Position
GBP/USD Daily PrespectivePatterns can be failed very unexpectedly.
Patient is the key of success. Open your trad on a strong trend.
Later I will explain about how to adjust SL and TP.
I will also explain how to get reversal signal and have more confidence on your decision.
It's all about Risk to Rewards. Get yourself mentally ready and deal for long term instead of amateurish scalping.
Email me if you have any question: farsi.masoud@gmail.com
Wheat preparing for a shot to the sky again?It's all in place for a new potential turn...
Context
From extreme top to center to extreme low again. And here we are, at the L-MLH (Lower Medianline Parallel).
We had a nice push through the upper ML-H. And so we can expect the same below here (dashed red sliding).
In these higher timeframes we can see very good how price is reacting within a fork, which represents nothing more the a function of Newtons Law (Action/Reaction).
Price Action
A real pressing at the U-MLH of the red downsloping fork.
See the WRB around 2010? This rocket bar gives information...see where the support was later since 2014.
Trade Idea
Potential turn to the north could be within the green zone.
I allways prefere to wait for a sign, like a break of the red U-MLH and take the PB if i have a good stop.
Alltough, here i would take it at the red sliding too, with my stop behind the green lines.
Peace!
BIDU - Scary out the week hands and turn north again?Context:
monthly uptrendig intact
natural PB to lower extreme
Swings
seems that major pendulum swing has fullfilled its job, since the sinus wave looks completed
also the minor sin. wave completed
Price Action
orderly former flow to the downside
pressing - major fish in the pond wants cheaper price to fill his bag
create panic - whale create panic to collect it all from the week hands
price stops right at a center of a reaction line, and within the center box, where former accumulation was
Outlook
potential support in the range of 150/160
as sinus boxes often get washed, it's a good idea to start small and add to the position later
Trade Idea (Position Trade)
stopp needs to be below the box, plus some
start small between expected support range and build on further confirmation
profit a) at the upper MLH (P5), just little below the sliding
Trade Management
move B/E when Risk/Reward is @1.5
trail below real structure, or if price explode to the north, trail below wide range bars (see Jul. 14 and Jul. 15)
Non Charting Tools for Forex TradersI am listing the tools I use daily, during my trading schedule, when I trade the Forex market. I am using general descriptions in this list since I am not endorsing any particular paid service, or website.
Tradingview
A high quality charting platform with all the price charts and many powerful yet intuitive tools. Every single trade I take I chart it here first, marking exact entry, exit and stop loss levels. Some of my potential trades I publish, some I keep to myself. The forex chat is a great “tool” to share views on the market in real time and get other opinions to see if I missed anything.
Execution Platform
I see brokers as a necessary evil and use mine only to execute my trades. I don’t use its charting package, newsfeed, calendar, signals, expert advisors or anything like that. As soon as Tradingview will provide chart trading where we can select a broker of our choosing and execute our trades straight from the charts, this tool can be eliminated.
Economic Calendar
Even if you are a 100% technical trader and don’t take any news into account, at least you would know when major news events are happening (NFP, FOMC rate statement, etc) that could impact your trades, so you might want to stay out of the market. For traders who do take fundamentals into account, it provides you with the previous period and the expectation for the data to be released. It helps to build the picture for how events may move the markets. There are several to be found, find one that suits you.
Premium News Service
This is a feed of headlines that will inform you in real-time on what is happening in the markets. If a pair suddenly moves fifty pips, this news service will tell you why this is happening. The audio feed is the fastest so with urgent news you will not miss out. With un-planned news events this is essential. It’s a paid service and there are several on the market, I am not endorsing any in particular but am using one myself and I am always in the know.
Market Background News Sites
These are websites / financial blogs with markets news, background stories and editorial opinions that differ from the real time premium news services in that the articles are more research based and provide a deeper understanding into fundamental drivers behind the markets and how market players are positioning themselves. I usually read up on them once a day before I start trading. There are several good websites to be found.
Currency Correlation Overview
Pairs don’t move completely independent of each other. Trading highly correlated pairs simultaneously can increase your overall risk or eat your profits. Before entering a potential trade, I crosscheck the currency correlation of that pair with my already open trades (if any) and if its highly correlated (either positively or negatively) to one of them, I do not enter the trade. Since correlation differs per timeframe and changes over time, I use a real time online source.
Position Size Calculator
The difference in pips between entry and stop loss (pips at risk), your equity size and the trade risk you allow as a percentage are what you need to calculate the position size that does not exceed your risk tolerance. You can create a spreadsheet where you calculate this yourself for each trade, you can also find an online position size calculator and some brokers have this feature built into their interface. Regardless how you do it, this will be an essential tool.
Forex Cheat Sheets
I have created cheat sheets with overviews of all candlestick formations, basic and advanced price patterns, key Fibonacci ratios, etc. They help to quickly validate potential trading opportunities. Nowadays I hardly use them anymore, but I still have a hard copy on my desk just in case and they certainly helped me a lot as a beginning trader. I like the feeling that if I need to check a pattern, I have the information easily accessible at my fingertips.
Small long to retest highsIt looks like an ascending triangle could mark the beginning of the small rise I was expecting to re-test the recent highs, touching the long-term downtrend line, which we haven't done yet. These mid-range trades are a bit risky, but the signals are clear enough if it breaks $264. If you take this trade, it would probably be best to keep tight stops at $255-$258.
MGLN possible longer term breakoutMagellan seems to have broken out of a longer consolidation. The measured move of the channel points to a move of about 15% so I would take profits on a momentum loss at a first target around 72 or a little before.
We may see a “Pop” in Corn (???)(Forgive the terrible joke, but I couldn’t hold myself).
The 50% retracement on Corn suggests that a minor correction would be over making possible an “a-b-c” counting thus getting ready to resume the upward trend. However, at this point in time, it would be wise to keep an alternate count in sight as this correction could easily (and most likely, in my opinion) extend to the 0.618 fibo. I say this, as most indicators are either bearish or neutral on the short/mid run. Ichimoku, for instance, is “cloudy”.
Unlike soybeans (that has been on sideways for days now), corn has provided some interesting ups and downs for day-traders. For the long-term however I am still bullish and will keep holding my long position as long as prices stay within the 4-350 trading range, although I strongly suggest a stop-loss at levels close to 330 for money management matters.
Just for the records, I am a position trader (i.e. no day-trading).
EUR/GBP Prepare for longMy honest opinion is that one of the major mistakes globaly is that traders counter trend immidiately once price hits PRZ. Even with DT or DB you need some sort of comformation, at least break of DT/DB and wait for price to retrace back to the V bottom of DT structure or A top of DB. I found out that the best way to get comformation that trade has really changed is break of EMA 123 and break of trend line with at least 3 touches after that we should watch for retracment so 123 on lower timeframe and then trade break of the retracment. Better safe then sorry ;)
Resons are written on the chart!
If you have any question feel free to ask!
Best regards
Medium Term Target @ $244.73 with Elliott Wave CycleFrom a technical perspective the $230.65 resistance is a critical area for the upward break and any dip under $217.56 support should be watched as a change in momentum... In the medium-term Elliott Wave Cycle and the Fibonacci Retractment suggest that $244.73 can be seen as a Target with a stop loss at $217.56... Any comments or suggestions would be much appreciated...
Ready for $680 rocket.Enough said, we are done with the dump. On the way to $680 , or even the uppermost target of $720 .
Sit tight and watch! Not the time for any shorting... :) Everything's screaming BUY BUY BUY!
Credits: LowPro & LazyBear for the indicators.
Repost of TBT Long Bat PatternThis is a repost of my initial chart due to price having taken a few weeks to get down to the 'D' point area. I would definitely leave some room for any stop losses under that 'XA' leg in case price tries to retest the shelf its been bouncing off.
Again, I'm looking to get long around 61.30s to not miss the move. I would expect a retest of the B point, but I will usually just stick with a 1:2 R/R and move on.
Volume saw increase during ascent of the 'XA' leg and fell off during the decline and maturity of the pattern.
Also there is some noticeable momentum divergences found on both the stochastic oscillator and mac-d histogram for both the daily and weekly charts.
Clearer chart of Potential Bat Pattern for TBT on Weekly ChartI posted the Daily chart a couple days ago; here is the weekly chart which is a bit clearer for people.
Again, I'm looking to get long around 61.30s to not miss the move. I would expect a retest of the B point, but I will usually just stick with a 1:2 R/R and move on.
Volume saw increase during ascent of the 'XA' leg and fell off during the decline and maturity of the pattern.
Also there is some noticeable momentum divergences found on both the stochastic oscillator and mac-d histogram for both the daily and weekly charts.
Entry: 61.30
Stop Loss: 57.97
Profit Target: $67.96
GG broken out of retracment box, Is it still bullish?With the gold miners stocks tend to have a very volatile behavior. They correlate with the equities market as well as physical gold. Hence they tend to gap up and down. That's just its personality. Looking at the long term view, it still looks bullish and the inverse head and shoulder is still intact. Possible morning star reversal forming if it if gaps up tomorrow. (Other miners like GDX, SLW also have the same reversal pattern and have respected the retracement levels). For the miners to be bullish from this point onwards, the equities market and physical gold has to become bullish.( or physical gold has to be more bullish that the equities market, if the recent selling and market correction is to persist. Ignore intra-day volatility and focus on the long term view. Swing/ position trading