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USD / CHF – ANALYSIS OF THE BIG PICTUREMy analysis today deals with how the further course of our most popular forex pair "USD / CHF" could look. > The technical analysis and selected indicators, confirm the thesis of an imminent rise. = Why, that I explain after the introduction. The DXY / USD has a non-negligible impact on USD / CHF, as the whole economy depends on its behavior, and it directly competes in composition. > Meanwhile, this seems to take a run-up, for a final upswing, which could put the currency pair under massive selling pressure. > Regardless of these selling pressures coming from the USD, USD / CHF has arrived at a very strong support, which suggests a rising price. In the following, the analysis goes into detail, so that the significant levels and areas are known to you. For this purpose, I have performed a "MULTI-TIME-FRAME" analysis, which refers to the higher time units (month & week) and thus makes the big picture visible. Normally all time units below "1h" are called noise, but even a - 1h-4h - analysis is of no use to you, if the knowledge about the big and whole is missing. > We traders know that no one can predict the future, and that is exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations. > If the DXY should rise again, that means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets. > This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture. > Which levels are RELEVANT, I have explained in detail in the following pages. Table of contents 1st part = INTRODUCTION 2nd part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS = Monthly - Time frame = Weekly - Time frame 3rd part = CONCLUSION PART ONE "INTRODUCTION" After "USD/CHF" formed a top at USD 1.015 in October|2022, a sharp sell-off has been unleashed thereafter. > This sell-off continued until the beginning of February, where we encountered serious support for the first time. > The sell-off was fueled by its base currency, the USD, which also experienced a sell-off. > Since the USD, showed signs of a possible bottom, this was reflected in the pair under consideration. > In recent weeks, we have seen an increasingly weaker sell-off, which I believe suggests a rise. = We have worked off the HTF Fibonacci - 0.786 - and saw a strong reaction. = The volume profile of the last 2-years, supports the current bottom with a strong area. = The "DAILY" - MACD + RSI - both show divergences, which further strengthens the rise thesis. > Once you look at the DXY (USD index) at the higher time levels, the further sell-off in the traditional markets becomes even more likely. (My DXY analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes). SECOND PART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS For the analysis of the higher time levels, I proceed according to the onion-skin principle. > MONTH - level > WEEK - level > DAY - level These are divided into > SUMMARY > CHARTS The charts are presented in logarithmic scaling, as the given information can be visually presented in a more harmonious way. (This also refers to Fibonacci levels.) 1st MONTH – Time frame SUMMARY The trend channel shown in the chart, in turquoise, was formed since 1985 and has been able to maintain itself as a legitimate trend channel since then. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market. > The share price is at the decade-old resistance line and had challenged it over the past months. The trend channel shown in the chart, in earth color, formed since 2008 and directed the sideways movement that has existed since then. > The price is between the middle and support line of the channel. The trend lines shown in the chart, in purple, formed in the 80s and turned out to be excellent resistance or support areas. > The price bounced the last time in 2015, which was reflected in an extreme reaction. The trend lines drawn in the chart, in earth color, formed in the 90s and turned out to be excellent resistance or support areas. > The price bounced the last time in 2018, which was reflected in an extreme reaction. If we go into more detail about the "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones, you can look at four "DEMAND" + "SUPPLY" zones on the chart. > The "DEMAND" zone 1, is STRONG = followed a Strong movement. > The "DEMAND" zone 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement. > The "SUPPLY" zone 1, is STRONG = followed a strong movement. > The "SUPPLY" zone 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement. The Fibonacci retracements should serve us as additional confirmation, and have been taken into account in past movements (last decades). > FIB 1 | will serve as a very strong resistance should the price attempt another run up. > FIB 2 | are the possible targets that come into play in the event of a further sell-off. (LIGHTLY weighted) > FIB 3 | are the possible targets that come into play on another sell-off. (MEDIUM weighted) > FIB 4 | are the possible targets that come into play in the event of a further sell-off. (STRONG weighted) Some levels of interest are in front of us, which in the last months + years, played a strong role for the market. > The currently most relevant - POIs are | 0.90 & 0.95 | already represented an important brand since the year 2011 and thus currently take a very strong role. > The other POIs are by no means to be neglected and will play a role for the price development in the coming days, weeks and months. (Therefore, take your time and transfer the ones that are relevant for you into your chart). OVERVIEW CURRENTLY RELEVANT CHARTS Overall picture without POIs + without FIBONACCI Overall picture without POIs Overall picture without FIBONACCI ATTENTION In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. . 2nd WEEK – Time frame SUMMARY Besides the already mentioned trend channels + trend lines, others become visible. > These have caused reactions in the chart in the past and should therefore be kept in mind. The monthly "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones are joined by others from the weekly view that coincide with other resistance / support elements. > The "DEMAND" zone 1, is MEDIUM STRONG = followed a Strong movement + combination with Monthly "DEMAND" zone 1. > The "SUPPLY" zones 1, is WEAK = followed a weak movement. > The "SUPPLY" zones 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement + combination with Monthly "SUPPLY" zone 1. As further Fibonacci additions, we have two more elements: > Both newly drawn elements can be combined with the previously mentioned elements. Lastly, I would like to draw your attention to the "MARKET STRUCTURE BREAK": > These represent relevant resistance areas and reinforce the "TARGET ZONE 1". CHARTS Overall picture Overall picture without FIBONACCI Overall picture with TARGET ZONES THIRD PART CONCLUSION "The market is always right." As far as forecasts and analyses are concerned, everyone gives free rein to their opinion. > Depending on the analyst's past success, he or she is believed to a greater or lesser extent, but only one can always be right. In summary, based on technical analysis, there are strong reasons for a rising USD/CHF rate. > Since the price top in October|2022 - the monthly candles have been dominated by bearish. > A possible break of the support elements is not impossible, but rather unlikely. > The divergences in the daily RSI + MACD, suggest a bullish movement. For this reason, I expect a strong USD/CHF exchange rate and a strong USD and an accompanying bloodbath in the traditional and crypto markets. > Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = LONG. If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea. Thank you and happy trading! ZIEL IST DIE AUTARKIE | THE GOAL IS SELF-SUFFICIENCY
Long
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
EUR/CHF - LONG - ANALYSIS + EXPLANATIONThe "EUR/CHF" has been in a downtrend since March – 2021, and it is obvious that we can expect a trend reversal if necessary. > The EUR is the base currency of the pair and has suffered greatly from the USD (DXY) appreciation. > The CHF is generally seen as a security, which is why the EUR is losing out to them. --> Once the USD (DXY) shows signs of corrective behavior, I personally expect a significant upswing. = What this upswing might look like, I'll let you know in the following lines. Table of contents - 1st part = CURRENT STATE - 2nd part = TARGET ZONE PROPERTIES - 3rd part = CONCLUSION PART ONE Since the end of July until today, a formation has formed, which is also known as the "Head&Shoulders - pattern". --> This is formed in the EUR/CHF "OVERCOME", which is usually ended with a "Bullish" breakout. --> The neckline (breakout line) of the pattern, is located at the resistance line (gold-spiked), which has formed since March / 2020. Thus, it can be concluded that if the pattern breaks out "successfully", we will also break the resistance line. After the break of this resistance line, the following sequence of events would be possible: 1. SHORT-TERM TARGET = 1.618 FIB -> 0.98977 2. TEST = of the broken resistance -> conversion into support 3. TARGET = TARGET ZONE 1 SECOND PART "TARGET ZONES" are drawn on the chart, all of which have "concentrated" resistance characteristics. 1. | TARGET ZONE | 0.99718 - 1.00000 | points RESISTANCE - CHARACTERISTICS - "MSB" (Market Structure Break) | March/2022 LL. - "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 0.328s | Created March/2021 - September/2022 - "POI" (Point of interest) = 1.00000 | Psychologically important resistance level - "MA" (Simple Moving Average) = 8-long | Monthly chart - "ICHIMOKU CLOUD" = Conversion line | Weekly chart + Baseline | Monthly chart - "VP" (Volume Profile) = GAP in the zone | Not much volume traded = little resistance. 2. | TARGET ZONE | 1.00879 - 1.01526 | points RESISTANCE - CHARACTERISTICS - "MSB" (market structure break) | HL of April/2022 - "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 0.618s + 0.65s | Created = May/2022 - September/2022 - "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 1.618s | Originated = 02/09/2022 - 26/09/2022 - "POI" (Point of interest) = 1.01000 | Psychologically important resistance - "MA" (Simple Moving Average) = 50-length | weekly chart + 200-length | daily chart - "ICHIMOKU CLOUD" = no resistance in the HTF (Higher time frame) time levels T / W / M - "VP" (Volume Profile) = small volume | not much past traded volume = little resistance to the upside . 3. | TARGET ZONE | 1.02391 - 1.02791 | points RESISTANCE - CHARACTERISTICS - "RESISTANCE LINE" | Created September/2021 (4x touches). - "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 0.75s + 0.786s | Created = May/2022 - September/2022 - "POI" (Point of interest) = 1.02500 | Psychologically important resistance level - "SUPPLY ZONE" = | Monthly chart - "ICHIMOKU CLOUD" = Cloud resistance | Weekly chart + Conversion line | Monthly chart - "VP" (Volume Profile) = Strong Volume | Much Past Traded Volume = Major Resistance. X. | POI ZONE | 1.03736 - 1.03936 | Points RESISTANCE - CHARACTERISTICS - "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 0.88s | Originated = May/2022 - September/2022 - "POI" (Point of interest) = 1,04000 | Psychologically important resistance - "SUPPLY ZONES" = | Daily + Weekly chart - "VP" (Volume Profile) = Strongest volume | Highest past traded volume concentration = Very large resistance. - "MA" (Simple Moving Average) = 50-length | monthly chart. - "ICHIMOKU CLOUD" = no resistance in HTF (Higher time frame) time levels T / W / M 4th | TARGET ZONE | 1.04839 - 1.05398 | points RESISTANCE PROPERTIES - "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 0.618s + 0.65s | Created March/2021 - September/2022 - "POI" (Point of interest) = 1.05000 | Psychologically important resistance level - "MA" (Simple Moving Average) = 100-length | weekly chart + 50-length | monthly chart - SUPPLY ZONES" = daily + weekly + monthly chart - "VP" (Volume Profile) = GAP in the zone | Not much past traded volume = little resistance to the upside. CONCLUSION You now know what the scenario for "EUR/CHF" could look like. The following conditions must be met: - DXY (USD) starts to CORRECT = pressure way fall for the EUR -> EUR more dominant than CHF - BREAKOUT of the H&S pattern -> OVERCOME the resistance line + successful back-test = transformation into a support line. - DEVELOPMENT of the individual ZONES and their relevant resistance properties. PS: + I have once taken the liberty to draw a possible "course", so you can see how it could run. + Many of the indicators described are not visible in the chart, so that a clear view remains. -> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I'd be "burning" to hear your take on the whole thing. If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review of it. Thank you and happy trading! For anyone who would still enjoy the other HTF and want to hide all the "noise" - following the weekly and monthly chart.
Long
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
BTC/USD - LONG SCENARIOS - ANALYSIS - DThe "BTC/USD" is in a downtrend since Nov – 2021, and it is obvious that we can expect a trend reversal if necessary. -> The coupling of traditional markets to BTC is very high because of institutional investors (example: S&P500 falls = BTC falls). -> I will analyze in more detail in today's post at which key areas we can expect resistance at a LONG. -> For this, we will look at the "BTC/USD" from the daily view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly charts. TABLE OF CONTENTS - 1st part = EXPLANATION - used indicators + levels - 2nd part = SCENARIOS - Pro + Con breakdown - 3rd part = CONCLUSION FIRST PART 1. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the move, which started in - Sep/2022 - and ended in - Sep/2022 -. -> 0.618 FIB = 21,013.91 USD | Pending processing -> 0.65 FIB = 21,163.44 USD | Pending processing -> 0.75 FIB = 21,630.75 USD | Pending processing -> 0.786 FIB = 21,798.97 USD | Pending processing -> 0.88 FIB = 22,238.24 USD | Pending processing -> 1.618 FIB = 25,686.93 USD | Pending processing > As "dotted" lines - drawn in the chart. 2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement, which started in - Aug/2022 - and ended in - Sep/2022 -. -> 0.618 FIB = 22,504.72 USD | Pending processing -> 0.65 FIB = 22,731.45 USD | Pending processing -> 0.75 FIB = 23,439.99 USD | Pending processing -> 0.786 FIB = 23,695.06 USD | Pending processing -> 0.88 FIB = 24,361.08 USD | Pending processing -> 1.618 FIB = 29,590.06 USD | Pending processing > As "dashed" lines - drawn in the chart. 3. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement, which started in - May/2022 - and ended in - June/2022 -. -> 0.328 FIB = 22,468.86 USD | Pending processing -> 0.618 FIB = 26,754.19 USD | Pending processing -> 0.65 FIB = 27,227.05 USD | Pending processing -> 0.75 FIB = 28,704.75 USD | Pending processing -> 0.786 FIB = 29,326.72 USD | Pending processing -> 0.88 FIB = 30,625.76 USD | Pending processing > As "solid" lines - drawn in the chart. 4. | DEMAND ZONES The demand zones formed at the beginning of the upward movement, thus they were created and in - June-Oct/2020. -> WEEK ZONE | 1 | = 29,282.36 – 32,399.00 USD | Pending processing -> DAYS ZONE | 1 | = 21,538.51 – 22,799.00 USD | Pending processing -> TAGES ZONE | 2 | = 23,671.22 – 25,211.32 USD | Pending processing -> DAY ZONE | 3 | = 29,944.10 - 32,399.00USD | Pending processing -> 4 HOURS ZONE | 1 | = 22,182.93- 22,794.61USD | Pending processing -> 4 HOURS ZONE | 2 | = 23,111,.04- 23,600.00USD | Pending processing > As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart. 5. | POINT OF INTEREST | The points of psychological interest, were created the first time Nov - 2017 - and showed some reactions since then. -> POI | 1 | = 22,600 USD | Pending processing -> POI | 1 | = 28,000 USD | Pending processing -> POI | 2 | = 30,000 USD | Pending processing | POI should be used as support in the upcoming situation. | POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact support. > As "Orange" line - drawn in the chart. 6. | SIDEWAYS CHANNEL | The sideways channel formed at the last sell-off, in - May/2022. -> Range = 22.800,00 USD - 18.626,00 | Pending settlement SECOND PART As soon as the price reaches the broken down levels, we can expect a reaction from the market, which depends on the "weighting" of each level. 1. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 23,600-24,400 USD (momentum-dependent) What would speak for it: - "BREAK OF THE SIDEWARDS-TREND CHANNEL" + confirmation - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) = completely worked off - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (2) = 0.786 - "SUPPLY ZONES | D1 (1) + 4H (1+2) = Drop-Base-Rally = WEAK + this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500! = DXY falls + S&P500 rises What is the argument against it: - "BREAK OF THE SIDE DOWNTREND CHANNEL" + without confirmation. - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (2) | 0.618+ 0.65 FIB" - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (3) | 0.328 FIB" - "POINT OF INTEREST (1) - "SUPPLY ZONE | D (2) = rally base drop = STRONG - Entire AREA - marked with "RED ZONE" = very strong resistance - need enough momentum to break it and stay above it. All levels plotted on this screenshot: 2. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 27,500 – 30,000 USD (momentum dependent) What would speak for it: - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | Worked down to the 1.618s - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (3) | 0.328s = Pending - "SUPPLY ZONES | Worked down to the W (1) + D (3) = Outstanding - Liquidity Pools - Uptrend line serves as resistance - Test from last market structure break + this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500! = DXY falls + S&P500 rises What is the argument against it: - All AREAS - marked with "RED ZONE" = are very strong resistances - we need enough momentum to break this and stay above. All levels drawn in on this screenshot: CONCLUSION What the exact scenario for "BTC/USD" will look like is impossible to say at the moment. The correlation relevant for us to make decisions is as follows: - DXY (USD) is currently like a kind of indicator of fear in the market, with which it controls the S&P500. - The S&P500 is currently at a very relevant level (3,600 points), if this breaks sustainably (with confirmation), we will see a strong sell-off in all markets - market crash! (for this please look at my SHORT SCENARIOS version to get the relevant levels). - If this market crash does not happen, then all markets will go into a "recovery rally". The traditional market will also pull the crypto market up with it. - If this market crash does occur, then it will also have a significant impact on BTC. (Liquidation cascades of stop loss orders and fear from retail market participants.) -> The marked levels should all realize a reaction, which are dependent on momentum. -> Once it is apparent that we have formed the BOTTOM, I will upload a detailed LONG execution. -> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I would be "burning" to hear your take on it all. If this idea and explanation added any value to you, I would be very happy to see a review of it. Thank you and happy trading!
Long
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
BTC/USD - SHORT SZENARIOS - ANALYSE – DThe "BTC/USD" is in a downtrend since Nov – 2021, and it is obvious that we can expect a further - final sell-off if necessary. -> The coupling of the traditional markets to the BTC is very high because of the institutional investors (example: S&P500 falls = BTC falls). -> In which key areas we can expect a local bottom, I will analyze in more detail in today's post. -> For this, we will look at the "BTC/USD" from the daily view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly chart. table of contents - 1st part = EXPLANATION - indicators used + levels. - 2nd part = SCENARIOS - pro + con breakdown - 3rd part = CONCLUSION FIRST PART 1. FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT . For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement, which started in - March/2020 - and ended in - Nov/2021 -. -> 0.786 FIB = 17,738.75 USD | Completed -> 0.88 FIB = 11,608.27 USD | Pending processing > As "BLUE + dotted" lines - drawn in the chart. 2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement, which started in - Dec/2018 - and ended in - Nov/2021 -. -> 0.786 FIB = 17,246.82 USD | Pending processing -> 0.88 FIB = 11,057.51 USD | Pending processing > As "BLUE" lines - drawn in the chart. 3. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement we take the movement, which started in - May/2022 - and ended in - Aug/2022 -. -> 1.618 FIB = 12,931.80 USD | Pending processing > As "orange" lines - drawn in the chart. 4. DEMAND ZONES | The demand zones formed at the beginning of the upward movement, thus they were created and in - June-Oct/2020. -> WEEK ZONE | 1 | = 9,825.00 – 11,720.01 USD | Pending processing -> WEEK ZONE | 2 | = 8,833.00 – 9,345.00 USD | Pending processing -> DAY ZONE | 1 | = 9,825.00 – 10,681.87 USD | Pending processing -> DAY ZONE | 2 | = 9,047.25 – 9,221.52 USD | Pending processing > As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart. 5. | POINT OF INTEREST | The points of psychological interest, were created the first time Nov - 2017 - and showed some reactions since then. -> POI | 1 | = 16.000 USD | Pending processing -> POI | 2 | = 14.000 USD | Pending processing -> POI | 3 | = 12.000 USD | Pending processing -> POI | 4 | = 10.000 USD | Pending processing | POI should be used as support in the upcoming situation. | POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact support. > As "Orange" line - drawn in the chart. SECOND PART . As soon as the price reaches the broken down levels, we can expect a reaction from the market, which depends on the "weighting" of each level. 1st | SCENARIO | BOTTOM - at around 16,000-17,250 USD (Unlikely). What speaks in favor of: - "BREAK OF THE SIDEWAYS TREND CHANNEL" - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.786 + 0.786 FIB" - "LIQUIDITY HUNT + this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500! = DXY rises + S&P500 falls What is the argument against: - "POINT OF INTEREST (1-4) - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.88 +0.88 FIB" - "USD (DXY)" = further depreciation - "S&P500" = recovery and no market crash 2. | SCENARIO | BOTTOM - at approx. 11,000-13,000 USD (Very likely) What speaks for this: - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.88 +0.88 FIB" - "POINT OF INTEREST (2-3) - "SUPPLY ZONES | D1 (1) + W1 (1)" - downtrend lines serve as support + this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500! = DXY rises + S&P500 falls What is the argument against: - "POINT OF INTEREST = Existing liquidity cascade (4). - "SUPPLY ZONE" = D1 (2) + W1 (2)" - "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation. CONCLUSION . At the moment, it is impossible to say what the exact scenario for "BTC/USD" will be. The correlation relevant for us to make decisions is as follows: - DXY (USD) is currently like a kind of indicator of fear in the market, with which it controls the S&P500. - The S&P500 is currently at a very relevant level (3,600 points), if this breaks sustainably (with confirmation), we will see a strong sell-off in all markets - market crash! - Should this market crash occur, then this will also have a significant impact on BTC. (Liquidation cascades of stop loss orders and fear from retail market participants.) = The marked levels should have large order blocks ready, which will consume this sharp sell-off within a short period of time . -> As soon as the BOTTOM formation crystallizes, I will upload a detailed LONG execution. -> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I'd be "burning" to hear your take on the whole thing. If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to see a review of it . Thank you and a successful trading! The following image should show you where the support line comes from:
Short
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
3
P2P | DXY - Lets Finish This...Alright guys and gals so I wanted to post this chart to detail the movement of the dollar index. For some time we've been bearish and following the downward Fib levels. I can see price making equal lows which tells me price could be attempting to turn around or just building up more buy orders to sell off! The small white trend lines you see are Turtle Soups, meaning price made a short high, and then that high was eventually taken out and continued lower. So my final level on my Fib is my POI, where I believe price will reach and immediately turn around. It's all about levels, price action, and time sequences. But as always everyone happy trading, trade well, and lets run it up from 2023 til infinity! You can continue to grow the page by liking and following the channel, and if you get any value from this to boost it too! DISCLAIMER ***This page is for educational purposes only and is not intended for any financial arise. I am not a financial advisor nor do I manage any other accounts for users. Any trades you take will be of your own doing and P2P will not be held responsible.***
TVC:DXYShort
by Pips2Porsches
USD/CAD - SHORT SCENARIOS - ANALYSE – WThe "USDCAD" is in an uptrend since May – 2021, and it stands to reason that we can expect a top soon if necessary. -> The USD is the base currency of the pair and should, shortly, enter a correction. -> At which key areas we can expect a Local Top, I will analyze in more detail in today's post. -> For this, we will look at the "USDCAD" from the weekly view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly charts. table of contents - 1st part = EXPLANATION - Used indicators + levels - 2nd part = SCENARIOS - pro + con breakdown - 3rd part = CONCLUSION FIRST PART 1. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement, which started in - March/2020 - and ended in - May/2021 -. -> 0.75 FIB = 1.40031 points | Pending processing -> 0.786 FIB = 1.40989 points | Pending processing -> 0.88 FIB = 1.43491 points | Pending processing > As "BLUE" lines - drawn in the chart. 2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the move, which started in - July/2022 - and ended in - August/2022 -. -> 2.618 FIB = 1.40258 points | Pending processing > As "PASTELL ORANGE" lines - drawn in the chart. 3. | SUPPLY ZONES | The supply zones formed at the beginning of the downward movement, thus they were created and in - March-May/2020. -> MONTH ZONE = 1.38502 - 1.46685 points | Pending processing -> WEEK ZONE = 1.38502 - 1.41409 points | Pending processing -> DAY ZONE | 1 | = 1.39686- 1.40488 points | Pending processing -> DAY ZONE | 2 | = 1,43750- 1,46685 points | Pending processing > As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart. 4. | POINT OF INTEREST | The points of psychological interest, were created the first time - in 2003 - and showed some reactions since then. -> POI | 1 | = 1.38500 points | Pending processing -> POI | 2 | = 1,40000 points | Pending processing -> POI | 3 | = 1.41000 points | Pending processing -> POI | 4 | = 1,46500 points | Pending processing | POI should be used as resistance in the upcoming situation. | POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact resistance. > As "TURKIS" line - drawn in the chart. 5. | VOLUME PROFILE | The volume profile describes the cumulative trading volume at each price level. In the analysis, the volume of the last "TOP" formation was analyzed. -> VOLUME ZONE = 1.40100 - 1.41100 points | Pending processing -> POC = 1.40500 - 1.40700 points | Pending processing | Point of Control - The price level with the highest traded volume. 5. | OLD MARKET STRUCTURE BREAK | The old market structure break, represents a psychological level because it was the decisive point in the last corrective move. | MSB = 1.38502 points | Pending processing PART TWO Once the price reaches the broken down levels, we can expect a reaction from the market, which depends on the "weighting" of each level. PLEASE NOTE - the USD is the base currency of the USD/CAD, so we are 100% dependent on the performance of the DXY. 1. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 1.38500 points (Unlikely) What speaks for this? - "OLD MARKET STRUCTURE BREAK" - "SUPPLY ZONES | W1 + M1" - "POI (1) + this idea must be supported by the DXY! What is against it? - "VOLUME PROFILE" = little traded volume. - "FIBONACCI" = between 0.618 - 0.75 FIB - "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation. 2nd | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 1.40000 - 1.41000 points (Very likely) What speaks in favor of this? - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) | 0.75 + 0.786 FIB" - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (2) | 2.618 FIB" - "SUPPLY ZONES | W1 + M1 + D1 (1)" - "POINT OF INTEREST (2) + (3) - "VOLUME ZONE - "POC + this idea must be supported by the DXY! What is the argument against it? - "FIBONACCI" = 0.88 FIB - "SUPPLY ZONE" = D1 (2) liquidity - "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation. 3. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 1.43500 points (Unlikely) What speaks in favor of this? - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) | 0.88 FIB" - "SUPPLY ZONES | D1 (2)" + this idea must be supported by the DXY! What is the argument against it? - "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation. CONCLUSION It is impossible to say at this time what the exact scenario for "USDCAD" will be. = Despite this, the key points I have presented, will most likely trigger a reaction. -> As soon as the TOP formation emerges, I will upload a detailed SHORT execution. -> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I'd be "burning" to hear your take on the whole thing. If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review. Thank you and happy trading!
Short
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
HP Bos vs LP Bos - Supply & Demand Trading Hello traders In this example, I will show you what HP BOS (break of structure) and HP POI (point of interest) look like, and on the right side you can see an example of low probability BOS (break of structure) and low probability POI (point of interest). BOS (break of structure) -Break of structure or BOS is the term used by traders, and it simply indicates a break of the recent structure We have 2 types of BOS 1. High probability BOS 2. Low probability BOS High probability BOS -You can see the high probability BOS on the left. The price impulsively breaks through the most recent structure, the momentum is present, and at the end, we see a good candle close, the price did not leave a big wick. Low probability BOS -You can see the low probability BOS on the right. The price barely breaks through the most recent structure, momentum is not present, and at the end the price leaves a large wick - the characteristic of a large wick is that the price no longer has momentum. POI (point of interest) - POI | Supply & Demand is the place where we want to sell or buy We have 2 types of POI 1. High probability POI 2. Low probability POI High probability POI -When we want to select the HP POI , we want to see that the momentum is present, as in the example on the left. The price did not leave a wick, it impulsively broke the high, and we see a nice closing of the candle. Low probability POI -When we see a low probability POI, we don't want to see that OB as a potential trade opportunity. On the right, you can see the low probability POI. The price has no momentum, it leaves a big wick which tells us that the momentum is weakened. I hope this example helped you to better understand the difference between high probability BOS & POI and low probability BOS & POI, if you have any questions, drop it down below.
Education
by hybridtradingfx
1
SPX neutral with a bias to the downsideAfter yesterday's drop that hit my 3770 target, we are holding near the weekly lows in discount. On the LTF the buying started in A/S sessions on through London session to take out some on the short term price imbalances. Last POI was a reaction off of a -FVG that can be seen on the 15m and 1H charts. We will need to see if the fresh +FVG (not noted but its there on the same charts), the A/S session range, the DO, or the TDO holds up, else we continue down for the day. There's even a +OB at the 2:30 candle on the 15m, so I'll definitely be watching out for these +POIs. The unemployment claim release at 8:30 is a good catalyst for a decision on the move today and that's where I'll be focused in on. The forecast is for higher claims and I am in agreement with that but I'll be patient in my bias. Terms: LTF: Lower Time Frame POI: Point Of Interest A/S: Asian Sydney session -FVG: Bearish Fair Value Gap +FVG: Bullish Fair Value Gap DO: Daily Open TDO: True Day Open +OB:Bullish Order Block
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by Cory4rex
WEEKLY FORECAST Looking at the current market condition, regarding positive cpi report which came lower giving EUR the push to the upside. now which looks to make a snd and snr patterns in the following week. despite all the efforts on the push to fight against Inflation is still quite brutal and would still push EUR against the dollar in the downside for long run. however its only analysis based on my sole view and not a recommendation to any typical position taking decisions. thank you
Long
by Lavimystic
1