EURGBP Position RR 1-110 (Technical)Yesterday I have Entered this trade with 5 pips stop loss using 2% of my bank account. Currently it moved 50 pips in my direction. I just put it a bit above breakeven.
Entry Reasons:
On Montly/Weekly we can see that:
1) The price is slowing down.
2) On weekly chart we can see a Falling wedge formation.
3) Plus it is on monthly support level.
4) Also we can see the RSI MACD Divergence.
So, in summary on technical side this pair is bullish. Will closely look at its fundamentals in process.
My entry was: 0.83101
My Sl: 0.83151
My TP: 0.85601
PS: I wont move my SL to make the price more space to move.
Will Update frequently.
Positiontrade
VIST : POSITION TRADECrude oil prices gained slightly on Wednesday, extending multi-year highs supported by an improved demand outlook as accelerating COVID-19 vaccinations helped lift travel restrictions in Europe and the US. On the supply side, OPEC+ agreed to keep to their plan to gradually ease supply curbs through July, signalling the ongoing strengthening of market fundamentals. Also, expectations for more Iranian crude exports faded after Iran's deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said that Tehran's nuclear talks are unlikely to conclude before Iran's presidential elections. Meantime, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that stocks of crude oil in the US plunged by 8.537 million barrels in the week ended June 11th of 2021, the biggest draw since the week ended on September 11th, 2020. On Tuesday, Brent crude added $1.24 or 1.67% to $74.46 to its highest levels since April 2019, while WTI crude rose $1.24, or 1.8%, to settle at $72.12 a barrel, its highest since October 2018.
Source : Trading Economics, 16-Jun-2021
tradingeconomics.com
The world faces a potential global oil supply shortage over the coming decade as the pullback from fossil fuels project by parts of the industry creates a gap with expected demand, Russell Hardy, CEO of commodity trader Vitol, said June 15.
Source : S&P Global Platts, 15-Jun-2021
www.spglobal.com
Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company’s principal assets located in Vaca Muerta with approximately 134,000 acres. It also owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. As of December 31, 2020, it had proved reserves of 128.1 MMBOE. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Source : Seeking Alpha
seekingalpha.com
CRWD : RESET / POSITION TRADECrowdStrike: Another Solid Quarter; Buy Opportunistically
~ After solid F1Q22 results, we reiterate our buy rating on CrowdStrike. We urge long-term investors to buy shares on weakness and existing shareholders to remain invested in the stock.
~ Elevated security spending, new customer additions and upsells into its install base, low churn, and displacement of legacy vendors will drive CrowdStrike revenue.
~ CrowdStrike will become a formidable competitor to Splunk with its Humio acquisition. CrowdStrike hinted on the call that it displaced Splunk at a major customer.
~ CrowdStrike reported another exceptional quarter beating all metrics and guided up. We expect CrowdStrike to remain a dominant security vendor in the near term.
~ CrowdStrike stock will remain expensive and volatile. Hence investors should be buying shares on weakness as when opportunities are presented.
SOURCE : Tech Stock Pros, SeekingAlpha, 04-Jun-21
seekingalpha.com
MATIC/USDT Ascending Triangle on daily
I like this chart and am considering a long. We've seem to be forming an ascending triangle, have a rising daily 200, 50 and 20MA, as well as a rising 8 and 34 EMA and price is above them all.
It's difficult to say that a breakout is imminent, but we're certainly in an uptrend.
There's a few different ways to play this.
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Strategy 1; Enter now, at this level (2.2) with a stop X% below the recent low on Dec 17th. The thesis is that if price got below there, it is not being held by the EMA8 anymore and this is NOT the breakout that we are looking for.
or
Staregy 2; Wait for price to fall back to an area of confluence between the 50 Daily SMA and the rising support line of the triangle. and enter at an area of value
or
Strategy 3; Wait for the breakout and then place a limit order on the throwback, with a stop exit X% below the low of the breakout candle.
On balance, I think strategy 2 or 3 gives the best risk to reward profile. If I was a permabull, then of course, I'd look to enter now with a stop below the recent lows. That might turn out to be the best trade but we can't control the price of the asset we are trading and it's usually better to wait for price to come back to us. For now, this is going on my planned trades watchlist.
GOOGLWelcome my dear Fried!
It is my analysis for currency pair for the next week.
Is there any doubt, question, criticism or praise?
you can write just below. I will be responding when I read! Success to us
Attetion: CFDs, Forex, Cryptcurrency are complex financial products and come with a high risk of losing money.
Transparent & Ethical Trader
¡Bienvenido, querido Fried!
Es mi análisis del par de divisas para la próxima semana.
¿Hay alguna duda, pregunta, crítica o elogio?
puedes escribir justo debajo. ¡Estaré respondiendo cuando lea! Éxito para nosotros
CFDs are complex financial products and come with a high risk of losing money.
Atención: los CFD, Forex, Criptomonedas y otros son productos financieros complejos y tienen un riesgo de pérdida muy alto.
Trader transparente y ético
SILVER - Bullish Wave 3 soonAccording to Elliott Wave Theory, Silver (XAG/USD) might have completed its Wave 2 retracement.
Here we can break down its recent descent since the beginning of February 2021 into visible Leading & Ending Diagonals.
One concern is that thus far, it has only retraced to 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement.
It could definitely go down further for corrective combinations (W-X-Y / X-Z) - however that is still entirely a speculation.
What is visible now is that - we have likely completed an A-B-C (Wave 2) and if no corrective combination is in play, we could potentially go up very impulsively as Wave 3.
FUTU : RESET / POSITION TRADEFutu Holdings Limited operates an online brokerage and wealth management platform in Hong Kong and internationally. The company provides trading, clearing, and settlement services; margin financing and securities lending services; and stock yield enhancement program.
While Robinhood gets most of the hype in the US, Chinese wealth management platform Futu Holdings (NASDAQ:FUTU) continues to perform at a high level.
For Q1 of 2021, Futu reported revenue of $283.56 million and EPS of $1.03 per share. While many companies beat estimates, it's impressive the degree that Futu beats at.
Revenues came in $65.52 million over estimates, a beat of 30%. Meanwhile, analysts were expecting EPS of $0.61 (the $1.03 was a beat of 68%). This isn't the first time that Futu Holdings has beaten analyst estimates. The company is a "serial estimate beater" and has continually outpaced estimates.
In Q1 Futu saw accelerated user growth. Paying clients totaled more than 789K, which was a 231% YoY growth. Futu saw YoY paying client growth of 160% in Q4, so the growth in paying users is accelerating. Total revenues were $283.6 million for the quarter, an increase of 349% YoY.
Futu Holdings seems to fly under the radar when comparing its valuation and growth rates to other companies with higher multiples and lower growth. A sustained triple-digit growth rate is remarkable, and Futu's Q1 earnings showed that this trend remains intact. While execution always needs to be proven quarter by quarter, a business growing as rapidly as Futu Holdings can quickly build a margin of safety due to its high growth rates.
Source : Wealth Insights, Seeking Alpha, 20-May-2021
seekingalpha.com
seekingalpha.com
EUR/CHF Long ~300 - 400pips 0-6 MonthsSummary of Analysis
The Bank of Switzerland has been very vocal they plan to keep a very accommodating stance and seems like they will be one of the last countries to begin raising rates. This should see EUR/CHF strengthen, however, due exchange rates in EUR/USD it may be a slow grind up. This however, should provide some stability at current prices in EUR/CHF providing a good risk/reward. If weakness continues in EUR/CHF below this price level there is a good chance The Bank of Switzerland would step in.
Meanwhile ECB continues easy policy, however, an economy quickly re-opening and progress on the vaccine front may push ECB to begin to consider pulling back on it's purchases.
This will most likely not be a fast action increase in price, however, seems to have a good floor under it.
News References
he Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan
The franc remains highly valued.”
“Inflation is only slightly above zero.”
“Productive capacities are not fully utilized in Switzerland.”
"Against this background, it would be completely premature to start reducing the balance sheet and tighten monetary conditions."
"It would be wrong to now signal to the world that the SNB is the first central bank considering a restrictive policy."
“The size of the balance sheet is not a problem.”
"We can even expand the balance sheet further if that is necessary."
www.fxstreet.com
"high-stakes war of attrition between Brussels and Switzerland -- not unlike Britain’s acrimonious Brexit battle with the 27-country bloc -- that is putting a 250 billion Swiss franc ($278 billion) goods-trading relationship at risk."
“The proposals were considered insufficient by Switzerland, and for this reason the positions remain quite far away from each other,” Andre Simonazzi, a spokesman for the government, said on May 12.
www.bloomberg.com
“The bounceback in Swiss manufacturing is continuing at such speed that there are widespread signs of scarcity,” the Credit Suisse and procure.ch said. While still below the manufacturing-sector index, the rally in services also “picked up speed.”
www.bloomberg.com
“The labor market has showed first signs of a broad improvement in May,” labor agency chief Detlef Scheele said in a statement. “The fallout of the coronavirus crisis remains clearly visible but is getting somewhat smaller.”
www.bloomberg.com
When the ECB meets again next week the economic outlook will have brightened further, inflation will continue to surge, and it will be hard to once again avoid any taper talk. The Thursday meeting could be packed with insightful information but probably not with tangible action.
think.ing.com
"We tend to still favour higher interest rates"
think.ing.com
n November, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde openly warned of the risk of persistent labor-market impairment, and she said on Thursday that “we are still concerned.” However, her chief economist, Philip Lane, said last month that there are reasons to be optimistic that scarring won’t be as bad as it was in the aftermath of 2008.
“We are going to be starting this recovery with a much lower level of unemployment that we usually have after a recession,” said Neville Hill, economist at Credit Suisse. “The amount of scarring that would impair a recovery is not really there.”
www.bloomberg.com
Bank Analysis
You would probably say that the huge amounts of EUR liquidity are a key factor depressing EUR/CHF right now. THE ECB’s balance sheet has grown EUR700bn this year. The Swiss National Bank’s balance sheet just CHF10bn – with no signs of the aggressive FX intervention we saw from the SNB last summer. We would expect that to resume, however, should EUR/CHF make it anywhere near the 1.0750/1.0800 area.
On the subject of FX intervention, the SNB holds its quarterly monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Despite slightly disappointing 1Q21 GDP data, expect the SNB to remain reasonably upbeat on growth this year – e.g. in the 2.5% range. Also expect the SNB to maintain its description of the CHF as highly valued and its commitment to keep rates at -0.75% and continue FX intervention if necessary. Any change here would be a big surprise.
think.ing.com
EUR
After a challenging start to the year, recent trends have turned more encouraging for the Eurozone economy.
Eurozone Q1 GDP fell 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, a second-straight quarterly decline. For the region's major economies, German GDP fell 1.7% quarter-over-quarter, Spain's GDP fell 0.5% and Italy's GDP fell 0.4%. French GDP however, managed a 0.4% gain.
By late Q1, there were hints of stabilization as Eurozone March retail sales rose 2.7% month-over-month and industrial output edged up 0.1%. That said, concerns have persisted that COVID could hold back the recovery, given restrictions were still in place in some countries in April and to some extent in May, including France and Germany, and also given an initially slow rollout of COVID vaccinations across the region.
However, the pace of vaccinations has since improved and, while still lagging on a cumulative basis, the current pace of vaccinations across the Eurozone is more comparable to that in the United States and the United Kingdom.
These more favorable developments are boosting economic confidence and point to stronger growth ahead. The Eurozone May manufacturing PMI eased to 62.8, a level still consistent with a solid rebound in activity. More significantly, the May services PMI rose to 55.1, consistent with renewed growth in the service sector and the highest reading since 2018.
Given these encouraging trends, we have revised our growth outlook for the Eurozone higher. We expect GDP growth of 3.9% for full-year 2021 and 4.2% for full-year 2022.
We expect a restrained euro in the near term and modest gains over the medium term. However, there is some upside risk to our base case forecast.
CHF
Swiss Economic Outlook Starting to Brighten
After a sluggish start to 2021, recent news has offered a more encouraging outlook for the Swiss economic outlook.
Confidence surveys in particular point to an improving economy. The April KOF leading indicator jumped to 134.0, the highest level since at least 1990. The April manufacturing PMI also rose to 69.5, the highest level since at least 1995.
March real retail sales jumped 22.6% year-over-year, a sturdy result but one that was also flattered by base effects, given the weak March 2020 sales figure. Q2 consumer confidence improved more than expected to -7.1, the best outcome since late 2018.
COVID developments remain on an overall improving path. The government announced plans to ease restrictions further by late May, including the resumption of indoor dining, increased capacity limits at theaters, and potentially allowing for some outdoor gatherings.
Despite an expected contraction in Q1 GDP, we forecast the Swiss economy to growth 3.6% for full-year 2021 and 3.0% for full year 2022.
Inflation Remains Minimal, Monetary Policy Remains Easy
Inflation remains largely absent as the April CPI rose 0.3% year-over-year and the trimmed mean CPI rose just 0.2%.
Swiss National Bank (SNB) policymakers are offering every indication that monetary policy will likely remain accommodative for an extended period. In late April, SNB President Jordan said the negative interest rate policy and pledge to intervene in foreign exchange markets were essential. He added that he could not say when interest rates might rise.
Despite the FX intervention pledge, the central bank might have been less active in April as foreign exchange reserves fell 16.2 billion francs last month, the first monthly decline since October 2020.
Our outlook is for gradual weakness in the franc versus the euro over the medium term and relative stability versus the U.S. dollar. However, there are upside risks to this scenario.
wellsfargo.bluematrix.com
SNB continues to maintain that it “remains ready to intervene due to a highly valued franc.” Medium term, as EMU vaccinations gather pace, headway would also limit defensive demand for CHF. CHF may lag on non-USD crosses such as EUR and risk currencies (Commodity Bloc, GBP and Asia EMFX). Still continue to point to upside risks in USDCHF post the US May jobs report, noting that the unit has failed to extend its decline below a good support range at 0.8919-27 so far. The team still expects gains could extend at least towards a decent resistance range at 0.9074-94 or even higher towards the formation target at 0.9130.
www.citibank.com.hk
Bank Forecasts
ING 0-3 Months Target of 1.12; 3-6 Months Target of 1.15
Wells Fargo 0-3 Months Target of 1.05; 3-6 Month Target of 1.11
Citibank 0-3 Month Target of 1.13; 3-6 Month Target of 1.16
Targets
For this trade I am looking for the price of 1.12 in a 0 - 6 Month timeframe
Possible Entries
Looking for entry around 0.88 & 0.70 levels.
TDOC : POSITION TRADE / RESETTeladoc is the sixth-largest holding in the ARKK ETF - a top performing actively managed fund focused on disruptive innovations.
Teladoc reported third-quarter revenue up 109% year-over-year to $288.8 million. Total visits increased 206% year-over-year to 2.8 million.
The company expects to end the year with 50 million to 51 million U.S. paid members and 21 million to 22 million visit fee only members.
The Teladoc - Livongo merger has created the singular global, consumer-centered virtual care platform.
Together, they have formed the dominant category leader with a massive $121 billion Total Addressable Market.
seekingalpha.com
NEM : RESET / POSITION TRADE / HEDGENewmont Mining just came off a record quarter in Q3 with free cash flow of ~$1.3 billion, and increased its dividend by 60% to $1.60 per share annually.
Despite these bullish developments, the stock has slumped with the rest of the sector, down more than 20% from its August highs.
This correction has left the stock trading below 13x FY2021 annual EPS estimates, with a dividend that's 70% higher than that of the S&P 500.
Therefore, if we see any further weakness below $57.25, I would view this as a low-risk buying opportunity for long-term investors looking for steady free cash flow and yield.
seekingalpha.com
GOOGL : RESET / POSITION TRADETo sum up everything, GOOGL is a great business. Search is wonderful, and provides a continuous tailwind for the business. There's very little that can stop GOOGL, including competitors and the government. My favorite reason to own GOOGL is its huge pile of cash, which provides a tremendous margin of safety, to weather any storm. That cash also offers wonderful optionality, including the possibility of buybacks. Personally, I'm a buyer up to $2K.
Source : John Rhoades, SeekingAlpha
seekingalpha.com
ZM : BASE 0 DURATION / POSITION TRADEZoom's long-term investment thesis is alive. It remains the best-of-breed for work-from-home communication solutions. Zoom has become a verb, very much like 'Skype,' 'Google,' and 'DocuSign.' This achievement alone demonstrates Zoom possesses an incredible combination of moats in branding and network effects. As it grows, it adds more value, and users will find it very hard to leave. Unsurprisingly, Zoom is now a $100B company. But it isn't going to stop.
Competitive advantage/moat
Moats are commonly categorized into four types: Network effects, low costs, high switching cost, and intangible assets.
Zoom possesses the most powerful ones, network effects, and brand name. Zoom is reliable, easy to use, and easily deployable. Zoom's net promoter score ('NPS') is incredibly high +70. Competitors do not even compare. None has the virality effect in 2020, quite like Zoom.
As Zoom expands features, use cases, and integrates deeper into other platforms, we believe Zoom would also acquire the high switching cost moat. While this moat isn't seen as necessary as the first two, it would help Zoom to retain customers and maintain a large user base to monetize.
Revenue was $777M, up 367% YoY from $167M, an acceleration of 17% from $646M in Q2'21. Q3'21 revenue was 24% higher than its entire revenue in FY20.
International revenue was 30% and grew 629% vs. 300% domestically.
Gross margin was 68.2%, a significant drop from 83% YoY and 72.3% QoQ due to a considerable increase in free users' usage, particularly in K-12 education intuitions. During the quarter, Zoom recorded 3.5 trillion meeting minutes, up 75% QoQ. Once Covid-related usage diminishes, we expect gross margin to improve towards Zoom's long-term target.
Operating margin was 37.4%, up from 12.8% in Q3 last year, and a decrease from Q2'21's margin of 41.7%. The figure is still extremely high and demonstrates exceptional operating leverage.
Free cash flow was £388M, up from $55M in Q3 last year. That's a 50% free cash flow margin (!). Management intends to maintain a high R&D budget of 10% of sales over the long-term. Thus, Zoom's high free cash flow generation allows Zoom to continue fuelling growth.
The outlook is excellent in our view. The FY21 revenue of 2.58B is a five-fold increase from FY20. Q4'21 revenue will be almost 40% higher than the entire revenue in FY20.
Remember that Zoom is a best-of-breed SaaS company that can touch everyone (almost)'s lives. In effect, Zoom is listening, watching, and collecting the most granule data from people's lives, at work and home. The data Zoom collects provides optionality long into the future. For the short to medium term, Zoom Phone, better monetization, K-12 free users' conversion, and expansion into telehealth, commerce, workflow, fitness, and internationally should provide a surprise boost to Zoom's growth.
SOURCE : Zoom: Will Surprise Your Portfolio In 2021, Multifaceted Growth Ahead, DTF CAPITAL, 06 Jan 2021, SeekingAlpha
seekingalpha.com
SLV : RESET / POSITION TRADESLV: Breakout Potential
SUMMARY :
The iShares Silver Trust ETF is trading under pressure and the instrument has lost more than 17% of its value since August 10th, 2020.
However, irrational exuberance in stock markets, a negative unemployment trend in the U.S., and an alarming surge in U.S. money supply could help SLV to break above prior highs.
As a potential breakout trigger, we will be watching the $24 level because we think that a sustained bullish move here could extend into a much wider rally into 2021.
SOURCE: Dec. 15, 2020 3:13 PM ET / iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)
seekingalpha.com
NBEV : TREND REVERSAL / POSITION TRADEValue stock on early stage uptrend possibly mispriced with significant growth potential with cannabis legalization and e-commerce tailwinds.
SOURCE : seekingalpha.com
SHLS : ASCENDING TRIANGLE / POSITION TRADEINVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS :
EBOS : mission critical components for power grids; necessary to carry electric current produced by solar panels to an inverter and power the grid.
Customers : engineering, procurement, and construction firms.
Plug-and-play components : installing components is expensive; products improve reliability and help avoid expensive installation crews, lowering total costs.
Provides a one-stop solution thats hard to obtain from other providers.
9M20 sales growth 28% YoY; sector leading margins: 23% operating margin vs 8% peers
Increasing operating cash flow and already generating profits
Global market for solar PV balance to grow 16% CAGR to $42.2B by 2024
SOURCE: Zarr Pacificador, 5 Feb 2021, Caylum Trading Institute
news.caylum.com
ACTC : COIL / POSITION TRADEArcLight (ACTC) is bringing Proterra to market at a reasonable valuation.
Proterra is a best in class commercial electric vehicle company with a solid offering, organization, and plan making it much more than an EV bus company.
Since its founding in 2004 and first bus delivery in 2009 Proterra has sold more than 1,000 EV buses in North America, the largest in region, and has a 50% market share.
The company has installed over 450 charge points. The plan is to be able to deliver peak power to handle hundreds of vehicles with fleet chargers some of which are capable of charging 40 buses at a time. The company is focused on building out fleet depots, en-route top up locations, and warehouse charging locations using existing infrastructure where possible.
Unlike many of their EV peers the price to sales ratio on any near term year is still fairly inexpensive at 13.8x compared to a lot higher levels from SPAC EVs of late.
Gross margins are expected to plateau around 25% which is likely to be more than attainable in our experience. They have a roadmap plotted to achieve this via scale and component improves by 2025 from current levels of 4%.
SOURCE : Steve Zachritz, Jan. 13, 2021, Seeking Alpha
seekingalpha.com