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UPDATE: Week Commencing Feb 6 GBPJPY Outlook: Still long UPDATE: WC0206 GBPJPY Outlook: Still long until DTF LL is broken MTF Analysis Check annotations in the anchored notes for M-W-D-H4-H1 analysis. I've updated GJ's outlook for this week from the last one published in January -- specifically the Weekly Anchored Note Weekly Timeframe Outlook Sun,1/22/23 - Bearish downtrend UPDATE: Mon, 2/6/23 1. WC 30 Jan weekly candle ended up being a lower high. A 120 pip rejection wick from December's low. 2. There is a weekly and monthly imbalance that is coinciding with - December's 50% level (almost) - January's high - Previous week's high - This is supported by the 200 EMA (Daily TF) as it will be tapping it / be under it. Weekly BIAS: 1. Price is bullish until it reaches/ taps #2's confluence areas. 2. Once it taps #2 conf areas, it will melt until it reaches January's low (which is also coinciding with the last Daily TF lower low) -- price will tap this daily and monthly conf area and then it will rocket and resume the bullish trend that it has been having. ON THE FLIP SIDE. 1. The last low of the Daily TF. 155.39 X January low -- if price pierces that level and continues all the way down then it may just melt until the next monthly key level which is around 150.75 2. It may just continue the uptrend all the way at least to the M&W trendline FUNDAMENTAL HIGH IMPACT NEWS FOR GJ FEB AND MARCH Date Country & Event 2023, February 07, 08:01 (United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 2023, February 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU 2023, February 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance 2023, February 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) GDP MoM 2023, February 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Employment Change 2023, February 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Claimant Count Change 2023, February 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Unemployment Rate 2023, February 15, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY 2023, February 16, 07:50 (Japan) Balance of Trade 2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY 2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM 2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM 2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY 2023, February 21, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI 2023, February 21, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI 2023, February 24, 08:01 (United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence 2023, March 01, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI 2023, March 02, 13:00 (Japan) Consumer Confidence 2023, March 03, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI 2023, March 07, 08:01 (United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 2023, March 10, 11:00 (Japan) BoJ Interest Rate Decision 2023, March 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU 2023, March 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) GDP MoM 2023, March 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance 2023, March 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Unemployment Rate 2023, March 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Claimant Count Change 2023, March 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Employment Change 2023, March 16, 07:50 (Japan) Balance of Trade 2023, March 22, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY 2023, March 23, 20:00 (United Kingdom) BoE Interest Rate Decision 2023, March 24, 07:30 (Japan) Inflation Rate YoY 2023, March 24, 08:01 (United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence 2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM 2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY 2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM 2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY 2023, March 24, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI 2023, March 24, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI
Long
by RSC_FX
1
YOU : POSITION TRADEClear Secure: Talk About A Bullish Economic Moat • Clear Secure is capturing strong demand for its identity verification platform as a service to save time at security checkpoints. • Partnerships with airports, airlines and even the Transportation Security Administration highlight competitive advantages to drive growth. • An outlook for accelerating earnings can send the stock higher. • Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Conviction Dossier get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Clear Secure, Inc. (NYSE:YOU) offers a secure identity verification platform. If you've recently traveled through one of 46 major airports, you'll likely have seen the "Clear" checkpoints as a separate lane in the security process. Clear Pass focuses on the ID verification side of the airport screening process. The other step is the actual security area where travelers and carry-on luggage are checked for contraband. With the company's history going back more than a decade, the game changer now is a belief that the operation has finally reached a critical mass with enough locations where the service can make sense to a wide range of travelers. This concept is related to the network effect where the value of the service grows as its user base expands. Furthermore, the platform is being utilized in other applications where security screening is a requirement and there is room to capture efficiencies in the process. Members of Clear Plus also have the option to use the features at entertainment venues and stadiums where a security line often forms. Clear also offers a Health Pass which gained prominence during the pandemic with validation of COVID testing results and digitization of vaccine status that many types of business in certain areas embrace. Notably, this feature now integrates with Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) "Health App". YOU Key Metrics YOU released its Q3 earnings in mid-November with EPS of $0.05, which beat estimates by $0.05 as consensus was looking for a flat result. Revenue of $116 million climbed by 72% year-over-year, with the strength largely driven by the recovery of the airline industry compared to pandemic disruptions at the start of 2021. Management notes success with in-airport and various partner channels driving memberships captured in a climbing number of bookings along with retention of customers. On the financial side, keep in mind that there was a GAAP loss of -$65.6 million although this mostly reflected share-based compensation and the timing of the vesting from previously issued warrants. More favorably, the underlying shift towards profitability is evidenced by the adjusted EBITDA measure which reached $11.9 million compared to negative -$14.5 million in the period last year. The company also reported a positive free cash flow of $5.3 million. The expectation is that earnings will maintain this more positive momentum going forward. For Q4, management is guiding for revenue of around $124 million, implying a growth rate of 54% compared to Q4 2021, and up 7% on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Finally, we can mention Clear Secure maintains a solid balance sheet, ending the quarter with $700 million in cash and cash equivalents against effectively zero long-term financial debt. The position is strong enough that the Board of Directors declared a special $0.25 dividend which was paid in December. Are There Risks? The key for the company will be to maintain the pace of signups for new members while finding success in international markets. Longer-term, Clear Secure will need to become the global standard for secure identity verification not just in travel, but also leisure, and other industries with a visible presence in more and more countries as part of the bullish case. The other side to the discussion would be the risk that growth simply begins to disappoint while the expected earnings fail to materialize. One concern is that the company may have already captured the "low-hanging fruit" of hard-core heavy business travelers where the Clear Pass makes the most sense, at least from the U.S. market. By this measure, doubling the number of cumulative platform users from here will be more difficult. There is also an argument that if "everyone" is using Clear/TSA PreCheck, it begins to defeat the purpose of a priority security lane membership. It's not there yet but could become a problem at certain airports if the platform is too successful. Going further, a skeptic would also point to the regulatory risks where the service no longer becomes viable based on changing laws in the future or even in a scenario of a headline-making failure in the system that would undermine confidence in the company's security protocol. Read more on : seekingalpha.com Dan Victor, CFA, Seeking Alpha, Jan. 05, 2023 3:19 PM ET
NYSE:YOULong
by TradingMavericks
EURCAD I Position swing short from monthlyWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **EURCAD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
23
EURAUD Investment Plan - 4/Jan/2023Hello Traders, Hope you all are doing good!! I expect EURAUD to go Down. I am still looking for additional confirmation to be sure about this down move, however, one can obviously take the trade if their strategy allows. The objective of this idea is to share that the Long term SELL is probably gonna be coming next for this pair. Look for your SELL setups. Considering the fact that there are also traders looking for ideas wrt investment purpose, I will be posting my view on few assets for Long term trades. Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan. Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management. Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea
Short
by For3xScalper
High Risk, Long Term Carry Trade! TRYJPY!This is my high risk, long term carry trade for 2023 (opened in 2022, looking to add to my position further). The swap rate is very attractive - to provide some insight, I have received a 3% account increase since opening my first long position in 2022, through daily interest receivables. The Fundamentals... Turkey has potential. Exports are climbing. The country needs more stability and greater global confidence - Turkey is greatly lacking both. I believe that the currency is so heavily short, that any sign of monetary policy change could cause the Lira to rocket. Potentially creating some large volatile upside moves. With the possibility of a global recession, the Lira could also see buying momentum, as emerging markets often perform well during times of international recession. Current Technical Reasons... Price is nearing all-time lows and daily horizontal support. TRYJPY is also testing bearish channel support area. Don't get me wrong, the Lira could fall much further - it has been in extreme decline for around 15 years! This is considered a high risk trade.
Long
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
1
Xauusd ShortThe beautiful price structure of gold is being prepared for a very profitable short-selling position and I will enter the sell from the specified range. Stay with me to get more analysis after following me by sharing with friends and leaving a comment. According to my risk and capital management system, the risk of each trade is one percent per position. What do you think about this analysis and other analyses? What symbol would you like me to analyze for you?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Hamiratrading
6
DXY Investment Plan - 1/Jan/2023Hello Traders, Hope you all are doing good!! I expect DXY to go Down after finishing the current correction in LTF. Look for your SELL setups. Considering the fact that there are also traders looking for ideas wrt investment purpose, I will be posting my view on few assets for Long term trades. Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan. Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management. Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea
TVC:DXYShort
by For3xScalper
1
AUDCAD Investment Plan - 30/Dec/2022Hello Traders, Hope you all are doing good!! I expect AUDCAD to go Down after finishing the current correction in LTF. Look for your SELL setups. Considering the fact that there are also traders looking for ideas wrt investment purpose, I will be posting my view on few assets for Long term trades. Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan. Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management. Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea
Short
by For3xScalper
4
EURGBP Investment Plan - 21/Dec/2022Hello Traders, Hope you all are doing good!! I expect EURGBP to go Down after finishing the current wave. Look for your SELL setups around 0.88500 level. Considering the fact that there are also traders looking for ideas wrt investment purpose, I will be posting my view on few assets for Long term trades. Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan. Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management. Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea
Short
by For3xScalper
GBPUSD Resault: 600 pips✅Similar to the Eurodollar, the pound dollar will enter correction after hitting the ceiling of the descending channel and will move towards the ceiling of the channel after correction again. Stay with me to get more analysis after following me by sharing with friends and leaving a comment According to my risk and capital management system, the risk of each trade is one percent per position. What do you think about this analysis and other analyses? What symbol would you like me to analyze for you?
by Hamiratrading
1
AUDUSD: Will The Sinking Ship Provide Re-Entry ?WHAT A FANTASTIC SHORT POSITION THIS HAS BEEN FOR THE AUDUSD TRADERS WHO CAUGHT THE MOVE @ 0.72000 AFTER THE DEMAND ZONE/SUPPORT BREAK WAS CONFIRMED. NOW THE QUESTION COMES TO BEG: WOULD AUDUSD PROVIDE THE RE-ENTRY POINT FOR SOME OF US TO ENTER AGAIN AND SHORT IT? With the FED tightening so aggressively, AUDUSD is bound to sink and the ideal target seems to be 60 cents. Currently the price is not far away from the target, so therefore here we would like for the price to approach 66 cents mark so we can short it. Have a look at the main chart for full observation on this question. Note: trade is invalid shall the target hit first Trade Safely & Cautiously
Short
by FX618Analysis
CHF/CAD FOR POSITION TRADINGHello traders. This is the CHF/CAD monthly chart. I just want to show you a potential opportunity in which long-term traders can, perhaps, establish long-term short positions. As you can see in the chart, the pair has been on an upward trend since 2007 and we can draw an upward trend line connecting exactly three touches. But the price has broken the trend line and the price is in a short-term downward trend. But be careful, we still don’t have a confirmed downward trend on the monthly chart. To confirm the downward trend on the monthly chart, we need to wait for the price to make a minimum of two lower highs and two lower lows. The first sign would be if the price breaks the most recent low of 1.2600. In that case, we would get the first lower low and more confidence regarding the bear’s long-term outlook. Of course, after that we have to wait for another lower high and lower low for confirmation and if we get this we can establish a short position. But keep in mind that this would be position trading, and in that case your stop loss would be far away, so this may not be appropriate for scalpers and day traders. Also, the realization of this scenario could take months, but it is worth monitoring. And one more thing, just because the trend line is broken doesn’t mean you should sell right now; if the higher low at 1.26 isn’t broken, we’re still in a long-term uptrend on this pair, but in a retracement mode (or sideways consolidation). Trade safe, Merjem
Short
by merjemascerija
USDCHF: Consolidation Likely Before Trend ResumptionWith the year on year inflation in the US reaching 8.3%, the USD looks to ease of its rally slightly and most likely looking to correct to the downside after great gains in the previous numerous weeks. Shall this occur, that does not mean that the USD rally has ended, simply put the price is consolidating before resuming its upward trend. The fundamentals are still strongly in favor of the USD with inflation and FED rate hikes being the main propelling factor. Looking at the main chart, the price in the USDCHF broke the main resistance and now it looks like another upcoming resistance lies at the parity level. However looking at the risk to reward ratio which is not in our favor, we must patiently wait for the USD to retrace to achieve an equal 1:1 RR. The main support lies at around 0.91000 region which should act as a solid stop loss. Have a look at the main chart to observe the details clearly. Note that the setup would be invalidated shall the parity (1.0000) hit first before a retracement could take place. Shall the trade criteria meet (retrace to desired level) then i will make a new post with the trade instructions. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please Like & Follow for more Insights into major currency pairs and trading signals.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Dear Elon MuskDear @elonmusk : I have heard you are facing a huge tax bill. However, there is an instrument which can help you make money. It is NZD, New Zealand Dollars, as known as Sheep Coin and Kiwi Coin. I know you like to find profit from the trips of coins to the moon. I think nzd is a nice instrument, but it is facing offensive spam from hostile market makers. The news writters gave us two execuses. One is covid19, especially the emerging B.1.1.529 variant. I don't think so because New Zealand is one of countries encountering low impact from covid19. New Zealand is far away from Europe, Asia and America, so people are less willing to travel from and to New Zealand. The other is fear of Fed taper. I don't think so either because nzd is in the progress of increasing interest rate. Although Fed may consider speed up taper, they are still in the qe state. I only believe two reasons. One is New Zealand may spend a lot of money to buy oil. The other one is spam from market makers. It is because a lot of investors know to buy nzd, so market makers try to make us unprofitable. Conclusion Can you help us punishing those market makers and bring the justice back to the nzd investors? Best Regards clocks156t174 and other nzd investors
Long
by clocks156t174
SPROTT PHYSICAL URANIUM TRUSTPOSITION TRADE U.UN (TSE), SRUUF (OTC) Catalysts: The uranium market is in structural supply/demand deficit despite nuclear energy being an essential and growing form of clean energy. Financial players and a utility contracting cycle mark near-term catalysts. I expect both physical uranium and uranium producer baskets to aggressively outperform over the coming 1-3+ years. Financial players significantly escalated their role in the uranium market, in particular, the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (OTCPK:SRUUF). This trust exists to provide investors exposure to physical uranium, but in so doing, they take and sequester physical pounds from the market. Note that Yellow Cake plc (OTCPK:YLLXF) is a similar trust for UK based investors, although it is much less active in purchasing uranium. SOURCE : Uranium: Potential Trade Of The Decade, SEEKING ALPHA, Live Hard Investing, Feb. 10, 2022 seekingalpha.com
TSX:U.UNLong
by TradingMavericks
2