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This Week in the Markets (October 3-7)October 3 (Monday) German Manufacturing PMI UK Manufacturing PMI October 4 (Tuesday) US ISM Manufacturing PMI RBA Interest Rate Decision October 5 (Wednesday) US JOLTs Job Openings UK Composite PMI US ADP Employment Change October 6 (Thursday) US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Australia Trade Balance UK Construction PMI Eurozone Retail Sales Canada Ivey PMI October 7 (Friday) US Nonfarm Payrolls Canada Unemployment Rate What You Need to Know This Week: 🔸 The RBA Interest Rate Decision is expected to remain at 2.35% 🔸 Estimates have the Nonfarm Payrolls to add 250,000 jobs into the market. 🔸 No major earnings report this week. More information on Mitrade website.
FRED:CE16OV
by Mitrade_official
SPY UVXY SHORT SALE VOLUME and PMIsShort sale Volume seen spiking on UVXY. Data releases today from Chicago Fed showing Economic activity Index slowdown: actual 0 versus consesnus 0.24, prior 0.29; and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index miss: -17.2 versus consensus -5 and prior -12.9. Dow Jones Industrial Average made yearly lows late last week and again today as it lingers at low 29K. Nasdaq and SPX lingering at their June/yearly lows. ***Please note: Projections shown with yellow dashed arrows are merely conceptual/quizzical, and not intended as an "idea" or a "call" of what's to come. Just observations, and considerations of possibilities.
CBOE:UVXY
by Linneaus
DXY versus Fed Funds rate and PMIsDXY shown here with macro harmonics, contrasted with historic Fed Funds rate and US PMIs. Fractal is taken loosesly for the circled areas, with the suggested path involving consolidation in the 115- 105 range. Hypothesis: as developed nations step in to intervene to prop up their currencies, by tightening (central bank rate hikes like we are seeing from BOE and Swedish Central Bank in the last week) and potentially tapping into their long end US Treasury reserves to purchase dollars ad buy back their own currency, as late last week's BOJ intervention suggests, DXY will consolidate but ultimately break up into the 119-low 120's before some cooling off. Noteworthy technical macro ascending channel with 4-5 confirming touches. ***Harmonics are merely noteworthy phenomena, and not intended or regarded by myself as predictive of future price movements in any way.
TVC:DXY
by Linneaus
Daytrading EURUSD the day after ISM Non-Manufacturing PMII made a backtest EURUSD and U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) finding a good opportunity going long the day after if Actual PMI is greater than Previous PMI. This is not a standalone strategy but a good piece of a puzzle before deciding to open my trade. This trade has closed this evening with 100 pips profit. my puzzle had today a lot of intersting pieces: 1. Advantage from the last ISM release matching with my backtest 2. USDOLLAR reached the fibonacci's extension 3. Chart 6E1!/DX1! close to a support 3. 30min chart. I setted my entry price after rebouncing twice from a double strong support (red lines = weekly and montly highs/lows) 4. Good bullish wedge pattern on EURUSD (1Day chart) 5. Expectation for rising interest rate tomorrow by ECB. I like trading with a so lot of opportunities
Long
by giancarlopagliaroli
China's Economy Crisis: What You Need To Know‍China is the world’s second-largest economy. If that doesn’t impress you, consider this: It has grown from a ragtag collection of state-owned firms to the world’s second-largest economy in just 35 years. China is now the world’s largest producer of goods, from smartphones to steel, autos to aircraft carriers. In 2017 alone, China produced almost as much output as the U.S., Japan, Germany, France and Britain combined. However, there are signs that China is heading for a recession. The country’s stock market has crashed twice (in July 2015 and again in January 2016), and Chinese investors have lost a lot of money as a result. There are many reasons that explain why an impending economic crash in China is imminent... China Has a Debt Problem China’s debt-to-GDP ratio (Private Sector) is now over 250%, which is extremely alarming. China’s debt problem is a ticking time bomb that could go off at any moment. As interest rates rise in the U.S., the cost of servicing the debt will become more expensive for Chinese issuers. If China continues to grow its debt at its current pace, it could easily become the next Greece or Argentina, where economic collapse is imminent. The Chinese government has tried to curb the rise in debt by tightening its domestic monetary policy. That caused the country’s stock market to plummet and its currency to depreciate. China’s aggressive money-printing has helped to fuel an emerging debt crisis that could trigger a global economic slowdown. In fact, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) says that China’s debt-to-GDP ratio has jumped from 150% in 2008 to more than 250% today. The Chinese Yuan Is Dropping Like a Rock China’s controlled currency is starting to depreciate. And that usually occurs before an economic crash. The Chinese yuan (also known as the renminbi) has fallen more than 7.7% against the U.S. dollar since March 2022. The yuan’s decline is partly due to the trade war with the U.S. China’s central bank has been intervening in the markets to prevent the yuan from declining too quickly. That’s caused the dollar to rise against other currencies. It’s also helped to fuel a rise in Treasury yields. A strong U.S. dollar is bad for American exports. But it’s also bad for China, since a strong dollar makes it more difficult for Chinese companies to compete abroad. China’s controlled currency is starting to depreciate. And that usually occurs before an economic crash. CNH1! Manufacturing Is Slowing Down China’s manufacturing PMI has been falling for months. In July 2018, it was 48.3, which is below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. A number below 50 is also considered to be “bad”, while a number above 50 is “good”. The PMI reading for July 2019 was 49.7. This may sound like good news for those employed in the U.S. However, it’s not. A slowdown in the manufacturing sector usually leads to a fall in consumer spending and a slowdown in the economy. That’s because reduced consumer spending leads to fewer sales and an excess of inventory or unsold goods. That often leads to a drop in GDP. China is Producing a Lot of Empty Buildings As an economic crash approaches, developers start to build a lot of empty buildings. That’s because people start to slow down their spending and are not prepared to make the necessary financial commitments. China’s ghost cities are the canary in the coal mine. These are cities where 90% of the buildings are either vacant or incomplete. Now, it’s interesting to note that China’s ghost cities were entirely vacant as recently as 2010. At that time, few people would have predicted that China would build an entire city and have no one living in it. China's shadow banking problem is a major concern for the Chinese economy. Shadow banking refers to financial services provided outside of the traditional banking sector. These include weaker institutions such as peer-to-peer lending, pawnshops and informal lending networks. Shadow banking is often used to circumvent government restrictions on the traditional banking system, which can make it harder for the government to monitor and control the overall economy. Shadow banks are also more likely to lend to high-risk borrowers, fueling asset bubbles and economic instability. As a result, shadow banking has become increasingly important in China as the country's economic growth has slowed. Despite its importance, understanding shadow banking in China is difficult due to its complexity and lack of transparency. It is best to keep an eye on developments in this area as they could have a significant impact on the Chinese economy in coming years. China Consumer Confidence Index China Unemployment Rate Conclusion In the final analysis, there are many signs that indicate that a looming economic crash in China is imminent. Indeed, analysts expect that the country could be poised for a major economic slowdown in the near future. If this happens, it will have a negative impact on global economic growth. Investors should be careful about which companies they invest in and may want to avoid companies that are heavily reliant on the Chinese economy.
NASDAQ:MCHI
by EQTSHARES
98
EUR/USD: Bears regain control and revisit 1.0730 31 May 2022, EUR/USD comes under pressure following recent tops. Germany labour market report, EMU Flash CPI next of note. US Consumer Confidence next on tap in the US docket. Sellers seem to have regained the upper hand and now drag EUR/USD back to the 1.0730 region on turnaround Tuesday. EUR/USD meets resistance just below 1.0800 Following three consecutive daily advances, EUR/USD now retreats to the 1.0730 after climbing to new monthly highs near 1.0790 at the beginning of the week. The so far corrective move in the pair comes in tandem with the resumption of some buying interest in the greenback, as US markets slowly return to the normal activity following Monday’s Memorial Day holiday. The ongoing decline in the pair also falls in line with the knee-jerk in the German 10y Bund yields, which retreat to the 1.04% region on Tuesday. In the domestic calendar, the German labour market report is due seconded by the preliminary inflation figures in the broader Euroland for the month of May. Across the pond, results from the housing sector are due ahead of the Consumer Confidence print tracked by the Conference Board. What to look for around EUR EUR/USD’s bounce off 2022 lows near 1.0350 (May 13) has been so far underpinned by unusual hawkish ECB-speak leaning towards an initial rate hike as soon as in July, while the consensus view that the bond-purchase programme should end at some point in early Q3 has also lent legs to the European currency. In addition, the renewed selling bias in the greenback has also collaborated with the multi-cent upside in the pair, as investors appear to have already pencilled in a couple of 50 bps rate hikes at the June and July gatherings. However, EUR/USD is still far away from exiting the woods and it is expected to remain at the mercy of dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns and the Fed-ECB divergence, while higher German yields, elevated inflation and a decent pace of the economic recovery in the euro bloc are also supportive of an improvement in the mood around the euro. Key events in the euro area this week: Germany Unemployment Change, Unemployment Rate, EMU Flash Inflation Rate (Tuesday) – Germany Retail Sales, Final Manufacturing PMI, EMU Final Manufacturing PMI, ECB Lagarde (Wednesday) – Germany Balance of Trade, Final Services PMI, EMU Retail Sales, Final Services PMI (Friday). Eminent issues on the back boiler: Speculation of the start of the hiking cycle by the ECB as soon as this summer. Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro area. Impact of the war in Ukraine on the region’s growth prospects. EUR/USD levels to watch So far, spot is retreating 0.30% at 1.0741 and a breach of 1.0641 (low May 25) would target 1.0532 (low May 20) en route to 1.0348 (2022 low May 13). On the other hand, the next up barrier emerges at 1.0786 (monthly high May 30) followed by 1.0936 (weekly high April 21) and finally 1.0981 (100-day SMA).
by sniper_2022
Falling PMI, a good indicator?US PMI figures are falling from the peak 63.7 to 53.1, and many investors are concerned of a downturn. Its increasingly likely, but not yet... You can see that many major SP500 market declines didn't occur until the PMI figure reached 50; May 1998 , Oct 2000, Oct 2007. The last was Sep 2019 and the market kept rallying until Feb 2020. The trend is certainly worrying but the US economy may need to contract for some time before the market panics to new lows.
M
by MDavi
1
Long Scalp BTC May 04 2022We can see based on the yearly volatility, that the current expected movement is around 3.05% +- Our top is going to be 40k Our bot is going to be 37.5k From the technical analysis point, Volume was broken on the top side above 38000, so thats a strong momentum indication for long opportunity. At the same time we can see that on 15 min we got a long entry at 38200. I believe we can go towards 39k minimum From fundamental point of view We have the PMI release and later on today we have FOMC -> interest rate decision. This last movement is the one that bring the highest amount of volatility possible. So I strongly recommend you to be out of the position before that happens, and once the market stabilize and takes a direction, re enter again.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by exlux
2
Euro edges lower as German PMI misses markWelcome to the first trading day of 2022! The euro is slightly lower in the European session, trading around 1.1350. Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs for December pointed to growth across the bloc. France and Italy beat the consensus, while Spain and the all-eurozone PMIs were within expectations. The one disappointment was Germany, which came in at 57.4. This missed the forecast of 57.9 and was down from the November reading of 57.9. Supply constraints have hampered Germany's manufacturing sector and the pace of expansion has slowed significantly since the summer of 2021, when we were seeing readings in the mid-60s. Germany will release Retail Sales on Tuesday. This key gauge of consumer spending has struggled, posting back-to-back declines. Another decline in December would raise a red flag and investors could sour on the euro. Omicron cases continue to skyrocket, and although it is considered milder than other Covid variants, the sheer number of infected people is putting a heavy strain on health care systems worldwide. The US, Greece and other countries have shortened their isolation periods for infected people, and this could help cushion the economic blow from Omicron. We are likely to see a surge in Omicron cases in the coming weeks, but the critical question for the markets is how sick are those people who are infected. Market sentiment has been high despite the soaring numbers, on the assumption that Omicron is not as severe as previous variants and will not cause a severe economic downturn. If we don't see a surge in hospitalisation rates and a return to lockdowns, I would expect risk sentiment to remain elevated. EUR/USD has support at 1.1303. Below, there is support at 1.1232 There is resistance at 1.1456 and 1.1415
by OANDA
EURUSD Going up - PMI beats estimatesHello Traders Here is a new BUY Opportunity, Eurozone Preliminary Manufacturing PMI beats estimates with 58.5 in October 💹EUR/USD BUY STOP ✅ Entry @1.16450 or above ✅TP-1# 1.16650 ✅TP-2# 1.16960 ✅TP-3# 1.17450 ✅SL# 1.15350 Source: www.fxstreet.com JamdeJam will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this channel including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals
Long
by jamdejam
3