The June CPI, South Africa, And Another Trial In Precious MetalsGold was sitting around the $1825 on Friday, July 16. Silver was over $26, platinum was near the $1140 level, and palladium was around $2700 per ounce. All four of the precious metals that trade on the COMEX and NYMEX divisions of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have been trending higher over the past years. Gold and palladium reached all-time highs over the past year.
The June CPI comes in on fire
The inflation data is not a validation of “transitory”
Passing a bullish baton from one sector to the next
South Africa is on fire- Precious metals supplies could decline- Another trial begins this week
The next leg up for gold, silver, platinum, palladium and other PGMs could be on the horizon
Precious metals tend to rise in inflationary environments as the economic condition erodes money’s purchasing power. The tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus has increased the money supply exponentially over the past year. Rising money supply weighs on fiat currency values. While all four of the precious metals are below their highs for 2021 and over the past years, the path of least resistance for prices on a long-term basis remains higher.
When it comes to gold, every substantial price dip has been a buying opportunity over the past two decades. The current environment suggests that it will continue. Moreover, the recent events in South Africa, a leading gold and platinum group metals producer, could put additional upward pressure on prices.
The June CPI comes in on fire
The June Consumer Price Index rose for the third consecutive month posting a 5.4% increase in June. Excluding food and energy, it was 4.5% higher, the most substantial gain since September 1991. While the Fed and other analysts blamed one-third of the rise on used car and truck prices, any consumer knows prices are rapidly rising. The Fed continues to view the data as “transitory.”
The market’s reaction continues to be another indication that the central bank will roll out plans to taper quantitative easing and schedule liftoff from the zero percent short-term Fed Funds rate. However, one factor may make any move by the central bank moot.
The inflation data is not a validation of “transitory”
The Fed Chairman and the Secretary of the Treasury believe that inflationary pressures are “transitory,” blaming the data on pandemic-inspired bottlenecks in the supply chain. However, with Congress discussing another $3.5 trillion in spending, even if the Fed tightens credit, the government’s stimulus tsunami continues to flood the financial system.
The CPI data and rising retail prices are the price tag for the stimulus and tidal wave of central bank liquidity that began over one year ago.
Passing a bullish baton from one sector to the next
We have seen inflationary pressures rise in markets across all asset classes. The economic condition erodes money’s purchasing power. The stock market has risen to all-time highs. We witnessed parabolic moves in cryptocurrencies earlier this year. While Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many other cryptos halved in value from the April and May highs, they remain far higher than at the end of 2020 and many times the price levels at the 2020 lows. In commodities, gold rose to a record high in August 2020. While the yellow metal corrected, it continues to consolidate at above the $1800 per ounce level at the end of last week. Silver rose to its highest level since 2013 when it probed above the $30 level in February before correcting. Platinum rose to its highest price since 2014 before moving lower. In May, palladium, along with lumber and copper, reached all-time highs. Rhodium, a platinum group metal that only trades in the physical market, reached almost $30,000 per ounce this year.
Grain prices rose to eight-year highs earlier this year. Sugar and coffee reached multi-year peaks. The latest sector to move to the highest level in years was energy as the nearby NYMEX crude oil futures contract traded at $76.98 per barrel on July 6, the highest price since 2014. Natural gas moved to $3.822 per MMBtu on July 6, the highest price since late 2018, with ethanol at an over seven-year high and coal prices at the highest price in a decade.
The raw materials asset class has been passing the bullish baton from sector to sector in an inflationary relay race over the past year. Bull markets rarely move in a straight line, but the trends remain bullish, reflecting the rising inflationary pressures.
South Africa is on fire- Precious metals supplies could decline- Another trial begins this week
After another attempt at a rally, precious metals sold off at the end of last week. The prospects for higher interest rates push the US dollar higher, which tends to be bearish for the precious metals. However, gold remained above $1800 per ounce, silver is over the $25.50 level, platinum was at $1100, palladium was around $2.640, and rhodium was at a midpoint of $19,100.
At the March 2020 lows, gold found a bottom at $1450.90, silver fell to $11.74, platinum reached $562, and palladium fell to $1449.90 per ounce. Rhodium declined to $2000 per ounce.
South Africa remains a leading producer of platinum group metals. 72% of annual platinum supplies come from South Africa, along with 36% of palladium, 82% of rhodium, 81% of ruthenium, and 87% of iridium. Ruthenium and iridium are other platinum group metals that trade in the physical market. While South African gold production has declined over the past year, the country still produced around 99.2 metric tons of gold in 2020.
South Africa is currently facing the worst political violence since apartheid ended 27 years ago. Violent riots and looting in the aftermath of the jailing of former President Jacob Zuma are gripping the country. Persistent poverty and the global pandemic’s toll have only exacerbated political violence and upheaval. As South Africa faces the potential for a civil war, precious metals production could suffer over the coming months and perhaps years, creating the PGM shortages and limiting gold output from the mineral-rich nation.
Meanwhile, the greener path for energy policy only supports the demand for platinum group metals. As supplies from South Africa may decline, the demand will continue to grow, putting upward pressure on prices. Rising inflation and the South African political landscape support all precious metals prices.
Meanwhile, this week, two traders accused of felony-level crimes in the precious metal markets go on trial in Chicago. Federal District Court Judge John Z. Lee will preside over the trial of John Pacillo and Edward Bases. The pair last traded for Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Mr. Bases had traded precious metals for Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Bear Stearns, and Merrill Lynch since the 1990s, while Mr. Pacillo has an equally long resume. A jury at the most recent Chicago trials of two Deutsche Bank traders, John Vorley and Cedric Chanu, returned guilty verdicts. Both were sentenced to one year in prison. Bases and Pacillo pleaded not guilty to the charges. A jury of their peers will decide their fate this week. More traders, including three from JP Morgan Chase, await their days in court.
While the trials and sentences will not impact precious metals prices, trader’s behavior will change as a prison cell, and lifelong branding as a felon is a far cry from the comforts of a trading room. I ran one of the leading precious metals dealing desks in the 1980s and 1990s and know some of those charged, including Mr. Bases. I will save any comments for after the accused have their days in court.
The next leg up for gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and other PGMs could be on the horizon
Platinum group metals suffer from illiquidity on the futures exchange. The lack of visible stockpiles and the supply versus demand equations in the PGMs does not allow for robust futures or forward markets. Less liquid commodities tend to experience far higher volatility levels. Lumber is one of the least liquid futures markets. The price of wood from the $251.50 level in April 2020 to $1711.20 one year later in May 2021. At the end of last week, the price was below $550. Traders call markets like lumber roach motels as market participants can get into long or short risk positions but getting out when the market moves in the opposite directions can be more than a challenge. Platinum and palladium futures quality as roach motels.
Meanwhile, increasing demand for PGMs because of the rise of environmentally friendly energy policy supports their prices. The upheaval in South Africa may only exacerbate upside price action if supplies decline. When it comes to gold, every dip over the past two decades has been a buying opportunity.
The quarterly chart highlights the bullish price action in gold and the pattern of higher lows and higher highs that began in 1999 at $252.50 per ounce. Gold may have corrected from the August 2020 $2063 high, but the price action remains in bullish mode from a long-term perspective.
Silver is a highly speculative metal that attracts herd behavior when the price begins to trend. In 2020, silver traded in an $18.175 range from low to high. So far in 2021, the trading band has been only $6.61, with silver making a marginally higher high and higher low. When precious metals embark on the next leg to the upside, silver is likely to have a magnetic pull for a herd of buyers.
Rising inflation and the political landscape in South Africa are bullish for precious metals. While the US Federal Reserve may pivot to a more hawkish monetary policy stance, government stimulus shows no sign of slowing. It may only be a matter of time before the precious metals sector takes the bullish baton in the inflationary relay race that has been underway since the 2020 bottoms.
Use the links below to sign up for free early access to new posts and register for the free Monday Night Strategy Call.
Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
Platinum
Long on Impala PIatinum (IMPUY) - Quick Play 15, 16-ish to 20!After Impala Platinum Holding Ltd. has been held down all of these years, its time for the company to return to where it belongs... way, way up.
While I would love to talk about returning to all-time-highs of 40++, why not just get in while the market is at a low around the next resistance point of 15 or 16, and then ride it to at least 20 for a casual 20-25% gain.
Financials are healthy, so why not ride these guys out!
Once you have your 20-25% gain locked in at 20, I would even reconsider doubling down and seeing how many resistances it can break as we keep going higher!
How long will it take... let's talk about it!
💨𝙋𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙪𝙢 𝙁𝙪𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚 - Long Term 🐂 Trend🌊 𝙋𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙪𝙢 𝙁𝙪𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚 (𝙋𝙇1!) — 𝙀𝙒𝘼
The senior wave degree is borrowed from the counting of the structure for gold and silver , which have a much longer history of quotations. The second slide shows how the correction, presumably the fourth wave of the “Supercycle” degree, is taking place in most metals, and the commodity market as a whole.
Further, taking into account the fact that the upward wave from the orthodox top (IV) is a single zigzag, it is correct to make an assumption about the formation of the ending diagonal (V) , within which wave III unfolds.
PL1! : 🕐2W
Wave ((A)) in the composition of III of (V) must also take the form of a diagonal . At least, the double zigzag that has passed from the end of wave II , in the context of the senior degree, can be interpreted as the first subdivision in its composition.
PL1! : 🕐1D
The first targets at 38.2% in wave (2) have been reached, the double zigzag W-X-Y of (2 ) looks complete. Growth is expected to resume by the intermediate wave (3) , the minimum targets for which are to go beyond the top of wave (1) .
PL1! : 🕐4h
The wave marking in the double circle parenthesis corresponds to the green marking in the circle on the chart.
XPTUSD About to confirm a bullish break-out.Pattern: Bullish Megaphone on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the RSI broke above its Lower Highs trend-line. For a stronger confirmation you may wait for either a break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) or the Lower Highs trend-line of the price since the February 16 High.
Target: Either the 5.0 or 6.0 Fibonacci extension.
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
!! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> Ether2020
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
USDZAR 2021The USDZAR pair is currently sitting in the consolidative blue triangle. As long as the DXY remains below 92.800 and platinum stays above $1015, I expect the pair to complete an ABC corrective pattern.
A break above the 200-week MA rate of 14.59 could however see the pair move into the range between 15.50 and 16.00.
The fundamentals that drove the rand stronger in 2020 and the first half of 2021 are still present. SA is still holding a healthy trade surplus, the rand still has strong carry trade appeal and commodity prices remain stable. I remain doubtful that the FED will taper their minimum $120 billion in asset purchases this year despite their recent "hawkish" monetary policy stance.
China's credit impulse has recently turned negative which could weigh on commodity price growth in the next two quarters but the news that China cut their reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points earlier today has me remaining bullish on commodity prices (Chinese credit expansion will support commodity demand).
BYRG Platinum & Rhodium Mining RevivalOTC:BYRG Buyer Group International, Inc.
Rhodium Price 2013: $1,000
Rhodium Price 2021: $29,000
Revival and funding of BYRG has been taking place for the past couple months. Back in 2013 they're claims had a $1.3 BILLION valuation when Rhodium was only $1,000 per ounce. Currently today Rhodium is worth $29,000 per ounce and has become one of the most sought after precious metals. They also have Uranium and Platinum assets in the same location. There is only 1 other company successfully mining and producing Platinum in the USA and that company is Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) out of Colorado. NYSE:SBSW is currently trading at $16.83.
Updates have been appearing on OTCM which means the CEO is getting the company on the correct direction. I have reached out to the CEO David Bryant many times and he is aware of the current changes going on in the OTC marketplace and he is working on getting BYRG pink current by the deadlines. He is doing everything by the book and taking the appropriate steps to become PINK CURRENT.
Updates:
5/13/2021 - OTCM updated the share structure with a TA verified signature
5/14/2021 - New officers updated:
David A. Bryant - CEO
Nancy Bryant - Secretary
5/16/2021 - BYRG Authorized Shares Reduction: Reduced from "unlimited" to "50 Billion"
(seeing these updates, share structure reductions, shows they are cleaning up for a great future)
6/17/2021 - Company profile changed on OTCM: "Buyer Group International Inc is a development stage company targeting acquisition opportunities in the commodities space with recurring revenue streams to maximize share holder value"
All the steps have been taken to achieve a "verified profile" and to start seeing filings for BYRG.
As you can see from the daily chart, BYRG has been trading at very low volume but still following a strong trend upward. Between volume and the accumulation you can tell this is locked and people know what they are holding. In my opinion I think this will still look cheap when it hits multi pennies. We should see further updates and filing VERY soon.
A Turn in the Platinum Miners? Part 2 - NHMGiven the weakness in the platinum miners and resource stocks in general in the last few weeks, it takes some bravery/optimism/fondness for punishment to start nibbling at long positions.
Some resource stocks, and platinum miners in particular, are tilting bullish. Same as the related idea on JSE:IMP , with JSE:NHM :
- Golden cross & bullish confirmation on 1D MACD
- Start of bullish divergence on weekly MACD
- On Weekly: Crossed 5EMA and heading towards 15EMA
- On Daily: Crossed 5EMA & 15EMA, and 5EMA is threatening 15EMA cross.
What do you think - bottom in? Looks like a reasonable risk reward trade if you keep your stops tight. I'm looking to enter at R226 (i.e. waiting for slightly more directional confirmation before entering) with a stop at R217, target R253 ... 3:1
UC
A Turn in the Platinum Miners? Part 1 - IMP JSE:IMP Given the weakness in the platinum miners and resource stocks in general in the last few weeks, it takes some bravery/optimism/fondness for punishment to start nibbling at long positions.
Some resource stocks, and platinum miners in particular, are tilting bullish. on JSE:IMP :
- Golden cross & bullish confirmation on 1D MACD
- Bullish divergence on weekly MACD
- On Weekly: Crossed 5EMA and heading towards 15EMA
- On Daily: Crossed 5EMA & 15EMA, and 5EMA is threatening 15EMA cross.
What do you think - bottom in? Looks like a reasonable risk reward trade if you keep your stops tight. I'm looking to enter at R246 with a stop at R239, target R271 ... 3.5:1
UC
South Africa (EZA) a good Precious Metals playPrecious metals (PM) have really struggled this week, with the following weekly movement in USD:
Gold TVC:GOLD -5.65%
Silver TVC:SILVER -7.17%
Platinum TVC:PLATINUM -7.2%
Palladium TVC:PALLADIUM -8.23%
All these PM’s seems to be heavily oversold over the shorter-term, which could see a bit of a recovery over the next week or two. Why is this important? Currently 24% of EZA consists of PM’s, which was the main reason for the recent pullback in the ETF. EZA finds itself at a strong support level and very close to EXTREME OVERSOLD levels according to its 14-day RSI. Should $48.50 not hold up, my stop loss would be at the 200-day Moving Average (EMA). This currently is $46.86. Should we see a bounce off the current levels, could see EZA test the 50-day EMA at 51.29 resistance, with a break and close above these levels, most probably bringing back new 12-month highs. I am somewhat worried about the negative recent momentum and will monitor closely
PLATINUM XPTUSDIf #platinum drops to $1114 level which is 0 FIB. RET. then it will be an extreme oversold. Considering industrial shortages and inflationary environment this metal should rebound very fast. Current sell off does not make any sense. Just recently #platinum was outperforming both #gold and #silver
XPTUSD – bearish continuation …07 June, 2021While Gold had been rising, Platinum has been on a decline recently. It did make a multi-year high on 16 Feb but fell back right away. Recently it has been consolidating within a channel and on Thu last week , it broke out impulsively below it. Friday’s price action was choppy (check out H4 chart) and I see it like a pullback to the channel bottom. I anticipate a bearish continuation in this metal with targets located at $1128 and possibly $1000 area.
As always, watching the price action on a lower time frame before committing to a trade is advisable.
If you like my analysis, please give it a “thumbs up” and follow me to get immediate notifications.
Always use sound money and risk management in all your trades.
Platinum cant hold support levelsSeveral support levels has failed in Platinum, now testing a declining triangle. Commodity futures should be up because of the pressured fed rates and shortages in supply. However hit in the car manufacturing industry is pressuring platinum levels as well. Platinum prices were above gold and palladium before pandemic and is expected to catch up at some point. However we need to see a definitive price turnaround for that.
Platinum Futures at a Crucial Threshold The price of Platinum is currently trading near a major make-it-or-break-it point, whose further development entails excellent trading opportunities.
On the one hand, the breakdown of the price below the lower boundary of the Flag and the 100-day MA (in blue) signifies a potential correction to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
On the other, the Stochastic RSI suggests that the market is oversold. Given that the price is also consolidating above the 23.6% Fibonacci at present, bulls can use this as an indication that the market may have already bottomed out. Hence, they can look for an opportunity to enter long right away
PLATINUM bounces over the support 🦐After the attempt to break the recent highs Platinum started a descending movement inside a counter channel.
The price, which is moving inside a major ascending channel, reached the support area over the lower trendline.
According to Plancton's strategy if the conditions will be satisfied we will set a nice long order.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Platinum could fall to 1000After the short-lived spike above 1300, Platinum fell to 1100. A rise began from this point and a new attempt to conquers 1300
However, the rise is corrective and we can expect a new leg down soon.
From a technical perspective, Platinum is trading at 1200 at this moment and is under the trend line support of this channel.
Bears hold the upper hand now and rallies above 1200 should be sold.
1k important support could be the medium-term target and a daily close above 1300 would negate this scenario