AMD POSITION TRADEConsolidation done and looking ready to break pattern resistance. Tailwinds driven by Tesla and EV adoption, growing Data Center demand, growth in gaming and increased Bitcoin adoption.
Positiontrade
TDOC : POSITION TRADE / RESETTeladoc is the sixth-largest holding in the ARKK ETF - a top performing actively managed fund focused on disruptive innovations.
Teladoc reported third-quarter revenue up 109% year-over-year to $288.8 million. Total visits increased 206% year-over-year to 2.8 million.
The company expects to end the year with 50 million to 51 million U.S. paid members and 21 million to 22 million visit fee only members.
The Teladoc - Livongo merger has created the singular global, consumer-centered virtual care platform.
Together, they have formed the dominant category leader with a massive $121 billion Total Addressable Market.
seekingalpha.com
NEM : RESET / POSITION TRADE / HEDGENewmont Mining just came off a record quarter in Q3 with free cash flow of ~$1.3 billion, and increased its dividend by 60% to $1.60 per share annually.
Despite these bullish developments, the stock has slumped with the rest of the sector, down more than 20% from its August highs.
This correction has left the stock trading below 13x FY2021 annual EPS estimates, with a dividend that's 70% higher than that of the S&P 500.
Therefore, if we see any further weakness below $57.25, I would view this as a low-risk buying opportunity for long-term investors looking for steady free cash flow and yield.
seekingalpha.com
GOOGL : RESET / POSITION TRADETo sum up everything, GOOGL is a great business. Search is wonderful, and provides a continuous tailwind for the business. There's very little that can stop GOOGL, including competitors and the government. My favorite reason to own GOOGL is its huge pile of cash, which provides a tremendous margin of safety, to weather any storm. That cash also offers wonderful optionality, including the possibility of buybacks. Personally, I'm a buyer up to $2K.
Source : John Rhoades, SeekingAlpha
seekingalpha.com
ZM : BASE 0 DURATION / POSITION TRADEZoom's long-term investment thesis is alive. It remains the best-of-breed for work-from-home communication solutions. Zoom has become a verb, very much like 'Skype,' 'Google,' and 'DocuSign.' This achievement alone demonstrates Zoom possesses an incredible combination of moats in branding and network effects. As it grows, it adds more value, and users will find it very hard to leave. Unsurprisingly, Zoom is now a $100B company. But it isn't going to stop.
Competitive advantage/moat
Moats are commonly categorized into four types: Network effects, low costs, high switching cost, and intangible assets.
Zoom possesses the most powerful ones, network effects, and brand name. Zoom is reliable, easy to use, and easily deployable. Zoom's net promoter score ('NPS') is incredibly high +70. Competitors do not even compare. None has the virality effect in 2020, quite like Zoom.
As Zoom expands features, use cases, and integrates deeper into other platforms, we believe Zoom would also acquire the high switching cost moat. While this moat isn't seen as necessary as the first two, it would help Zoom to retain customers and maintain a large user base to monetize.
Revenue was $777M, up 367% YoY from $167M, an acceleration of 17% from $646M in Q2'21. Q3'21 revenue was 24% higher than its entire revenue in FY20.
International revenue was 30% and grew 629% vs. 300% domestically.
Gross margin was 68.2%, a significant drop from 83% YoY and 72.3% QoQ due to a considerable increase in free users' usage, particularly in K-12 education intuitions. During the quarter, Zoom recorded 3.5 trillion meeting minutes, up 75% QoQ. Once Covid-related usage diminishes, we expect gross margin to improve towards Zoom's long-term target.
Operating margin was 37.4%, up from 12.8% in Q3 last year, and a decrease from Q2'21's margin of 41.7%. The figure is still extremely high and demonstrates exceptional operating leverage.
Free cash flow was £388M, up from $55M in Q3 last year. That's a 50% free cash flow margin (!). Management intends to maintain a high R&D budget of 10% of sales over the long-term. Thus, Zoom's high free cash flow generation allows Zoom to continue fuelling growth.
The outlook is excellent in our view. The FY21 revenue of 2.58B is a five-fold increase from FY20. Q4'21 revenue will be almost 40% higher than the entire revenue in FY20.
Remember that Zoom is a best-of-breed SaaS company that can touch everyone (almost)'s lives. In effect, Zoom is listening, watching, and collecting the most granule data from people's lives, at work and home. The data Zoom collects provides optionality long into the future. For the short to medium term, Zoom Phone, better monetization, K-12 free users' conversion, and expansion into telehealth, commerce, workflow, fitness, and internationally should provide a surprise boost to Zoom's growth.
SOURCE : Zoom: Will Surprise Your Portfolio In 2021, Multifaceted Growth Ahead, DTF CAPITAL, 06 Jan 2021, SeekingAlpha
seekingalpha.com
SLV : RESET / POSITION TRADESLV: Breakout Potential
SUMMARY :
The iShares Silver Trust ETF is trading under pressure and the instrument has lost more than 17% of its value since August 10th, 2020.
However, irrational exuberance in stock markets, a negative unemployment trend in the U.S., and an alarming surge in U.S. money supply could help SLV to break above prior highs.
As a potential breakout trigger, we will be watching the $24 level because we think that a sustained bullish move here could extend into a much wider rally into 2021.
SOURCE: Dec. 15, 2020 3:13 PM ET / iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)
seekingalpha.com
NBEV : TREND REVERSAL / POSITION TRADEValue stock on early stage uptrend possibly mispriced with significant growth potential with cannabis legalization and e-commerce tailwinds.
SOURCE : seekingalpha.com
SHLS : ASCENDING TRIANGLE / POSITION TRADEINVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS :
EBOS : mission critical components for power grids; necessary to carry electric current produced by solar panels to an inverter and power the grid.
Customers : engineering, procurement, and construction firms.
Plug-and-play components : installing components is expensive; products improve reliability and help avoid expensive installation crews, lowering total costs.
Provides a one-stop solution thats hard to obtain from other providers.
9M20 sales growth 28% YoY; sector leading margins: 23% operating margin vs 8% peers
Increasing operating cash flow and already generating profits
Global market for solar PV balance to grow 16% CAGR to $42.2B by 2024
SOURCE: Zarr Pacificador, 5 Feb 2021, Caylum Trading Institute
news.caylum.com
ACTC : COIL / POSITION TRADEArcLight (ACTC) is bringing Proterra to market at a reasonable valuation.
Proterra is a best in class commercial electric vehicle company with a solid offering, organization, and plan making it much more than an EV bus company.
Since its founding in 2004 and first bus delivery in 2009 Proterra has sold more than 1,000 EV buses in North America, the largest in region, and has a 50% market share.
The company has installed over 450 charge points. The plan is to be able to deliver peak power to handle hundreds of vehicles with fleet chargers some of which are capable of charging 40 buses at a time. The company is focused on building out fleet depots, en-route top up locations, and warehouse charging locations using existing infrastructure where possible.
Unlike many of their EV peers the price to sales ratio on any near term year is still fairly inexpensive at 13.8x compared to a lot higher levels from SPAC EVs of late.
Gross margins are expected to plateau around 25% which is likely to be more than attainable in our experience. They have a roadmap plotted to achieve this via scale and component improves by 2025 from current levels of 4%.
SOURCE : Steve Zachritz, Jan. 13, 2021, Seeking Alpha
seekingalpha.com
FUBO : COIL / POSITION TRADEFubo Stock Forecast: Up, But What To Consider In 2021
Fubo is a sports-focused alternative to cable TV. Shares have risen sharply since their IPO.
The company is developing a sportsbook that integrates with their TV platform. I think this is a brilliant strategy.
Their convertible debt is a better deal than the stock, but the shares could be worth a flier.
Some back-of-the-envelope calculations on how much Fubo stock could be worth. There's tremendous upside if they pull off integrating a sportsbook into their TV service.
Fubo is a fun play that has the potential to 20x in value if they execute properly over the next few years due to their explosive subscriber growth and potential monetization of sports betting.
SOURCE : Logan Kane, Fubo Stock Forecast: Up, But What To Consider In 2021, Feb. 04, 2021 8:45 AM ET, SeekingAlpha
seekingalpha.com
DOTBTC : POLKADOT POSITION TRADEPolkadot: Networking For Blockchains
The Polkadot blockchain aims to provide interoperability and security to other blockchains, helping to solve issues like scalability.
In a multi-blockchain world, interoperability could be a potentially valuable function. If a small number of blockchains becomes dominant this value proposition will be significantly weakened though.
Polkadot is currently the leading interoperability blockchain, but its value is uncertain and dependent on how the blockchain ecosystem evolves in the future.
SOURCE: Richard Durant, Polkadot: Networking For Blockchains, Mar. 08, 2021 11:38 PM ET, SeekingAlpha
seekingalpha.com
Polkadot: Can DOT 10x in 2021?? DEEP DIVE!! (Video)
SOURCE : COIN BUREAU, Jan 12, 2021, YouTube
www.youtube.com
XLMUSD : COIL / POSITION TRADEPut simply, Stellar is an open network that allows money to be moved and stored. When it was released in July 2014, one of its goals was boosting financial inclusion by reaching the world’s unbanked — but soon afterwards, its priorities shifted to helping financial firms connect with one another through blockchain technology.
Fees are a sticking point for many. However, high costs when making cross-border payments aren’t just exclusive to fiat-based payments solutions such as PayPal — transaction fees have also been known to go through the roof on the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains because of congestion.
Stellar is unique because every transaction costs just 0.00001 XLM. Given how one unit of this cryptocurrency only costs a few cents at the time of writing, this helps ensure that users keep more of their money.
Few blockchain projects have managed to secure partnerships with big-brand technology companies and fintech firms. A few years ago, Stellar and IBM teamed up to launch World Wire, a project that allowed large financial institutions to submit transactions to the Stellar network and transact using bridge assets such as stablecoins.
ADAUUSD : COIL / POSITION TRADECardano’s latest protocol update will be a game-changer and could play a key role in triggering the ascent for the ADA price.
Alonzo promises major makeover
IOHK, the development team behind Cardano, announced the next protocol level update for Cardano, known as “Alonzo.” The roadmap reveals that this upgrade will arrive in the summer of this year.
The recent announcement reads,
Alonzo will add support for smart contracts – digital agreements – to Cardano about four months from now. It will open up opportunities for businesses and developers, by allowing the creation of smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps) for decentralized finance (DeFi).
The latest announcement comes after Cardano received two critical updates, the multi-asset support functionality and the Plutus platform. These updates will serve as a foundation on which the Alonzo update will be built.
This development will be implemented using IOHK’s hard fork combinator technology and will make Cardano a versatile platform for building smart contracts that fuel business needs.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
ADA has been consolidating for the past 6 weeks. A conviction break-out and close above its 2018 high could potentially signal the beginning of the next rally.
Additional Reference : youtu.be
LINKUSD : COIL / POSITION / SWING TRADEChainlink is a decentralized oracle network that brings off-chain data into an on-chain format, bridging the gap between the isolated blockchain and real-world data.
It aims to ensure that the external information (pricing, weather data, event outcomes) fed to smart contracts remains untampered with.
Chainlink is built on top of the Ethereum blockchain and Chainlink (LINK) is the native token of the protocol. LINK is used to pay Chainlink network operators for their services.
Smart contracts are the “If-This, Then-That” software code through which instructions will be executed when specific conditions are met. However, smart contracts can read only on-chain data.
For smart contracts to read real-world data, they must find a way to connect and synchronize with external data sources. This is where oracles are used as the ‘bridge’ that allows off-chain data to be made available on-chain.
The Chainlink protocol is a decentralized network of nodes that enables real-world data to be made available on-chain.
Chainlink’s main users are project developers who want to integrate Chainlink into their projects or those who want to sell their data and become part of the participating nodes.
Some of the notable players participating in the Chainlink ecosystem include Aave, Synthetix, Yearn.Finance, and Google.
29 Projects Integrated With Chainlink : decrypt.co
Deep Dive on Chainlink and Risks : youtu.be
Source : Coin Bureau, www.youtube.com
ATOMUSD : COIL / SWING / POSITION TRADEThe Internet of Blockchains.
Cosmos is an ever-expanding ecosystem of interconnected apps and services, built for a decentralized future.
The long-awaited vision of the Cosmos blockchain has now been realized, as holders of the ATOM (+9.69%) token have voted through inter-blockchain communication (IBC), enabling assets to transfer easily between blockchains.
The final vote to enable the feature was 112 million to 75, overwhelmingly in support of activation.
In the simplest terms, IBC enables messages to travel between blockchains that have implemented the standard. The most obvious use case in crypto is sending messages to transfer tokens off one chain and onto another.
SOURCE: www.coindesk.com
Cosmos (ATOM): Start of a BIG BANG for DeFi?? : youtu.be
SOURCE : COIN BUREAU, www.youtube.com
SILJ : RESET / POSITION TRADESILJ is likely to outperform the metal on the next leg higher
Now could be the perfect time to purchase silver mining shares on a scale-down basis before the next leg to the upside.
Silver mining shares tend to outperform the price of silver on the upside and underperform during price corrections. Therefore, they act as leveraged tools for the silver market. Most leveraged products involve time decay as they use put and call options to create the gearing. However, silver mining shares have no expiration dates. The leverage comes from the ability to extract more silver at higher production costs from the earth's crust as the price of the metal appreciates.
As we return to a more normal economy, we are going to face challenges. No one knows what is ahead. The 10 year note is beginning to indicate that there are some inflationary pressures. Rates have hit 175 as a recent high. The 10 year note is anticipating inflation. But interest rates cannot go up. In the 1970s, even though we had inflation, the debt was not that much of a problem and the US dollar had just come off the gold standard, so we could print a lot of money. Today, we are in a very different situation. We have massive debt of almost $30 trillion and the US dollar has lost most of its value. As the government prints more and more money, the dollar will continue to lose value, and gold and silver are becoming increasingly attractive investments.
REFERENCES :
EQUITY MANAGEMENT ACADEMY, 17 Apr 2021, SeekingAlpha
seekingalpha.com
ANDREW HECHT, 23 Mar 2021, SeekingAlpha
seekingalpha.com
POLKADOT : DOTUSD NEW BASE / POSITION TRADEPolkadot: Networking For Blockchains
The Polkadot blockchain aims to provide interoperability and security to other blockchains, helping to solve issues like scalability.
In a multi-blockchain world, interoperability could be a potentially valuable function. If a small number of blockchains becomes dominant this value proposition will be significantly weakened though.
Polkadot is currently the leading interoperability blockchain, but its value is uncertain and dependent on how the blockchain ecosystem evolves in the future.
SOURCE: Richard Durant, Polkadot: Networking For Blockchains, Mar. 08, 2021 11:38 PM ET, SeekingAlpha
seekingalpha.com
Polkadot: Can DOT 10x in 2021?? DEEP DIVE!! (Video)
SOURCE : COIN BUREAU, Jan 12, 2021, YouTube
www.youtube.com
GBP JPY - imbalance awaitsHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Once price hits the imbalance an update will be provided and the re-analysed zone will be subject to short.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Previous analysis updates are below:
155 Price target
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Red = 4 Days
Yellow = 16 Hours
Orange = Daily
Dark Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Monthly imbalances:
Price has rejected the previous all time low of GBP JPY. It is important to note here as to why this area on the low is so significant.
This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons;
1. - Price is clearly making lower highs
2. - The monthly wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance - with clear evidence of a engineered liquidity wick rejection.
Weekly Imbalances
The reason for buying in at this level is simply due to the imbalance being filled on the weekly at 140.5-70, this zone was the top of a trading range where patience is required here for a Fibonacci retracement back to 137 zone. Upon a rejection to 136.80+ a buy would be prominent.
Keeping the outlook in perspective is the key to buying on a higher timeframe, more aligns and there is less noise to worry about regarding reversals, trading ranges.
The reason behind the entry point here at 137.80
The monthly and weekly imbalances above the buy zone at 136.69 are geared for longs as the imbalance is yet again filled.
Daily Imbalances:
Now that 152 target has been reached - this is now in a weekly and daily imbalance where price will look to use the previous daily and weekly former imbalance to create a range for one final push into the next zone .
From here price will be monitored watching the all important weekly imbalance at the top of the structural move.
The daily imbalances in have been patient levels to signify buys. - Previous analysis has provided clear indicators as to why these are buying opportunities.
Price will fluctuate back to a low of 148, to regain liquidity measures and false breakout the sellers will be trapped with further imbalance buy power.
Profit taking
As mentioned in the previous analysis 150, 152, 154 are even numbers to take partial profits.
From this trade, profits have been taken leaving a small ending balance to follow through with smaller imbalances maintaining the open interest swaps.
Cross correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD
The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1. 40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase.
The 16 hour chart above shows some key levels marked by the Yellow line markings show the correlation between the asset prices using GBP as a positive and XAU as a negative. The correlation will vary between time frames, but in terms of the way the range works, this ignores noisy data on the lower time frames and highlights different imbalances which match up using the four day and weekly crossing of imbalances.
Current cross analysis
Here is the current analysis using the four day view and the monthly chart to see the rise of the Pound Sterling against the cross pairs as well as the correctional move for Gold.
Here is the multi-time frame analysis showing the eight hour imbalance currently being filled. The probability for this to continue moving toward the range top is clearly on the side of the move completion.
Fibonacci pathway
in which price is following smoothly since the low with a great test of the 50% retracement as expected.
There pivot points are clear with the imbalances and align in the historical data where 'whipsaw' effects occur, this is showing a clear indication of an imbalance and fractal pattern creating the fresh level.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
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To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
EURJPY - Bearish SharkThe bearish shark pattern on the weekly chart has finally formed up(check out the link at the bottom), it took me months waiting for the formation and trading is all about patience.
Right now I'm waiting for the double top pattern to form on the 4hourly chart for an aggressive trade.
Could this be the trade of the year, I certainly hope so.
SPX - 4K!Firstly, congratulations to all long term buyers who hold SPX or a variation.
Previous Bullish analysis here
See the First 2021 forecast here
Monthly imbalances
While the 4K is a newly created all time high, the imbalance will now become a great area to exchange price action between the buyers and sellers.
Price has now created the interesting inefficient pricing leaving a long imbalance short effect, this will require patience while the sequence is completed for the Selling imbalance to take place.
The Weekly imbalance as shown on the current chart represents a new imbalance where price will look to revert to as an area of discounted buying.
Where are we with the Inflation ETF - RINF VS SPX?
An update below shows the positive correlation still maintaining structure.
Note- The Fibonacci sequence here shows the RINF - but the completion sequence aligns with 4,200+ zone.
EEM vs SPX update
What does the emerging markets show us?
Well the imbalances are within the same as the US market, but the economic recovery in terms of imbalance price driving in the EEM - shows that whilst fundamentally there is more volatility . The activeness of these markets provides a telling Fibonacci extension target is not to dissimilar along with the SPX.
Beware of XAU, XAG - currently lagging behind upon a large correctional imbalance move as inflation remains low, plus the imbalance zone not ready yet for action to be taken.
XAU vs SPX
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
LINK USD - Trade updateHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
See the previous Link here for the original analysis:
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Monthly imbalances:
The amount of data here is not a huge amount but the Fibonacci sequence has already completed a extension pattern on a monthly timeframe and provided imbalances which helps distinguish zones of probabilities where price can offer sell positions and respective buy positions.
1. The $36 high to $24 is a huge imbalance at the current moment but when aligning the price position creating an all time high. Price will reject here due to the newly created zone, where the imbalance of sellers will take over and created a lower correctional zone in a previous monthly imbalance or weekly. .
From a Fibonacci viewpoint.
The monthly zone creation at $20.00 provided the first opportunity for a correctional move down to the weekly imbalance fill between $8.95 to $4.5 dollars, however, using the Fibonacci tool - the imbalance fill is at the top of the zone where correctional moves have used the pivot reference of 61.8% as the optimal zone for probabilities for positional buying.
Here, the imbalance has been filled with the monthly July 2020 imbalance filled with a net close out from the sellers, signifying to buyers - the price ladder is now inefficient with sellers and buyers can take over.
Weekly Imbalances
The weekly imbalances have been previously tested, where the weekly imbalance candle provided a "breather" upon the bullish impulse move.
Price created a fractal point offering buyers a discounted opportunity to create a base zone.
Price has re-tested this imbalance and filled the liquidity wick.
The latest re-test has successfully filled in the imbalance at $23.7XX where price has rejected again and showed a highly favoured probability to become bullish further.
Daily imbalances
The new daily imbalances are in place offering a strong opportunity for price to show an opportunity to add a position.
The latest daily imbalance has been rejected by the sellers and now in control with the buyers.
The daily trendline pattern 'X' offers a cross opportunity to add a position upon a breakout of the trend, however, the real addition zone here is once $29.3 is successfully filled.
The cross analysis between relevant Crypto coins:
Key:
Red = XTZ USD
Orange = ETH USD Ethereum
Purple = OMG USD OMG Network
Using the comparison of what assets move in sync with this, it is clear that Etherium, OMG and Tezos have clear correlation with Chainlink within 0.9+ positive correlation.
Other comparable assets are EOS which is noticeably picking up traction towards creating a new imbalance.
The defined zones can be outlined in separate screens for defined imbalances - this is just to show the correlative aspect of where price is driving towards - i.e a monthly imbalance zone re-test.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
USD JPY - Rollercoaster updateOriginal idea is here; or a full breakdown.
Quick analysis to understand why this trade was taken and how it was analysed.
Monthly imbalances for USD JPY
These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 100.00 to be a structural level for the USD.
The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 100-102.
Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a higher low, informing that the buyers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone.
Daily Fibonacci
Currently price is heading to -0.272, before an opportunity for the trend in most scenarios to take a breather, where price will look towards the 8hour imbalance zone. Price has become bullish with a mounting risk of the VIX and the safe haven of both the USD and JPY.
The technical aspect here is price will need to engineer a long movement so when coming to a pivotal point on the Fibonacci extension target, price will react here, allowing discounted buy opportunities.
Weekly structure forming of the monthly imbalance
Entries:
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
