Leveraged money net positioning is reversing from extreme short levels in EURGBP futures. We do acknowledge the UK's recent positive political momentum amid political turbulence in the EU, however we believe the effect is in the price. On top of that, our fundamental macro model is slightly bullish EURGBP, certainly not indicating a further drop from these levels....
Looking at TVC:GOLD on the 3M(Monthly) Tf(Time-frame) from an investor perspective view of positioning; (long-term investing on the yellow stone) we can see it sitting at no men's land at the current price, as well Changing Character and Breaking Market Structer (Lower Low) in price action ; (Lows of Q2) Despite its Bearish Price Action on *3M , States...
-Anticipating upcoming week to have some bullishness in price action, looking for Technical Bounce at Trendline Support to long, while remaining opened in Short Positioning regarding Macro and Higher Time Frames. Every bounce may be short-lived, so bear in mind this scenario when looking for your next Short Opportunity on EUR/USD. Maybe you'll enjoy having a...
$EUR/USD is about to come in to contact with a Macro Resistance Trendline @ 1.13151$ One must beware and very careful when it comes in to looking for Buying Opportunities when breaking down the technical analysis on smaller time frames. With TVC:DXY reclaiming last week the broken Big Range of 100-105 zone, it appears so that with uptrend continuation of ...
Over the last year, there have been increasing concerns about threats to the US and global economies, mainly due to all the rate hikes from the Fed and other central banks. However, these fears have definitely not played out, as consumer spending and business hiring have shown surprising durability in the US, despite rate hikes and inflation. Several factors...
- $USD/CHF has been trading inside a range bound from basically since 2012. Past two months, price action came very close to testing the Lows of printed on January 2021 at 0.87576$ At the current Monthly Candlestick, Price its breaking out from a Falling Wedge (bullish pattern). Its measured move would put $USD/CHF at 0.97$ There sits a great opportunity to Buy...
- Awaiting Change of Character (CHoCH) for $USD/JPY on *W tf (weekly time-frame). Market Structure looks healthy in terms of Higher Lows on smaller time frames (1-4hr) Decent probable Shorting opportunity in case $USD/JPY fails CHoCH. Shorting opportunity on Resistance Trendline of Bearish Flag Pattern on *W is perfect. Pullbacks to at least 20 EMA *W + S/R...
Agricultural commodities, led by grains rose sharply in 2022. The two main catalysts for the upside in price were the Russia-Ukraine war alongside other supply challenges. There has been a number of cascading events around these two catalysts involving government interventions globally as food prices soared. However, from mid-October the renewal of the Black Sea...
Let’s begin with a recap. In 2022, precious metals were down 4.4% when the S&P500 Index was down 19.4%. That is an outperformance of 13.8% for precious metals against equities. Still, many firm believers of gold were, at times, questioned why gold was not scaling new highs in a year when inflation was doing exactly that. As Nitesh Shah outlines in his model,...
AUDUSD is getting ready for a massive move. We want to capitalize on this 625 pip move. This means we have to front run this trade by getting in it early and selling to the individuals who decide to come into the trade after we have. I proved 3 different trade targets for this trade based upon the 625 pip move - the 250 pip move and 100 pip move. we will hit all 3...
Buy on yesterday hammer. Today price break below the yesterday low. How to positioning yourself? When stock break the low point, sell your stock .. if it bounce back above the low .. buy back again. (Spring strategy) You can wait for end of the day just decide, but the price may continue to going way lower. Therefore it is preferable to cut now and buy back later.
Very interesting pair to watch, with huge macro potential to keep in mind! CHF has been one of the best performers this year and still keep strong. Mostly reasons are its safe-haven status which is in 'on' mode now due 'Coronavirus' crisis and SNB's new tag as currency manipulator which puts them on a close watch lately, so further CHF gains are opened even more....
Hey tradomaniacs, welcome to another free signal! ----------------------------- Type: Positioning Sell-Stop: 1.57861 Stop-Loss: 1.61764 Target 1: 1.51955 Target 2: 1.47781 Targt 3: 1.46359 Point of Risk-Reduction: 1.55 ----------------------------- LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor ...
High spreads between US10Y - DE10Y and US05Y - DE05Y, Can indicate some more downside risk for the euro. There is also some hidden divergence marked with green lines. European money is flowing into less riskier assets, as EU economic forecast have been slashed, while some banks are saying that the german economy is headed for a recession which is one of the...
Fundamentals: CFTC positioning: -72.1K - speculators extremely short on AUD -> often signals change in direction RBA - rate hold expected, personally I believe there will be a hawkish tone -> AUD supportive Core inflation, wages picking up steadily, GDP in Sept above consensus Little carry advantage for Aussie against EUR Technicals +Divergence (7%) from...
What points to USD strength fundamentally: - Monetary policy: FED rate median is at 2.15% end of 2018 vs ECB expected to hike only 2019 Q4 -> carry on USD side - CB balance sheet: FED BS decreasing since 2017 May, ECB still rising, tapering expected in '18 Sept - Inflation: US Core inflation 2.1% and forecasted to 2.4% vs Eurozone 1.1% and moderate upward...
... Are looking a little less extreme than they were before Trump's inauguration, whilst the currency represents great value. I'm inclined to take the under on Trump's doomsayers and this trade is the best way to express that view while collecting carry (presuming realised volatility continues to calm).
At extreme levels, however, the data doesn't look correct... I'm certain it is the most extreme since 2005!