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How to use ECONOMIC INDICATORS for informed trading decisionsHello everyone! Here you have some information that I consider useful on how to interpret and use economic indicators and data to make informed trading decisions in the foreign exchange market: GDP (Gross Domestic Product) - GDP is a measure of a country's economic output and is considered to be one of the most important indicators of economic growth. A higher GDP indicates a stronger economy, which can lead to an increase in demand for the country's currency. Unemployment Rates - Unemployment rates measure the percentage of the workforce that is currently without a job. A low unemployment rate indicates a strong economy, which can lead to an increase in demand for the country's currency. Inflation - Inflation measures the rate at which the average price level of a basket of goods and services in an economy is increasing. High inflation can lead to a decrease in demand for the country's currency, while low inflation can lead to an increase in demand. Interest Rates - Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money and are set by central banks. High interest rates can attract foreign investment, leading to an increase in demand for the country's currency. Trade Balance - The trade balance measures the difference between a country's exports and imports. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, which can lead to an increase in demand for the country's currency. Political Stability - Political stability is an important factor to consider when trading in the foreign exchange market. A stable political environment can lead to an increase in demand for a country's currency, while political instability can lead to a decrease in demand. In summary, GDP, unemployment rates, inflation, interest rates, trade balance and political stability are important economic indicators to keep an eye on when making trading decisions in the foreign exchange market. By considering these indicators, along with other market conditions, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell a particular currency. Please note that the above information is not a financial advice and only for educational purpose, Economic indicators are important but not the only factor to consider while making trading decisions and It's always important to do your own research and consider your own risk tolerance before making any trades.
Education
by m_maia14
Upside for Gold as rate expectation cooled by recession riskSummary The surge in energy and agricultural commodities in the past 6 months had materialized into serious inflation even down to the consumer end across the globe. To cope with inflation, the Fed has begun to raise rate at an accelerating pace. The rise in the interest rate of the USD causes dysfunction of traditional risk haven such as Japanese Yen FX:USDJPY and Gold COMEX:GC1! . However, with more evidence that the US is very close to a recession, the Fed might need to tune down to a more cautious approach to balance between taming inflation and speeding up recession due to higher borrowing cost (and debt repayment) for business. The stabilization in rate hike might soften the already strong dollar, hence providing room for traditional risk haven assets to rebound and restore some of their risk haven property . With still ongoing global political uncertainty (see appendix for more detail), there might be further upside potential beyond rebound. One should pay extra attention to the collective transition of power globally which is happening at a similar time coincidentally. Technical and trade planning Just like most commodities, the dominant force driving gold downward is the strength of the USD. The US Dollar Index TVC:DXY had reached a new high at 107.786, before retracing back to 106.895 to close lower last Friday, creating a reverse hammer candle. While the uptrend of the dollar index is still effective, however the bearish pattern hinted the peak might have reached (or at least the upside momentum is reducing) . Similar pattern in reverse was seen in many commodities including gold, which means opportunity for rebound trade. Note that gold currently is trading below most moving averages which means the downtrend is still in power. 20 days moving average trading below the 50 days, and both pointing downward double confirm the bearish view. In rebound trade it is very important to keep your cut loss and profit taking tight. One should also adopt strategies that allow more tolerance for error (e.g. longing call option with >30-60 days to expiration). Here are some technical levels trader of gold should be aware of: Downside support (to cut loss if dropped through) 1676.7: 2021-Aug hammer candle bottom 1721.8: 2021-Sep downside retest bottom Upside resistance (to take profit if fail to go further) 1785: May-16 bottom (broke on Jul-5) 1833: 250 days moving average 1878.6: Jul-3 rebound peak Appendix: Political events to keep an eye on Asia The former prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe was assassinated last Friday. Abe was seen as the de facto power of Japan. He initiated and was involved in lots of Japan economic policy and China-Japan relation issues. Close ties with global leaders, he was one of the early promoters of threat emerging from growing China, which later led to global boycott of China. He also showed his support to Taiwan as he saw the country as the first line of defense of Japan from China. One of his unaccomplished goals was to revise the country’s pacifist constitution to formalize the Japanese self-defense force as army, and broaden its military agenda outside of homeland defense, to be involved in regional security issues, such as Taiwan. The death of Shinzo Abe might help the constitutional revision to gain more supportive votes, which will worsen China-Japan existing tension. The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will take place in November this year. One of the major topics is whether the current Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be re-elected for the next 5-years term. With lots of policy missteps that have caused material harm to the Chinese economy and financial stability, there are growing voices within the party that they might want a leader who can focus on reviving the Chinese economy instead of political ideals. At the same time, Xi is neutralizing the opposition force by revealing their evidence of misconduct and corruption (same strategy 10 years ago). The upcoming continuation or transition of power in China is going to be a very tricky one. Europe No end in sight for Russian invasion toward Ukraine, albeit increasing military support by the western powers. Inflation continues to make record highs in Europe with latest June CPI figures standing at 8.6%, energy talk with Russia is going to be very difficult especially for natural gas which is virtually impossible to get supply from other continents. The prime minister of the UK, Boris Johnson had resigned last week amid back-to-back scandals , with the Chris Pincher case became the last straw that broke the camel's back. The United States Recession risk, high gasoline price, baby formula shortage, the series of unfortunate events had taken a toll on the president Joe Biden approval rate, which dropped to just 30% in the new national poll. The negative sentiment toward democrats is likely to make the republicans take control of both the senate and the house. The democrats probably can take advantage of the recent Supreme Court’s decision of overturning Roe v. Wade, however the edge might not be enough to change much according to the latest forecast.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by geoffreyip523
Eco/monetary news n°27: The FUD is more than just FUD> After 3 months of election fraud suspicions/allegations Myanmar military arrested the state leader & president *********************** 2021 off to a good start. Unsurprisingly it has begun. After winning the general elections with 80% of the votes (not counting the fixed 25% the military get) the heads of the ruling party, state leader and president were removed by the military which claims the evidence of fraud got too big to ignore. A general is now state leader, and the VP is now president, for 1 year until new elections happen. Of course, all the usual 🤡 have blindly jumped to their press rooms and their keyboards to "condemn the coup" and we have not heard the side of the burmese military. It's bad when the unelected military have political power, but it's great when social networks and the media have UNLIMITED POOOOOWEEEER! Joe Biden has done what you'd expect, threats of sanctions, but China might have its own word to say, especially now that east asia (1/3 of the world) are in the process of switching to their own economic area, something that is huge but has gone under the radar of the western media (with their own digital currency which was never going to be Bitcoin lmao at those that thought otherwise). This obviously adds to the paranoia of the western ruling class which is being threatened in Europe, and poo'ed their pants in the US when the capitol was stormed. A contested election that ends up in arrests? An estimated 80% of the US military supports Trump? They are getting nervous. > Defund the police: US White House panicking and more resolved than ever to turn the US into a police state 😆 *********************** Part of the reasons the WH is panicking is what I wrote in the previous point: populism, elections contest, a very real CH raid (irrational people become fully aware of something when it happens, when they physically see it happen they really start caring), and now a very real coup in Myanmar. Antifa & BLM have been rioting, they ignored it to win an election but they know it and they want to fight it. They also are afraid of civilian Trump supporters. So yeah, they are really turning the country in a police state. I crack up each time I see a braindead tv guy say that "Now that Trump is gone we are returning to normal" with shinny eyes and a big smile on his face. "Back to normal", where did I hear that before? Boy this is just the start. Textbook complacency and denial. > Top epidemiologists publish covid papers that make EU bureaucrats look stupid & France far-right would win 😏 *********************** The EU, and the EU representatives are being shaken. The french president, which is the least smart one since at least 1950 (I don't know the previous ones), is started to rage and panic, he called the France "a country of 66 million prosecutors" and whined that it was normal to make mistakes "we all make them every single day". Really? Every day? How bad are you? Calamity Joe. Even the mainstream parties and media are starting to ask questions, here is an article about the Swedish health agency asking clarity on what it is paying for: www.reuters.com   Here is a paper by Ioannidis, the world nb 1 epidemiologist (203 h-index), showing that lockdowns were very likely to be useless (and even favor the spread of the virus), as I predicted 9 months ago I may add: www.medrxiv.org He recently wrote "Congratulations on your editorial highlighting the depressing levels of “corruption” taking place in the name of “beating the pandemic”. Scrutiny certainly deserves to be directed towards conflicts of interest within members of SAGE and scientific/medical advisors..." Link to the full thing: www.bmj.com Things are looking grim for the liberal bourgeois globalist "elite". Times are changing. Ah back in 2002 the France major far right party got to the presidential 2nd turn and average people voted in mass to "be a barrier to radical extremism", in 2017 they were in the 2nd turn again and got 33% votes, and now a poll showed they had 50% vote intentions. People showing their discontent, I'm not sure they read the program of the Rassemblement National, cutting a hand for stealing an apple man this is harsh, ok I exaggerate but barely. And even with 1/5 of the votes they only get a handful of parliamentary seats, so I guess the first female president could only rule as a dictator? What an opposition, during a recent liberty-restriction vote in France here was the opposition (there are 577 deputies): Les républicains (centre-right in Europe, left of US democrats): 15/105 Socialistes (they need no introduction): 5/29 La France insoumise (radical left "rebels"): 5/17 - Where did they go? They talk a lot, and then? They had swimming pool? (French people will understand) Rassemblement National (far right): 0/6 - They are loving it, they would take harsher measures if they could, and the french would vote for this "opposition" 🤦‍♂️ In France the whole executive branch of the government is elected by the president, so this vote is important, the president is the head of state and face of the country, the Prime Minister is I guess the most powerful politician, technically he is 2nd after the president since the president can sack him and change him but he's the one that runs the country, an unelected guy that kissed enough bums to get nominated, and has no plan (seriously, past PMs got interviewed years later and they went "no idea how I ended up here, I had no plan no idea what to do I just followed"). I know this is a little long, but hey during the "covid emergency" the executive in France and Europe has completely bypassed the legislators (congress), soooo... If the far right gets nominated, even without any legislative power... If 60k deaths is enough for an emergency, they'll find something. I want to congratulate all the high IQ liberals that set a precedent to enable the next Hitlers to become dictators without even trying. Great job. I'm actually genuinely impressed. > Davos New World Order chat: Putin & Xi Jinping warn elites will lead to war that will "end our civilization" 💥 *********************** The chat with the "common folk" has been postponed to June, but the usual head of states / governments chats have taken place. Just going to link the articles. 1- The Putin article "The crackdown on civil liberties by the elites will lead to a terrible war", with a link to a video of him speaking via CNBC: newspunch.com 2- Winnie the Pooh sperging something about a cold war: www.hindustantimes.com 3- They spoke of global taxation of tech giants at Davos, and Germany says they spoke to Yellen which seems to agree! About time the US paid its fair share to Europe. Damn I am shaking while I am writing this. They have been scamming the world for too long. I do not support "eat the rich" UNLESS it's tech giants. F*** them. YEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! altnewscoin.com > BIS says banks representing 1/5 of the world population will release a Digital Currency in the next 3 years *********************** You know Bitcoin maximalist logic: => Since this is happening, it means digital currencies are getting adopted. This is good for Bitcoin. => If they would not be doing this, Bitcoin has a monopoly on the DC market. This is good for Bitcoin. www.finextra.com Also, "A recent survey indicates that 86% of central banks are conducting research or development in the area of CBDC". The most recent speech they uploaded: www.bis.org A little quote for fun: "Above all, investors must be cognisant that Bitcoin may well break down altogether. Bitcoin needs a hugely energy-intensive protocol, called “proof of work”, to safely process transactions. Currently, so-called miners sustain the system’s security, and are rewarded with newly minted coins. A sad side effect is that the system uses more electricity than all of Switzerland. In the future, as Bitcoin approaches its maximum supply of 21 million coins, the “seigniorage” to miners will decline. As a result, wait times will increase..." > IMF warns of risks (zzz): IMF finds new words: warns of ‘exceptional uncertainty’ in vaccine-driven recovery 😁 *********************** The IMF raises their GDP growth predictions and will increase them even more if the US approves of a 2 trillion relief package, wow this sounds like great news! Why don't we print infinite money? Infinite growth! "GDP is up 8000% this year after we printed 10000% of our MZM and spent it randomly on troll projects" wow so much progress! 🧠 financialpost.com Oh and they "warn of risks", that's not even funny anymore. Maybe the US economy grows by 20%, and my short position on the USD also grows by 20%?
by MrRenev
2
Netflix correctional moveHello traders and analysts, Here is a view of Netflix, while alot of people are currently restricted to access in the outside world, content is being pushed to online platforms but without an abundance of new content to be completed and provided - re-runs and previous fan favourites will suffice? or will it? Will people scale back on entertainment where people may have lost their jobs or look for an alternate source? e.g. streaming, youtube etc. The chart shows us: Maxed out weekly, monthly tops We are now in a weekly trading range - but price has shown a gap formation which has been added to outflows with the Nas100 outflows also. With the election looming - it is a good opportunity here to take profits and cover profits with short positions Trade: We will look for the least path of resistance when trading, meaning the highest probability the price shows a sign of falling. Keep in mind both scenarios 1. - buy from $440 correction 2. sell to $360 zone 3. Sell to $440 and buy in - with confirmation this structure will not break.. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. If you feel our work is exceptional and would like to donate coins, this is highly appreciated. Regardless we will continue producing analysis. Thanks, Team Lupa
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by LupaCapital
SPX500 update The sell off, or correction has begun. Now we are at an interest area now where for the second weekly candle close is bearish. Now to some this is a healthy correction or to others the start of a bearish crash prone to a host of reason which we have explained before. We are continuing to hold short positions - again the long term here is to hold to the low of March and beyond [if price shows us a structure to add positions along the way down. The window of opportunity to sell is between August - November - think of the fundamentals attached - that and a newly tested area below to retest. We must note - in order to be successful here patience is key Risk management on the trade is pivotal and once enough in profit - put stop loss to breakeven. Please see related the ideas for our longterm outlook: We hope you enjoy our content: Please leave your thoughts and analysis to why you agree or not. To our followers, many thanks for the support. Team Lupa.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by LupaCapital
UNH insider sales flash a warning sign ahead of earningsUnitedHealth Group has had an incredibly strong showing this year, and right now it's priced pretty attractively at oversold level on the hourly chart. On its daily chart it's at RSI 38, nearing oversold (RSI 30) but not quite there yet. It also hasn't yet tested its August low of 220.78 or its one-year lows of 208.07 and 216.84. I suspect we'll get a bounce tomorrow from the hourly oversold level, then fall some more to the 216-220 range. At that point we should be about oversold on the daily chart and should bounce into earnings on October 15. The average analyst price target on UNH is about 299, implying about 33% upside from the current price. Analyst estimates of UNH earnings have held steady for the past month at 3.77, significantly better than 3.41 the same quarter last year. UNH has an 8.7/10 Equity Starmine Summary Score rating. So most signs are bullish. However, company director Richard Burke sold 10,000 shares last week. Other directors also recently sold thousands of shares. All this insider selling doesn't inspire confidence for good earnings this quarter. On that basis alone, I don't think I'd hold this for anything more than a pre-earnings bounce. On the other hand, insider sellers may be responding to political risk rather than to the company's financials. The healthcare sector is expected to report good earnings this quarter, which could make it attractive as a defensive play in an earnings recession. Healthcare is a defensive sector that usually does well when the rest of the market is down. Right now healthcare stocks are cheap, which makes them even more attractive. However, with Elizabeth Warren leading the Democratic pack, UNH's share price may continue its breakdown. Health insurance and pharmaceutical companies are at particular risk from Warren's "Medicare for All" plan, and you may be able to chart healthcare stocks' performance from now until the election as a function of Warren's popularity in the polls.
NYSE:UNH
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
weekly outlook (DXY host EUR/USD)hey guys As you all are aware of the political risk that surrounds us every time let it be Brexit or maybe an upcoming Frexit we don't forget to find trade setups & we don't stop trading so lets grab the opportunity & start the week with positive vibes. Coming to the technicals we have a possible move towards the south in the DXY which we still think is active & on the flip side we have the EUR/USD to make a possible move towards the north.I can simply suggest you to follow the price on the lower time frame for better results. Don't forget to hit like & PM us for any queries.
by GrowingForex