Is the Market is a Ponzi? The Printing of Money and Growth8-minute video where I gloss over the big picture stuff relating to the Markets and as they relate to the M2 (WM2NS) Money Stock.
This is a High Time Frame analysis of the Market charts like the Dow and SP500 vs the Printing of Money and the increase in Money Supply.
Basically, the entire market exists as a function of printing money, organic growth hasn't been around for decades and our current highs
are almost entirely because of the increase in Money Supply. The scariest one is the Covid dump and how even though the global economies
were in many ways shut down, the market experienced a massive Bull Market.
The fact is, that in relation to the Money Supply the Dow, SP500, Bitcoin, everything is pumped by printing money
Ponzi
Reasons for Crypto-Optimism During the Next RecessionMade a list of a few things for crypto holders to be optimistic about the recession/depression about to unfold in the global markets right now.
- Crypto's market cap is less than 1% (possibly even less than 0.1%) of traditional stocks. If the stock market goes down,
- Banks are taking their time raising interest rates on savings accounts while pushing mortgage and loan rates up at the same time. This will make staking rewards (XTZ- 4.6%, ETH - 3.65%) look appealing.
- The 2008 recession coincides with a period where tech companies (Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft) took over the charts of the Fortune 500. We're likely to see a similar thing happen again - crypto is the industry most positioned to be in that category right now.
- Ponzi schemes exist in traditional markets too, and we're going to see Bernie Madoff-esque figures emerge as the market starts to dip. Madoff was able to keep his racket going for over 20 years just because the stock market kept on going up and up. When that stops, the scams will too. (Many of these practices have been "legalized" in the finance worlds at this point, but it won't change the fact that people will lose money and there will be a backlash against that.) This will further erode trust in the traditional markets as a whole.
People generally don't do research unless they're forced to, but the economic slowdown may force a lot of people to look further into the details out there. This generally works in favor of crypto assets since what they offer now is just a better deal for most people out there.
#Titan Rugpull. Mark Cuban calls for Stablecoin Regulation, huh?Billionaires are not your friends.
Is something I repeat often
here is another example.
TARIFF MAN TO STRIKE GLOBALLY!This is a 6H chart of the DAX. Markets globally are heading south. Even the super-resilient Brazilian Bovespa is beginning to buckle. In this screencast I show what the price action is like for the DAX and why I think the market is exhausting. I may well be totally wrong - but I'll limit how wrong I am with an acceptable stop-loss.
Three main issues plague the DAX and other markets globally:
1. China trade/technology war.
2. Tariff man picking a fight with Mexico
3. And as of a couple days ago Tariff man has squeezed India by ending special trade treatment. (Google is your friend on that one).
From what I see, the house of cards, the Ponzi scheme that is global markets is falling. I'll take my losses in shorting these.
Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation to trade. Opinions here are my own. If you make decisions based on this and you lose your money sue yourself!
If you put $1000 into Bitcoin last year, you would now have...Sorry for pooperino sounderino :(
If you put $1000 in Bit-con 1 year ago you would now have 170$ :)
Happy anniversary ATH Bitcoin ponzi.
How normal markets behave:
How a ponzi behaves:
So unlike normal markets here we have:
* Negative sum (FX null sum stocks positive sum)
* The whole system depends on miners which either: A) Get paid in crypto for running the system, that they sell and drop the price. B) Get paid in crypto for running the system, which they hold greedily until they have a fat stack that could single handedly crash the entire system.
* 99% of crypto existance is based on exchanges. Bitcoin was nothing before MtGox. People go to crypto exhanges to buy and sell. Unlike normal markets, these exchanges ar enot neutral. At all. Arthur Hayes is a crypto early investor and "believer" for crying out loud. They hold bags and have a 100% full clear conflict of interest. Also, if this ponzi collapses, their businesses likely die (unless theystart diversifying quick but all these names... like they can all make the transition to Forex or something else). The people running the show are dependent on it not crashing, or as slowly as possible. They are not regulated too. It is in their interest to keep this alive as long as possible.
WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG? :D
Leprous - Contaminate me. Coldplay - Fix you.