Portier
USDJPY - Multi-Year Macro OutlookJapan is heading for a recession.
Q419 QoQ annualised GDP coming in at -6% BEFORE the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak had been flagged. Subsequent to Japan's 2 percentage point October consumption tax hike, there was an expected decline in expenditure which in our view will carry on into Q120 growth numbers.
What we see happening
- Macro risk off themes should in the short term keep Yen bid where we currently remained positioned (net long)
- The existing fiscal stimulus policy which may negate the effects of the consumption tax, is likely to be insufficient to battle decline growth themes which may warrant monetary stimulus shift in the BoJ.
- Any material shift in this regard may be exacerbated by a contraction in global growth, with capital flight into the dollar
We look forward to continuing to provide market leading analysis to traders & investors alike across the TradingView platform.
Like, subscribe and leave your comments below!
Until next time,
Portier Capital
Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management
Macro Update: Inflation ticking higher in the DollarTraders & Investors,
Our January call for a bull leg in the US Dollar has played out as anticipated.
Our current view
- Bids continue to remain supported amidst risk aversion as flow shifts to safe haven markets. We see this theme well played out and now over extended. Opportunity to fade the rally.
- Inflation now ticking substantially higher which poses value erosion risk/issues which may be the catalyst for the sell off
Whilw we remain positioned net long risk off, our proprietary models are now signalling an unwind in the Dollar. We hold this view into our technical sellside targets where we will position ourselves net short.
-------------------------
We look forward to continuing to provide market leading analysis to traders & investors alike across the TradingView platform.
Like, subscribe and leave your comments below!
Until next time,
Portier Capital
Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management
Brazilian Real under fire - USDBRL Macro OutlookThe Brazilian Real remains under fire due to a weakening commodity outlook, continued coronavirus concerns and impacts on LATAM/emerging market assets, revisions in inflationary outlook (down to 3.25% for 2020) and subsequent shifts in future monetary stimulus, high gross debt to GDP (~80%) and continued capital outflow from asset markets.
All within a risk-off climate supporting dollar bids.
We continue to see compelling evidence for a leg higher from a technical perspective with price supported by its 52-Week Moving Average, completion of the first corrective leg and an extension into our macro swing target of 5.00xx. Around a +16.00% move on the cards from here.
We have added buyside exposure across both our macro and directional portfolios.
-------------------------
We look forward to continuing to provide market leading analysis to traders & investors alike across the TradingView platform.
Like, subscribe and leave your comments below!
Until next time,
Portier Capital
Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management
