Tesla (TSLA): Trend Reversal or Just a Blip?Today, we are analyzing Tesla on the daily chart. After surviving the stronger sell-off at the 78.6% retracement level and avoiding the stop loss, we have witnessed a bullish divergence, which led to a significant upward push.
Starting from the end of Wave (1), Tesla left this wave with a breakout gap downward. This breakout gap has not been closed yet, and we continuously saw lower lows and lower highs, indicating a clear downtrend. Recently, the first higher high has formed, which is a strong indication of a trend reversal.
We believe Tesla might trade back towards the breakout gap, potentially testing it briefly before moving upwards towards the Point of Control. Between the levels of $190 and $230, trading volume has been low, and we don't expect this to change significantly. Therefore, a quick rise to around $260 is possible.
The key question now is whether the breakout gap will be tested. We maintain our view that Wave (2) concluded at approximately $139, and we should be on the way up. If the price falls below $139, a quick retrace to around $100 is likely.
Position
Bitcoin (BTC): Whats happening?Let's take a closer look at the Bitcoin chart, using a three-day timeframe. Here's the scenario we're observing: we've developed a significant bearish divergence. Additionally, Bitcoin is currently in a short but valid sideways phase, indicating an impending decision on direction—upward or downward break is expected in the coming weeks.
Our analysis leans towards anticipating a Wave 4 correction. We suspect that it hasn't completed at the 23.6% level since, given the strong upward momentum previously observed.
A deeper decline might be necessary before attempting to reach levels like $80,000, $85,000, or even $90,000. Nonetheless, we generally don't expect Bitcoin to surpass $100,000 in this cycle.
Concerning potential downturns, if Bitcoin falls below the $49,500 mark (50% retracement level), we foresee possible support between $44,000 and $41,600, marking our worst-case scenario for this phase. The mega worst case would involve a drop to $31,000, which, while not impossible, is highly improbable under current conditions and thus unrealistic to expect.
On the daily chart, the situation becomes a bit clearer after our previous analysis at $40,000. Since then, we've reached a new all-time high of $73,800 but have not regained our former strength, presenting the possibility that Wave (4) may have already concluded. There's also a chance that prices might dip again, and for this scenario, we plan to place a limit order at $55,236, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss just below the 50% level.
If you're considering this setup purely for spot buys with a long-term hold strategy, you might opt to set another limit at the worst case scenario.
We anticipate that the price should hold around $48,000. If it falls further, we'd consider secondary entries at around $40,000 and a third potential entry at $31,000.
Depending on where the turnaround occurs, we expect the subsequent rise for Wave (5) and the overarching Wave I to reach between $78,000 and $88,000.
Worldcoin: The Future of Digital Identity What happens when 90 plus percent of everything we interact with and see on the internet is created or enhanced by AI?
A new project has emerged with the potential to revolutionize the way we think about digital identity. Worldcoin, co-founded by Sam Altman of OpenAI, aims to create a global network of digital identities for a world where AI robots become harder to distinguish from humans.
At the heart of Worldcoin is the concept of "proof of personhood," which is becoming increasingly important as AI technology advances. The project utilizes an innovative approach to identity verification through the use of an "Orb" device that scans people's irises to ensure they are unique human beings.
"It is a way to verify humanness truly at population scale, independent of governments, able to scale to billions of people. And that is what we call World ID, which underlying is a biometric verification device that we call the orb, that you see here, that actually allows us to do that. So that is World ID, that's building block one. And two is a digital currency called Worldcoin that everyone that actually verifies for World ID receives ownership in it. That is the protocol level. And then also, to get all of this going, we built the first app that connects to the protocol that we call World App So that's a non-custodial wallet that lets you send money to your friends, lets you verify with your World ID and kind of brings together many of the technologies that came out of crypto in the last couple years and just makes them very easy to understand and use" - Alex Blania CEO, Tools For Humanity
But Worldcoin is not just about identity verification. The project also aims to provide a universal basic income through the distribution of its MIL:WLD token to every human. This bold vision could have a significant impact on financial inclusion and help to address some of the economic challenges that the world is currently facing.
The association with OpenAI and Sam Altman has generated significant interest in Worldcoin, with the project raising $115 million in a Series C round led by Blockchain Capital. The project's token, MIL:WLD , has seen a surge in price, reaching $9.35, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Now, let's look at the MIL:WLD token. With a total supply of 10 billion and a current circulating supply of 104 million, there's still a lot of room for growth. This is a potential proxy for the public to invest in OpenAI, the largest AI research company. And if the project continues to gain traction, the demand for the token could increase, potentially driving the price up.
While there are still many unknowns about the future of Worldcoin, the project's ambitious goals and innovative approach to identity verification make it one to watch in the world of cryptocurrency and AI.
Most will wait till MIL:WLD is listed on major exchanges....by than what price will it be!? As always, early bird gets the worm.
📈GAL Analysis: Potential Upside Momentum🛸👨🚀🔍After reaching resistance at 4.966, GAL has initiated a corrective move. Considering the Fibonacci retracement, a bounce from the 0.382 level suggests that breaking above 4.966 could lead to higher targets.
🌪Our Fibonacci-based targets from this point include 5.83 and a range between 6.5 to 7. In case of breaking below the support at 4.196, the last anchor within the range of 3.8 to 4 could potentially reverse the price.
📉A breakdown below the PRZ range on the 4H trend might alter the short-term trend, but keep in mind that the 1D and 1W charts remain bullish, reducing the likelihood of a significant market reversal based solely on the 4H chart.
📊Additionally, the volume of green candles outweighs that of red ones, suggesting potential upward movement in the future.
📈For long positions, it's advisable to wait for confirmation above 4.966 before initiating a position after the resistance breakout
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
🔔COMP Analysis: Consolidation Phase on 4H Chart⚡️🔍COMP is currently in a consolidation phase on the 4-hour timeframe, forming a sideways trading range. Considering the upward trend behind it, if the long trigger is activated, it would be favorable to open long positions with increased confidence.
📉For short positions, our risk trigger is at 85.37. Given the bullish nature of the market, I do not recommend entering short positions right now. Instead, wait for a breakdown below this level and consider entering short positions with a trigger at 76.92.
📈Regarding volume, COMP has encountered significant volume at the resistance of 95.21, followed by a decrease in volume. This indicates strong resistance that may not easily be breached. If you anticipate a bullish move, consider entering positions earlier than the resistance level, as it may break, and the confirmation candle may not provide timely validation.📊
💥As for indicators and oscillators, there is not much to add as the market is range-bound, and additional information may not be beneficial.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
📈GMX Futures: Potential Long Opportunities🚀🔍In the 4-hour timeframe, GMX exhibits a clear ascending trendline providing consistent support, yet to be breached. It once faked out the trendline, followed by higher lows, demonstrating resilience and breaking the resistance at 59.2 with conviction.
📈Following the break, two significant red candles with substantial volume are observed, serving as potential pullbacks. Should the current candle engulf the previous one, it presents a favorable opportunity to enter a long position in futures. Aim for a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 2, ensuring the use of stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses.
💎For those waiting on the sidelines, patience until the trigger at 64.35 is advisable before considering entry.
✅The target for long positions, apart from the risk-to-reward ratio of 2, could be set at 71.66, although current price levels may pose a challenge for immediate attainment.
📉In the event of a reversal at 59.2, a more aggressive entry could be considered at 57.52 in lower timeframes. However, exercise caution and promptly secure profits to avoid substantial losses.
🐢For a more conservative approach, waiting for confirmation at 54.01 before considering short positions is prudent.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
✅ Tia token analyses for SPOT position✍️
Celestia is a modular layer one blockchain network designed to solve the scalability problem in blockchains.
⚡️By separating the consensus and execution layers, this network allows developers to easily launch their own blockchains without the need for in-depth specialized knowledge, with high security and scalability.
For this reason, it has been noticed and welcomed by many users and other projects and very good investments have been made on it🔥
According to the mentioned contents and the very bright history of Celestia, we can expect that investing in this currency will be profitable for us.
Currently, in the technical discussion, Celestia's main token named Tia has broken its trend line and resistance line, and at the price of 16.20, it can be a suitable entry for spot buying.
✅Investing in cryptocurrencies is always risky and requires your own research and personal capital management
wen token , best meme coin in solana 😍🏅🏅🏅 Considering that in the new 2024 CMC survey, in which the Solana network is introduced as the best blockchain network⭐️⭐️⭐️
, and considering that huge investments have been made by the Solana team on some projects,
it can be expected that the popular meme coin of the Solana network It means WEN😍 that in the coming days, will experience its greatest PRICE with the main currency of this network, and it can be a suitable option for spot buying and holding.
According to the CHART and the technical discussion of this token, it is now in a very good place and by breaking the $0.0003211 ⚡️ level and close daily candle ⚡️ , it can be a good option for investment in the coming days.
Analyses about Manta token for SPOT ✍️
Fundamentally, Manta token is due to the use of zkSNARKs technology, ⚡️
which provides private and secure transactions for its users. It has a great potential to have many users.💥
⚡️Due to the great reception of people in the crypto space and the high capital demand from this network, as well as having powerful supporters such as Celestia, investing in the spot mode and also finding the right entry point to have a long position, Manta can be one of the best options of this the days be for us.
Also, according to the technical chart of this token, which is in a good position, it can be said that after breaking the 3.713 point, it is a good time to enter a long position.🔥
Gold Soars to Break Bearish Trend - Expected Correction Ahead!Today, gold managed to achieve a remarkable growth, breaking completely out of its downward trend.
Important resistance for gold lies between 2084 - 2088, and I expect that with the market opening next week, it will start a corrective move from this range or slightly higher at 2092 - 2096.
We have several reasons:
Firstly, the downtrend line has been breached, indicating the need for further buying pressure to sustain the upward momentum, which typically requires a correction in a financial market.
This rapid and extraordinary rise in the price of gold without any fundamental news or geopolitical tensions is unlikely and deceiving.
In my opinion, the targets for the downside move could be 2077 - 2064 - 2052.
I hope we all have a great weekend ahead! ❤️
✅ STOCK REVIEW: $EME booked +17% profits EME serves as an instructive case for two main reasons. First, entering the position required multiple attempts, with initial purchases on November 27th proving premature, leading to exits on December 21st and January 2nd at minor losses. A successful re-entry was made on January 18th, marked by a orange bubble, with an additional purchase on January 29th. Given the intraday volatility, I was stopped on the add alone on the January 29th.
The second notable aspect of EME was its consistent performance. Instead of rapid spikes, it steadily climbed, yielding a 20% gain over 19 days with minimal retracement. This exemplifies the preferred behavior for our investments, favoring steady growth over volatile surges. A partial sale was executed on February 13th for a 7.90% profit, and the remaining shares were sold on February 23rd for a 17.39% gain, as the stock became overextended.
Post-second purchase, the technical action mostly showed confirmations over violations, highlighting the stock's steady ascent without significant pullbacks. This emphasizes the value of patience and adherence to a stock demonstrating consistent, positive movement, allowing for substantial gains with reduced volatility.
✅ STOCK REVIEW: $SHOOSHOO experienced a significant upsurge, climbing from $30.35 to $44.23 from September to December, followed by a typical pullback of approximately 10.67% from its peak to a low of $39.45.
This correction is viewed positively as it likely indicates the elimination of less committed investors.
Notably, on February 7th, SHOO's price action dipped below the January 4th low before swiftly rebounding close to its previous highs. Such movements suggest a potential setup for a pivot point, expected to form within a few days to a week.
BUY POINT
Indeed, SHOO broke out to new highs on February 23rd, entering at $44.40. Our current stop loss is set at $42.00, presenting a risk of -4.74%. A Reversal alert was activated by the day's end, which is typical; we anticipate the price to surpass this level shortly. With earnings announced next week, having a buffer to maintain the position through the report would be advantageous.
✅ STOCK REVIEW: $OLLIThis week, we initiated a cautious buying strategy for NASDAQ:OLLI as it retracted to a strategic entry point, referred to as the low cheat for those who have read the Minervini books.
THE BUY
The buy signal was activated on February 20th when its price surpassed the peak from February 16th. Although our entry price at $79.18 was slightly higher than anticipated, we limited our purchase to a quarter of the planned position, setting a stop-loss at $72.30, which equates to a risk of 8.64%.
FOLLOW THROUGH ACTION
After the stock remained within the range of the breakout bar for a couple of days, it began to ascend, prompting us to increase our stake at $81.84. Consequently, we adjusted the stop-loss for the entire position to $73.80. Our strategy of gradual investment as the stock moves in our favor has allowed us to hold a half position with an adjusted average risk of 8.28%.
Analyzing the chart, a decline to our stop-loss level would suggest an unusual market behavior, indicating a potential misjudgment in our timing. Ideally, the stock would stabilize around $83.20, enabling us to escalate our investment to a full position while minimizing risk by adjusting the stop-loss.
Our proactive and incremental buying approach positions us advantageously, allowing for early entry without necessitating the formation of a handle. Despite an incomplete Stage 2 subsequent confirmations have reinforced our initial purchase decision.
Mastering Risk Management: Guide from TOP investorWelcome to the comprehensive guide on mastering risk management in cryptocurrency trading. In this detailed tutorial, we'll walk you through the essential principles of calculating stop losses, determining risk percentage per trade, and strategically placing stops for optimal risk mitigation. Whether you're a novice or an experienced trader, understanding and implementing effective risk management is paramount for sustained success in the volatile crypto market.
Opening a Position on TradingView
Brief overview of TradingView and accessing the "projection" section for long positions.
A step-by-step guide on how to initiate a long position using TradingView.
The 5 Fundamental Principles:
Introduction to the five key principles of effective risk management.
1: Trend Following
2: Not Gambling but Trading
3: Entry after retest
4: Stick to your strategy
5: Don't overtrade
Calculating Stop Losses
2.2 Risk Percentage Per Trade:
Explanation of the concept of risk percentage per trade (e.g., 0.5% of the trading capital).
Position sizing is the process of allocating a specific percentage of your crypto assets for trading, with the goal of managing risk effectively. To calculate your position size:
Determine Your Risk Per Trade:
Decide the percentage of your total account value you're comfortable risking on a trade.
Typically advised to risk 1–3% of your trading balance per trade.
For example, with a $5,000 balance and a 2% risk, you'd only lose $100 per trade.
Set Your Stop-Loss:
Determine your stop-loss level, the point at which you exit a trade if it moves against you.
The stop-loss helps control losses and is crucial for risk management.
Consider Position Size:
Use your risk percentage and stop-loss to calculate the position size.
Position size varies based on the distance of the stop loss; it's smaller for wider stops and larger for tighter stops.
Proper position sizing ensures consistent risk, regardless of the trade amount.
By following these steps, you can strategically size your positions, balancing risk and potential rewards in your crypto trading endeavors.
Strategic Placement of Stop Losses
Hiding Behind Local Lows:
The rationale behind placing stop losses just below local lows for effective risk containment.Beneath Manipulation Zones:
Strategic placement of stop losses under zones susceptible to manipulation.
The importance of avoiding regions where price is unlikely to return if manipulation has occurred.
Practical Examples
The Anatomy of a Good Stop Loss:
Visual representation of a well-placed stop loss using real-life chart examples.
4.2 Pitfalls of Poorly Placed Stop Losses:
Analysis of common mistakes in stop loss placement and their consequences.
Conclusion: Empowering Your Trading Journey
As we conclude this in-depth guide, remember that effective risk management is the cornerstone of successful trading. From understanding the basics of stop losses to strategically placing them based on market dynamics, each step contributes to minimizing potential losses and maximizing gains. Implement these principles in your trading strategy, adapt them to your risk tolerance, and embark on a journey of informed and calculated trading decisions.
💡 Mastering Risk | 📊 Setting Stop Losses | ⚖️ Calculating Risk Percentage | 🎯 Strategic Placement | 📈 Empowering Your Trades
💬 Engage in the discussion: Share your experiences with risk management, ask questions, and join a community committed to fostering intelligent and secure trading practices. 🌐✨
BTCUSD - INSTITUTIONAL BUYING ZONE1. A breakout is about to happen at the support level.
2. A false breakout is when the institutions enter the market at respective level either support or resistance level.
3. But big institutions resist the breakout by buying huge quantities there forming a false breakout.
4. It was the right time to follow their footsteps.
BCTUSD - INSTITUTIONAL BUYING ZONE1. A breakout is about to happen at the support level.
2. A false breakout is when the institutions enter the market at respective level either support or resistance level.
3. But big institutions resist the breakout by buying huge quantities there forming a false breakout.
4. It was the right time to follow their footsteps.
EURUSD Jan 8th-12th 2024 Weekly Trade Setup-LONGJan 8th-12th 2024 Weekly Trade Setups
See blue long trade
1. Long Play: C- Probability due to being counter swing and counter Internal. The main reason to trade this would be the trade has momentum more bullish than bearish.
2. This would be an investor trade. Very Long Term
Entry Price: 1.08729
Stop Loss: 1.05789
Take Profit: 1.13105 or trail the trends and scale in when all risk is off the table
Please Follow me: I would love to scalp live on tradingview
Jan 8th-12th 2024 Weekly Chart Analysis
1. Price is in the weekly internal break of structure (See Green 1 for Reference) and ranging between the equilibrium of the weekly Ibos strong (See 2 for Reference) and the weekly Ibos low Weak (See 3 for reference)
2. Price is currently in the weekly A.1 Supply Zone with momentum to the upside. (See 1 for reference)
3. Price has had a change of character to the bullish upside in the weekly I-Bos swing range (Between 2 & 3)
4. As of Jan 06rd 2024 the weekly i-bos (Green 2 for reference) is protected and is the strong structure .
5. As for my risk management framework price is more likely to us this supply zone (W A.1) to generate a move to the downside using the buy-side liquidity to induce market participates.
6. The Framework is to trade from strong protected orderflow (square zone with W on right hand side See black* to the left hand side) for reference)
Cross-Checking Gold’s Supertrend Adaptively on MTFAGreetings Esteemed Investors,
I've received numerous inquiries regarding my gold (XAU) long position. Some of you have even suggested that I might be mistaken and consider XAU to be bearish. While I cannot assess your individual trades, I can provide a more detailed explanation of my rationale.
Comparing Indicators
Top Chart: Supertrend
This chart displays XAUUSD daily candles. I prefer daily candles to analyze gold over a year or more, as this helps filter out noise and reduce false signals. Additionally, I've applied TradingView's built-in Supertrend indicator, which often proves profitable over long timeframes. Observe the 2023 yearly chart of XAUUSD; buying when the Supertrend was positive (green) and selling when it was negative (red) would have been profitable.
Bottom Chart: Advanced Dynamic Threshold RSI
The bottom chart also displays XAUUSD daily candles for 2023, but here, multiple timeframes are considered using the Advanced Dynamic Threshold RSI indicator. This indicator generates weighted buy and sell signals based on RSI analysis, dynamic threshold calculation, and optional Bollinger Bands. Note the different RSIs under the candles (blue, green, and orange). The selling signals appear as red triangles and the buy signals are green triangles.
Comparison: Supertrend vs Advanced Dynamic Threshold RSI
Timelines
In 2023's XAUUSD market, I observed that Supertrend tends to indicate bullish trends earlier than my RSI, while my RSI might indicate bearish trends sooner than Supertrend. The dotted lines on both charts show the timeline of the detected trend. The sooner the trend was detected, the earlier the timeline started. This difference in timelines highlights the potential trading advantage of using both indicators together.
Exclusive & Inclusive Cross-Checking Methods
Inclusive Cross-Checking Principle
My Advanced Dynamic Threshold RSI indicator uses an inclusive cross-checking method, where RSI signals from different timeframes must align for a signal to be displayed. This ensures that all RSI indications are in consensus. However, this method makes the indicator slower to react on bullish shifts.
Exclusive Cross-Checking Principle
I used two charts and two indicators to demonstrate the potential of exclusive cross-checking. In this method, a long signal (Buy sticker) is generated if at least one of the indicators shows bullishness. In this case, one exclusive buy signal is sufficient to display the sticker. This method allows for quicker action on bullish trends.
Selective Cross-Checking Principle
Selective cross-checking combines exclusive and inclusive methods. The key is to understand which indicators tend to predict certain developments sooner. In 2023, for XAUUSD, Supertrend was faster for bullish trends and my indicator was faster for bearish trends. So, I wrote rules like the RSI signals of multiple timeframes must align, but I don't require the agreement of Supertrend and MFT RSI to open a position.
Latest Position
I opened a long position on XAUUSD on November 12th. The original stop loss was $1925, and the potential target is $2072. However, I'm using trailing profit, so the risk-reward ratio has changed. I currently wouldn't open a long position, but I'll keep the existing long position until the trail profit activates or the RSI indicator generates a sell signal.
Disclaimer:
This is not investment advice. Conduct your own research. This publication explains only one aspect of my approach, not my comprehensive strategy. The idea focuses on observations around the price action; reading the indicator descriptions is recommended for understanding of the calculations.
Sincerely,
Ely