then, when it is broken through , — to the channel median (green dotted line).
Long
by SpartaBTC
ARB Main Trend 24 04 2025Logarithm. Time frame 1 week. Previously a very hyped coin, "killer" of something there... Now - the dominant opinion is that this is a scam, a scam, "whales are selling now", and so on. It's funny to look at all this and how the opinion changes with the price. Crypto is a mess, there are no other words... That is, now is the time to take a closer look at the asset, and the start of the set. If the price drops to lower values ​​(shown on the chart), from the position of the trend, and potential percentages of the pump, the price is now acceptable, and the profit will be significant, but not "hamster". Set adequate goals, fix in parts as the trend develops, protect your profit. When there is an aggressive pump "with a stick", by a large %, - completely exit the asset, or protect the profit with a stop. There is a small probability that an asset of such capitalization, and the unrealization of "buy a candy wrapper", will be knocked down in advance before the full 3rd alt season of this cycle, without distributing "prospects" on the "revival of faith". ⚠️ Now the decline from the maximum is -90% . For assets of such liquidity, these are not the lowest values, but perhaps the previous hype played a role in this. Work from the average price, or on a breakthrough and you will not care when the reversal occurs. The main thing is to distribute the entry and exit points after the purchase in advance, that is, distribute the risk and profit. And, after that, no longer be interested in the asset, or opinions, or fictitious positive / negative news to stimulate demand / supply of "stupid money". Do not get stuck in market noise and unnecessary opinions driven by fear or greed. 1️⃣ If this zone of minimums is held — for starters, the potential for a downward trend of the secondary trend (shown with a red line). 2️⃣ Then, when it is broken , — to the channel median (green dotted line). 🟣Local trend At the moment, a wedge-shaped formation has formed in it, there is an attempt to break through it and the price is clamped.
Long
by SpartaBTC
1
DXY Long to 100 off bullish news from Trump 1. Current Data and research Macro Regime Business cycle - moving into recession territory. S&P is down from 6125 to 4842 at its lowest. That's a 21% drop - this crosses the 20% drop threshold. Inflation - Headline 2.4%. Slightly above 2% target. Core PCE is at 0.4%. This is higher than expected. Monetary Policy - Still at high interest rate levels of 4.5%. There's more room for cuts than hike in general. However, Tariffs is a spanner in this logic as it introduces inflation that needs to be controlled, and limits the cuts. Growth - Consumer sentiments - 50.8. This is a drop from 57. Not a good sign for confidence in the US markets Central Bank Outlook - Forward Guidance & Policy Path - "Wait and see" approach to see the full effects of the tariffs and will tackle. Unlikely to cut rates quickly due to inflation risks from tariffs. Flow & Positioning Factors - LDN and NY opens List of upcoming data German PMI - today US PMI - today Expectations German PMI - 47.5/50.3 - Unsure, but doubt there will be a huge surprise to the upside US PMI - 49.3/52.9 - Expect a downtrend here and close to the 49.3. It will invalidate longer-term trades if there's a huge surprise to the downside US Unemployment claims -NA -Expecting higher Bullish arguments - More pumping by Trump to prop the market up while the fundamentals are still likely to bad as tariffs are still there Bear arguments - The tariff is still the biggest elephant in the room and nothing has changed there. If anything, China has taken steps to prepare for a worse response in the future if US does not reach a negotiation. 2. Trade Thesis Directional Thesis I am expecting DXY to go back up to 100 due to a temporary strength in the USD from the good news for Fed Powell and Trump backing down in tariffs. Supporting Logic - Structural -- The DXY was holding 100 level before the Powell news. -- If the current news stays status quo, I expect prices to rise back up to that fundamental level after a brief pullback from 99.4 to 99.2 -Tactical A significant lower-high pivot point set on H1 chart. I need prices to remain above that 99 level. If it drops below, then the tactical levels do not work. - Flows Look for entry at either LDN or NY session open Expected Path - Pull back to 99.0 and now slow ascend back to 100 - There's a resistance level at 99.6. That would be TP1, and 100 would be TP2 Invalidation Logic - Fundamental Invalidation -- Trump tweets another fire Fed -- China escalates the trade war -- US PMI has a huge downside surprise (unlikely) - Price-Based Invalidation -- Price breaking below 99 Asymmetric Setup If I enter at 99.1X, this is a potential 1:4R trade with high confidence Trade Setup Entry level - 99.1 to 99.2 Scale-in plan (if any) - I can enter full size here Position sizing - 1% of account TP zones - TP1 - 99.6 - TP2 - 100 - TP3 - 101 (significant psychological level) Time stop Kill trade if a) Prices drop below 99 b) Prices do not bounce to the upside within 2 hours of LDN and NY open
TVC:DXYLong
by yuhaocooper
$UVXY to $100+Unfortunately many of my charts were removed by a moderator for having private indicators on them (which I didn't realize was a thing), so I have to repost them. If we look at the chart, we broke out of a bull flag and are now testing a very strong support level. You can see we've bounced off of that level multiple times. I think we bounce off of this level again and continue higher from here. I have no clue what the cause for this move will be, but it looks like we're set for a large move up to the $98-106 resistances with possibility for an extended move up to the top resistances. Let's see how it plays out over the coming weeks. Key dates and levels on the chart.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by benjihyam
2
$BTC cycle projection. Upside to $134k-$160k, then to sub $33kHere's a chart of my cycle projection of bitcoin. I think it's likely that we find support in the $62k region over the next couple of weeks and then continue the bull run up to $129k-$137k. In terms of gains from here, I think BTC is only a ~2x, however, I think we're going to see our biggest altcoin run since bitcoin's inception. After we hit the top $134k-160k, I think we'll make a very large correction back down to the $20-30k region (supports on the chart) before the next long term cycle begins. This is the final wave of the first cycle of bitcoin. Lots of money to be made.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by benjihyam
8
$Total3 alts about to go on their biggest run yet to $2.2T+I know everyone's been extremely down on crypto because alts have been down, but the chart looks very bullish from the lows. As you can see, we've been consolidating in a channel and it looks like we're set to fall to the $448B - $581B region. After we find support there, we'll start the biggest leg of the cycle thus far. I think it's very likely that we'll make it up to the $2.2T region during the next run. For context, the entire crypto market is sitting at $2.5T right now. That means alts alone should nearly equal the entire crypto market by the end of this cycle. However, there's a possibility that the cycle can extend higher to the upper resistances as well. Let's see how it plays out over the coming years. Lots of money to be made on the upside here. This run will be the equivalent to getting into bitcoin early.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by benjihyam
3