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EURGBP Investment Plan - 21/Dec/2022Hello Traders, Hope you all are doing good!! I expect EURGBP to go Down after finishing the current wave. Look for your SELL setups around 0.88500 level. Considering the fact that there are also traders looking for ideas wrt investment purpose, I will be posting my view on few assets for Long term trades. Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan. Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management. Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea
Short
by For3xScalper
GBPUSD Resault: 600 pips✅Similar to the Eurodollar, the pound dollar will enter correction after hitting the ceiling of the descending channel and will move towards the ceiling of the channel after correction again. Stay with me to get more analysis after following me by sharing with friends and leaving a comment According to my risk and capital management system, the risk of each trade is one percent per position. What do you think about this analysis and other analyses? What symbol would you like me to analyze for you?
by Hamiratrading
1
GBP JPY - Chaotic moves approachingG'day, Previous analysis attached below back in June 7th. Enjoy. Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral, however, as outline below - will be buying until the OL, offers a highly probable zones where a confirmed sell break and a confirmed sell from the Original level. Starting the supply and demand imbalance. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bearish move (positional trade). Also note, sentiment changes as does entry points, stop losses and profit taking points. This chart is not dynamic once submitted so keep this in mind. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Three, Four Day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Weekly JPY Weekly has a great reversion pivot point at 15-154. Price has produced a strong engulfing pattern leaving the demand zone and heading towards the new double top, but producing a higher high on the weekly and daily respectively. To note, price is still bullish, however the newly established fresh supplies have offered selling opportunities and also buying opportunities as these consolidative areas are creating huge swing ranges. Very tough conditions to trade especially where for a session you are up say 300pips, then overnight a rejected wick has formed cancelling out the move. Daily Price has created a fresh Daily supply within the weekly - all though unable to view this formation admittedly, the small Daily anchored move has been added. A fresh daily supply has been created within the orange box while previously considered a range top - this is a situation where price return with a probability of the lower high wick formed. However to note, where price continues to break the TL - bearish CP (continuation pattern) will form. From here opportunities will highly probable to take price down towards the destination. Monthly JPY for GBP has a long move ahead, however other pairs as outlined in previous analysis in respect of JPY Pairs, have outlined monthly zones are within arrival for these pairs. (review links below to track). JPY Pairs NZD JPY - Monthly We are awaiting the OL Fresh level supply. EUR JPY Similar setup as above. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
by LupaCapital
4
AUDUSD: Will The Sinking Ship Provide Re-Entry ?WHAT A FANTASTIC SHORT POSITION THIS HAS BEEN FOR THE AUDUSD TRADERS WHO CAUGHT THE MOVE @ 0.72000 AFTER THE DEMAND ZONE/SUPPORT BREAK WAS CONFIRMED. NOW THE QUESTION COMES TO BEG: WOULD AUDUSD PROVIDE THE RE-ENTRY POINT FOR SOME OF US TO ENTER AGAIN AND SHORT IT? With the FED tightening so aggressively, AUDUSD is bound to sink and the ideal target seems to be 60 cents. Currently the price is not far away from the target, so therefore here we would like for the price to approach 66 cents mark so we can short it. Have a look at the main chart for full observation on this question. Note: trade is invalid shall the target hit first Trade Safely & Cautiously
Short
by FX618Analysis
LINK USD - Are you in?G'day, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral, until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bearish move. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Rose = Four Day, 3Day Orange = Daily Monthly Price action on the monthly has fallen back down to the previous al time high double top As indicated by the zone which aligns with the FEB/March 2020 wick highs. Bi-Monthly Low curve, shows that price will now begin to break this bi-monthly TL (review bi-monthly chart above) once a lower timeframe offers the departure confirmation on a daily break and retest. The zone chosen here on the half departure of the engulfing candle is used with the strong magnet as this indicates a higher probability chance of pricing interacting with this zone. Weekly The weekly zone has now been tested and has held with buyers guarding $5.00 level. The overall monthly level shows a strong imbalance, yet to be tested so price can breach towards the monthly before creating a reactive wick. To look for a change in structure, the current consolidative range found on the weekly, four day and daily is now offering a build up for long opportunities. The daily has provided a Fresh zone where longs can be taken. The curve is now needing a clean 2x departure following the rules of a reactive wick, spinning top or doji candle. This will be confirmed by a daily close. Fresh Weekly zone Four day Range It's clear the range of this structure is in a strong build up zone for creating a long opportunity and with a confirmation, further sell down towards <$4. The probability of how price consolidation and price action is forming here has created great fresh zones. the curve is yet to be broken, so as price heads towards a symmetrical triangle pattern, this will enable us with a pattern to form. Keep in mind alternative patterns such as flags and price skewing towards the high curve instead of the low curve. Daily Fresh zone as highlighted in Orange, sitting above the white OL zone. Expecting price to now establish a higher low in the chart formation based on structure. Buying upon a reactive tap or a deep corrective move, forming the strategy rules in looking for a confirm of departure. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
COINBASE:LINKUSD
by LupaCapital
2
US OIL - short term updateG'day, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral, until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bearish move. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Monthly Reactive tap of the OL supply since 2008. 2008 showed a steep curve sell off between 2008-09, however price had a tow year weak curve to battle back weekly and monthly zones to create a lower high upon the monthly. The final zone correlates to a bi-monthly zone ** Since the reactive tap of the OL, the monthly closes have still indicated a higher close on the months following. Where does this leave price now on the monthly? The reactive sell will ensure that supply imbalance has taken over. What this means using confirmation rules, price will look to retest and fail to penetrate the zone with a strong corrective final structural move which nets within the zone. Where a monthly failure of the OL exists, then a sell in high probable to create a low curve. ** reference to 2008 analysis of steep high curve Weekly Price peaked at the OL and as the supply or arrival zone is tapped, price has probability with confirm rules of CP and candle patterns to spot to take a measured sell. The PCP level is now obtainable where the high curve can, with failure to create higher highs within the structure and reactive sells upon the daily, will indicate an opportunity to sell. Since the FL is untested, orders from the supply provide a control for the swing term length of a trade. Upon the sell closure the Curve suggests at present the high probability of an arrival between $92-96.5 where a long opportunity favours buyers as the FL here still has >70% probability as the arrival has yet to be penetrated. Daily The rising channel has offered buying opportunities and created the necessary confirmations needed to create the structure required on a curve correction to retest the high. PCP level is now identifiable placed at $112-117 zone, showing the supply engulfing, corrective and retest confirm structure can play out. The overall destination is towards the range bottom of the curve, creating a low curve, offering the hedge sell for long buys. Trade opportunities Bearish move is upon a rejection of the PCP formation Bullish move from a break of trend and retest - creating the long opportunity for a measured buy towards the OL. USD CAD for a commodity pair outlook Weekly Buying opportunities are highly probable towards 1.26 as the lower high formation needs to be completed subject to a sell off for the pair as the weekly zone shows a OL deep correction is now in play. The reversion zone shows between 1.24-1.25 as a destination. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
TVC:USOIL
by LupaCapital
BTC - Outlooks for the futureOriginal idea - as of March 20th This has been a side project in the making for me, so please enjoy the read and any constructive feedback, collaboration ideas. Contents Breakdown: I. Risk Warning before reading II. Key criteria for chart reading & acronyms. III. Weekly Imbalance & Continuation Pattern IV. Example backtest to live. V. Volatility & Volume Metrics V.I Volatility since inception V.II Short term volatility (30 days) V.III Price vs Volume V.IV Price vs volume (30 days) VI. Where BTC is now/ Bear Case 1 V.I. Bear case 2 V.II Bear Market Relief Rally V.III. Bitcoin Dominance vs BTC V.IV. Heikin Ashi candles VII. Bullish Cases VI.I Bullish Case 2 VI.II. Bitcoin Vs Ethereum VI.III. BTC Halvings VIII. XAU vs BTC, chart research IX. Reference Data in plain text X. Misc Data XI. Chart updates Important notes. - It is recommended to click into the pictures to review the model figures and or view the technical setups in clearer details, depending on what format of choice is being used (mobile, laptop, pc screen). Regression script, thank you for uploading the original script on pine editor memotyka9009 . Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. II. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Technical Setup backtest: Key: CP - Continuation pattern DBD - Drop Base Drop OP - Original price DCA - Dollar Cost Average FL - Fresh Levels III Weekly Chart using Imbalances and Continuation Pattern levels (Now CP from here on). Where Buying upon a CP level is clear is based upon two factors; 1. Time 2. Understanding the levels from a departure level be it buying/selling imbalance. The departure level is hardest part to predict, so ideally it's best not to - which why zones are drawn especially where all time highs or new tops exist. However, with reference to the chart below - Drop Base Drop or DBD from now on. to a CP level is clear on the timeframe below. *To those who refer to Supply and demand, this is the same thing. So why is the CP level this zone? where The overall scale shows a further drop scenario on the horizon? Well, this is down to the removal of multiple factors within a traders, investors control. 1. Scarcity of the coin in circulation 2. CP level has not removed the demand imbalance, there the price cycle has high probability of continuing back to the Original price (OP from now on). 3. Departure scenarios occur like fractals where patterns repeat upon smaller timeframes, and do not always necessarily meet the expectation of price flow until a later date. . Down and left, shows the trend is your friend and sellers have captured the price imbalance between buyers, sellers and the flow will look the the next departure zone at the CP or a fresh level. IV. Example of Departure level and why the CP level still stands. Back testing the new all time high, shows a Rally Base Rally - in the formation of 119days or 17 weeks to create. From here, confirmations need to be understood before entering aggressively or with a confirmed mindset where price has offered a pathway of creating lower lows and a fresh level. Marking of the zone using the weekly low and all time high - in conjunction with looking left at the previous top. Can we now establish an imbalance? Where price closes below the imbalance zone but does not offer a lower consecutive daily low. await price - before adding a sell position. If Price creates a rest of the candle wick high, await closure of consecutive two day candles before assessing the entry point. Does price break the low and create an engulfing which breaks the parallel channel and imbalance patterns? Add sell, triple confirms are assessed and probability is >95% confidence price is with the departure imbalance. Here is a clear setup scenario which confirms a clear proximal sell from the departure level. Using the daily infinity line which indicates the sentiment hypothesis: 'should price break said infinite ray, price becomes invalidated' Subject to departure creating lower lows, this has been confirmed. The weekly Departure line (purple) clearly shows the areas of profit taking or if a sideline investor, using Dollar Cost Average, (here on DCA) buying positional points for long term investing upon close out of sellers positions. Here is the Daily chart setup Itemized labels are clear. Follow the steps breakdown to plot points with on trade setups. As noted, price can retest the imbalance >50% probability upon establishing a smaller time frame base using price action. So aggressive sellers, subject to Infinite ray breakout, sell upon rejection at around $59,000 marked in the Green line. Figure 1. Figure 2. Confirmation of the aggressive sell and confirmed sell from departure. The profit targets are clearly set to minimize price reversion and a possible CP to the up and right. However, from this point, clever traders will close out and await confirmation upon a 'Bull trap' at the consolidate Base within the DBD to the arrival zone at the buying imbalance, essentially adding a smaller position to confirm extra downward right CP. Here is the Bull trap marked upon the inside candle which suggests the liquidity wicked the end of the sellers, instead it has formed the 'Base' part of the overall picture within the DBD. Figure 3.1 - Bull Trap Base This is now perfect for smaller term price action traders to consolidate and form the Base positional, DCA investors want. However, the overall pattern still is in a positional move for probability of sellers as the arrival target has not completed yet. Do not over look the 119 days previous cycle. History fractals repeat, all be it not like for like, but this is where patience is clear from a technical stand point. The Base demand daily imbalance needs to be removed for a CP move to occur. Figure 3.2 Base - awaiting Drop. Price is 42 days into the next Departure selling imbalance, and has encountered price target zone one. Which using the weekly channel and Imbalances price has still not finished the selling cycle yet as the arrival zone still is fresh and needs retesting. This paradox position of which "Fresh imbalance" is in reference to is favourable to the selling imbalance as "what goes up, must come down", not only this - from a technical departure level and how imbalances work as a concept, is clear distinct levels encounter higher probability of retesting in terms of a buying imbalance. In this case $30,000 psychological level is the level of price movement within a DBD. Figure 3.3 The End result After 77 days and -52.6% from all time high to present price, Bitcoin has halved... in price. V Volatility There are exceptions to any price volatility ofcourse, noted on the chart which 'breach the regression curve. (these are not drawn to best fit as outliers are needed and will exceed the parameters). To note, as with volatility upon price movements both positive and negative will present high volatility upon a low price with sharp movements as an example from inception below shows the volatile state of 'aggressive moves' which jump from an example a close of $0.80, with the following close of $0.5, this is a -37.5% decrease and will present a highly volatile swing. Subsequent to this an open of $0.5 to a growth of $0.6 the next days close presents a swing of +20%. While these percentage moves are large, the representation of the figures which are lower will trick the psychology of investor/traders upon short term periods. Let's look at the data closer. Review the chart below to see the high volatility within the First 30 days of Trading and what the swings look like in terms of investing percentages gain/losses per day. Daily Volatility (Inception) Now refer to the overall picture as BTC has become more established since 2010 (July,17th) -2022 (May at present) The volatility has still produced whipsaw events which have impacted investors and traders a like. An example of this high volatility can show one of the outlier events which took place back on 12th March 2020 at the closing price of $7,987.15 and the closing capture on 13th March 2020 showed a price of $5,767.05 a -27.8% decrease within a trading day. While the regression band does capture the reversion points for a highly reactive zone, one more than one occasion exceptional losses and growth spikes have occurred to benefit each holders. The same is clear with FX and Indices and stocks. These occasions the volume of participants is clear and the move has been winding up for a time period (interchangeable per trader). (Current 30 day Volatility) Using the data captured from the 20th April 2022 - 20th May 2022, shows the last month of volatility where price has continued the PCP bearish move after a consolidative phase on the daily chart. The largest swings occurring upon the drop from the 4th May 2022 onwards which are represented on the chart above the volatility graph. Whilst the swings are concerning in the short term price movement, this does create large opportunities from both sellers and buyers equally generating the price action necessary to keep the market moving. Volume Vs Price (Last 30 days) What are the takeaways from this chart? The Volume spikes are visualized below where the the heavy volumes reacted around the points which have been drawn around the previous $30k psychology level and also indicate the structural lows in the past.** (View chart below) Date High Low Mid Volume 12/05/2022 30,270.00 26,591.00 28,746.00 34,209.37752 11/05/2022 32,227.00 27,900.00 28,639.50 28,543.23109 10/05/2022 32,687.00 29,833.00 30,568.50 14,880.86320 09/05/2022 34,316.00 30,439.00 31,360.50 20,202.58385 Notice the large volume interest upon the buyers/sellers reacting to the zone where a fair price has now been created at $26,591 low. This still has not created the true reflective fair value zone, however the lower low put into the market can now engage a buying opportunity for those who are inclined to take advantage of the volatile scenarios. **To see this zone clearer, view below Volume Vs Price (200 days) Overall using a 200 day picture volume has picked up at psychological levels ending 000 or 500 as expected. The volume spikes at critical levels where imbalances are placed on the chart below where price aligns with a heavier interest and combines with imbalances upon the daily and weekly levels. On top of this - the additions of price creating consolidative phases allows a volume to build up as orders pile up both for buyers and sellers. High volume plot points all point to clear candles of interest on the chart. Below captures the 10 highest positions which can be plotted and see the high volatile volume pushes/pulls before the next departure occurs from trading ranges and daily imbalances alike. VI. Where is the price of BTC now? Bear Market Cases Bear Case 1 Bear Case 2 Bear Market Relief Rally BTC Dominance Heikin Ashi candles Looking to the Monthly in a Bear Case scenario; Note; the way Fresh levels work within the principles of Imbalances can create the next part of the cycle, while in a bear case - short term losses will hurt the psychology of the market participant, the overall concept here is to fully understand how price looks to previous arrival and departure levels of CP and Fresh Levels (here on FL). Price can Imbalance net close, whereby price will look to the structure of the overall BTC price chart from inception and offer a closing out, from sellers to buyer - this is a net imbalance on the chart, where buyers will assume control of the discounted price and begin to change the selling environment to a buying opportunity for both short term and long term investors. The reason for a bear case; With the back test proof example as above, price reversion whilst not entirely predictable - assessing risk measured moves are however subject to confirmation; so; 1. Using the $35,000 to $26,000 zone as an imbalance - subject to price using this as a tested and validated previous demand Imbalance, say this scenario of held base breaks, this has become a DBD scenario. With allow price to remove the current demand imbalance, The next imbalance is around $17,800 - $15,000 which is a critical position within the chart structure and can establish a change within market participants, this is called a shake out. The psychological factor here, will posses a lot of holders with losses, where new participants and existing will be able to add to existing positions at the discounted part of the cycle. Now looking at the main position of the Bitcoin from initiation to present, the future log chart formats a price option can price here reach the pivotal level and re-activate the next bullish run? . Please read: Important notice Dominance percentage will not coincide with price reflection nor the supply percentage mined also provide a clear aligned price figure to the exact Dominance/price/crypto market cap outcome. These variables are subject to interpretation of change, but can provide indicative scenarios. Note II, where increase of Bitcoin Dominance will always mean price correlates positively, the market factors further to this will need to be quantified in a deeper model with a multi variable scenario analysis. Review the implied price relating to more of the crypto market size as a whole before drawing a conclusion. The simplistic formula is here to indicate a potential price using imbalances upon supply and demand and what price can reflect where new fresh extended levels will take BTC. Top of the markets to the bottom of the bearish moves Here are the marked zones which correlate to the tops and bottoms using the 2week chart, allowing the supply and demand departure and arrival destinations in play. At current, 20/05/2022 - the market has encountered a low of $25,790* est. from $68,990 highs (-62.72%) drop thus far. Let's look at some scenarios where if price settles within the arrival zone at the imbalance completion marked between $16,300 - $20,400 - price will be within the range of the previous bear market alignments with a drop between (76.03%) drop reaching the distal zone at $16,300. With highs of (70.79%) drop incurred. So far the average bear market from high to low averages at (75.37833%) using the marked zones. High Low Loss % from high to low. 23/05/2011 24/10/2011 -93.56 25/11/2013 05/01/2015 -85.94 04/12/2017 19/11/2018 -84.76 24/06/2019 02/03/2020 -71.09 12/04/2021 21/06/2021 -56.36 08/11/2021 09/05/2022 -60.56* * = current low in the bear market. Bear Model case (1) This implied model shows what happens in a scenario within the bear market where the Market Cap suffers a loss to 0.55x multiple where the market cap is applied at 2.245T. With the dominance being an important factor - review the chart below to address the cycle of Dominance vs BTC value in previous bear markets, notice the negative correlation (and probable causation upon the removal of liquidity from the market with a strong change of hands occurring). The alignment of dominance retreats to a Gold standard with alt coins having higher swings of volatility as opposed to the violent swings of BTC. (note, BTC will incur large -5% moves, as does Gold). VI.I Bear Model Case 2 What to know about the Strong bear market (bleeding market) As the variables change, let's look at a Bleeding market where the following occurs; Crypto market falls to $816.6B which equates to 7% of the Gold market as of data inception date. Dominance tends to increase when the bear markets occur, where other Crypto assets default, the overall winner is the dominant force (or value store) is Gold and demand increases, however price can still continue to decrease as money is removed from the market. Taking an implied value at face value, price alignments are the key target here which support the strategy of imbalance/supply and demand zones. The overall market value is not important as this value driver is built up on numerous variables. VI.II Bear Market Relief Rally Here is a probable scenario in which after a losing streak in the market, the market will show a sign of life, with new inflows taken upon an opportunity buy in upon a discount (either in a DCA investment or large volume of Puts to boost sentiment). Why 40k? This is the current scenario where previous back testing, structure seem to point to (not 40k) but for pattern & market structure purposes whereby, price creates a DBR scenario for short term trading opportunities to fuel the final wave of the bearish structure. (Review below label 'Backtest relief rally') Backtest relief rally This was looking back to 2018 where June 11th - July 30th saw a summer relief rally occur after arriving back to the original level. The white circles indicate the reactive points creating the first reactive test of the zone, which is an important aspect as the fresh level will generate the demand to continue (all be it shorter term moves). From the targets from said demand, price can either oscilate back upto the original supply (departure) or look at the structure in place and revert to two probable levels (creating a lower high). The second test is a deeper consolidative phase, still providing a demand reaction however less likely to produce a return which is equal/higher than the previous lower high. The steep curve (looking at the bullish structure previous indicates the highly probable OL is sat underneath the current level). The Final reactive white circle becomes the 'Break and retest' of the trendline. Now in this scenario price broke through to deeply test the demand structure. Creating a final move which "sprung" out of the arrival zone, but created a bull trap scenario. The final move (or wave) is now in action from the reactive retest. The lower demand aligns to the monthly wick (left, September 2017). While the above backtest shows the scenario, market cycles do repeat (although not in exact patterns as every piece of market data is unique), however looking at the probability and how the market is currently aligned (using the above (Bear market relief rally), the chart is point to signs of a similar outcome. VI.III Bitcoin Dominance vs BTC Inversion pattern where Alt coins are hardest hit, and order flows move to BTC and cash surplus is removed from the market. Where the all time high (arrival destination for BTC) the Dominance is at a low, why? This is due to the entire market share increasing and prices of alternate assets which will grow at different rates where the ROA is higher than BTC as diminishing returns exist. Dominance Solely; (weekly) The curve steepness from the supply imbalance shows an original level and fresh level respectfully. the 60% fresh level will indicate a strong opportunity for a targeted destination in a bear market scenario where the market value of BTC will hit a respected price, equating to a 60% Dominance on the market cap. Using the weekly structure, the Demand (arrival) is weak and needs to create a new destination towards the supply. Price has broke out of the weekly zone with an impulse, from here, now expecting price to oscillate within the trading range at current (39.18-47.6%). Once the confirmation of the trading range is broken, the clear movement towards the Fresh level is now available. This will subsequently mean the price of BTC will suffer. VI.IV Heikin Ashi (Monthly) What is the chart showing? Previous structure has shown a bear market of 14 red candles each within the two major previous corrections. At present 6/14 (using the anchor as a probable scenario), shows that the market still has more room to fall before the imbalance is touched within the fresh zone. The bear market may have a consolidatory phase where price begins to drift slowly but over a 14 candle period. Review the Heikin Ashi weekly with the regression bands in place to indicate a probable zone of price reaction Why is the white zone an area of importance? The fair market value (white line) and upper band zone (green upper) both create a curve of prediction as to where price can react upon an original level. Looking left on the structure, where the white zone is situated, this aligns with the previous structure highs, where price can have a reactive measure to. With this being a 'Fresh arrival' the structure can use this price zone as a imbalance position use as a base and build upon a long imbalance from here. (This in theory does not always correlate in Crypto, but has a higher probability within FX pairs). VII Bullish Case Bull Market Cases Bull Case 1 Bull Case 2 Bitcoin Vs Ethereum BTC Halvings Looking into the bullish case, the weekly levels, will need to hold at key pivot levels, however, looking at previous tests - from all time highs, to the lows, the bear market moves from the tops have been captured below. From the regression zones - this can offer a large bullish case from the change of hands from bearish moves to a bullish move. Using the Bullish case - the current state of play price looks to the key demand imbalance at $19,690 to $15,000 as the market cycle completes its pathway from Departure level (supply) and arrives at the (demand) zone. There are interesting gaps along the way where 'Psychological' consolidative zones will react, creating a lower high formation. This can be a fresh level for a trading range or potential zone which can fall to a monthly zone (which can break upon multiple retests), shows a strong probability for a DBD scenario. Price can in the short term of course remain in a trading range and essentially move sideways, to the DCA investor and position holder - looking forward to bigger picture, the main area of interest is within the range of $33,800 - 28,800, as price once rebounding from this zone, shows the Fresh level which has no tests as yet, meaning price will look to the Supply trading range of said zone. Bull Case 1 Dominance retreats back to level of 40-45% Crypto market inflows accelerate Demand zone is freshly tested, now the bullish RBR cycle can commence. First the Conservative case applied below; The Key takeaway is that the chart below can plot the next bullish cycle which can over extend to a new fresh level and in turn become the next fresh supply. What this chart shows, is a clear DBD scenario, where now an original level will be clear for a 'change of hands', creating the opportunity for the next bullish cycle to initiate. Trading/investing upon confirmations will be key here to the overall success to the individual participant. Looking at how BTC has worked in the past with impulse, correction impulse moves or (RBR), this can form the next scenario outcome. Using the distal line based at $15,000 as an example will allow room for positions to be added where a reactive bottom occurs. Upon a reactive bottom, buyers will need to confirm daily closes and also zones to the left where price has yet to test (as a deep corrective). An engulfing candle from a bottom or a long wick (weekly confirm) will signify a short term move for buyers, but note - wicks can be retested within the arrival zone to clear out early buyers for the full profit takers of sellers. The model assumes an implied mined % of BTC against the market capitalization of the Crypto market where(these are interchangeable variables). For the purpose of the model screenshot supplied, shows interval levels with differing dominance percentages expressed, furthermore the implied price will look towards the implied market cap of the Crypto market as a whole. With reference to BTC to XAU market cap shows the highlighted variable outcomes which over extend subject to alignment of the growth of the Crypto market and onboarding of further inflows of clients. A bullish target using the past data implies that a $50,000 mark is qualifiable as a target for a lower boundary. This is based off the fact that Dominance of BTC will need to decrease and inflows in the market from all participants to be entering again within the market space. VII.II Bullish Case 2 Dominance retreats back to level of 40-45% Crypto market inflows accelerate to half of the Gold market total value est. 6.124T Demand zone is freshly tested, now the bullish RBR cycle can commence. What does this model show and how can the chart interpret some of the outputs? The end goal is ofcourse the price which is the clear result, however notice the bottom section which can relate closer to how BTC price can react whereby; 1. Inflows are attracted and volume increases steadily into BTC as opposed to other cryptocurrencies as the desired asset of choice. Dominance does not always have to be >40% of the market, instead can use the scarcity value of remaining circulation to be mined and the circulating supply which is not controlled by Saitoshi & considered 'lost, irretrievable'. This will provide a closer proximity to the real availability of BTC. Preface to the chart and not the implied values. The next cycle can demonstrate where with further additions to consumers and the return of inflows as a growing demand increase. These fuel the change and create the price action required. (revert back to the previous peaks of the market and review the volume). Backtest of Dominance Vs Price inversion Looking at another example with the model applied, notice below with a potential priced in method whereby BTC holds a 43-44% Dominance of the entire market at $3.062T price of BTC will reach the desired all time high value. (subject to conditions set, where investment is heavily invested in BTC over other assets. To understand the implied price return. The implied price based on the (implied market cap/supply)*1000 which gives the future price based off the Dominance percentage. The implied price CAGR over the five and ten year period are calculated to indicate the return value upon the implied new price set in line with the new Crypto market cap. When calculated back the returns, most investors look purely at the return calculation fundamentally removing all aspects of transaction fees upon purchase sells, exchange fees based on percentage of Fiat conversion to BTC and fee's upon moving from wallet to wallet transfers. This formula below purely looks at the investment price as dated to the future price value. =Implied/price close^(1/5years)-1 gives the Annual return for 5 Years. *change the 5 years to any shortened/longer period to work out the return over a given period. VII.III Bitcoin Vs Ethereum This chart represents the value of ETH against BTC, showing the valuation chart of where the pinpoint lows and highs correspond to the individual assets price in comparison. The weekly chart is showing two probable scenarios here based off the arrival and departure and arrival zones. Price can look to come back to 0.4 zone as the curve using the market structure (looking left ) a clear impulse and correctional play has been created. Now using the previous cycles, a fair value is needed as a correction (bear phase) where BTC & ETH will correct back to the trendline (review curve to see where price will look to). This is a potential pathway. Always adjust and never forget the 0.2 zone for ETH BTC trend can fall back to the original level, this impact would be Now review the reversion zones where BTC, ETH stagnates in a bear market before the next bull run. VII.IV BTC Halvings 1) Bitcoin Halvings The best way to interpret Bitcoin's price action is via the logarithmic chart which shows the overall square root function of each cycle. Simply put, realistically, the log chart is slowing down on the longer timescale, meaning that Bitcoin is now currently in its fourth phase as shown in the chart - price maturity and store of value. Halvings; are where new bitcoins are issued by the Bitcoin network every 10 minutes. The amount of Bitcoins issued were 50 every 10minutes, however every four years, this number is halved, hence "halving". A definition is explained here; "The Bitcoin mining algorithm is programmed to look for new blocks every ten minutes. The time it takes to find blocks will decrease as more miners join the network and add more hashing power. To restore a 10-minute objective, the mining difficulty is reset once every two weeks or so. The average time to locate a block has constantly remained below 10 minutes (roughly 9.5 minutes) as the Bitcoin network has grown dramatically over the last decade." Source: cointelegraph.com The significance of halving decreases the amount of new bitcoins generated per block, meaning the supply of new bitcoins is lower, making buying more expensive. In normal markets, lower supply with steady demand usually leads to higher prices, this comes with a utility which we will look at a store of value and a consider the ongoing use case of BTC as a best practice of who can create for the general public offerings to provide best customer experiences with offerings using the network effect with parties added where merchants are added on a platform, this scalability of being able to move BTC around as a payment system with the ever decreasing availability of BTC able to be mined and % in circulation remaining, using supply/demand, price along with maintaining price stability and a store of value, will continue to drive the price up. At present national currencies exist like the USD, EUR, GBP & AUD, taking the US in to focus for example; U.S. Federal Reserve, has at its disposal multiple tools that enable it to add or remove dollars from circulation. If the economy is floundering, for instance, the Fed can increase circulation and encourage lending by purchasing securities from banks (look back to COVID 19, 2008 market crash and Millennium crash). Alternately, if the Fed wants to remove dollars from the economy, it can sell securities as part of removing dollars from the system. These currencies are infinite, especially with printing of new Fiat. However, BTC and other Cryptos and XAU in this case present a fixed or limited resource (XAU). Having a predetermined number it’s this scarcity alongside their utility that largely influences their market value as a store of value. Bitcoin has at current had Three halving's so far; review below the growth one year on from the day BTC halves November 28th 2012 July 9th 2016 November 5th 2020 For the instance of the First halving, BTC per block Before = 50BTC per block After = 25 BTC Per block Using (Final value - Starting Value)/Starting value * 100 = % increase Price on halving day 1 = $12.35 as at November 28th 2012 365 Days after period = $1037.75 November 28th 2013 Growth = 8303% R.D up 8302.83% Second halving Price on halving day 2 = $650.63 July 9th 2016 365 Days after period = $2541.85 July 9th 2017 Growth = 291% Third Halving Price on halving day 3 = $8765.8 May 11th 2020 365 Days after period = $55,952.5 May 11th 2021 Growth = 538% Fourth Price on halving day = $ Feb-June 2024 V.III XAU vs BTC, chart research As stated above, the cause of these growth cycles are the Bitcoin Halvings, which leads to a supply shock and a subsequent rally. As history has shown that with a lower supply (scarcity) the demand for the coins go higher, meaning that the fundamental value of Bitcoin may go down, and now becomes more of a 'Store of Value' asset, just like gold. Refer to the below chart of XAU/BTC price chart. Weekly Chart XAU/BTC Notes taken from the chart: The argument here can be presented as price for BTC is showing clear chart pattern almost mirroring XAU. Note: XAU is finite but the supply is unknown, however BTC is 21MLN coins and known. This uptick in Gold taking off in the 68 and retesting the lows in 1970. This departure imbalance shows clearly on the BTC chart between 2017-2019 showing a similar case. Whilst not causative, there is an element hear of the adoption phase before looking at Gold, price began to depart and create a RBR formation to generate a new all time high. To note further, price once created the new ALT-high position, it is now time to sit on the side and await the next move, the reason being - daily charts offer shakeouts between these fresh levels and it's a risk-calculated measure to remove positions from the market or at least dwindle down to a minimum subject to trailing stop losses. The move will now form an imbalance in favour of a supply imbalance and a distal zone for viewing a sell opted trade. Although this chart is just an observation and educated guess using technical approaches with supply and demand imbalances, still assume that this chart is realistic and a probable scenario as it is calculated with a balance of market psychology, technical, and overall market cycle theories explained. Even the monthly chart can be seen as a minuscule timeframe and we have to take this day by day, timeframe by timeframe. We can most definitely see lower prices and from a longer perspective, anything below 100,000 USD is still considered a great buy for Bitcoin , as many will start to understand that Bitcoin is becoming an investment. If we also apply Murphy's law, we will also have to assume that all good things will come to an eventual end for a cycle. XAU vs BTC further, looking back Gold 70's analysis using departure and arrival supply and demand imbalances. Here is the weekly chart in the 70's between Nov 1973 - September 1976 which shows the steep trend of RBR (on the Red line) The reason why the "Xs" are marked on the chart is purely to show where areas on the RBR structure to the formed supply imbalance created a good reference pathway (not always 100% mirrored) but for a DBD to the original level, these are positions to take profit or look to await further positions for adding to keep exposed in the sell. From here price created an imbalance where price had exhausted, price is now presenting a departure for sellers using a proximal sell and a distal (top) stop loss. Price reverts to the original departure zone as the strong impulse correction, impulse now needs to retest the original level Retest of the Original level (monthly) Total Crypto Market cap vs GOLD Market CAP. Unfortunately Tradingview doesn't offer a GOLD CAP vs Crypto. Refer to an al source. IX Reference data in plain text so here is a BTC vs XAU Chart and relative values thanks to Woobull.com charts.woobull.com Simplified BTC price to market cap ratio of XAU Prices = April 1, 2022 However a simple price target using the value of Gold price value as at $12.249T BTC price as at close $46,630 April BTC market value 8.87307E+11 or (887BN) =12.249/88.7 = 13.81x multiple Apply this to the price of BTC where close $46,630 x 13.81x = $643,960.30 subject a 1:1 ratio of BTC Market cap = XAU BTC Modelling can be manipulated to reach whatever price you like. See the example below; The interchangeable criteria relates back to the Dominance of the Crypto market dominance of Bitcoin using cases of where BTC had previously held highs of 70% Dominance. For the purpose of the model implied below; using 70% as the Optimal where the large majority of investment activity by passes the other ALT coins and stable coins or better yet the top 10 coins. 70% of all investment into the market as a whole will increase the dominance of BTC in conjunction with the Implied price subject to the current scarcity of BTC in circulation with an additional 900mined per day. Implying the 70% market cap of the new Crypto market space at a current price of $3.062T using the 19.003M coins in circulation an implied price subject to investment into BTC > all over projects, the price will produce a $112,799.40 per BTC held. Upcoming analysis for BTC to consider. Adding complexity layers; where removal of "Lost BTC" from the current BTC in live circulation as at the date provided 02/04/2022 using the case of 3million coins are lost or (15.79%) of the circulating supply currently available or 14.29% of the total 21M coins. Satoshi also holds 900,000* from sources which is 4.736% of the current circulating supply, or a 4.29% of the total 21M supply. This will be looked into in a future analysis. X Misc data Sources of pricing, API added to excel with macro to refresh data (daily). cryptosheets for second verification of price open, mid, volume, close confirms as cross reference. Under/over valued price prediction model tool built in excel with function builder to map implied price returns using simplified modelled scenarios. XI Chart updates - to show confirms of DCA or buy sell orders with CP confirms
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LupaCapital
3
CHF/CAD FOR POSITION TRADINGHello traders. This is the CHF/CAD monthly chart. I just want to show you a potential opportunity in which long-term traders can, perhaps, establish long-term short positions. As you can see in the chart, the pair has been on an upward trend since 2007 and we can draw an upward trend line connecting exactly three touches. But the price has broken the trend line and the price is in a short-term downward trend. But be careful, we still don’t have a confirmed downward trend on the monthly chart. To confirm the downward trend on the monthly chart, we need to wait for the price to make a minimum of two lower highs and two lower lows. The first sign would be if the price breaks the most recent low of 1.2600. In that case, we would get the first lower low and more confidence regarding the bear’s long-term outlook. Of course, after that we have to wait for another lower high and lower low for confirmation and if we get this we can establish a short position. But keep in mind that this would be position trading, and in that case your stop loss would be far away, so this may not be appropriate for scalpers and day traders. Also, the realization of this scenario could take months, but it is worth monitoring. And one more thing, just because the trend line is broken doesn’t mean you should sell right now; if the higher low at 1.26 isn’t broken, we’re still in a long-term uptrend on this pair, but in a retracement mode (or sideways consolidation). Trade safe, Merjem
Short
by merjemascerija
ETH - update, still bleeding The weekly chart showcases it all for ETH. Daily Update below Eth still has opportunities to continue breaking after a relief rally The current green trendline will break causing a deeper sell off which will align towards the monthly target arrival (see below) Price is now touching the regression bands and will need to capitulate for buyers. Bear market is still strong. BTC dominance is rising continuously (as expected). Review the original analysis snips from below; Important notes. - It is recommended to click into the pictures to review the model figures and or view the technical setups in clearer details, depending on what format of choice is being used (mobile, laptop, pc screen). Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. II. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Monthly, original level Criteria Original level, where the market takes the order from the RBR (Rally Base Rally), the lower level is not tested, due to the original not being required. The reaction is built upon the bi-monthly and weekly chart respectively with the reactive test occurring. (Review re-tested level, fig.3) Bi-monthly level Note back to the previous structure, pertaining 2018 (Jan, 2018) - the structure has netted off the imbalance from the original all time high. This has now created a strong base for buying potential. To truly understand Fig.2 , read the below section for further explanation. Fresh level or future level has already incurred a bi-monthly test once, but not a deep retest so consider this a reactive move upon a fresh level. Structure here is still strong as a basic test of the bi-weekly close has only been tested (which is the imbalance) see (Fig.1) below, as to the Continuation pattern (CP) was required in the previous structure. (Fig.1) (Fig.2) Why is the previous structure important in making an informed decision? History repeats itself, although - no trader/investor will know the exact date, instead risk calculated moves are prepared using what information is displayed upon the market structure. The key zone is highlighted, firstly in purple to represent the bi-monthly zone. The second white dotted lines, show a distinctive close which nets off the February 26, 2018 weekly high. The high closures upon a net 'zero' is a clear distinctive technical piece of information which allows confirmation the price is showing the next move from. This does not 100% always align, however, with probability and risk calculations upon reading the candle stick closures on higher time frames, sentiment can be clear. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by LupaCapital
5
GBP AUD - Daily move incoming [XII]G'Day Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, until the opportunity for a close reaches the profit taking zone. This will be activated as long, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bearish move. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Currently experiencing a Drop Base Drop (DBD) Scenario upon the Weekly timeframe. Price can offer a correction bullish move for Daily buyers, but a longer term move will require confirmation patterns (CP). Note, as previously mentioned - using imbalances - the floor of monthly zone will now require a Break for a DBD or a Drop Base Rally - subject to the monthly zone holding - despite a significant retest. Daily Lower timeframe, shows a Drop Base Rally (DBR) Price looks to be consolidating within a trading range between the two orange zones marked. Upper orange zone has had 3x tests, so this can be a nice long for a weekly corrective move as price can confirm the departure of the lower zone. Short - subject to the retest of the re-active move - this can offer a Daily DBD scenario - however, this will require a long term move of the monthly low to break. (Review Bearish scenario weekly - Below) Bullish & Bearish confirms are marked on the Daily chart of whichever scenario presents itself, this will be traded upon a confirmation. Awaiting confirmation on the weekly Strong opportunity subject to CP upon a weekly zone. Adding Hull Moving average for 50, 200 MA Price is still closing below the 50 & 200 offering opportunities to slow. Weekly Markup Clear departure on the weekly highlighting a Fresh level (FL) - zone will require a retest and this will initiate a strong supply zone. Price may not instantly revert to the FL as the strong departure can accumulate before the next distribution pattern is confirmed. Subject to weekly closes price can revert back to test lows of <1.72 subject to a shorter term base forming upon a daily level. Note, this also aligns with the November 29, 2018 candle of interest which 'pauses' the DBR formation in what can be playing out in this scenario. Monthly with Original levels and fresh levels yet to be tested Clear departure on the weekly Monthly - (Monthly ray has been left in to represent the steepness of the curve. Price may not instantly revert to the Original level, as a trader, it's impossible to know the time limit, however the direction from a Departure will lead to an arrival using supply and demand in conjunction with a clear supply imbalance formation. The "clear two month drop" on the chart signifies the overall move was strong, whilst this does have an element of prediction, the reality is price moves in a downward right formation where an original and fresh level below the current imbalance whereby this monthly test may still be highly probable, expectations of a bullish case move is up to 1.82/1.83 before reverting down to 1.65 for a very strong reaction presenting a 2024 opportunity for a bullish move in favour of GBP. The monthly wicks, have left patterns forming with higher lows providing a strong basis. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
by LupaCapital
USDCHF: Consolidation Likely Before Trend ResumptionWith the year on year inflation in the US reaching 8.3%, the USD looks to ease of its rally slightly and most likely looking to correct to the downside after great gains in the previous numerous weeks. Shall this occur, that does not mean that the USD rally has ended, simply put the price is consolidating before resuming its upward trend. The fundamentals are still strongly in favor of the USD with inflation and FED rate hikes being the main propelling factor. Looking at the main chart, the price in the USDCHF broke the main resistance and now it looks like another upcoming resistance lies at the parity level. However looking at the risk to reward ratio which is not in our favor, we must patiently wait for the USD to retrace to achieve an equal 1:1 RR. The main support lies at around 0.91000 region which should act as a solid stop loss. Have a look at the main chart to observe the details clearly. Note that the setup would be invalidated shall the parity (1.0000) hit first before a retracement could take place. Shall the trade criteria meet (retrace to desired level) then i will make a new post with the trade instructions. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please Like & Follow for more Insights into major currency pairs and trading signals.
Long
by FX618Analysis
USD JPY - Departure awaits, series 8G'Day Traders and Analysts, This will require further updates on a daily chart.. as Price has not yet confirmed a selling Imbalance. Buying imbalances have been reached! Congrats to those who purchased along the way, great overall results from 102.XX - 123.XX!! Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, until the opportunity for a close reaches the profit taking zone. This will be activated as long, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bearish move, price may move up to 125.XX the Scenario is not invalid, simply will await confirms again. This is built into the logical approach of an imbalance trader. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Monthly chart What is the monthly chart showing? Price has now arrived at the Monthly imbalance, where it is now creating a base candle. The previous fresh level was created back in June, July 2015. August saw a bi-monthly and monthly low tested upon the fresh level created. Confirming a four day continuous selling from the distal point and opportunities to sell from the proximal line . As the current monthly chart shows a Fresh level test where March 2022 had wicked after netting out the 2015 August high. Price had immediately pivoted from the low and whip sawed back the following day. Price then began to sell off back to a reverting back to the steep trendline formation which the daily chart shows at present . Using the monthly timeframe still, USD JPY has previous created back in 2007 an original fresh level of the 123.XX zone. Now 15 years on, has retested the new imbalance as mentioned above in 2015. Analyzing the overall cycle, and looking at the example below to show how the original departure worked . Price successfully DBD from the departure supply imbalance. Recapping the fresh level from 123.XX as mentioned, indicated a clear supply imbalance; Price departed here with a perfect Departure candle scenario; Where the highlighted candle (purple) shows a indecision candle upon a monthly setup. The preceding month then has an engulfing candle which is double the height. From here the sell would be opportune position for three consecutive zones for profit taking. Note using a DCA positional method. Adding positional sells are added at a rejection of any pivot point. Daily Old Technical Analysis (positional buy) Review more technical work in the links below. Weekly; Awaiting the departure level for confirmation - with reference to the previous distal and proximal lines within the OL Supply imbalance. There is not enough evidence as yet to provide a clear selling imbalance. What is clear though, is that from the weekly wick back into the Fresh level will show two things; 1. Retest of the high to confirm a double top or lower high formation 2. A daily confirm candle to show a clear indecision candle - but again, awaiting 123.X to become an area of clear proximal sells. Refer to the daily chart below. 1.1. Weekly chart: Figure 1.1. This shows the Imbalance candle in relating to a strong move confirmation, >95% confidence of this being retested as per previous Original level. Daily chart for a potential sell position Await updates... in comments of new charts. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII Less is more
Short
by LupaCapital
4
EUR AUD - Selling to target, awaiting buys [Series 10]G'Day Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, until the opportunity for a close reaches the profit taking zone. This will be activated as long, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bearish move. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Key terms CP - Continuation pattern DBD - Drop Base Drop RBR - Rally Base Rally OP - Original price DCA - Dollar Cost Average FL - Fresh Levels Monthly at current; EUR AUD since 2017 has seen a high curve this is due to the Original level from 2009 had not been tested allowing the AUD to be considerably weak in terms of exchange rates for the Aussie. The overall supply and demand curve offers opportunities to sell upon a "step by step" case where three points of pullbacks have allowed the buyers to reach the arrival destination. Now the price is in a pure down sell upon a very strong curve for a departure, which means upon the fresh level of arrival, price will consolidate and create a new curve within the structure. However, trading comes with confirmations. Since 1.96 price has developed a large data structure whereby Drop base Drop or DBD scenario has encountered. (Revert to the example below to see a side by side reference) *Fig1* *Fig1.* The premise is, a lot of traders when learning Imbalances and supply, demand - shows the opportunity on smaller timeframes, where price will create ranges for short term hedges and or scalpers, range traders - this will appease to all trader styles. Weekly Chart The weekly has shown since March 21 from the low, a reversion identifying a channel to the up and right, which has been clear with subsequent higher lows and in conjunction with this, a high curve from the previous structure, where by price had formed a regression channel against the March low. There were to specific zones of interest where price will overcome from the Departure and look to the supply imbalance to test the fresh level it had returned from. Fig.2 , shows the curve which was over come from the buying imbalance as well as a look into the weekly structure once breaking forming a lower high upon the retest. This test subsequently closed below the "purple trendline" creating a new channel which is where proximal sells can be placed to "set and forget". Fig.2 Daily chart Awaiting the next move upon price completion; Ultimately, still holding shorts, but will be awaiting 1.39 before closing out and looking to add once the arrival is clear using the weekly chart. AUD will pose more pressure as the original level has not been tested yet since 2018 so, any pull back - trade with confirms upon sells, as the DBD is still relevant as a fractal upon the structure. Keep track of commodities; for references. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
by LupaCapital
2
Dear Elon MuskDear @elonmusk : I have heard you are facing a huge tax bill. However, there is an instrument which can help you make money. It is NZD, New Zealand Dollars, as known as Sheep Coin and Kiwi Coin. I know you like to find profit from the trips of coins to the moon. I think nzd is a nice instrument, but it is facing offensive spam from hostile market makers. The news writters gave us two execuses. One is covid19, especially the emerging B.1.1.529 variant. I don't think so because New Zealand is one of countries encountering low impact from covid19. New Zealand is far away from Europe, Asia and America, so people are less willing to travel from and to New Zealand. The other is fear of Fed taper. I don't think so either because nzd is in the progress of increasing interest rate. Although Fed may consider speed up taper, they are still in the qe state. I only believe two reasons. One is New Zealand may spend a lot of money to buy oil. The other one is spam from market makers. It is because a lot of investors know to buy nzd, so market makers try to make us unprofitable. Conclusion Can you help us punishing those market makers and bring the justice back to the nzd investors? Best Regards clocks156t174 and other nzd investors
Long
by clocks156t174
SPROTT PHYSICAL URANIUM TRUSTPOSITION TRADE U.UN (TSE), SRUUF (OTC) Catalysts: The uranium market is in structural supply/demand deficit despite nuclear energy being an essential and growing form of clean energy. Financial players and a utility contracting cycle mark near-term catalysts. I expect both physical uranium and uranium producer baskets to aggressively outperform over the coming 1-3+ years. Financial players significantly escalated their role in the uranium market, in particular, the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (OTCPK:SRUUF). This trust exists to provide investors exposure to physical uranium, but in so doing, they take and sequester physical pounds from the market. Note that Yellow Cake plc (OTCPK:YLLXF) is a similar trust for UK based investors, although it is much less active in purchasing uranium. SOURCE : Uranium: Potential Trade Of The Decade, SEEKING ALPHA, Live Hard Investing, Feb. 10, 2022 seekingalpha.com
TSX:U.UNLong
by TradingMavericks
2
US OIL - $100 move completed, Congrats!!See below for the tracking of analysis - happy to say, target achieved for the long term position holds. Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Oil is an investment, so here is the technical and logical analysis behind the long term investment. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Monthly Add positions upon the following, clear directional sell hedges Confirmation upon the daily Higher timeframes provide a clearer image of high probability of CP making natural moves aligned with Indexes, VIX and commodity pairs. Look for a three box setup, whereby draw your imbalance, a upper and lower confidence correctional move and set alerts, limits. The strong imbalance lays within the $57 - $67.5, whereby the monthly level has been tested leaving netting wicks upon the imbalance body highlighted. Weekly The weekly shows the strong whipsaw effect for the bearish indication however this ultimately created the activation for further longs to be added. With imbalances, these are always tested. Due to a first test needing a solid rested, the daily will present a closer look to the whipsaw movement October analysis Buy Zone was between 61.8 - 66.8 $ Daily Chart - buying from the retrace. Price had made a great opportunity here for a buying opportunity whereby price will test the new established Daily imbalance. The price has shown now a breakout of the downward corrective channel. see here The current daily chart This shows three potential areas whereby price has clearly marked three daily imbalances - two of which are stronger zones. . Price originally broke from the channel, and reached the desired $80 zone, where a strong pivot is reached at a strong first touch of the -0.27 or on the monthly chart a top of the previous sell off initiation. Price begins to pivot off the fresh level and reverts back to a strong pivot, which is linked close to "0" of the Fibonacci monthly sequence. This offers a daily imbalance and weekly combination. On the daily, this retests the "0" and also follows the continued downward trendline - which presents an opportunity to create a buying discount. ** Imbalances always retest. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
TVC:USOIL
by LupaCapital
EUR GBP - Quick Take Series 5G'day Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents/Warnings 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. EUR GBP is an investment, so here is the technical and logical analysis behind the long term investment. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Currently on a correctional play, but overall still short. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Quick analysis, shorting due to monthly and weekly timeframes The Monthly Imbalances are set: Add positions upon the following, clear directional sell hedges Confirmation upon the daily Higher timeframes provide a clearer image. Look for a three box setup, whereby draw your imbalance, a upper and lower confidence correctional move and set alerts, limits. Box 1 being imbalance Box 2 being correctional pullback to retest an imbalance. Box 3 Target profit at an imbalance Monthly These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 0.95 whereby the Euro Failed to overcome, this however was the pivotal imbalance to sell from a Fibonacci extension perspective. A large zone formed here on a monthly as previous historical monthly wicks have shown immediate whipsaw effects, revert to the daily chart in to see three examples of a trading week immediately 'tailing off' During February, March 2020 - the price surge accelerated growth but instantly rejected, the timeframe is sped up, but imbalance method still applies here as the zone failed to hold. GBP still holds a resounding power over the EU to prevent parity. The Monthly lower high upon the chart formed in September and December respectively, both coincide with Fig 1.0 Long term imbalance pathways It's clear, either sell upon confirmation with current positions Await the buying opportunity to reach a weekly 'resistance', but in reality is a pivot imbalance where price will form a sell opportunity. Weekly Imbalances Upon the weekly chart price has created a short opportunity which extended out of the previous weekly imbalance and has been previously tested twice. Subsequently creating two lower highs. Price had corrected upon an engulfing breakout candle after a consolidation wave which adopted the next move. Upon the breakout of this zone, price now walks up to the monthly imbalance and once the zone is breached, price is expected to retrace to build on the order block as a reversion pivot Selling imbalance, the breakout and retest is a strong reset upon the imbalance zone, however, the price channel is still forming overall selling trends, so waiting for the confirmation upon a daily will show sell as the engulfing bullish candle will indicate a push for short buyers, but long term, sellers are in control. Daily Imbalance Here is the daily logical trendlines which show where price can break in the short term - before the next swing is prominent. Note the imbalance here (upper) is strong in terms of failing to be breached, whereby the wick of the high failed to nett off, meaning the selling imbalance is >95% confidence of selling. EUR USD overlay Something of interest, showing a stronger USD in conjunction with the SPX - again this correlated but not causative. Denote the lows of the SPX has followed with EUR USD creating lower highs. Review USD JPY, SPX Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
Short
by LupaCapital
6