Get started

Positionsize

Avoid Forex Mayhem with Good Risk ManagemenTrading forex? Stop gambling with your capital! This video exposes the massive mistake new traders make - using inconsistent lot sizes. It's a recipe for disaster, blowing accounts and crushing dreams. But there's good news. Discover the secret weapon of successful traders: consistent lot sizing. In this actionable video, you'll learn: Why fluctuating lot sizes blindfold you to risk and leave you exposed The simple formula to calculate safe and sustainable lot sizes How consistent sizing fuels confidence and boosts profits Bonus tips to maximize your forex trading performance Say goodbye to trading nightmares and hello to controlled growth! Watch this video now and take control of your forex future. P.S. Don't be the trader left behind. Watch before it's too late!
Education
by tradingwithanthony
Kelly Criterion and other common position-sizing methodsWhat is position sizing & why is it important? Position size refers to the amount of risk - money, contracts, equity, etc. - that a trader uses when entering a position on the financial market. We assume, for ease, that traders expect a 100% profit or loss as a result of the profit lost. Common ways to size positions are: Using a set amount of capital per trade . A trader enters with $100 for example, every time. This means that no matter what the position is, the maximum risk of it will be that set capital. It is the most straight-forward way to size positions, and it aims at producing linear growth in their portfolio. Using a set amount of contracts per trade . A trader enters with 1 contract of the given asset per trade. When trading Bitcoin, for example, this would mean 1 contract is equal to 1 Bitcoin. This approach can be tricky to backtest and analyse, since the contract’s dollar value changes over time. A trade that has been placed at a given time when the dollar price is high may show as a bigger win or loss, and a trade at a time when the dollar price of the contract is less, can be shown as a smaller win or loss. Percentage of total equity - this method is used by traders who decide to enter with a given percentage of their total equity on each position. It is commonly used in an attempt to achieve ‘exponential growth’ of the portfolio size. However, the following fictional scenario will show how luck plays a major role in the outcome of such a sizing method. Let’s assume that the trader has chosen to enter with 50% of their total capital per position. This would mean that with an equity of $1000, a trader would enter with $500 the first time. This could lead to two situations for the first trade: - The position is profitable, and the total equity now is $1500 - The position is losing, and the total equity now is $500. When we look at these two cases, we can then go deeper into the trading process, looking at the second and third positions they enter. If the first trade is losing, and we assume that the second two are winning: a) 500 * 0.5 = 250 entry, total capital when profitable is 750 b) 750 * 0.5 = 375 entry, total capital when profitable is $1125 On the other hand, If the first trade is winning, and we assume that the second two are winning too: a) 1500 * 0.5 = 750 entry, total capital when profitable is $2250 b) 2250 * 0.5 = 1125 entry, total capital when profitable is $3375 Let’s recap: The trader enters with 50% of the capital and, based on the outcome of the first trade, even if the following two trades are profitable, the difference between the final equity is: a) First trade lost: $1125 b) First trade won: $3375 This extreme difference of $2250 comes from the single first trade, and whether it’s profitable or not. This goes to show that luck is extremely important when trading with percentage of equity, since that first trade can go any way. Traders often do not take into account the luck factor that they need to have to reach exponential growth . This leads to very unrealistic expectations of performance of their trading strategy. What is the Kelly Criterion? The percentage of equity strategy, as we saw, is dependent on luck and is very tricky. The Kelly Criterion builds on top of that method, however it takes into account factors of the trader’s strategy and historical performance to create a new way of sizing positions. This mathematical formula is employed by investors seeking to enhance their capital growth objectives. It presupposes that investors are willing to reinvest their profits and expose them to potential risks in subsequent trades. The primary aim of this formula is to ascertain the optimal allocation of capital for each individual trade. The Kelly criterion encompasses two pivotal components: Winning Probability Factor (W) : This factor represents the likelihood of a trade yielding a positive return. In the context of TradingView strategies, this refers to the Percent Profitable. Win/Loss Ratio (R) : This ratio is calculated by the maximum winning potential divided by the maximum loss potential. It could be taken as the Take Profit / Stop-Loss ratio. It can also be taken as the Largest Winning Trade / Largest Losing Trade ratio from the backtesting tab. The outcome of this formula furnishes investors with guidance on the proportion of their total capital to allocate to each investment endeavour. Commonly referred to as the Kelly strategy, Kelly formula, or Kelly bet, the formula can be expressed as follows: Kelly % = W - (1 - W) / R Where: Kelly % = Percent of equity that the trader should put in a single trade W = Winning Probability Factor R = Win/Loss Ratio This Kelly % is the suggested percentage of equity a trader should put into their position, based on this sizing formula. With the change of Winning Probability and Win/Loss ratio, traders are able to re-apply the formula to adjust their position size. Let’s see an example of this formula. Let’s assume our Win/Loss Ration (R) is the Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss from the TradingView backtesting statistics. Let’s say the Win/Loss ratio is 0.965. Also, let’s assume that the Winning Probability Factor is the Percent Profitable statistics from TradingView’s backtesting window. Let’s assume that it is 70%. With this data, our Kelly % would be: Kelly % = 0.7 - (1 - 0.7) / 0.965 = 0.38912 = 38.9% Therefore, based on this fictional example, the trader should allocate around 38.9% of their equity and not more, in order to have an optimal position size according to the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly formula, in essence, aims to answer the question of “What percent of my equity should I use in a trade, so that it will be optimal”. While any method it is not perfect, it is widely used in the industry as a way to more accurately size positions that use percent of equity for entries. Caution disclaimer Although adherents of the Kelly Criterion may choose to apply the formula in its conventional manner, it is essential to acknowledge the potential downsides associated with allocating an excessively substantial portion of one's portfolio into a solitary asset. In the pursuit of diversification, investors would be prudent to exercise caution when considering investments that surpass 20% of their overall equity, even if the Kelly Criterion advocates a more substantial allocation. Source about information on Kelly Criterion www.investopedia.com
Editors' picks
Education
by sofex
2
Position Size Calculation with Fees - Handle any LeverageExample: The account size is $4500. We risk 2%, 90 cash, for this 2R trade. If the trade idea is a success we would now have 4678 cash in our account a profit of: 178 cash And if loss, a total of 4410 cash, 90 cash loss) Is this correct? Explanation: The example seems correct but only without the fees in calculation. Even small fees like e.g. 0.04% Taker (market orders) and 0.02% Maker (limit orders) add up a lot. A lot! The example does need a position size of $56250 , which would be $22.5 in fees just to open the position and the same amount again when the stop loss (market order) triggers or $11.25 when exit with a limit order. The example does clearly need a leverage of 15 or higher to open that position size. - Tradeable balance with 15x leverage: 4500 * 15 = 67500 - And to get a loss of 90 cash within 0.16 %: 56250 / 100 * 0.16 = 90 See Image on Chart: Calculation without fees We will be fine with any kind of Leverage if we calculate it like that on every trade. The PnL is calculated from the real account balance. So we are on the right track to not blow our account. If we calculate it with the Fees in mind, the example with 0.04% fees for open and close, then the position size would be $28125 See Image on Chart: Calculation with fees The calculations show, even when it hits the Profit Target, the real Risk Reward lowers by a large amount . (The Example uses the same taker fee for open and close) I personally recommend to automate those ever recurring calculations and set the orders via an API. Relative easy to code in e.g. Python. I'm not allowed to link any external links here but some tools can be found on my Twitter (I'm not really active there otherwise): - Some link to a Microsoft Excel sheet, which was used for the calculation images. It may be useful for some, just make a copy. - And a public open source API Trade App can be found on my GitHub, link in the same Twitter feed. No other funny links else. And as last goodie: A small snippet example used in my automated strategies in PineScript, strategy.equity represents the account balance: //Example 0.001 is minumum order varip input_mathround = input(3, 'Decimal Math Round Size') varip pnllosspercent = input(2, 'Dynamic PnL Loss - Percent of Balance') getLongSizeDynamic(_entry, _sl) => pnl = strategy.equity / 100 * pnllosspercent sl_percent = (_entry - _sl)/_entry size_cash = pnl / (sl_percent*100) * 100 size_r = 1 / _entry * size_cash size = math.round(size_r, input_mathround) size There are for sure different ways to optimise the math for the own liking. This 'tutorial' is meant to give small insight into a proper position sizing, that you may too will not fear the leverage as useful tool when used correct. With the calculations above, no matter if 10, 50, 100 or even crazy 1000x Leverage shall not blow our accounts! Still always keep the fees in mind, they take our money!
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Hhan44
Position sizing 101 - how to avoid crippling lossesPosition sizing is determining the correct size of the position based on the amount of money you risk on the particular trade. Before you can do that, you need to figure out what is the maximum acceptable risk of the trade. That risk is usually expressed as a % of your balance, that you are willing to lose. To make sure you don’t lose more than this amount traders set a Stop Loss order which is the real maximum exposure of your position. If you don’t use a stop loss, you are exposing your entire portfolio! Where to put a stop loss? That’s where Technical Analysis can be handy. The majority of retail traders would look at the chart to find out – usually behind some support/resistance level or based on some volatility indicator, such as ATR Rule of thumb: Risk between 1-3% of your portfolio balance on each position. This way any single individual loss won’t wipe your account and break your spirit. And more importantly, even a string of losses will leave you with enough ammunition to recoup the losses. Have a clear approach to risk: 1. Set a risk limit for each trade, asset in general, day, week, and month (you won’t risk more than X account) 2. Determine the right position size and start small 3. Increase the position size of trades slowly if your account grows 4. Lower size or switch back to paper trading if your account doesn’t Two types of position sizing methods: Fixed and flexible Fixed position size Using the same position size for every trade Good for finding out if your strategy has an edge Make sure you come back and reevaluate position size periodically. Flexible position size Using a percentage of the current balance Cluster of wins makes every following win larger Cluster of losses makes every following loss smaller How to calculate the correct position size: You need to know 1. Trading account size 2. Acceptable risk (in % per each trade) 3. Invalidation point (in form of a distance from the open price) The formulae: Position size = Trading account size x Acceptable risk / Invalidation Example: 1. Trading account size = $10,000 2. Acceptable risk = 1% 3. Invalidation point = 4% drop in market price Position size = $10,000 * 0,01 / 0,04 = $2,500 This way you will always risk losing $100 no matter where your Stop Loss goes! If Stop Loss must be wider, say 8%, the calculation is: Position size = $10,000 * 0,01 / 0,08 = $1,250 Doubling the distance to our stop loss has us reducing our position size by half to maintain the same possible loss. How to set position size in Tradingview 1. Use the Long position or Short position drawing tool 2. Input your account balance 3. Select the risk you're willing to undertake - either as a % of your account balance or as a monetary value 4. Enter the market price of your Stop Loss 5. Look at the "Quantity" field in the drawing tool = that is the position size you should use to adhere to your risk settings.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CleoFinance
2
Statistical approach to risk management - Python scriptThis script can be used to approximate a strategy, and find optimal leverage. The output will consist of two columns, one for the median account size at end of trading, and one for the share of accounts liquidated. The script assumes a 100% position size for the account. This does not take into account size deviations for earnings and losses, so use with a grain of salt if your positions vary greatly in that aspect. Code preview cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/592684708551327764/848701541766529034/carbon.png TradingView does not allow posting external links until you've reached a specific reputation, so i can't use the url feature Input explanation WINRATE : chance of winning trade AVGWIN : average earning per winning trade AVGLOSS : average loss per losing trade MAX_LEVERAGE : maximum leverage available to you TRADES : how many trades per account you want to simulate ACCOUNTS : how many accounts you want to simulate the inputs used in the source code are from one of my older strategies, change them to suit your algorithm Source code pastebin.com/69EKdVFC Good luck, Have fun -Vin
VEducation
by Vindruee
BTC Sell Off Here is What Happened and what you can learnHello and Thanks for stopping by, this is my first tutorial post so go easy on me haaaaa Ok well all is self explanatory really as you can read by the chart . Lessons that can be learned from this can be repeated over and over again but the truth is we will always see the same scenario playing out over and over again because that is what feeds those who are succesfull at trading . Simply put what you see on the chart is a example of greed and stupidity, Ok we have seen it all 1000s of times before but someone out there does not want to make the same mistakes again and this post is designed to help you better prepare yourself for this eventuality and give you some positive guidelines to improve as a trader . 1, Do not Long Tops and dont short bottoms . FOMO might work some of the time but most of the time you will regret it 2, Plan the Trade and trade the plan or you will only plan to Fail 3, Patience always pays * wait for the Retrace or the breakout depending on the trade you want to take with a solid plan in mind 4, Always use a SL and know when and where you are wrong. Risk management is so important learning to protect your capital keeps you in Business 5, There is a time and a place for Leverage learn this without going BUST 6, Understand the importance of Position size and use a Position size Calculator if that makes it easier 7, Learn the power of Footprint Charts and how to use that candle Data to your advantage. Seeing Millions at the top or bottom really is a great advantage 8, Take profits on the way up or down at strategic points , Locking in profits guarantees you get paid and you wont get caught out being Greedy 9, The market has no emotions only traders do ! If you are emotional you are probably taking too much risk of your capital... 10, Accept that being wrong in Trading is Normal, provided you calculate every trade you will only lose the minimum and live to trade another day 11, Most of the time There will always be that grab Liquidity move, up or down, remember that ! Rather than placing a SL where its crowded. Don t think Like the Herd 12, Learn why Open Interest is important and how funding impacts you ! This is probably overlooked by many whom trade BTC Perpetuals I will leave you with this Quote " The Market does not know you exist. You can do nothing to influence it. You can only control your behaviour" Thankyou for reading my post and I hope it helps somebody .
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by SJTRADESFUTURES
2
Melvin Capital: the adventures of an infinite size short sellerYet another degenerate bites the dust. In the markets, there is a once every 100 years 5 sigma event every few months. Some of you may remember the James Cordier of optionsellers dot com emotional apology video, after he got wiped out by a short squeeze on Natural Gas in 2018. I looked into it back then and this guy was an out of the money naked option seller using extreme leverage. These people, that get wiped out, every time they are psychopaths. This time we are looking at stocks, and the guy running Melvin Capital was a madman. This guy single-handedly shorted between 50 and 100% of Gamestop all available shares. The ADV is ~3.5MM shares which is around 5% roughly. I do not trade stocks (I do Forex CFDS & CME commodity futures) but I know enough to know shorting all by yourself more shares in percentage than the second highest shorted stock entire short interest, that's asking for trouble. I do not know what limits one should set, as a famous stock expert would say "it depends on your personal risk tolerance", but the adv would be a good place to start maybe? 5% of float seems big but reasonable? When he shorted CD projekt he only used 0.6% of the outstanding shares according to this article. Funny thing: they say he did not make as much as he should have because the rate was not favorable. They know this or they are guessing? The reckless CEO of Melvin did not bother to open an FX position to hedge? He likes to live dangerously, or maybe he was making an FX bet. www.world-today-news.com On this page they claim to have a list of stocks Melvin is short of: whalewisdom.com Reddit found a troll in a very dangerous position, and so they went whale hunting. But I think it's other institutions that took down the whale actually, and the heroic "little guy" just joined late (as usual) and is now left holding the bag. Melvin loss was entirely the responsibility of the head manager, risk managers and whoever came up with the idea of shorting more than 50% of shares. It's always the same story. Before getting wiped out James Cordier published (on another site) a trading idea called "option selling opportunities so good they're scary" and was persuaded he could not lose. I bet the same happened here. Gabe Plotkin had big success (50% returns, one of the best funds), got lucky and made easy money, got excited (this is the "don't get emotional" part), went in big, and then got punished. I doubt Gabe Plotkin and James Cordier are excited today.
NYSE:GMEEducation
by MrRenev
11
A brief introduction to RISK MANAGEMENT:If you like my ideas and the work I do, please check out the links in the signature and give me a like ;). As I tend to get a lot of questions about this topic, most traders don’t seem to understand basic risk management in trading! From my experience capital protection and risk management are probably the most important part of any trader's skillset. So that is why I wanted to address this in a more elaborate educational Idea. The kind of questions I get: - I’ve got half my portfolio in this coin and the other in this do you think I need to sell. - Do you think I need to sell my … and buy … - I've been holding this since it was at that price do you think it will go down more ... I know these don't necessarily seem like bad questions to most people, but that is not actually how you should be trading. Note: In crypto trading lots of people (myself included) keep their portfolio in BTC or ETH. Now in doing this, you should not look at the dollar amount of the asset, but the goal should be to increase the amount of the asset you hold. If you are going to switch every five minutes because you think about the dollar amount of said asset, I would advise you to stay in dollar and trade from there. Now with that little particularity out of the way, we can look at how trading should be done. It is known most retail traders take positions with their entire capital and then when it drops they get scared and don’t want to sell because psychologically they can’t handle the risk. Now, this is the best way to blow up your entire portfolio in the shortest amount of time. In trading, you can never be sure a trade will be a winner so you should always make sure you can handle a string of losers without it affecting the bottom line too much. Example of how human psychology works in regards to this is a study done around the Kelly Criterion formula: ( This example is from the Wikipedia page of the Kelly Criterion ) Each participant in this study was given $25 and asked to bet on a coin that would land heads 60% of the time. Participants had 30 minutes to play, so could place about 300 bets, and the prizes were capped at $250. The behavior of the test subjects was far from optimal: Remarkably, 28% of the participants went bust, and the average payout was just $91. Only 21% of the participants reached the maximum. 18 of the 61 participants bet everything on one toss, while two-thirds gambled on tails at some stage in the experiment. Using the Kelly criterion and based on the odds in the experiment (ignoring the cap of $250 and the finite duration of the test), the right approach would be to bet 20% of one's bankroll on each toss of the coin. If losing, the size of the next bet gets cut; if winning, the stake increases. If the bettors had followed this rule (assuming that bets have infinite granularity and there are up to 300 coin tosses per game and that a player who reaches the cap would stop betting after that), an average of 94% of them would have reached the cap, and the average payout would be $237.36. In this particular game, because of the cap, a strategy of betting only 12% of the pot on each toss would have even better results (a 95% probability of reaching the cap and an average payout of $242.03). Now, this is why we do not want to trade like this. We should choose a risk level we are comfortable with per trade and keep this consistent. You can use the Kelly Criterion which can be difficult to do because it requires the win probability per trade for the calculation. Now you could get this by trading a certain trade setup you like to trade, let’s keep it simple, a 100 times. By doing this, you could gage the probability of this setup being a winner and that would allow you to use the Kelly Criterion formula. For beginners, a simpler way of doing this is the 1 percent rule. This means you risk 1% of your portfolio per trade. Simple example: You have a risk-reward per trade of 1/1.5 and your strategy has a win rate of 50% of the time and you make 100 trades on a 10000 dollar portfolio. You would end up with a 25% gain after 100 trades even though the 50 losing trades lost you a total of 5000 dollars. Because of the risk-reward the winners got you 7500 dollars which brings you to 12500 dollars in the end. This is a simple example but it shows the importance of both risk/reward and position size. Of course in reality it would play out slightly different. You would recalculate after every trade if your portfolio decreases due to a loss, which means you reduce your positions to make sure your risk stays at 1% of your portfolio and if you win you increase your positions to do the same. Another thing people get wrong with this rule is they start just betting the same position on each trade of let's say 5% and think they will get out when they lose 1%. This does not work!!! You should look at your setup and where you want to place your stop and look at the percentage between your stop and your entry. If this is for example 20%, you take your 1% risk tolerance and divide it by 20, then multiply it by 100 and that will be your position size. If you are using leverage you will need to divide this position size by the amount of leverage used. An example of risk-reward is shown above. From my experience, some general rules I use which tend to improve your results on top of a risk management system as described above: 1. Cut your losers quickly and keep your winners. 2. Don't change your stop unless you take profit and move it above break even. 3. Always place your stop at a technical level and not a random percentage, for example, the last highest low. Of course, you can adapt this to fit your trading strategy and style but the basics will be the same. I hope this was helpful and if anything is unclear feel free to ask me a question through chat.
Education
by VrotteOtter
GBPJPY : Long SetupHello traders, We have these in the GBPJPY Parity: - Cup and Handle Chart Pattern - A price closing above the Weekly Resistance : 142.845 - The trend line is broken and it has pulled back on 1W Chart and still on Trendline : -When we look at the Terminals, a position in favor of relatively GBP : * Japanese Yen COT Positions and Price Change in Autonomous LSTM Period : * GBP COT Positions and Price Change in Autonomous LSTM Adaptive Period : As a result, we see a 30% increase in their positions, although the price of GBP increased in the same period. Japanese Yen positions decreased by more than 13% over the same period. - In this analysis, one negativity can be mentioned : You can wait for a closing above the Minor trendline and open a position like that. I'm sharing this idea with the position of half position both in order not to forget and not to ignore this factor. If our analysis reaches the stop value, I will re-arm the top of the resistor for the long position with twice the position size. Parameters: Position Size : %0.5 Risk/Reward Ratio : 1/3.02 (3.02) Stop-Loss : 141.577 Goal : 147.747 NOTE: If we fail, we will try again with 1% Position Size when conditions occur regardless of the direction difference. Finally, if you think this analysis is useful to you, press the LIKE button ) Regards.
Long
by Noldo
3
Improved Version : How Do "Whales" Trade ? CAUTION : EXPERIMENTAL Hello friends. Whale trading system has been developed and placed on a more reasonable ground. So this publication is an improved version of the educational idea : How do "Whales" Trade? Before Starting In related ideas, you can see the first version and the script I used to create this idea. And there is an intermediate version that shows the logic after separating the bull - bear zones. RULES First of all, there is absolutely no short position to reduce the risk of this system. Negative regions are sales regions. (Not short position) Position sizes are shown in the presentation.We split our capital 100 . (Or you can accept your entire position size 100.) We certainly don't try with all our capital. It can be tested with reasonable capital allocated for instruments. At each change of region, we dispose or purchase all of our position size. And the values in the presentation are our graded position amounts . Now that we've benefited from regional changes, I found 10 levels reasonable. Let's write our position sizes here too : STAKES Pos Size 1 : % 0.4329 Pos Size 2 : % 0.8658 Pos Size 3 : % 1.2987 Pos Size 4 : % 2.1645 Pos Size 5 : % 3.4632 Pos Size 6 : % 5.6277 Pos Size 7 : % 9.1 Pos Size 8 : % 14.719 Pos Size 9 : % 23.81 Pos Size 10 :% 38.52 Note : Position size ratios are formed by coefficients based on gold ratio to provide a logical example. Let us now examine the region from January 22, 2018 to August 26, 2019. I'm doing trade and distributional trades for 1 bar after eye decision and signals to be fair. TRADES AND TRICKS After the sell order arrives on January 22, we wait until distributional buying points arrive. First distributional Buy Signal was on 7 May 2018 (close ) , so it means : Our first Distributional Buy was between 7 - 14 May 2018. Let's start : Distributional Buys : 1.Buy : 8572.5 Position Size : %0.4329 2.Buy : 7847 Position Size : %0.8658 3.Buy : 7456.5 Position Size : %1.2987 4.Buy : 6563.5 Position Size : %2.1645 5.Buy : 6786.5 ==> Rejected , because price is higher than last Buy. 5.Buy : 6507.5 Position Size : % 3.4632 6.Buy : 6396 Position Size : % 5.6277 7.Buy : 5837.5 Position Size : %9.1 8.Buy : 3940 Position Size : %14.719 9.Buy : NET Long Signal : 3493.5 Position Size : The Rest ==> (100 - All) = %62.328 Distributional Sells 1.Sell : 10919 Position Size : %0.4329 (May be higher than the amount of earnings. For example : % 25 Here we are improvising according to obligatory market conditions. I wrote the first rate in order to follow the example rule, but I would sell between 25% and 40% in live trade. Because the profit is too high.) 2.Sell : 10146 Position Size : %0.8658 ( Normally I shouldn't have sold it because it was lower than the first sale. But the profit is still very high, but it is decreasing, so I sell. A much higher quantity can be sold here, as is the same on the top. I'm writing the next rate to keep the rule.) 3. Sell : 11376 Position Size : % 60 ( Now profitability is at its peak , I ignore the stake rules and going to improvise. Instead, the first 3 - distributional sales: 10% - 20% - 40% with values such as making it much more reasonable.) 4.Sell : NET Sell Signal : 9970.5 Position Size : The Rest ==> (100 - All) = %38.8 Note : I could have gone a lot more profitable than my earnings, but to avoid stretching the template, I applied the first 2 ratios. A professional could have been more profitable here: Example: 40 - 60 and close. So I'm going to calculate these rates. CALCULATIONS ( For 100 unit = Full Position Size ) Average Cost : (8572.5 * 0.4329 + 7847 * 0.8658 + 7456.5 * 1.2987 + 6563.5 * 2.1645 + 6507.5 * 3.4632 + 6396 * 5.6277 + 5837.5 * 9.1 + 3940 * 14.719 + 3493.5 * 62.238) / 100 = (3711.04 + 6793.93 + 9683.76 + 14206.7 + 22536.8 + 35994.77 + 53121.25 + 57992.9 + 217428.5 ) / 100 Average Cost = 4215 Average Sell : (10919 * 0.4329 + 10146 * 0.8658 + 11376 * 60 + 9970.5 * 38.8 ) / 100 = (4726.84 + 8784.41 + 682560 + 386855.4) / 100 Average Sell Price = 10829.27 SUMMARY Percentage of net earnings per unit (Full Position Size): ((10829.27 - 4215 ) / 4215) * 100 = %156.92 In doing so, commercials provided liquidity to the markets and did not have the problem of not finding buyers. Stoploss here means emptying the whole position, for me 4 bars means stoploss in all directions. More importantly, increasing rates will not harm us in non-trend areas. Because we start with low rates. Although comments and improvisation are very important, I tried to explain the system outlines by linking them to certain rules. Now we have gone more systematically than the first version !
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by Noldo
4
How Do 'Whales' Trade ? Hey! Now calm down and erase all of your coffee fortune-telling stories, throw the pump and dump signals you've been waiting for! You can only draw trend lines and long-term channels. If you're still not mad at me, we're starting now ! Trade is a relative concept and the buyer meets the seller relatively. Therefore, trendlines and channels can provide little information about trendlines in relatively time-dependent breaks. I am not a licensed broker at first, but I spent a lot of time in the CFTC and COT section, especially in interpreting Commercial positions with all other relative indicators and volume. The so-called concept of the whales in recent times is actually producers and owners of large official capital. They have to divide the amount of sales they find in their sales because the positions they carry are huge. While the price is falling while buying, they have to make gradually while the price is rising. Or they will not find buyers for their goods. Now we will consider a trade cycle with reasonable figures in the figures you see in the picture. We are doing it first bar after signal with average price as real trade : Example Rule : Our position size : Last block * 1.5 Distributional Buy Blocks : 1.Buy point = 1298.3 ( Position size = %1 ) 2.Buy point = 1214.1 (Position size = %1.5 ) 3.Buy point = 1194.5 (Position size = %2.25 ) 4.Buy point = 1193.1 (Position size = %3.375 ) Cost = (1298.3 * 1 + 1214.1 * 1.5 + 1194.5 * 2.25 + 1193.1 * 3.375) / 8.125 = 1210.4 Distributional Sell Blocks : Example Rule : Let's divide our sales into same levels according to our expectations. But in risky places that we think to be a definite negative trend, let's definitely empty our position and not carry a position. If the negative trend came after the first sale, then let's clear it all. All experts draw channels and trends for this. (I started using my high-end system, but channels and trend lines are still important, because I think everything that shows relativity in trade is very important! ) Our buy levels was 4 and sum of ratios = 8.125 1. Sell block = 1 / 8.125 = %12.3 2. Sell block = 1.5/ 8.125 = %18.46 3. Sell block = 2.25 / 8.125 = %27.69 4. Sell block = 100 - (1.sell block + 2.sell block + 3. sell block ) = 41.55 Finally : Sell Points 1. Sell point = 1223.923 (3 consecutive purchases were shortened in one buy , If I had sold 3 times in a row, my wife would have been much higher because the rate would have increased in the hills, but the sample would have been too long.Although I use a very successful system, I divide it into 10 and I empty all of them in the definite negative trend.You may divide by 15 or 20 with distributional buy too or decrease dist ratio.Here you can not sell anywhere in the whole position can be seen when you see the negative signs, I do not prefer only as a stoploss I use this last safety.) 2. Sell point = 1243.57 3. Sell point = 1285.67 4. Sell point = 1310.93 Average sell point : (1223.923 * 12.3 + 1243.57 * 18.46 + 1285.67 * 27.69 + 1310.93 * 41.55 ) / 100 = 1280.798 RESULTS : Net profit = ((1280.798 - 1210.4) / 1210.4) * 100 = 5.816 As a result, our senior investor has already increased per unit 5.8 percent in a short time. In doing so, commercials provided liquidity to the markets and did not have the problem of not finding buyers. Stoploss here means emptying the whole position, for me 4 bars means stoploss in all directions. I will adjust the rates and use it in real ideas and real trade. Stay tuned! Noldo.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Noldo
7