✅TRADE REVIEW: $MSFTAlready have a position in MSFT and have traded in the past. I am adding on this pullback buy.
I have about half a position size now and will look to build up my position on the next pivot.
Position
Worldcoin: The Future of Digital Identity What happens when 90 plus percent of everything we interact with and see on the internet is created or enhanced by AI?
A new project has emerged with the potential to revolutionize the way we think about digital identity. Worldcoin, co-founded by Sam Altman of OpenAI, aims to create a global network of digital identities for a world where AI robots become harder to distinguish from humans.
At the heart of Worldcoin is the concept of "proof of personhood," which is becoming increasingly important as AI technology advances. The project utilizes an innovative approach to identity verification through the use of an "Orb" device that scans people's irises to ensure they are unique human beings.
"It is a way to verify humanness truly at population scale, independent of governments, able to scale to billions of people. And that is what we call World ID, which underlying is a biometric verification device that we call the orb, that you see here, that actually allows us to do that. So that is World ID, that's building block one. And two is a digital currency called Worldcoin that everyone that actually verifies for World ID receives ownership in it. That is the protocol level. And then also, to get all of this going, we built the first app that connects to the protocol that we call World App So that's a non-custodial wallet that lets you send money to your friends, lets you verify with your World ID and kind of brings together many of the technologies that came out of crypto in the last couple years and just makes them very easy to understand and use" - Alex Blania CEO, Tools For Humanity
But Worldcoin is not just about identity verification. The project also aims to provide a universal basic income through the distribution of its MIL:WLD token to every human. This bold vision could have a significant impact on financial inclusion and help to address some of the economic challenges that the world is currently facing.
The association with OpenAI and Sam Altman has generated significant interest in Worldcoin, with the project raising $115 million in a Series C round led by Blockchain Capital. The project's token, MIL:WLD , has seen a surge in price, reaching $9.35, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Now, let's look at the MIL:WLD token. With a total supply of 10 billion and a current circulating supply of 104 million, there's still a lot of room for growth. This is a potential proxy for the public to invest in OpenAI, the largest AI research company. And if the project continues to gain traction, the demand for the token could increase, potentially driving the price up.
While there are still many unknowns about the future of Worldcoin, the project's ambitious goals and innovative approach to identity verification make it one to watch in the world of cryptocurrency and AI.
Most will wait till MIL:WLD is listed on major exchanges....by than what price will it be!? As always, early bird gets the worm.
📈GAL Analysis: Potential Upside Momentum🛸👨🚀🔍After reaching resistance at 4.966, GAL has initiated a corrective move. Considering the Fibonacci retracement, a bounce from the 0.382 level suggests that breaking above 4.966 could lead to higher targets.
🌪Our Fibonacci-based targets from this point include 5.83 and a range between 6.5 to 7. In case of breaking below the support at 4.196, the last anchor within the range of 3.8 to 4 could potentially reverse the price.
📉A breakdown below the PRZ range on the 4H trend might alter the short-term trend, but keep in mind that the 1D and 1W charts remain bullish, reducing the likelihood of a significant market reversal based solely on the 4H chart.
📊Additionally, the volume of green candles outweighs that of red ones, suggesting potential upward movement in the future.
📈For long positions, it's advisable to wait for confirmation above 4.966 before initiating a position after the resistance breakout
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
🔔COMP Analysis: Consolidation Phase on 4H Chart⚡️🔍COMP is currently in a consolidation phase on the 4-hour timeframe, forming a sideways trading range. Considering the upward trend behind it, if the long trigger is activated, it would be favorable to open long positions with increased confidence.
📉For short positions, our risk trigger is at 85.37. Given the bullish nature of the market, I do not recommend entering short positions right now. Instead, wait for a breakdown below this level and consider entering short positions with a trigger at 76.92.
📈Regarding volume, COMP has encountered significant volume at the resistance of 95.21, followed by a decrease in volume. This indicates strong resistance that may not easily be breached. If you anticipate a bullish move, consider entering positions earlier than the resistance level, as it may break, and the confirmation candle may not provide timely validation.📊
💥As for indicators and oscillators, there is not much to add as the market is range-bound, and additional information may not be beneficial.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
📈GMX Futures: Potential Long Opportunities🚀🔍In the 4-hour timeframe, GMX exhibits a clear ascending trendline providing consistent support, yet to be breached. It once faked out the trendline, followed by higher lows, demonstrating resilience and breaking the resistance at 59.2 with conviction.
📈Following the break, two significant red candles with substantial volume are observed, serving as potential pullbacks. Should the current candle engulf the previous one, it presents a favorable opportunity to enter a long position in futures. Aim for a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 2, ensuring the use of stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses.
💎For those waiting on the sidelines, patience until the trigger at 64.35 is advisable before considering entry.
✅The target for long positions, apart from the risk-to-reward ratio of 2, could be set at 71.66, although current price levels may pose a challenge for immediate attainment.
📉In the event of a reversal at 59.2, a more aggressive entry could be considered at 57.52 in lower timeframes. However, exercise caution and promptly secure profits to avoid substantial losses.
🐢For a more conservative approach, waiting for confirmation at 54.01 before considering short positions is prudent.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
✅ Tia token analyses for SPOT position✍️
Celestia is a modular layer one blockchain network designed to solve the scalability problem in blockchains.
⚡️By separating the consensus and execution layers, this network allows developers to easily launch their own blockchains without the need for in-depth specialized knowledge, with high security and scalability.
For this reason, it has been noticed and welcomed by many users and other projects and very good investments have been made on it🔥
According to the mentioned contents and the very bright history of Celestia, we can expect that investing in this currency will be profitable for us.
Currently, in the technical discussion, Celestia's main token named Tia has broken its trend line and resistance line, and at the price of 16.20, it can be a suitable entry for spot buying.
✅Investing in cryptocurrencies is always risky and requires your own research and personal capital management
wen token , best meme coin in solana 😍🏅🏅🏅 Considering that in the new 2024 CMC survey, in which the Solana network is introduced as the best blockchain network⭐️⭐️⭐️
, and considering that huge investments have been made by the Solana team on some projects,
it can be expected that the popular meme coin of the Solana network It means WEN😍 that in the coming days, will experience its greatest PRICE with the main currency of this network, and it can be a suitable option for spot buying and holding.
According to the CHART and the technical discussion of this token, it is now in a very good place and by breaking the $0.0003211 ⚡️ level and close daily candle ⚡️ , it can be a good option for investment in the coming days.
Analyses about Manta token for SPOT ✍️
Fundamentally, Manta token is due to the use of zkSNARKs technology, ⚡️
which provides private and secure transactions for its users. It has a great potential to have many users.💥
⚡️Due to the great reception of people in the crypto space and the high capital demand from this network, as well as having powerful supporters such as Celestia, investing in the spot mode and also finding the right entry point to have a long position, Manta can be one of the best options of this the days be for us.
Also, according to the technical chart of this token, which is in a good position, it can be said that after breaking the 3.713 point, it is a good time to enter a long position.🔥
Gold Soars to Break Bearish Trend - Expected Correction Ahead!Today, gold managed to achieve a remarkable growth, breaking completely out of its downward trend.
Important resistance for gold lies between 2084 - 2088, and I expect that with the market opening next week, it will start a corrective move from this range or slightly higher at 2092 - 2096.
We have several reasons:
Firstly, the downtrend line has been breached, indicating the need for further buying pressure to sustain the upward momentum, which typically requires a correction in a financial market.
This rapid and extraordinary rise in the price of gold without any fundamental news or geopolitical tensions is unlikely and deceiving.
In my opinion, the targets for the downside move could be 2077 - 2064 - 2052.
I hope we all have a great weekend ahead! ❤️
✅ STOCK REVIEW: $EME booked +17% profits EME serves as an instructive case for two main reasons. First, entering the position required multiple attempts, with initial purchases on November 27th proving premature, leading to exits on December 21st and January 2nd at minor losses. A successful re-entry was made on January 18th, marked by a orange bubble, with an additional purchase on January 29th. Given the intraday volatility, I was stopped on the add alone on the January 29th.
The second notable aspect of EME was its consistent performance. Instead of rapid spikes, it steadily climbed, yielding a 20% gain over 19 days with minimal retracement. This exemplifies the preferred behavior for our investments, favoring steady growth over volatile surges. A partial sale was executed on February 13th for a 7.90% profit, and the remaining shares were sold on February 23rd for a 17.39% gain, as the stock became overextended.
Post-second purchase, the technical action mostly showed confirmations over violations, highlighting the stock's steady ascent without significant pullbacks. This emphasizes the value of patience and adherence to a stock demonstrating consistent, positive movement, allowing for substantial gains with reduced volatility.
✅ STOCK REVIEW: $SHOOSHOO experienced a significant upsurge, climbing from $30.35 to $44.23 from September to December, followed by a typical pullback of approximately 10.67% from its peak to a low of $39.45.
This correction is viewed positively as it likely indicates the elimination of less committed investors.
Notably, on February 7th, SHOO's price action dipped below the January 4th low before swiftly rebounding close to its previous highs. Such movements suggest a potential setup for a pivot point, expected to form within a few days to a week.
BUY POINT
Indeed, SHOO broke out to new highs on February 23rd, entering at $44.40. Our current stop loss is set at $42.00, presenting a risk of -4.74%. A Reversal alert was activated by the day's end, which is typical; we anticipate the price to surpass this level shortly. With earnings announced next week, having a buffer to maintain the position through the report would be advantageous.
✅ STOCK REVIEW: $OLLIThis week, we initiated a cautious buying strategy for NASDAQ:OLLI as it retracted to a strategic entry point, referred to as the low cheat for those who have read the Minervini books.
THE BUY
The buy signal was activated on February 20th when its price surpassed the peak from February 16th. Although our entry price at $79.18 was slightly higher than anticipated, we limited our purchase to a quarter of the planned position, setting a stop-loss at $72.30, which equates to a risk of 8.64%.
FOLLOW THROUGH ACTION
After the stock remained within the range of the breakout bar for a couple of days, it began to ascend, prompting us to increase our stake at $81.84. Consequently, we adjusted the stop-loss for the entire position to $73.80. Our strategy of gradual investment as the stock moves in our favor has allowed us to hold a half position with an adjusted average risk of 8.28%.
Analyzing the chart, a decline to our stop-loss level would suggest an unusual market behavior, indicating a potential misjudgment in our timing. Ideally, the stock would stabilize around $83.20, enabling us to escalate our investment to a full position while minimizing risk by adjusting the stop-loss.
Our proactive and incremental buying approach positions us advantageously, allowing for early entry without necessitating the formation of a handle. Despite an incomplete Stage 2 subsequent confirmations have reinforced our initial purchase decision.
Mastering Risk Management: Guide from TOP investorWelcome to the comprehensive guide on mastering risk management in cryptocurrency trading. In this detailed tutorial, we'll walk you through the essential principles of calculating stop losses, determining risk percentage per trade, and strategically placing stops for optimal risk mitigation. Whether you're a novice or an experienced trader, understanding and implementing effective risk management is paramount for sustained success in the volatile crypto market.
Opening a Position on TradingView
Brief overview of TradingView and accessing the "projection" section for long positions.
A step-by-step guide on how to initiate a long position using TradingView.
The 5 Fundamental Principles:
Introduction to the five key principles of effective risk management.
1: Trend Following
2: Not Gambling but Trading
3: Entry after retest
4: Stick to your strategy
5: Don't overtrade
Calculating Stop Losses
2.2 Risk Percentage Per Trade:
Explanation of the concept of risk percentage per trade (e.g., 0.5% of the trading capital).
Position sizing is the process of allocating a specific percentage of your crypto assets for trading, with the goal of managing risk effectively. To calculate your position size:
Determine Your Risk Per Trade:
Decide the percentage of your total account value you're comfortable risking on a trade.
Typically advised to risk 1–3% of your trading balance per trade.
For example, with a $5,000 balance and a 2% risk, you'd only lose $100 per trade.
Set Your Stop-Loss:
Determine your stop-loss level, the point at which you exit a trade if it moves against you.
The stop-loss helps control losses and is crucial for risk management.
Consider Position Size:
Use your risk percentage and stop-loss to calculate the position size.
Position size varies based on the distance of the stop loss; it's smaller for wider stops and larger for tighter stops.
Proper position sizing ensures consistent risk, regardless of the trade amount.
By following these steps, you can strategically size your positions, balancing risk and potential rewards in your crypto trading endeavors.
Strategic Placement of Stop Losses
Hiding Behind Local Lows:
The rationale behind placing stop losses just below local lows for effective risk containment.Beneath Manipulation Zones:
Strategic placement of stop losses under zones susceptible to manipulation.
The importance of avoiding regions where price is unlikely to return if manipulation has occurred.
Practical Examples
The Anatomy of a Good Stop Loss:
Visual representation of a well-placed stop loss using real-life chart examples.
4.2 Pitfalls of Poorly Placed Stop Losses:
Analysis of common mistakes in stop loss placement and their consequences.
Conclusion: Empowering Your Trading Journey
As we conclude this in-depth guide, remember that effective risk management is the cornerstone of successful trading. From understanding the basics of stop losses to strategically placing them based on market dynamics, each step contributes to minimizing potential losses and maximizing gains. Implement these principles in your trading strategy, adapt them to your risk tolerance, and embark on a journey of informed and calculated trading decisions.
💡 Mastering Risk | 📊 Setting Stop Losses | ⚖️ Calculating Risk Percentage | 🎯 Strategic Placement | 📈 Empowering Your Trades
💬 Engage in the discussion: Share your experiences with risk management, ask questions, and join a community committed to fostering intelligent and secure trading practices. 🌐✨
We are on top of the monthly channelHere after 2 days rally up, I guess the price action is giving nice short opportunity. I would consider Risk/Reward as 3:1 with 2% risk of total capital.
The given lines are weekly resistance and supports.
IRB INFRASTRUCTURE CHANNEL PATTERNIRB Infrastructure in Channel pattern wait for the signal then invest in the stock
BTCUSD - INSTITUTIONAL BUYING ZONE1. A breakout is about to happen at the support level.
2. A false breakout is when the institutions enter the market at respective level either support or resistance level.
3. But big institutions resist the breakout by buying huge quantities there forming a false breakout.
4. It was the right time to follow their footsteps.
BCTUSD - INSTITUTIONAL BUYING ZONE1. A breakout is about to happen at the support level.
2. A false breakout is when the institutions enter the market at respective level either support or resistance level.
3. But big institutions resist the breakout by buying huge quantities there forming a false breakout.
4. It was the right time to follow their footsteps.
EURUSD Jan 8th-12th 2024 Weekly Trade Setup-LONGJan 8th-12th 2024 Weekly Trade Setups
See blue long trade
1. Long Play: C- Probability due to being counter swing and counter Internal. The main reason to trade this would be the trade has momentum more bullish than bearish.
2. This would be an investor trade. Very Long Term
Entry Price: 1.08729
Stop Loss: 1.05789
Take Profit: 1.13105 or trail the trends and scale in when all risk is off the table
Please Follow me: I would love to scalp live on tradingview
Jan 8th-12th 2024 Weekly Chart Analysis
1. Price is in the weekly internal break of structure (See Green 1 for Reference) and ranging between the equilibrium of the weekly Ibos strong (See 2 for Reference) and the weekly Ibos low Weak (See 3 for reference)
2. Price is currently in the weekly A.1 Supply Zone with momentum to the upside. (See 1 for reference)
3. Price has had a change of character to the bullish upside in the weekly I-Bos swing range (Between 2 & 3)
4. As of Jan 06rd 2024 the weekly i-bos (Green 2 for reference) is protected and is the strong structure .
5. As for my risk management framework price is more likely to us this supply zone (W A.1) to generate a move to the downside using the buy-side liquidity to induce market participates.
6. The Framework is to trade from strong protected orderflow (square zone with W on right hand side See black* to the left hand side) for reference)
Cross-Checking Gold’s Supertrend Adaptively on MTFAGreetings Esteemed Investors,
I've received numerous inquiries regarding my gold (XAU) long position. Some of you have even suggested that I might be mistaken and consider XAU to be bearish. While I cannot assess your individual trades, I can provide a more detailed explanation of my rationale.
Comparing Indicators
Top Chart: Supertrend
This chart displays XAUUSD daily candles. I prefer daily candles to analyze gold over a year or more, as this helps filter out noise and reduce false signals. Additionally, I've applied TradingView's built-in Supertrend indicator, which often proves profitable over long timeframes. Observe the 2023 yearly chart of XAUUSD; buying when the Supertrend was positive (green) and selling when it was negative (red) would have been profitable.
Bottom Chart: Advanced Dynamic Threshold RSI
The bottom chart also displays XAUUSD daily candles for 2023, but here, multiple timeframes are considered using the Advanced Dynamic Threshold RSI indicator. This indicator generates weighted buy and sell signals based on RSI analysis, dynamic threshold calculation, and optional Bollinger Bands. Note the different RSIs under the candles (blue, green, and orange). The selling signals appear as red triangles and the buy signals are green triangles.
Comparison: Supertrend vs Advanced Dynamic Threshold RSI
Timelines
In 2023's XAUUSD market, I observed that Supertrend tends to indicate bullish trends earlier than my RSI, while my RSI might indicate bearish trends sooner than Supertrend. The dotted lines on both charts show the timeline of the detected trend. The sooner the trend was detected, the earlier the timeline started. This difference in timelines highlights the potential trading advantage of using both indicators together.
Exclusive & Inclusive Cross-Checking Methods
Inclusive Cross-Checking Principle
My Advanced Dynamic Threshold RSI indicator uses an inclusive cross-checking method, where RSI signals from different timeframes must align for a signal to be displayed. This ensures that all RSI indications are in consensus. However, this method makes the indicator slower to react on bullish shifts.
Exclusive Cross-Checking Principle
I used two charts and two indicators to demonstrate the potential of exclusive cross-checking. In this method, a long signal (Buy sticker) is generated if at least one of the indicators shows bullishness. In this case, one exclusive buy signal is sufficient to display the sticker. This method allows for quicker action on bullish trends.
Selective Cross-Checking Principle
Selective cross-checking combines exclusive and inclusive methods. The key is to understand which indicators tend to predict certain developments sooner. In 2023, for XAUUSD, Supertrend was faster for bullish trends and my indicator was faster for bearish trends. So, I wrote rules like the RSI signals of multiple timeframes must align, but I don't require the agreement of Supertrend and MFT RSI to open a position.
Latest Position
I opened a long position on XAUUSD on November 12th. The original stop loss was $1925, and the potential target is $2072. However, I'm using trailing profit, so the risk-reward ratio has changed. I currently wouldn't open a long position, but I'll keep the existing long position until the trail profit activates or the RSI indicator generates a sell signal.
Disclaimer:
This is not investment advice. Conduct your own research. This publication explains only one aspect of my approach, not my comprehensive strategy. The idea focuses on observations around the price action; reading the indicator descriptions is recommended for understanding of the calculations.
Sincerely,
Ely
Kelly Criterion and other common position-sizing methodsWhat is position sizing & why is it important?
Position size refers to the amount of risk - money, contracts, equity, etc. - that a trader uses when entering a position on the financial market.
We assume, for ease, that traders expect a 100% profit or loss as a result of the profit lost.
Common ways to size positions are:
Using a set amount of capital per trade . A trader enters with $100 for example, every time. This means that no matter what the position is, the maximum risk of it will be that set capital.
It is the most straight-forward way to size positions, and it aims at producing linear growth in their portfolio.
Using a set amount of contracts per trade . A trader enters with 1 contract of the given asset per trade. When trading Bitcoin, for example, this would mean 1 contract is equal to 1 Bitcoin.
This approach can be tricky to backtest and analyse, since the contract’s dollar value changes over time. A trade that has been placed at a given time when the dollar price is high may show as a bigger win or loss, and a trade at a time when the dollar price of the contract is less, can be shown as a smaller win or loss.
Percentage of total equity - this method is used by traders who decide to enter with a given percentage of their total equity on each position.
It is commonly used in an attempt to achieve ‘exponential growth’ of the portfolio size.
However, the following fictional scenario will show how luck plays a major role in the outcome of such a sizing method.
Let’s assume that the trader has chosen to enter with 50% of their total capital per position.
This would mean that with an equity of $1000, a trader would enter with $500 the first time.
This could lead to two situations for the first trade:
- The position is profitable, and the total equity now is $1500
- The position is losing, and the total equity now is $500.
When we look at these two cases, we can then go deeper into the trading process, looking at the second and third positions they enter.
If the first trade is losing, and we assume that the second two are winning:
a) 500 * 0.5 = 250 entry, total capital when profitable is 750
b) 750 * 0.5 = 375 entry, total capital when profitable is $1125
On the other hand, If the first trade is winning, and we assume that the second two are winning too:
a) 1500 * 0.5 = 750 entry, total capital when profitable is $2250
b) 2250 * 0.5 = 1125 entry, total capital when profitable is $3375
Let’s recap: The trader enters with 50% of the capital and, based on the outcome of the first trade, even if the following two trades are profitable, the difference between the final equity is:
a) First trade lost: $1125
b) First trade won: $3375
This extreme difference of $2250 comes from the single first trade, and whether it’s profitable or not. This goes to show that luck is extremely important when trading with percentage of equity, since that first trade can go any way.
Traders often do not take into account the luck factor that they need to have to reach exponential growth . This leads to very unrealistic expectations of performance of their trading strategy.
What is the Kelly Criterion?
The percentage of equity strategy, as we saw, is dependent on luck and is very tricky. The Kelly Criterion builds on top of that method, however it takes into account factors of the trader’s strategy and historical performance to create a new way of sizing positions.
This mathematical formula is employed by investors seeking to enhance their capital growth objectives. It presupposes that investors are willing to reinvest their profits and expose them to potential risks in subsequent trades. The primary aim of this formula is to ascertain the optimal allocation of capital for each individual trade.
The Kelly criterion encompasses two pivotal components:
Winning Probability Factor (W) : This factor represents the likelihood of a trade yielding a positive return. In the context of TradingView strategies, this refers to the Percent Profitable.
Win/Loss Ratio (R) : This ratio is calculated by the maximum winning potential divided by the maximum loss potential. It could be taken as the Take Profit / Stop-Loss ratio. It can also be taken as the Largest Winning Trade / Largest Losing Trade ratio from the backtesting tab.
The outcome of this formula furnishes investors with guidance on the proportion of their total capital to allocate to each investment endeavour.
Commonly referred to as the Kelly strategy, Kelly formula, or Kelly bet, the formula can be expressed as follows:
Kelly % = W - (1 - W) / R
Where:
Kelly % = Percent of equity that the trader should put in a single trade
W = Winning Probability Factor
R = Win/Loss Ratio
This Kelly % is the suggested percentage of equity a trader should put into their position, based on this sizing formula. With the change of Winning Probability and Win/Loss ratio, traders are able to re-apply the formula to adjust their position size.
Let’s see an example of this formula.
Let’s assume our Win/Loss Ration (R) is the Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss from the TradingView backtesting statistics. Let’s say the Win/Loss ratio is 0.965.
Also, let’s assume that the Winning Probability Factor is the Percent Profitable statistics from TradingView’s backtesting window. Let’s assume that it is 70%.
With this data, our Kelly % would be:
Kelly % = 0.7 - (1 - 0.7) / 0.965 = 0.38912 = 38.9%
Therefore, based on this fictional example, the trader should allocate around 38.9% of their equity and not more, in order to have an optimal position size according to the Kelly Criterion.
The Kelly formula, in essence, aims to answer the question of “What percent of my equity should I use in a trade, so that it will be optimal”. While any method it is not perfect, it is widely used in the industry as a way to more accurately size positions that use percent of equity for entries.
Caution disclaimer
Although adherents of the Kelly Criterion may choose to apply the formula in its conventional manner, it is essential to acknowledge the potential downsides associated with allocating an excessively substantial portion of one's portfolio into a solitary asset. In the pursuit of diversification, investors would be prudent to exercise caution when considering investments that surpass 20% of their overall equity, even if the Kelly Criterion advocates a more substantial allocation.
Source about information on Kelly Criterion
www.investopedia.com
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CCJ : BASE 0 DURATION / POSITION TRADECameco (NYSE:CCJ) released a strong print ahead of market open, and followed up with a strong call, as the market leader points towards a narrowing supply/demand gap and increased willingness for utilities to contract at higher prices:
CATALYSTS :
McArthur River - CEO Gitzel indicated that there's no change to the Company's strategy of pre-selling future production; there's a home for the additional supply from McArthur's restart, and they will not be growing production to build inventory or sell into an oversupplied spot market.
Contracting - the company added 40m lbs to the contract book in the first month of 2022, as the fundamental backdrop for demand improved; additionally, the pandemic and depletion in Kazakhstan has brought security of supply challenges for customers; "contracting begets contracting" and Cameco expects continued opportunities to lock in favorable, long-term contracts throughout 2022.
Sprott - The emergence of a "financial market" buyer in late 2021, namely Sprott (OTCPK:SRUUF) soaked up a lot of spot-market supply and pushed up spot prices; however, spot buying also removed customer complacency and pushed longer-term contract prices higher.
Kazakhstan - both trade policy concerns and instability in Kazakhstan have focused buyers on the origin of supply and helped Cameco take market share.
Having struggled with an oversupplied market since Fukushima, it appears the uranium market is finally coming around for low-cost, long-lived producers in secure jurisdictions, like Cameco. With favorable policy likely to come out of the European Taxonomy proposals, the sector (NYSEARCA:URA) appears well positioned for a strong 2022.
SOURCE:
CCJ after the call -- after a decade, the market looks to be turning, shares up ~15%, Nathan Allen, Seeking Alpha, Feb. 09, 2022
seekingalpha.com
Uranium: Potential Trade Of The Decade, Gain Exposure With SRUUF, URNM, Live Hard Investing, Seeking Alpha, Feb. 10, 2022
seekingalpha.com
