EURPLN - a surprising interest rate cutA very surprising cut of interest rates at today's one-day MPC meeting, without a press conference, may have its impact on the future of the Polish zloty.
In recent days, the EURPLN exchange rate has come close to potential support located at the previous highs in the area of 4.39-4.41. Additionally, a simple correction labeled as "abc" could appear on the chart.
If the reduction of the reference rate from 0.5 to 0.1 percent along with a rather interesting technical arrangement at the same time could affect the market, then the EURPLN exchange rate could move at least to the line drawn along the recent tops.
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Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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Pln
USDPLN - the near end of the correction?After the zloty's sharp appreciation against the US dollar on 26 May, the market seems to be able to complete the full corrective structure labeled as abc. This is a typical simple correction, where wave c may be equal to wave a. One to one pattern is at 3.99 PLN.
Also in this region the previous tops and the lower limit in the trend channel are located, which could also be treated as a support area.
If this area is defended and the USD/PLN exchange rate remained above 4.00, it could be possible to return of the exchange rate to the upper limit in the trend channel.
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Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
USD/PLN About to Drop by ThinkingAntsOk🔸 WEEKLY CHART EXPLANATION:
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🔸 Price is on an uptrend, however it has formed a double top pattern with the previous max level.
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🔸 We observe that the level could not be broken, and, if we go to a lower timeframe, we see some bearish signals.
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🔸 It has potential to reach the Ascending Trendline.
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🔸 Will look for a lower timeframe Bearish setup.
🔸DAILY CHART ANALYSIS:
ridethepig | PLN Market Commentary 2020.02.19The outflows from Poland have been staggering to say the least, large sharks abandoning ship before the storm reaches shore. Notice how the NBP (National Bank of Poland) has been dovish even though inflation ticks higher ...everything is fine right...
We traded the PLN devaluation versus CZK previously, now I prefer EURPLN longs as my 'weapon' of choice. There is room for a leg into 4.3075x and 4.333x as the extension.
Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. An important round of G10 and EM macro FX charts coming over the next few sessions ...
EurPln Buy Short term Hi All ,
An interesting trade setup on this pair , Using the W1 chart , we can see price is still inside a bullish range , we don't need to be dramatic about the long movement , so patient with this pair should give us some well deserve reward . It's not a day trade , however re-assessing price action below the trendline is necessary if price fails to continue the bullish range leg .
Sl marked and we adjust only when price move in our direction to entry or above .
many thanks .
USD/PLN Long Scenario Activated by ThinknigAntsOkDAILY CHART ANALYSIS:
Price is on a strong bullish trend, moving inside an ascending channel. It has been making a corrective movement, but it has recently broken the descendin trendline of the correction, so, we expect a bullish movement from here. Will look for a lower timeframe bullish setup.
WEEKLY ANALYSIS:
EUR/PLN will continue to move lower in the following days toward𝔹𝕖𝕗𝕠𝕣𝕖 𝕪𝕠𝕦 𝕣𝕖𝕒𝕕 𝕥𝕙𝕚𝕤 𝕚𝕕𝕖𝕒, 𝕡𝕝𝕖𝕒𝕤𝕖, 𝕔𝕝𝕚𝕔𝕜 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝐋𝐈𝐊𝐄 𝐛𝐮𝐭𝐭𝐨𝐧 𝕥𝕠 𝕤𝕦𝕡𝕡𝕠𝕣𝕥 𝕞𝕪 𝕨𝕠𝕣𝕜.
𝕀 𝕨𝕠𝕦𝕝𝕕 𝕒𝕡𝕡𝕣𝕖𝕔𝕚𝕒𝕥𝕖 𝕚𝕥.
The pair will continue to move lower in the following days toward its previous low. As the United Kingdom is about to depart from the European Union on January 31, a possibility of a new country leaving the bloc is increasing. A resolution calling for Poland to respect the rule of law was passed with 446 votes to 178 and 41 abstentions, warning the former communist party of triggering Article 7 (1) of the EU Constitution. The Polish government on the other hand, warned that increasing pressure from the EU and its meddling in the country’s affairs might result to Poland eventually leaving the bloc. Despite this, Brussels is trying to hold everyone after it backs Poland against Russian accusation that the country started the World War II. This was amid the warming relationship between Russia and the European Union, specifically with the EU de facto leaders French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
ridethepig | The ElementsFor this exercise we are going to use PLNCZK as an example and allow a live swing to be setup. The banquet is over for bulls in this case after sellers capped the highs on three separate occasions each time driving the price out. Next came the spike down in thin markets, algos on the sell side helping itself to clean the board. But then came this breakdown yesterday and the retrace banquet was over. The technical damage now ruefully done, with nothing left to defend for bulls as strong seasonal factors enter into play for CZK .
The correct method on this board is to punish buyers for losing the break and sweeping the lows at 5.825. All is going according to play; the ladder can easily be cleared. The advance lower is an illustration of how to spot a breakdown miles ahead of the crowd.
As soon as bulls shamefully abandon the highs in yellow, their fellow comrades begin to lose confidence. Yes, it is true as in life the same case with markets....whenever a retailer gets "delusions of grandeur", they then forget all about their fellow comrades and go overboard .
Smart money is spotting the change in direction, opening fire each time and pinging the price back down. Sellers now have the task of marching towards the recent lows while keeping an eye on any further rallies to add on pullbacks. This breakdown can hardly be more obvious as sellers have the immunity to attack by being "protected" from the 5.968x, 5.989x and 6.00x highs.
Good luck all those on the sell side here over the coming sessions, a well developed swing in play and highly recommend tracking if not trading it with live accounts.
Hope it helps.