UA Longer Term Trading IdeaUA has been in a long term uptrend since the breakout from 2012. Notice the trendline starts after resistance becomes support and tests multiple times confirming the baseline. The long term trend was recently retested around $32. As price is continuing to drop this trendline is possibly going to be retested.
A good long setup idea is setting up in this area. Depending on the speed of the fall, $36.50 support area may be the area as that area was tested twice as resistance before it broke through.
However, as shown by the trendline retest, $36.50 was not strong enough to hold when the price dropped almost parabolic like. If this happens again, the trendline is going to catch up to price near $34. Below that, you will have previous trendline lows near $32 and then ultimately the multiple tests at $30 plus the psychological level make a hard stop at $29 very prudent.
Long Idea 1--Buy at 36.50 on a slow pullback, buy at 34 on an aggressive pullback, only buy when the shorter timeframe shows this area is holding. Hard stop at $29.
Long Idea 2--Sell 34 Puts equivelant to the shares you wish to buy looking out no more than 1 month. If price drops below 34 you are put the stock and essentially buying the stock but for a cheaper price than the 34 because you were paid option premium. Hard stop still to $29.
Note--With idea number 2--do not sell more puts that what you wish to buy. Each put is equivelant to 100 shares. If you want to buy 500 shares, sell 5 puts at the price you wish to buy on the pullback. If price closes at expiration below that price, you are filled and are long the stock. If price does not, you collected roughly 1-5% of the price of the stock for the month and you try again the following month. This allows you to make a very strong return over the year simply trying to get filled on a rising stock during pullbacks--but ONLY to the extent you can afford. Selling more options than you can afford to buy in stocks will destroy your account at some point.
Note 2--If price closes below $29 before option expiration--buy to close your puts and move on. The trade has failed, you do not want to be long at this point. If you want to be overly protective, you may also buy the 29 put to protect your downside at that point but you are severly crippling your profit potential of selling puts to buy the stock.
All trading is a risk tradeoff--simply decide what works best for you. Long term UA is going no where and if they pay a dividend as well (not sure if do) this is a great nest egg type stock as long as price doesn't get below 30 and shift sentiment from a long term uptrend to a failed uptrend. No matter what--keep a permanent hard stop under 30. This market is very top heavy--you must be protected.
