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The price of eur/usd is moving now!The price of eur/usd is moving now! It stopped below the dynamic resistance identified by the EMA20 daily. So it did not complete the movement that we expected this week. The analysts had expected a slight decline in the US dollar against the other majors because of the FED conference, the announcement of the pay slips of the non-agricultural sector and the level of unemployment. The price is going to look for the static resistance set around 1.13 on this pair. For after the announcement of Trump on the new duties that will be imposed on China, the USD has strengthened again. We close at Break Even the bullish position that we had opened on EURUSD. Technical point of view The main trend remained unchanged. The final target is reachable within a few months among the static supports set at 1.10-1.08. There wasn't the rebound we expected, is now very likely that it will continue in this downtrend.From here (1.12) the price should start to go down and re-test the non-key static support at 1.112 within a few sessions. Once tested and broken to the downside there will be confirmation of a channeling on the part of this change projected to the downside. Here the price will bounce between the upper and lower side until it reaches the minimum of the period which will presumably be the area around 1.08. Fundamental point of view Even the fundamental scenario supports this view. The European Central Bank will continue to adopt an expansive policy, devaluing the Euro. The FED does not intend to take steps back by cutting rates and reviewing its monetary policy. Trading ideas The price of eur/usd is moving now and the possible TPs that we will set for this pair are: -the first one on the support of the 1.112.-the second on that of the 1,104.-the third on the final target at 1.08 and coinciding with 78.6% of the Fibonacci retracement. The analysis will be invalidated at the break of the resistance zone in the 1.146 area.
Long
by BFCMInvest
The price of the NIKKEI is above the key resistanceThe price of the NIKKEI is above the key resistance formed by the two EMAs (20 and 200 periods) daily and by 38.2% of the Fibonacci retracement. With this weekly closing above 22070 points, it is very likely that the price goes directly to the target. The next is in the area about  22900 points. Coinciding with 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement. This level will be very important from now to the next few weeks. In fact, if it is reached, it will be a watershed between a continuation of this short-term uptrend with the absolute maximum goals, or a rejection which will cause a retracement of over 1300 points. Basically, it seems that the first hypothesis is the most probable. The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged (it confirmed the deposit rate at -0.1% and the Japanese government bond yield target of 10 years around zero) and has committed to keeping interest rates very low at least until the spring of 2020. The BoJ also announced its new inflation forecasts. Noting that the 2% target will not be reached before 2022, despite years of ultra-accommodating monetary policy. This will keep the Japanese index stable. It should maintain a lateral/bullish trend in the short and medium therm.
TVC:NI225Long
by BFCMInvest
The price of gbp/jpy broke the support zoneThe price of gbp/jpy broke the support zone. The one identified by the EMAs 20 and 200 periods and by 50% of the Fibonacci retracement, on a daily time frame. Violating the whole area between 145.60 and 145.00 and confirming the closing below it, the price will continue this downtrend. The next target that coincides with the first key static support is at around 142.80. Once up to this point, the sales on this exchange should continue up to the final target of up to 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement set at 140.45. This technical scenario is supported by the fundamental one. With the "Brexit" situation still in development and far from a definitive conclusion, the pound is devaluing in the short term. This trend will continue at least until the end of the summer. This deadline granted from the EU to London to make a decision. On the other hand, although the Bank of Japan has declared that it is ready to implement an even more expansive monetary policy by stimulating the Japanese economy with further injections of money, it now seems intent on maintaining the line declared during the last meeting. Meanwhile, rumors are circulating on the markets. Japan has signed an agreement with China for the mutual purchase of ETFs. As part of an agreement called the "ETF Connectivity Agreement", Tokyo and Beijing would have agreed on the need to allow the fund managers of both countries to invest in the ETF market of their respective counterparts. This would be giving the yen some stability. It should continue to gain value against other majors in the short term. So, to conclude, we recommend a short entry with a target area in the 140.45 area; intermediate target i 142.7.
Short
by BFCMInvest
Gold: still safe (BUY)Up and Down The price having started going upward to test the resistance placed in area $ 1350 has created a series of sales which brought it back down again, with a retest of the static support located at 1280 $. Both technically and fundamentally the scenario has not changed: the trend remains bullish and would be invalidated in the medium term only if the static holder at $ 1265 is violated downwards, and there was a daily closing below it. Technical and fundamental From a technical point of view, the main EMAs are open upwards (uptrend) and the ichimoku cloud is supporting the price, obviously taking tf into consideration from the daily up. From a fundamental point of view, the uncertainty that revolves around the Fed and its monetary policy in 2019, expected softer than expected, is doing devalue the US dollar, which in the coming weeks / months, will be the crucial factor that will bring this commodity to test the area of about $ 1400 by the end of the first half of 2019.
TVC:GOLDLong
by BFCMInvest
Time to flush out some soft cash!!Unhedged capital flows into the EZ have been attributed to the following factors: - Perception that EZ political risks have subsided, returning market focus back to economic fundamentals - Improving economic fundamental picture and upside surprises in eco indicators have prompted significant asset allocation shift to European equities and thus, expectations of a rapid ECB policy normalisation Net long positioning has reached a fresh multi-year high, exceeding the 2013 high to reach levels last seen in 2011. There is increasing risk of weakness in the EUR/USD cross if the recent normalisation hysteria fades (which is a significant risk given Draghi’s highly accommodative stance and recent inflation upticks being largely attributed to higher energy prices). Equity flows show that US investors who have begun to purchase European equities have been doing so mainly on a FX unhedged basis, thus there is a large potential for hedging and EUR long liquidation in the event that sentiment cools. It is also worth considering the attractiveness of hedging recent substantial equity price gains for US participants (esp. French equity investors) as a positive carry is obtainable. It is fallacy that PIIGS risks have dissipated as some market participants believe. Spain’s 5yr CDS increased by 22% last week with the news that Banco Popular may not find a buyer and may have to be wound down; the bank is constantly reviewing how to bolster liquidity drained by deposit removals and a deterioration of its credit. $BMPS is not out of the poo yet, we must remember that previous bailouts by the Italian Treasury were unsuccessful; all eyes on the restructuring plan. Silence and reassurance are key assets for insolvent banks, remember this!! Looking at the upcoming ECB meeting, the risk of a more hawkish policy surprise is limited given inflation pressures remain subdued (EU yield curve looks like it’s ready to flatten quickly; expecting EU CESI to follow the US’s – there is usually an 8 week lag to the US). In terms of targets, I am looking at 1.10 for t/p 1 and 1.075x (gap there which needs filling. Statistically, there is a ~70%+ chance that the gap fills before 1.13 is reached; take that as you will!) for t/p 2.
Short
by jamiegleave
8
USDJPY/ GBPJPY: BUY $YEN IF DATA MISSES; SELL £YEN IF DATA HITSThe Risky BOJ front run trade using CPI inferences - I find it very interesting that the BOJ is releasing ALL of its key economic data (minus GDP) before making the easing decision, especially as we have already had CPI data this month so we will have an 2 CPI releases in one month which ive never seen happen before (CPI from JPY is usually due next week). - This to me indicates strongly that 1) All of the data released e.g. CPI, employment, retail sales, industrial production has some weighting on the BOJ decision and 2) that CPI especially has perhaps the strongest weighting on the BOJ decision as they are releasing 2 CPI prints in one month which means they brought forward the measurement by a week - this means they value the CPI print strongly. - Therefore, knowing this, in an ideal world either 1) ALL of the data will contract, which puts more pressure on a big BOJ easing package or 2) ALL of the data improves which eases the the pressure on the BOJ package - thus from here we are then able to take risk with an "educated" guess of what the policy will tend to be i.e. big or smaller. Long USDJPY if CPI less than -0.4% and generally weak/ miss other data: 1. The rationale is that a lower than expected and last print shows the JPY economy is decelerating even more aggressively than in previous months and therefore the BOJ will me MORE inclinded to ease heavier, as the data suggests there is a bigger problem. - Obviously the data/ CPI print imo acts as a function of BOJ easing, if we get massive misses across the slew of data then we should expect a bigger easing package than if there is only a slight miss - therefore we should treat our trades the same way. 2. Long USDJPY by xlots depending on the serverity of the data miss e.g. if CPI was -1.0% and unemployment ticked up to 3.4% i would do 3lots long usdjpy. If it was -0.5% and 3.3% i would do 1lot for example. Short GBPJPY if CPI is greater than -0.4% and other data generally hits/ is positive 1. The rationale is the opposite of the above - we assume if data improves that the BOJ will be less inclined to do a big easing package so we expect yen to remain strong so we go long yen and short GBP. - Once again the lot size is a function of the serverity of the data e.g. if CPI turned positive to 0.1% and unemployment dropped to 3% we would short 3lots. vs only 1lot if CPI ticked up only 10bps from last and unemployment ticked down only 10bps. Risks to the view: 1. The First risk is that data in general is considered to have "underlying trends" so the fact one print is outstandingly bad/ good might NOT impact policy e.g. thin about US NFP that was less than 100k and shocked markets - but it was a one off so didnt make the FOMC cut rates back. 3. Data underlying trends thus can reduce the weighting this data is given e.g. even if CPI improved to 0.1% from -0.4%, the BOJ could argue this is a one off print as the underlying trend for the past 6m+ has been negative inflation thus they will go ahead with a big easing package. - HOWEVER , the above point "3" in mind i believe data to the downside will be given a greater weighting than data to the upside, so we should have a short yen bias as weak data has been the underlying trend for most data points (especially CPI). -Further, i also think tail-end/ RHS/ LHS results will be given a proportionately larger weighting in their decision so this should also be reflected in our trading e.g. if CPI was -2% from -0.4% i would be a much much more aggressive buyer of UJ than if a -0.5% print from -0.4% is seen. The same can be said to the topside, if i saw +1.5% inflation from -0.4% last i would be a much greater seller of GBPJPY than if i saw -0.3% CPI from -0.4%.
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
Fed policy may drive the Dollar @1.41588With the next fed policy coming along, it seems as if the Dollar will gain momentum once again particularly with this pair as investors may find the USD attractive after the next meetings announcements. The Histogram shows bulls rebuilding strength is it breaks out of the R/Trend very soon. As for the chart, a HS Pattern upon completion with the daily trend AND Aug Resistance acting as consolidation. If the price manages to break beyond these points then I am guessing that we're going to be up for a hell of a ride towards October highs @1.43587 (201 pips) to then briefly correct near November highs then continue its surge and even push further than October highs. Stop Loss centered within Left Shoulder which is also below short term support @1.40929 (66 pips) This was made through research and insights gathered. Let me know what anyone thinks, I believe we're really onto something here! Regards
Long
by moemia
My trade idea for USDCHFOvervalued Swiss franc? On march 19th, 2015 SNB left benchmark interest rates @ -1.25% and -0.5% and -0.75% on deposits, to discourage holding investments in Swiss Franc. The bank believes that the Franc is overvalued and should continue to weaken overtime. The SNB revised down growth in the Swiss economy to 1% from 2%. They believe that a stronger Franc keeps inflation rates at its negative territory levels, which is not good for the economy. The SNB added that it will interfere in the FX market in case things go against the monetary policy. Federal Reserve Policy? The Fed is on its wheel to drive interest rates up by this year as Janet Yellen expects. I believe however that a rate rise this year might be too early, and could cause slow down the U.S. economy with fundamental figures showing hick ups that are blamed to be from bad weather conditions in January, the second quarter's data will suggest whether the blame on weather is valid or not. The first positive indication was the faster than expected US CPI. Even though I don't believe a raise in interest rates might happen this year, the overall trend believes it so we shall follow that or else we will get wiped out if we got stuck on our thoughts. Divergence This divergence in monetary policies suggest a great opportunity for us to profit on the long term by buying the USD and shorting the Swiss franc. Regardless of when the Fed will raise interest rates, it is closer to doing that than the SNB. If the Fed rises interest rates, investors will more likely shift from equity markets to money markets which will boost the USD. Percentage Gains/ Losses In 2014 the USD CHF offered investors an 11.4% return on Investment. If it was held for the whole year. In 2015 the pair fell by 4% until May. This fall could be a retracement for a higher bound. Chart - I personally like to trade price action, on medium term bias. - The green lines suggest major resistance level, that if cleared could take price to test the succeeding levels. - Red lines suggest major support levels. - The trend filter is green and suggesting an uptrend. -Prices tested the 200 moving average and pinned above it, without a daily candle close. This suggests a downside risk. - The 0.95282 level is an area of major resistance, if cleared we could test the 0.97, 0.98, 0.99 and finally the 1.00 round level. This would however take place by Q3 of this year. - Prices also cleared and closed above the 0.38 Fib level. -I believe that the USD have gained strongly over the course of this week, and it should rest before it could pass the first green resistance line. TRADE Target Price: 0.94233 SL: 1.924 TP: I don't set Take profits, as I leave prices to move with the trend, profits are locked in when the upward retracement reaches the 38% fib level.
Long
by hussein.ahmed
USD/RUB A+ set-up when fundamentals and technicals join togetherthe U.S. and the European Union announced a fresh round of sanctions against Russia on Wednesday 16 of July following the annexation of Crimea back in March and ongoing tensions in the east of Ukraine. The U.S. package was the largest round of penalties so far, with Russia's oil producer Rosneft hit as well as other energy, financial and defense firms. Technically USD/RUB came into play after new portion of sanctions were announced against Russia. In February 2014, currency pair broke up major resistance level at 33.50 and had nice follow through to 37.00. During this period of mark-up it was nicely controlled and followed by 8 and 21 EMAs. In April price entered into consolidation, after it dropped its 8 and 21 first time since break up. Break down of this range lead to move lower to 200 EMA. Bear chanel was created with series of lower highs and lower lows. But after price bounced off from support which acted like resistance earlier, then broke up this chanel, regained all key moving averages and had a nice 2nd day follow through. Lets see if it can build some construction above 34.43-34.59 support zone - break out point and moving averages. It will be healthy to see some digestion after six days move up in a row. And then it may continue higher. Next reasonable level of resistance is 35.35 - break down point of April's consolidation.
Long
by andrew.berg
1