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Johnson's resignation, "Japanese disease" & oil The US dollar value is growing in the foreign exchange market. Although we do not agree with the current dollar state, however that what is happening. We are conscious of the futility of trying to go against the market will, but the sensation of the illogical nature of what is happening and the current dollar value still does not pass. So today we will continue to sell the dollar. Recall that partly the strength of the dollar is in the weakness of opponents. Yesterday, for example, weak data on the leading Eurozone economy came out. Germany now not only has negative economic growth, but also a decline in inflation. And this is already a completely bad signal. Something similar was observed in Japan in the 90s (“the lost decade”) and was called “Japanese disease”. So it seems like Germany has caught the same virus. This is also supported by the fact that leading economic institutions are going to lower forecast for 2019. In this light we sell EURUSD. This week, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson may well get his vote of no confidence, and Britain will finally plunge into the abyss of political chaos. Which, will quickly turn into economic chaos. At least yesterday's data on UK GDP (the indicator fell by 0.2% in the second quarter) shows that, as do polls by British companies that are rapidly losing faith in the country's economic prospects. In general, the pound also has reasons to decline. But on the other hand, do not forget about the rule that has been developed recently: "Johnson’s weakness is pound’s strength." buying in the area of 1.2290 and selling with 1.2350. In both cases, we set the small stops. There was an increase in sellers in the oil market yesterday. In this case, everything happened according to our forecasts and expectations. As a reason for oil sales, there were conciliatory statements from the country of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia in which he stated that "A bad peace is better than a good quarrel." That is, he confirmed the information that the Kingdom does not want the conflict to escalate. As a result, the third quarter was the worst for oil in 2019 (prices fell by almost 9%). Our recommendation for oil is unchanged so far - we sell oil. Sales target - bottoms $ 51 (brand WTI). Precisely because of the peace-loving crown prince, gold yesterday went below 1485. For us, this is a kind of watershed. While gold is below this mark, in our opinion, bears control the market situation. And this means that today we will sell gold with stops above 1285.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
The resurrection of the pound & revolution in the bond marketUK monthly retail sales were expected to decrease by 0.2% however, but fortunately, we observe the increase by 0.2%. The pound was trying to gain a foothold above 1.21. Although the attempt failed at the end of the day, we continue to recommend buying the pound both mid-term positions and on the intraday basis. Pound back above $1.21 but not for the log time. US retail sales grew unexpectedly Nevertheless, our recommendation is to sell on the intraday basis as well as medium-term positions - remains unchanged. The situation with the dollar has not changed much - it is too expensive given that the Fed started cutting interest rates and the threat of foreign exchange intervention by the United States. Financial markets, meanwhile, continue to evolve literally before our eyes. Who would have thought a few years ago that investors would be willing to pay extra for the right to lend money? More than $ 16 trillion has been invested by investors in bonds with a negative yield. And the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds fell below 2%, which is a historic low. We live in interesting times. Argentina’s sovereign century bonds tumbled by the most since they were sold in June 2017. Currently, the yield on Argentina's international bonds is close to 100% (!), which made them the cheapest in the world. The yield on dollar bonds of the Argentinean government rose to 27%. Funds that invested in Argentine bonds are suffering huge losses. Considering that Argentina is not an economic dwarf, everything might end badly for the global economy. Thanks to China, yesterday was an opportunity to make good money on our recommendation to sell gold. The asset has grown (1525) on the news that China is threatening the US with countermeasures. It seems like China has felt the strength and is ready to confront the United States. But it is still too early to panic. We still consider such behaviour as preparations for negotiations between the United States and China. The parties are simply trying to gain an advantage in the negotiating position. Recall, in our opinion, gold value is too high. But the situation can change at any time., We continue to monitor the development of events and will continue to keep our readers updated on what is happening and how to make money on it.
Long
by Trade24Fx
GBPUSD Intraday ForecastAs we forecast uptrend for this day, so Forecast City suggests buy (limit) above S1=1.254. But the short term forecast is range bound, so we expect to reach the following targets: TP3: R1=1.259. TP4: R2=1.2615. Set the stoploss of these orders at breakout of S2=1.2505. Stop and reverse: If trend gets reversed, sell (stop) orders will be opened at breakout of S2=1.2505. In this situation, there is an expectation to reach the target S3=1.24. Set the stoploss of reverse orders at breakout of S1=1.254. If you would like to trade in the next 24 hours , the intraday forecasts of ForecastCity will show you the most accurate and the most likely actions and swings of the market. Our intraday forecasts are available before those of all the other sites. Our intraday forecasts are available very early in the day. It is one of ForecastCity’s glorious and positive qualities. This quality has made us the first forecaster that forecast tomorrow for you!
Long
by ForecastCity
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