Potential BTC Distribution ZoneThe following VAs listed in the chart (left to right):
1. VA of current calendar year
2. VA of Wyckoff Distribution Top
3. VA of potential accumulation zone
4. VA of current and potential distribution zone
BTC is following a similar (granted smaller and faster) top pattern to the 2020 bull run and subsequent Wyckoff Distribution between 42K and 60K.
Buyers were unable to provide a liquidity shake significantly below 30K; the demand for 30K LP was larger than expected. Market makers accumulated a decreasing supply in the bottom of 3rd VA. The POC for the 3rd VA is almost identical to the POC for the current calendar year and confidence was built for a short-term intermediate move with short liquidations providing more potential upside.
I still have concern without seeing any relatively significant selling volume within the 4th VA, but would expect to see this in the upcoming days with a move down to 40-42K. I believe seller's ultimately will be unable to stay in control above 50K and the market will see impressive supply from underwater positions. In the long term, this will provide a key order block in a future more impressive buyer demanding market environment. Currently, the landscape while technically bullish does not appear to have any support from institutional buyers; with GBTC still being sold at a discount and whale wallets not clearly building position on-chain. My assumption is market makers will try to move the market price of BTC into a more value friendly zone between 18-25K.
In an effort to keep myself accountable and level headed, I believe this pattern is invalidated with any break above 50K and either explosive volume with high spread or consolidation above the current (4th) value area- in the 2nd VA.
Pointofcontrol
Short-Term Short - After that could go either wayThere's a good chance rejection at trend point of control (PoC) is confirmed and we get some kind of retrace from this prevailing bullish impulse that we've had.
If so, we are likely to come back down to at least the first point of support at which point there are a couple possibilities:
a) make a higher low and begin proper large-scale accumulation
b) make a lower low and return to PoC
c) slowly bleed as supply absorbs all demand as well as eating demand orders from the books -> breaking below horizontal PoC in the major support zone and finally capitulating into an extended bear market / accumulation period
Bitcoin long setup ! Bitcoin just had a swing failure pattern of the low, really nice.
I missed this due to work etc.
Now waiting for another low in the range. fib lines up with the daily (low of the range).
Will take a lon with a stop loss under the low. take profit in the middle of the range at the point of control
NQ using volume profile and point of control.I didn't take my good trade this morning. 60 points later, and now I'm doing some teaching to distract myself from chasing the market. Had the setup as perfect as I could make it, then I didn't take the trade.
All I can say is stick with it. I'm doing this all caffeine free at the moment so still in the easily forgivable period. If I'm missing trades, but also not trying to take over the world, that's a good exchange in my opinion.
Not taking the trade is great when the market is drawing in suckers, but when I do my setup properly, and I'm avoiding traps, I really ought to be pressing the button. It's all good to get some satisfaction from the setup process, but nothing changes if I'm not getting in and out of the market.
Bitcoin Volume Point Of Control"Volume Profile is an extremely valuable technical analysis tool that is used by traders everywhere. The key to Volume Profile’s continued relevancy is its versatility. It is a charting tool that truly does have a wide array of uses. Unlike many other studies, there is little to no debate about Volume Profile’s usefulness. The data that is provided by Volume Profile is indisputable, leaving it to the trader to find new and creative ways to use it. Even though in its simplest form, it is a great reactive method for discovering traditional support and resistance areas, traders are still coming up with ways to chart the indicator in predicative or proactive ways."
"Example strategy
Just like with most other tools or studies, Volume Profile has a number of uses. There are many trading strategies out there using Volume Profile as a key component. Below are the basics of one such strategy which is based on comparing the current day’s opening price to the previous day’s Volume Profile.
-If the current day opens above the previous day’s value area (but still below the Profile High) look for price to retrace back towards the Point of Control and then proceed to rise (the direction of the day’s open). Therefore during the retracement to the Point of Control, there is a buying opportunity.
-If the current day opens below the previous day’s value area (but still above the Profile Low) look for price to retrace back towards the Point of Control and then proceed to fall (the direction of the day’s open). Therefore during the retracement to the Point of Control, there is a selling opportunity.
-If the current day’s opening price is completely outside of the previous day’s profile (above the Profile High or below the Profile Low) this can be seen as a possible runner in the direction of the opening price relative to the previous day’s profile range."
The Point of Control is represented by the red line on the chart.
Practice Labeling Initiative and Responsive Price Action.Rounding out Chapter 1 of the book "Price Action Breakdown..." I am asked to label moves as initiative and responsive based on how the author has described initiative and responsive. From his perspective initiative is when buyers/sellers decide that price is no longer agreeable and take the initiative to move it up or down, hence the name initiative. Responsive is when price pokes out of a Value Area only to come back into it abruptly (see excess price/tails).
Another way to think of this would be trend continuation moves vs movement back towards control point. This lesson didn't really hit home for me. I still think the point of control is the most valuable bit of information I have gleaned from this book so far, but I am waiting to hear how the author will work initiative vs responsive into the context they are building. I can definitely see why traders are comfortable in the value area. Trading the initiative moves makes me feel like I'm about to get on a terrifying carnival ride and there's nothing to hang on to.
That'll do it for today.
Look at how EURUSD moves in New York sessionThis chart is meant to be studied.
Trades setups are for New York session.
This is more of an analysis of where price is likely to go, and then entry/exit is up to you.
The analysis is derived from five core concepts:
1. Each trading session (Asian, London, and New York) acts different and has a job
-Asian session tends to consolidate and trap traders in both directions
2. Each trading session interacts with the sessions around it
-Part of the analysis looks at the high of Asian session as a resistance zone
3. Price acts the same day after day
-A bullish engulfing bar will always represent buying pressure
4. Price interacts with places of high and low volume
-Part of the analysis uses volume point of control to find areas of interest
5. Price will move quickly in one direction, then slow down and reach exhaustion, at which point it will move in the opposite direction for an undefined amount of time
-A strong push to the upside will be followed by a pullback
Keep in mind nothing is correct 100% of the time. The key to long term success is risk management. If you take a loss, find out why, smile, and wait for another opportunity:)!
GBPUSD - LONG ENTRY PRICE - 1.38650Re-enter for long trade. Stop level under Demand Zone.
GBPUSD - LONG
ENTRY PRICE - 1.38650
SL - 1.37700
TP - 1.40800
Always follow the 6 Golden Rules of Money Management:
1. Protect your gains and never enter into a position without setting a stop loss.
2. Always trade with a Risk-Reward Ratio of 1 to 1.5 or better.
3. Never over-leverage your account.
4. Accept your losses, move on to the next trade and trust the software.
5. Make realistic goals that can be achieved within reason.
6. Always trade with money you can afford to lose.
Please leave your comment and support me with like if you agree with my idea. If you have a different view, please also share with me your idea in the comments.
Have a nice day!
GBPUSD - LONG ENTRY PRICE - 1.39350The impulse to the North continues to develop towards the target in the supply zone 1.40800. The price passes the 1x1 support line.
GBPUSD - LONG
ENTRY PRICE - 1.39350
SL - 1.38700
TP - 1.40800
Always follow the 6 Golden Rules of Money Management:
1. Protect your gains and never enter into a position without setting a stop loss.
2. Always trade with a Risk-Reward Ratio of 1 to 1.5 or better.
3. Never over-leverage your account.
4. Accept your losses, move on to the next trade and trust the software.
5. Make realistic goals that can be achieved within reason.
6. Always trade with money you can afford to lose.
Please leave your comment and support me with like if you agree with my idea. If you have a different view, please also share with me your idea in the comments.
Have a nice day!
XAUUSD $5,100 BUYING OPPORTUNITY 93% PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS10/18 WEEKLY IS IN THE BZ WITH A CTL BREAK BULLISH, WE ARE IN A RETEST PHASE
ON THE DAILY WITH THE MARKET STILL ABOVE THE WEEKLY TREND LINE I WILL BE
LOOKING TO BUY LOW PRICES IN THE BUY ZONE UP TO THE 2HR (1,942) AND
DAILY D (1,965) EXT RESPECTIVELY
PLAN OF ACTION
LOOK TO BUY CTL BREAK BULLISH WITHIN THE
CHANNEL PLACE STOP BELOW THE "A" OF THE
SWING TP AT THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL IF THE
MARKET REJECTS THE OR TRADE UP THE 2HR
D EXT 1,942 AREA POC IS AT 1,948 GET OUT
BEFORE THAT POINT (RETEST AREA) OF BEARISH
BREAKOUT
PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS 93%
BUY LOW OF CHANNEL
POS 93%
ENTRY: 2 HR CHANNEL BUY
NAS 100 TRADE UPDATE DECISION AREA LOOMING 10/3 NAS 100 REACHED CREATED A NEW DAILY "C"
POSITION AROUND THE 11600 AREA AND THEN
BROKE A TRENDLINE TO THE DOWNSIDE CREATING
A POTENTIAL HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN ABOVE
THE CHANNEL AREA THAT WAS FORMED ON THE 2HR
THE DAILY IS CLOSE TO THE SELL ZONE AND THERE
HAS BEEN A BREAKOUT SO GOING INTO THE NEW
WEEK I WOULD BE LOOK FOR A RETEST THEN A
REJECTION OF THE 11400 AREA TO DROP DOWN TO
THE WEEKLY .382 AREA AS A POSSIBLE LANDING
SPOT.
WEEKLY- UNDECIDED
DAILY- BEARISH
PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS 69%
Eyeing Up MKR/BTCInteresting 17 month long head & shoulders pattern developing on MKR. Target is 2x head to neckline measurement, that would also re-test the horizontal resistance and beginning of neckline from June 2019 high. Price otherwise looking for support from the VPVR Point of Control around 0.047, while RSI has broken back into neutral territory from bearish. CMF has flipped bullish.
USDJPY PENDING SELL TRADING OPPORTUNITY TO 99.20 9/30 THE ONLY PAIR THAT THE USD HAS BEEN STRONG AGAINST THIS WEEK IS THE JPY, THIS COULD BE FOR A COUPLE REASONS 1. THE MARKET IS IN CONSOLIDATION OR 2. THE JPY IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE USD AND THIS WEEK THE MARKET IS JUST RETRACING. WITH THAT BEING SAID THERE IS AN TRADING OPPORTUNITY IF YOU GET IT IN AT THE RIGHT PRICE AROUND THE 106.17 AREA WHICH IS A POINT OF CONTROL AREA.
WATCH THE VIDEO FROM MORE INFORMATION IF YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE let's START A CONVERSATION
EURUSD - Respecting Daily POCs & my entry levelsHello Forex Community!
Check out my intraday S/R zones, key levels and entry levels! Also check why I think that we can call EURUSD that is in a short uptrend.
EURUSD still respect daily POCs and create new one higher and higher, thats why EURUSD is in a short term uptrend.
More descriptions about my trading.
I am not patterns trader. My strategy and edge is looking for strong volume zones where Big players were trading. And if a market will come to this zones, I want to trade there again with them. So every day I prepare key levels and key zones and I am waiting when a market will come there.
📲In the chart you can see Long / Short levels into which I enter directly through the limit and then I control them based on the volume . If the market does not respect the level and starts to form a volume in the negative zone, I try to end the position at the breakeven point or stoploss. I set the Profit Target according to RRR or according to key levels and S / R zones. These levels can also be traded from the other side, support becomes resistance and vice versa.
❗️First of all, when I have the level ready, I have to set a Stoploss.
Stoploss is determined by several criteria. First of all, it must not be too far away and also it must not be in an area that serves as a magnet such as POC , Key Levels or a stoploss zone, where the market will run out of liquidity.
Summary:
Stoploss determined by.
✅1. Pivot High / Low
✅2. Logical zone according to VolumeProfile
✅3. Low Volume Node and High Volume Node
✅4. Outside of key levels
🎉 Management Rules:
✅When I see in negative zone 5 minutes whole candles ( for short level "over" the level for long level "below) I move my Take Profit to BreakEven point and I want to exit position on Entry point or my Stoploss.
✅ When 80% of profit is reached I am moving my Stoploss to BE point.
Hope it helps,
Have a nice day!
APHA- Vastly under-valued gemAs usual, Cannabis stock is facing the risk of regulation and black market.
After extensive sell-off starting in March 2019, APHA may have finally found its bottom at 2.
Short-term may be choppy, but I expect the uptrend to continue as long as the demand zone holds. .
EPZM - Young MARKET but strong LONG setup!Hi traders,
today´s market is very interesting for me because, during the analysis, I have found many confirmations for my thoughts.
I am expecting a LONG in the NASDAQ:EPZM market . INSIDERS increased their LONG positions and their behavior is confirmed by Price Action analysis.
What else do we need?
In the video, I focus on:
- Volume profile (Value Area)
- Point of control
- High & Low volume nodes
- Fibo retracement
- Support and Resistance levels
- Candlestick patterns
I hope you will enjoy the analysis.
Good trading.
Jakub,
FINEIGHT
Facebook STRONG SUPPORT level & How to see the structureHello traders,
very strong support level raises our chances for a profitable LONG trade in the FACEBOOK market. NASDAQ:FB
If you connect these points together, you will get the whole picture, what's happening in Facebook:
PINBAR
TRENDLINE
POINT OF CONTROL
ZONE
VALUE AREA
TRADING RANGE
During this rough time it is difficult to follow the trading plan. BUT this ability separates winners and losers . Remember that! :)
Good trading.
FINEIGHT team
Royal Caribbean Elliot Count (Week Mar 30 - Apr 3)Will check to see how it looks coming down for more precision final target and confirm with bullish divergence. Might also take a look at Thomas Demark when it gets there. I can struggle with labeling so if you go to the 1 or 3 minute and see if something should be labeled different let me know so I can take a look/learn/improve.
BTCUSD: Volume Profile Accumulation Zone $5,910 - $8,630
Suggested accumulation zone: $5,910 - $8,630. This is where the bulk of the volumes lies in the past 27 months.
VPVR shows point of control as $6,263 from the rally in September 2017 from mid $3ks until January 2020.
Declining volume implies a breakout in the not so distant future. Above $11,500 there is declining volume.
DYOR.
XEM/BTC - 625 sats Hey everyone! Consolidation leads to?
Here is a great example where the price just seems to be getting that last fuel before moving up.
The RRR (Risk-Reward-Ratio) of this setup is considerably high, so the probability of failure becomes greater. Nevertheless, a worthy look as you can always chose to downsize your risk.
Lastly, not how the POC (Point of Control) is acting very clearly as resistance. Now we just need to break it :)
Take care,
Vlad The Crypto Trader