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Bitcoin Consolidation in a Second Wyckoff Re-Distribution PhaseHopefully, everyone managed to have a great Memorial Day yesterday filled with a little bit of the normal we are all looking forward to returning. Looking at the Intraday Chart, the formation appears to remain solidly within a second Wyckoff Redistribution. After the Selling Climax (SC) at $8,640 established the floor of the Redistribution trade range, the Automatic Reaction (AR) turned north to $8,860 and established a prelim upper end of the trade range for this Redistribution phase. The formation turned downward again and performed a successful Secondary Test (ST) of lower end of the trade range at $8,680 before turning north again to signal a double top (a bullish signal in Point and Figure) at $8,860. The formation continued to push past the double top to signal a buy at $8,880 and confirm the buy signal at $8,900 before pushing higher and stalling out at $8,960 to establish the upper end of the new trade range at. The lower end of the new trade range would be the prior high at $8,860. Given we are in a Wyckoff Distribution phase which has yet to retest the lower end of the 1D (higher time frame) trade range, and the 4H Intraday trade range just exited a recent Redistribution phase, this confirmation to buy signaled at $8,900 would appear to be a false buy signal. Immediately after establishing the upper end of the new trade range at $8,960, the formation turned lower and broke through the lower end of the new trade range at $8,860, as the PA pushed down to $8,840 in a failed test of the trade range. The formation turned higher again, and pushed past the upper end of the trade range at $8,960 forming a double top (a bullish signal in Point and Figure), signaled a buy at $$8,980 and confirmed the buy signal at $9,000 on a perceived Sign of Strength (SOS). Again, the PA stalled after the buy signal was confirmed, the formation turned lower again, and broke through the lower end of the trade range a second time. It formed a double bottom at $8,840 (a bearish signal in Point and Figure), signaled a sell at $8,820, and confirmed the sell signal at $8,800. Given back to back Signs of Weakness (SOS), I would expect the high of $9,000 is an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) rather than a Sign of Strength (SOS). Currently, the formation has only $360 of cause built in from the consolidation in this second Redistribution range, which is insufficient to establish a decisive move in either direction. My expectation is this redistribution should play out in a similar manner as the prior Redistribution consolidation range, with almost as many candles in the horizontal congestion count before a move downward. The first Redistribution level had a horizontal count of 14 candles before sufficient cause was built up for a move down. The current Redistribution level has 6, so I would imagine we may remain here for another day or two before the next move. Looking at the 1D chart, after the PA flipped to a green candle, it pushed higher before stalling out at $9,000. The current price of BTC is $8,843 as of this writing and, unless the daily closes out above $8,840 (preventing a reversal), the formation will print a lower high on the 1D. My expectation is for the formation to print a lower high over the next few days. The formation still has a ton of room to run (up to $9,280) and can still print a lower high, although I see it as very unlikely while the PA is so strictly confined on the Intraday and signaling Signs of Weakness (SOW). Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin in a Second Wyckoff Re-Distribution PhaseHappy Memorial Day to those based in the US. I’m hoping for a fun day filled with BBQ and all the other requisites a lazy summer holiday should require. Hopefully, everyone managed to find a short position before the next Wyckoff Distribution leg took hold. Looking at the Intraday Chart, the Wyckoff re-Distribution range did not take long to play out. Once the Intraday trade range re-tested the earlier $9,300 Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) forming a double top (a bullish signal in Point and Figure) and failed to push past it, the double top then acted as a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) in the formation. In my post yesterday, I mentioned the target price for the downside based upon the formation was $8,740. The target price at $8,740 was realized yesterday as the price pushed down to $8,740 and beyond it to $8,640 in what could only be described as a Memorial Day Clearance Sale selloff – and formed a Low Pole on the chart. This suggested a Low Pole Reversal with a target price of $8,900 should come into play. The price rebounded to $8,860, but failed to advance beyond it, setting up a trade range between $8,860 and $8,640. It would appear we are now in the second Wyckoff Redistribution pit stop on our way down to the lower end of the trade range ($8,120) for the higher time frame (1D). My expectation would be the second Wyckoff Redistribution should play out very much like the first, however I do not expect an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) during this redistribution phase. Although if one did happen, it would fall within the bounds of normal expectation for a Wyckoff Redistribution. Remember, the Composite Man is always looking to reduce slippage while unloading their bags. There is insufficient consolidation currently on this chart to provide a target price using the Horizontal Method, suggesting the consolidation period still has some time to go. The Vertical Method suggests a price target of $8,520 should the price fall to $8,680, form a double bottom (a bearish signal in Point and Figure), and break $8,640. Looking at the 1D chart, after the PA flipped to a red candle, the PA pushed downward, formed a double bottom at $8,800 (a bearish signal in Point and Figure), then pushed to $8,780 sending a sell signal, before breaking through $8,760 and confirming the bearish PA. The Wyckoff Distribution on the higher trade range always takes longer to play out, but it gives us an idea of where things are going as we move towards the bottom of the trade range. Using the Vertical Method, the suggested target price on this distribution for this higher time frame is $7,680, which would align with the $7,720 floor I show as the next major support after the $8,120 lower end of the trade range. For reference, I never use the Vertical Method on higher time frames to determine price targets. It’s just my preference - not a statement on the method. Rather, I use the Vertical Method on the higher time frame to get an idea of where things are going and, in this case, to see if a potential move below the $8,120 lower trade range floor might be in play. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin in a Wyckoff Re-Distribution PhaseIt’s been an interesting 24 hours or so with Bitcoin as the PA has been largely confined to a very tight trade range. Much as it can suck waiting for a definitive move, patience is the better part of valor in these scenarios to avoid getting chopped up. Looking at the Intraday Chart, it appeared as though demand came back into the market and established an accumulation range between $9,140 and $9,300. Originally, I thought we might have entered a Wyckoff re-Accumulation phase. Yet the target price the formation was signaling ($10,000) seemed wrong, given the need to retest the lower end of the trade range ($8,120) before a potential Upward Thrust above $10,060 and the higher time frames were in the midst of a Wyckoff Distribution. In the comments section of my original post yesterday on reddit/Bitcoinmarkets, I mentioned my target entry was $9,340 for this potential breakout. My rationale for this entry was to be certain I received a confirmation of the breakout before jumping in. Let’s see how I came to change my position from Accumulation range to re-Distribution range. The first drop to the $9,300 level established Preliminary Support (PS). The subsequent drop to $8,800 on a Selling Climax (SC) established the lower end of this trade range, and the Automatic Reaction (AR) pushed the price upward to $9,140, which established the initial upper end of the trade range during this re-accumulation phase. After performing a Secondary Test (ST), the price pushed past the initial upper boundary of the trade range (as expected in Wyckoff Accumulation) and established a new upper end of the trade range at $9,260. Much like the original market analysis, these initial conditions remain the same. Shortly after, the formation pushed price past the newly established upper end of the trade range (at $9,260) to $9,300 before falling back to $9,140 and advancing again. Initially, I took this move as a Sign of Strength (SOS), yet after the subsequent retest the $9,300 high, the price behaved as resistance. This signaled a Wyckoff re-Distribution was underway on the Intraday, and the move to the $9,300 resistance level was an Upward Thrust (UT) on the re-distribution rather than a Sign of Strength (SOS). I would expect the distribution to continue in a relatively short period and would target a price under $9,100 for entry into a short position. The target price on the re-distribution is $8,740. Looking at the 1D chart, we can see the PA has flipped to a red candle which resonates with the re-distribution formation on the 4H Intraday. The Wyckoff re-Distribution range reflected on the 4H Intraday, has congruence with my expectation the formation will re-test the lower end of the trade range ($8,120) before to eventually have a final Upward Thrust to the $10,300 level. The current scenario I see (given the recent PA) is in the near term is a move to the $8,740ish range. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
2
Bitcoin Entering a Re-Accumulation Range During Wyckoff DistMy hope is most were positioned in a short for that drop to the $8,800, got a chance to cover and move into a long to enjoy some of the bounce once the bottom of the new TR was established. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, supply came into the market and pushed the price of BTC to a low of $9,300 before recovering to the $9,600 level and subsequently falling to the $8,800 level signaling a new re-accumulation range for the 4H Intraday. Before dissecting this a bit, let me be clear – on the macro level (higher time frames) we are decidedly still in the beginning stages of a Wyckoff Distribution seeking the lower end of the TR at $8,120. However, the Intraday is signaling a Wyckoff Re-Accumulation phase is underway. Think of this as the pause at the gas station for fuel and snacks before the larger Distribution continues. The first drop to the $9,300 level established Preliminary Support (PS). The subsequent drop to $8,800 on a Selling Climax (SC) established the lower end of this trade range, and the Automatic Reaction (AR) pushed the price upward to $9,140, which established the initial upper end of the trade range during this re-accumulation phase. After performing a Secondary Test (ST), the price pushed past the initial upper boundary of the trade range (as expected in Wyckoff Accumulation) and established a new upper end of the trade range at $9,260. Shortly after, the formation signaled a Sign of Strength (SOS) as the price pushed past the newly established upper end of the trade range (at $9,260) to $9,300 before falling back to $9,140 and advancing again. It seems after the Sign of Strength, the upper book ends at $9,140 and $9,260 are acting as support and resistance, suggesting entry into Phase D of the Wyckoff Re-Accumulation Phase, with a target price of $9,640. This would make sense because the upper trendline of the formation which started this larger Wyckoff Distribution is around the $9,640 range and would effectively re-establish Demand in this zone for the larger Wyckoff Distribution continue. Looking at the 1D chart, we can see the PA has pushed the price above the psychologically significant $9,200 range and no significant resistance is reflected until at least the $9,600 level. For the formation to flip bullish on the 1D, the PA would have to advance to the $9,940 level to signal a double top (which is bullish in Point and Figure), advance further to the $9,960 level to signal a buy, and break the $9,980 level to confirm. Despite the Wyckoff re-Accumulation range reflected on the 4H Intraday, this scenario (from my perspective) is highly unlikely at this time. While I expect the upper end of the TR to eventually have a final Upward Thrust to the $10,300 level, the current scenario I see in the near term is a move to $9,600 - $9,640 range before resuming the Wyckoff Distribution down to the lower end of the TR ($8,120). Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin Breakdown on Second Leg of a Wyckoff DistributionMuch like yesterday, my hope is that regardless of what Technical Analysis you use, either you were positioned short or sold at the top before the second leg down of the Wyckoff on the never-ending quest for the low end of the trade range at $8,120. Looking at the Intraday chart, the Low Pole Reversal first hit the 50% reversal target of $9,440 before pushing higher, flirted with $9,540 resistance, then pushed higher and fell short at the $9,600 resistance line. Once the price started to move north of the 50% reversal target in Point and Figure, that is a signal for those in a short position to sell or jump into a scalp long. For the formation to move into a bullish breakout at that stage, the price needed to advance to $9,860 on the Low Pole Reversal (Double Top at $9,820, Double Top Breakout at $9,840, and confirmation at $9,860). The price target on that bullish breakout would have been $10,300 which conveniently coincides with the next major resistance level above the trade range, and ultimately where I believe an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) will top out at as the Wycoff Distribution Phase continues. Instead, the formation moved lower through a second leg of Wyckoff Distribution. Yesterday I mentioned in a comment in the subreddit r/Bitcoinmarkets I took a short position at $9,540. The rationale was it was very close to a local support level, which was also reasonably close to the recent high from the Low Pole Reversal, a bearish bias was in play on the Intraday, and the R/R favored a short in that range. Once the formation moved down to $9,300 after the Low Pole Reversal, a Double Bottom was signaled (which is bearish in Point and Figure). The target price for the move should have been $8,300 . However, the PA stopped again after advancing 3 boxes, preventing a Low Pole formation from coming into play a second time, and kept the price above the psychologically important $9,200 support line. One thing to remember during a Wyckoff Distribution Phase is it never ends with a single candle down. The Composite Man is looking to unload their bags at the highest possible price to prevent price slippage. Looking at the higher time frame (1D) we can see the recent PA has pushed the low of the recent red candle down to $9,220, or about $20 above the $9,200 support line. The Parabolic SAR is still signaling bullish currently with a suggested buy of $8,179. The signals on the 1D all reflect bullish sentiment, and if you recall in my write up yesterday, I felt there was still a bearish bias. On a macro level that has not changed. However (and somewhat ironically), I would imagine we will revisit the $9,540 - $9,600 level before resuming the distribution downward towards test the lower end of the trading range ($8,120) to establish a Sign of Weakness (SOW) somewhere between $8,120 and $7,700. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin Breakdown on the First Leg of a Wyckoff DistributionAlways interesting times in the world of Bitcoin. My hope is that regardless of what Technical Analysis you use, either you were positioned short or sold at the top before the 3% correction earlier today. For about the last 16 hours or so, the 4H Intraday chart has been reflecting a price pinned beneath the upper trendline on increasing volume, while the lows have been pinned around $9,600 indicating a strong move was imminent. The failure to break the $9,840 price level on heavy volume signaled insufficient buyers in the market to push the Bitcoin price higher into breakout, sparking the first leg of the Wyckoff Distribution. Sometimes those bags can just get too heavy. The Intraday chart reflects a low price target of $9,260 should have been realized . In the end the bottom part of the new trade range was discovered at $9,300 or $40 above the target price, which is well within the delta I’ve experienced using the Vertical Count Method in Point and Figure. Also, $9,300 is a significant psychological support level. Once the breakdown went beyond $9,500 (three boxes below the prior low), a Low Pole Warning was signaled. A Low Pole Reversal generally results in a 50% retrace in the breakdown range from the prior low ($9,560) to the bottom of the breakdown ($9,300), which would have targeted a retrace to the $9,440 level. The Low Pole Reversal realized the $9,440 price target, stalled, and then pushed higher as shorts covered their positions. We are currently seeking the upper end of the new 4H Intraday trade range. I speculate it will be around the $9,540 level. If we look at a higher timeframe (1D) , the most recent high topped out at $9,940 which was the same level as the Secondary Test of the upper range of this Wyckoff Distribution. A double top (which is Bullish in Point and Figure) was formed which broke the upper trendline of the formation, suggesting bullish bias and the Parabolic SAR flipped bullish as well. While the signals all reflect bullish sentiment, I feel we will more likely test the lower end of the trading range ($8,120) and establish a Sign of Weakness (SOW) somewhere between $8,120 and $7,700 before retracing to the upper end of the trading range ($10,060) and possibly hitting $10,300 in a final Upward Thrust before completing the Wyckoff Distribution Phase. Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
A Closer Look at recent PAThe green arrow was a crazy dump, and we're now entering it's price box, so it's the first test of an area shown to have a ridiculous supply. That being said, volume is reducing, as price is going up...so Supply is being absorbed, a Bullish sign. I just posted about how I think we're at a key juncture....That post was about Gann Fan and it's findings....This is a PnF chart, helps reduce some of the noise. Watch the next large volume candle...should be quite telling.... As always, practice solid risk management, good luck, and have fun.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by mrjones2020
SPY - Daily Chart Candlestick AnalysisThe close on Friday left was appears to be a "Hanging Man" candlestick. With this occurring during an uptrend this could potentially be a bearish warning sign. We must wait for the confirmation of the CLOSE of trading on Tuesday to find out whether this candle is bearish or not. For confirmation to occur Tuesday's closing price must be below the LOW of Friday's real body. If the price does seem to be confirming a bearish signal then people who have long positions should look to take some profit off the table or close out their long positions entirely to better utilize their capital following a pullback or consolidation phase. If Tuesday's trading should close higher than Friday's real body then the bearish signal is canceled & expect more upside to continue. I labeled a few candlesticks from A to E which stuck out to me: A) The previous high made prior to the pullback. An important level to watch for future bullish breakouts which eventually occurred at the candlestick labeled D. B) This candle is an inverted hammer candlestick which was produced the day after a potential low was put in off high volume. This is a signal that the market may be turning bullish. C) A Doji candlestick was produced around the price level noted on candle A showing there is a battle going on about whether this area will continue to be resistance or if a true breakout will occur. D) A bullish engulfing candlestick formed after prices held both my initial price target level & a rising window area created from February 4th to February 5th. E) The candle produced on Friday was a "Hanging Man" which is a potentially bearish candlestick when formed during an uptrend. We need confirmation from the following trading day(s) to see if this is bearish or not. For bearish confirmation, the price must close below Friday's real body price. A close higher than Friday's real body negates its bearish connotations & shows that the bullish move will continue. I have also noted the numbers 1-7 on this chart. These label the current amount of new highs being created without a significant pullback occurring. The Japanese believe when trends run 8-10+ without a pullback you should be preparing for one. I note this because we have a potentially bearish candlestick from Friday & we are at a 7 on the current long count pattern. Price has currently risen past my initial price target & has found support around my second price target. If bullish momentum continues I am looking at my third price target around $346.50. It is important to note that the dotted blue line is my current P&F price target which still sits above my Fibonacci level targets (which I view as showing plenty of bullish momentum under the hood of this market). Overall, I am still bullish on SPY & the markets overall. Even if Friday's bearish signal is confirmed I would use that as a signal to take profits or closeout long positions you are not certain about. After the pullback/consolidation occurs it will provide us another opportunity at entering some strong names that may be a bit overextended at the moment.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Chartimistic
VLO - Support Held, Looking LongValero Energy has been consolidating since early December after a pullback. The support level from a prior high established back on April 25th continued to hold as the price is just starting to break out from the level established on November 2, 2018. A purple dotted line will mark where a previous break out attempt failed so all longs will want to see the price successfully take this level out. Note the bullish divergence with the stock price & the RSI since the stock has begun its consolidation from early December. The slow stochastic is exiting an oversold condition as well. As stated above I want to see the price get higher than the dotted purple line. Assuming it does that, I have my Fibonacci extension levels noted with the dotted green lines. The dotted blue line is based on a traditional P&F chart using a 3-box reversal along with a value determined from a 20-day ATR. Earnings are on January 30th BMO, so anyone planning on holding over a month should take that into account.
NYSE:VLOLong
by Chartimistic
SCHW - Looking Bullish Following Gap Up ConsolidationCharles Schwab gapped up back on November 21st, I believe that may have been related to the news that they were looking to buy TD Ameritrade. Since then, the stock has consolidated but managed to hold its gap level. The stock seems ready to exit an oversold condition while the RSI level held its 50 mark. The gap up in November has allowed a Golden Cross to occur on the daily chart as well. I have some price targets noted on the chart. The green lines are standard Fibonacci levels (61.8% and 100% levels). The light blue line is based on a dynamic P&F chart but the price coincides closely with the Fibonacci Extension 50% level as well & I love when multiple analysis seems to corroborate each other. There is still some potential resistance until around $50.20 but if the stock price can break through that level there shouldn't be much built up resistance ahead.
NYSE:SCHWLong
by Chartimistic
Long term investments - 2019: VEOLIA - VIELong term investments - 2019: This is a series of posts on long term investment for 2019. Every serious investor establishes a solid money management with a balanced risk factor. Investing 100% of your savings in forex or crypto currency is like make a blind all in at poker. So a key factor is to choose which asset allocation suites better for you and to found low risk investments on long term. This investment and assets suits my needs. Today choice is Veolia (VIE) group but could be other assets in Water Utilities. This is why: 1- The World Economic Forum ( WEF ) identified as major risky trend the "Changing climate" and "Degrading Enviroment". As a consequence, climate in south Europe (mediterranean area) is getting more and more dry. In this situation, water is a key factor and Veolia controls, directly or through stocks, many companies providing water utilities. In easy words: people cannot live without water and water is getting expensive year after year. 2- Technically speaking, the actual price is between a resistance and a support area identified in the chart. Once the price will break the area, stock could rise up to 21.890: wait! 3- Looking at seasonality charts (2015-2019), best moment to buy are January and July. 4- &r=2200&pnf=y]Point & figures identifie a rising support. If you like my ideas and scripts, please leave a feedback and follow me.
EURONEXT:VIELong
by 03.freeman
Stock of the Week: Alibaba Group (BABA)Local breakout after bullish behavior suggest further advance Wyckoff Story Upsloping price structure of HHs and HLs and decreasing supply signature from Phase A to D suggest accumulation. Breakout in Phase D out of the local Last Point of Support (LPS) suggests a possible breakout above $210 and a Major Sign of Strength to come. Relative strength is improving. Trading Target: $148 count line + (21 boxes * 3 reversal * $2 box size) =$274 Pattern Confirmation: Breakout above $210 Pattern Failure: Close below $165 Happy Trading, Roman
NYSE:BABALong
by Wyckoff_Analytics
1
IWM - Potential Bull Flag PatternThe Russell 2000 ETF has seen a price run-up since early October as it emerged from an oversold condition. The recent pullback has created what may be a bull flag (magenta trendlines) that is close to breaking out. The IWM also seems to be gaining some relative strength vs the SPX which should bode well for this ETF gaining in price. Upon further evaluation of this daily chart, I might also be able to make a case for an Ascending Triangle pattern (orange horizontal trendline + magenta rising trendline) or a "W" bottom pattern (black trendlines). Regardless of which pattern you accept, all of them are bullish in nature. I have labeled two potential price targets I am looking at using the Fibonacci Extension tool again. I used the 50% , 61.8%, & 100% levels for these price targets.
AMEX:IWMLong
by Chartimistic
AMD - A Breakout of a BreakoutAMD is breaking out of a small symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart. This follows after having broken out of a slightly ascending channel back on November 4th. The stock price is still surfing that 10-day EMA line as well. The EMA line is similar to where the top band of a Keltner Channel can be found confirming the strength of this bullish move. The stock is in an overbought condition both on a Weekly & Daily chart so entering at this time may require a tight stop but I am still aiming for that $40.20 level. A dynamic P&F chart provides a potential target of $41.73 for people who like to take a look at P&F targets.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by Chartimistic
Nasdaq Composite P&F count calls for 10,000 and above!1999 POINT AND FIGURE ANALOG 2,225 count line + (39 boxes*3 reversal*25 box size)=5,150 Actual intraday high reached on March 10, 2000 = 5,132 CURRENT POINT AND FIGURE CHART Campaign segment #1 target: 7,360 count line + (11 boxes*3 reversal *80 box size)=10,000 Campaign Segment #2 Target: 6,242 count line + (42 boxes *3 reversal *80 boxes)=16,232 Box size is defined as 1% of price movement at the time of a consolidation Free PnF charts & Wyckoff Method tutorial here: www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by Wyckoff_Analytics
JSE:CLS Clicks Large Potential UpsideUsing the Wyckoff Point and Figure methodology to predict potential targets of our previous analysis (see link below) there seems to be large upside potential. Using a 200 box size and 3 box reversal which is equivalent to a weekly chart we have a count of 38 bars. Therefore the potential is for a 38 x 200 x 3 = 22800 point rise. Taking it from the low 15721 we get a target of 38521. Using the countline 18893 we get a target of 41693. This leaves us with significant upside potential. After a retest of the breakout level, we could establish a good longterm campaign.
JSE:CLSLong
by SteynTrade