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Colombia slowly but surely on the road to hyperinflationThe inherent weaknesses produced by the pandemic in Latin America have produced the propitious scenario for a new hyperinflation to take place in the region, in this case in Colombia. This nation that around its history and its abundance of natural resources has been subjected to the old history of the Dutch disease. in such a way that its industrial and technological development sectors have always been depressed. which logically implies that there is a brain drain and a growing commercial imbalance with respect to the United States and now China. The rulers who are nothing more than a kleptotractic class, who since the beginning of the nation has been bolted to power, have never offered a structural change, also because the legal and structural incentives of the economy prevent political and social change, Consequently, the economic deterioration has been associated with an internal enemy during the more than 50 years of civil conflict and lately the blame has been placed on the immigration of Venezuelans and on Venezuela itself (external enemy). All these representations already mentioned have implied for the nation a walking on stakes, which cannot produce more than a process of hyperinflation in the medium term. It should be noted that the country's international gold reserves have been depressed by 60% during the pandemic and that the state also assumed new loans that increased the external debt with respect to GDP from 49.5% in 2019 to 54.8% according to the latest report, which implies that in less than 18 months it has increased by a factor of 10.71%. This aforementioned scenario, logically implies that there are some accused systemic risks within the Colombian economy. It is worth mentioning that the hydrocarbon exploitation and tourism sectors have been depressed for almost a year due to the collapses in the price of crude oil and a significant decrease in tourism due to the pandemic, since these are the most fluid sources of international foreign exchange for the country. Colombia must take a more serious stance in order to get out of this quagmire, it is not useful for foreign investment or for investor confidence that every two by three they are reformulating trade rules and bureaucracy, the Colombian people will end up going through the gillotine to their rulers sooner or later when there is a depression in the cost of living and a significant decrease in purchasing power as projected in this analysis. I will finish by explaining the technical part, what we observe in a projection in an equidistant channel; In it, we observe 3 elements, a temporary one that is based on tracing the most significant points of change in the trend or strong movements, in order to postulate a temporary projection of when the next inflationary peak will occur, this is close to the end of 2024, but is can produce sooner. On the other hand, the price is in the upper part of the channel, the only way to reverse this scenario is for the price to correct strongly and touch the lower part of the channel or break it, but it seems that this will not happen. rather it seems that it will look for the technical level of the 3.61 of fibonacci. in less than 3 years. Therefore, it is a bad time to make medium-term investments in the country. I will end by observing that the country can get out of this scenario, if there is a structural change in the long and medium term in the ways in which the country's economy produces and if the government decides to reduce externalities and make more territorial presence in the country. On the other hand, it is important to have simplified fiscal rules for internal and external investment, under conditions that promote competition between both types of investment, it could be a requirement that such investment must be by mixed law and promote the development and industrialization of the field. ; However, a change in the internal dynamics of drug trafficking and the use of public spending must be fostered. since public spending encourages social immobility, due to the large number of subsidies. To clarify whether the private sector is encouraged with mixed investment (this is understood as foreign and internal investment, the latter understood as state and private), macroeconomic solutions will be given in the medium term. This will imply a flow of capital and a decrease in structural unemployment, since official data say that there is much less unemployment than in reality, since informality is arbitrarily measured within this standard. español las debilidades inherentes producidas por la pandemia en latinoamerica, han producido el escenario propicio para que se produzca una nueva hiperinflacion en la region, en este caso en colombia. esta nacion que alrededor de su historia y por su abundancia de recursos naturales a estado sometida a la vieja historia de la enfermedad holandesa. de tal manera que sus sectores industriales y de desarrollo tecnologico siempre han estado deprimidos. lo que implica de un modo logico que exista una fuga de cerebros y un desbalance comercial creciente respecto a estados unidos y ahora china. los gobernantes que no son mas que una clase cleptotractica, que desde los inicios de la nacion ha estado atornillada al poder, nunca han ofrecido un cambio estructural, tambien debido a que los incentivos legales y estructurales de la economia impiden un cambio politico y social, en conseuencia, el deterioro economico ha estado asociado a un enemigo interno durante los masd de 50 años de conflicto civil y ultimamente se le achaca la culpa a la inmigracion de venezolanos y ala propia venezuela(enemigo externo). todas estas representaciones ya mencionadas, han implicado para la nacion un caminar sobre estacas, que no puede producir mas que un proceso de hiperinflacion a medio plazo. cabe recalcar que las reservas de oro internacionales del pais se han deprimido en un 60% durante la pandemia y que ademas el estado asumio nuevos prestamos que incrementaron la deuda externa con respecto al pib del 49.5% en 2019 a 54.8% segun el ultimo reporte, lo que implica que en menos de 18 meses se ha aumentado en un factor del 10.71%. este escenario mencionado anteriormente, implica de un modo logico que exista unos riesgos sistemicos acusados, en el seno de la economia colombiana. cabe mencionar que los sectores de la explotacion de hidrocarburos y turismo se han deprimido por casi un año debido a los desplomes en el precio del crudo y una disminucion significativa del turismo debido a la pandemia, pues estas son las fuentes mas fluidas de divisas internacionales para el pais. colombia debe asumir una postura mas seria para poder salir de este atolladero, no sirve para la inversion extrajera ni para la confianza del inversor que cada dos por tres esten reformulando las reglas comerciales y la burocracia, el pueblo colombiano terminara pasando por la gillotina a sus gobernantes tarde o temprano cuando se produzca una depresion del costo de vida y una disminucion significativa del poder adquisitivo como la proyectada en este analisis. terminare explicando la parte tecnica, lo que observamos en una proyeccion en un canal equidistante; en la observamos 3 elementos uno temporal que se basa en trazar los puntos mas significativos de cambio de la tendencia o movimientos fuertes, para asi postular una proyeccion temporal de cuando se dara el siguiente pico inflacionario, este esta cerca de finales del 2024, pero se puede producir antes. por otra parte, el precio se encuentra en la parte superior del canal, el unico modo de revertir este escenario es que el precio corrija con fuerza y toque la parte mas inferior del canal o lo rompa, pero parece que no va ocurrir esto. mas bien parece que buscara el nivel tecnico del 3.61 de fibonacci. en menos de 3 años. por lo cual es mal momento para realizar inversiones a medio plazo en el pais. terminare por observar que el pais puede salir de este escenario, si existe un cambio estructural a largo y medio plazo en los modos en que la economia del pais produce y si el gobierno decide reducir las externalidades y hacer mas presencia territorial en el pais. por otra parte, es importante tener unas reglas fiscales simplificadas para la inversion interna y externa, en condiciones que propicien una competencia entre ambos tipos de inversion, podria ser un requisito que dicha inversion deba ser por ley mixta y propiciar el desarrollo e industrializacion del campo; sin embargo, debe propiciarse un cambio en las dinamicas internas sobre el narcotrafico y el uso del gasto publico. pues el gasto publico propicia una inmovilidad social, debido a la gran cantidad de subsidios. para aclarar si se incentiva el sector privado con inversion mixta(esto entendido como inversion extrajera y interna esta ultima entendida como estatal y privada), las soluciones macroeconomicas se daran en el medio plazo. lo que implicara un flujo e capitales y disminucion del desempleo estructural, puesto que los datos oficiales dicen que existe un desempleo mucho menor que el que en realidad existe, ya que se mide arbitrariamente la informalidad dentro de este estandar.
Long
by TrumpMakeBitcoinGreatAgain
7
ATOM/USDTAtom shows more quickness then other shitcoins but trend still looking in to the hell. So we got 2 scenarios: upside and downside ( it always been lol) case of upside depends on the low of 11.5 so bulls need to save that low to prevent structure breakdown then we may see upside case of hell which looks mmore real to me: bears will ruined the level then MM going to take all that liquiduty( blue lines) he made while we grew and the character of trend makes me to look more at hell scenario, common this lows is too obvious. ISNT? but one legit thing in hell scenario is corrections around $8-$10 we could see and I could long because the healthy assets doesnt fall in couple bars, you know. MM playing with ATOM like a mf so I want to see good bounces.
by zhomiru
CSPR died in January 2021, like RchainHyperinflation during bear market - same marketcap as we had in 20c in August 2021 The team has bad image - team scolding people in Telegram (already deleted), I have screenshot in case people say I am lying Not listed on any major exchange since listing - hyped up Binance, never came Still no use case Slow chain, slow finality - eth2 coming so completely useless Same team as RChain was also Casper fork - utterly failed There is heavy selling pressure from validator - in entire bull market it did 10% up maybe then full retrace. I saw it going up by 10-30% many times during autumn 2021, all to retrace. Casperpad was also a scam - but good enough for final double top
Short
by Heartskull
3
New BTC OverlayThe best I can tell, BTC is trading in line with garbage stocks like PTON. Obvious short squeeze the last couple of days. So I lost money trying to short BITO over the weekend and made it back by shorting PTON yesterday, lol. In any case, probably done playing with BTC for a while, I'll stick to shorting garbage that I'm more familiar with. The way to play BTC is like any garbage stock, short the pumps then flip. Maybe hold just a few put contracts in case it tanks, but don't get greedy. CPI release tomorrow, so that can tank the market, but I think the numbers will be better than expected this time. No positions, all cash for CPI.
CME:BTC1!
by hungry_hippo
5
BTC PatternDrops $10k every Fed meeting lol. So probably breaks below $20k over the weekend but rebounds back and drifts sideways until the next Fed meeting. Idiots were told to wait until after the Fed to buy so a bunch of them did. Didn't bother to read what Powell said, .5 or .75 in July. The time to buy this garbage is when the Fed stops raising rates. The first meeting where Powell says no increase next meeting this will probably double from wherever it happens to be. Now that could be $10k or $5k, doesn't really matter. Stop looking at price levels and just base timing on the Fed.
CME:BTC1!
by hungry_hippo
10
$WIN - The shape of PA indicates the bottom is either in or nearI've marked this move as done, but that is one of two counts. I usually like to see 3 touches on the trend line of 5th ending diagonal. We are in 5 of 5 of C at this point and I'm very excited about this coin's bounce. I might dump a bit into this long term play. If we zoom out a bit, on the daily, we can see a lot of divergences on many oscillators as well as volume. There is also some convergence on the left side of the chart aligned with the box I'm going to long from: Safe trades to everyone.
Long
by FlokiCrypto
6
Blocknet is -99% down from ATH so Be aware from Shit Coins#BLOCK/USDT $Blocknet current price is around $0.58 Recently made low of $0.47. So basically it's almost 99.22% down from All time high of $60.027. Practically I don't prefer in suggesting these type of Scam/shit coins. Never choose to go with these kind of Coin, can harm and eat our hard earned money. Lots of traders and Influencers around the globe just for the sake of some bucks, keep suggesting these kind of Coin with may hit 50x , 100x , 1000x in near future. And suggest to hold for 2-3 years for Huge profit. In the case of $Blocknet:- Who invested in December $2017, price was around $60 i.e. ATH & And after 3 year $Blocknet price is at $0.58. Almost -99% down. Where is 100x …? So Guys never invest blindly in any coins for getting Superrich overnight. At $60 team & insider Sold $1M worth of $Block Tokens. Now Value of $1M = ~$8000 Lesson for today:- Choose your Influencer wisely. And do your own research before investing. And never enter with full fund in a entry.
BEducation
by CryptoPatel
4
ULTIMATE MACD GUIDE - ENTRY'S AND EXITS 📚The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Oscillator , otherwise known as MACD, is one of the most powerful and dynamic indicators, if you can learn to use it properly. It is easily one of my personal favorite indicators, and one that I currently use when scalping and day trading. Now before we get into how the MACD works on a technical level, let’s first go over how the MACD helps us fundamentally. We can break it’s benefits down into 4 categories - in which it allows us to measure and predict the following: The strength of a pattern The momentum of a movement The direction of a movement The duration of a movement Let’s breakdown each of those -The Strength Of A Pattern- Have you ever seen price approach the outer limits of a wedge, channel, or support / resistance and wondered, cluelessly whether or not it would actually break through or end up rejecting? The MACD allows us to predict the pressure behind a certain sentiment, and therefore predict the odds of that pattern completing successfully. (possible example) -The Momentum Of A Movement- When trading, especially day trading, it is important to have almost impeccable timing for entries and exits. The MACD allows us to see and predict current and future momentum. This is powerful, as it allows us to enter a long before the rest of the market has gone long (essentially entering a long before the market pumps.) This increases our profit/loss ratio - therefore decreasing risk and allowing for more sturdy stop losses. -The Direction Of A Movement- This one is quite obvious when looking at the MACD, but without the indicator, it can sometimes be quite difficult to even see which way the market is trending (periods of high consolidation for instance) By utilizing the MACD on multiple time frames, we can have a glimpse of where the market is headed, even if it is unknown on the smaller time frames. (the opposite is also true, when the higher time frames are in periods of high consolidation, we can take a look at the lower time frames to get an idea of where it is heading) -The Duration Of A Movement- As mentioned previously, it is extremely important as a day trader to have very accurate entries and exits. Ironically, one of the most difficult things for a novice trader to predict is an accurate exit. if you exit too early, you miss out on valuable profits and further decrease your profit to loss ratio. Yet, if you exit too late, you also lose valuable profits and decrease your P&L ratio. How do you find that sweet spot, to maximize your profits? The MACD allows us to use past history to predict the duration of the current trend, and exit when it is most necessary. -How To Apply The MACD And Gain Its Benefits- Now that we have gone over exactly what the MACD offers, it is time to learn how to use it. the MACD consists of 4 components: The signal line (slow line) The “MACD” line (fast line) The baseline The histogram (a visual, often color coded representation of both lines interacting) These four components interact with each other in a very dynamic way, and allows for very versatile, wave-like movement (one of the only of its kind.) This is incredibly useful, as the market itself works in a very similar wave-like pattern of thrusts and rest, thrusts and rest and so on. there aren’t many other indicators (if any) that display the markets ebb and flow quite like the MACD. Let's break down what each aspect does. -The Signal Line- The signal line or ‘slow line’ is calculated based on the 26-period ema. This is the standard numerical value for the MACD, but can typically be adjusted in it’s settings to your preference. The signal line is the basis for whether a trend is overbought/ oversold and whether the momentum is bullish/ bearish. -The MACD Line (fast line)- The MACD line is calculated based on the 12-period ema. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, this is considered the very beginning of a bullish movement. Why is this the case? Well, if the average price of the past 12 candles is moving higher than the average price of the past 26 candles, we can assume that in the short term, the momentum is bullish. The opposite is also true. when the MACD line is below the signal line, this is the very beginning of a bearish movement. -The Baseline- The baseline is considered the very center of the MACD indicator. It is the line where the red and green bars of the histogram meet and where the scale on the right hand side reads zero. The purpose of the baseline is to further indicate the distance between the signal and MACD line. the higher above the baseline the MACD and signal line go, the further the distance is between the two (meaning the 12-period ema is much higher than the 26-period ema.) This is useful in showing how overbought or oversold the equity is in that particular time frame. The opposite is also true. the lower below the baseline these lines move, the further apart they are. However, in this case, the 12-ema is much lower than the 26-period ema. This indicates that the price may be oversold. -The Histogram- The histogram is the bread and butter of this entire indicator. As you become more familiar, the signal and MACD line will be very helpful in seeing the nuances of a movement and the market as a whole. As a beginner though, the histogram is your best friend. it takes all of the information mentioned previously, and compacts neatly into a color coded, numerical value system. Each bar of the histogram corresponds to the above candle. This is useful as it allows us to predict future histogram bars, and where the MACD may be headed in the future. Whenever the MACD line crosses above the signal, the histogram turns green. whenever the MACD line crosses below the signal, the histogram turns red. As the MACD approaches the signal line, the histogram weakens, and the bars grow smaller and smaller - closer and closer to the baseline. However, as the MACD line separates from the signal, the histogram bars grow larger and larger, further from the baseline. -The Culmination- All of this information can be combined, to assess the MACD on multiple time frames and make an educated decision on market direction. A trading plan using the MACD could look something like this (using SPY): -Before the market opens, check hourly MACD. wait until the hourly looks oversold, and the histogram appears to have peaked. (once the newest histogram bar is shorter than the previous, this marks the peak) -Once peaked, this indicates that momentum for the next several hours should return to the baseline (spy is oversold) -Now, you could go to lower time frames such as the 5 and 15 minute, keeping in mind that the hourly is oversold, so buying pressure should be at its heaviest now. -Use the MACD on the lower time frames to judge the smaller thrust and rest periods, buy at the rests and sell at the thrusts. Don't even get me started on how I view a chart as a collection of emotions, and how I believe the MACD displays these emotions better than any other indicator can (we'll save that for a separate post.) The MACD and its strategies/ nuances could be talked about for hours, but I hope this helped. I'll likely be doing another post, outlining more concrete examples of how to use it, so stay tuned!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by SJ_CAP
6
How To Succeed In Your TradingFocus on one single trading strategy One thing that many people try and do is switch between strategies constantly. This is setting you up for failure, and if the concept of probabilities is truly understood, you will comprehend the reasons why a single strategy will work. Any strategy is not going to have a 100% win rate, so first you should attempt at getting 50% of your trades right. After that mastering a 2:1 Reward to risk ratio is what will make you profitable. Trying to juggle many strategies will have you working tirelessly, but not moving forward in any particular one. Less trading, more education Many people have the conception that spending countless hours in front of the screen looking for potential set ups is how it should be, however that is completely wrong in my eyes. I spend minimal time now looking at charts and set ups, I highlight key levels I want to look at, along with alerts, and simply wait for the market to head there. Time spent looking at charts should be simply for education and mastering your strategy through back testing or simply understanding previous data. Approach the market from a neutral position Anyone that knows me knows how big I am on trading psychology and how I believe it is the most important aspect of trading. Emotions in trading can be one of your greatest enemies as it can lead you to failure even after your success. There are scenarios where you can take trades and be in positive which will lead you to feel over confident, happy, and those will ultimately will lead to irrational decisions if you let them. Those emotions will make you believe you are better than the markets, or that you can outsmart them, ultimately leading your successful trade to turn into a failure. The same can happen when you feel the opposite and lack confidence to enter another trade due to a loss, or think have feelings of doubt. This is why the market needs to be approached by a completely neutral position. Once you understand that for every person on one side of a trade, there is someone on the opposite side, you will begin to understand that the market itself is just a whole bunch of neutral information moving in nobody’s favour. Write your goals Affirmations are great and something that has helped me in every aspect of my life and not just trading. It is very important to write down your goals in order to manifest them into reality. All ideas first begin in the mind, and then come into the physical. Your goals need to be solidified, definite, and written down in order for your mind and yourself to know exactly what you are going after. Every single day, you need to read your goals aloud, envision them in your mind with every bit of detail possible in order to bring them into the physical. In order to achieve a goal you need to arrive at the destination first in your mind. Relax There is no need to rush a single thing in your trading journey, and believe me take it from my experience, every time I tried to, I failed. People attend university for years before going out into a career which then takes many years before mastering it, yet people want to master trading in a year. Patience is required in all aspects of trading, whether it’s on the charts themselves, or with your strategy, or with your learning curve. It all requires patience. If you are going after trading as a serious life career which you aim to remain in, then relaxing and taking your time is the first step. Nothing great comes from rushing it, especially the markets. Know how to handle your trades Based on your strategy and the concept of probability there are a number of things needed in order to appropriately handle your trades. Firstly, don’t touch your stop loss. I cant say this enough, but stop losses are determined as the final barrier before the trade is invalid, and they are determine before entering the trade. If you find yourself moving your stop, ask yourself why. You will find out mostly its out of fear of losing your money, which is one of the 4 fears of trading. Accept your loss and let the trade stop out, you had it there for a reason. Also, don’t leave trades behind out of fear. If you have a strategy that you have confidently developed, you should understand that the overall should be a greater number of winners than losers, and you should not leave trades behind out of fear, because they can be the ones that perform the best and make up for the losers. Another thing to have in place is an appropriate strategy for exiting your trades. Many people have trades that are in profit, however due to the lack of knowledge on how to exit their trades, they still end up not profitable. You need to have a system on how to exit your trades appropriately and at what levels. Always remember, the profit running on a trade is not yours until its closed. Risk management Yes, I know you have heard it and read it a thousand times already, but you have no idea how important risk management is until the day you master it and recognise it was the single greatest thing holding you back from success. People can have amazing strategies, the best reward to risk ratios, but with the inappropriate risk management trust me it means absolutely nothing. I have seen people overleverage on a trade simply because it “looked too good” compared to other trades, only for it to be the worst of the bunch. I have seen people lose tremendous amounts of money and one thing I can promise you is not a single one of these people lost 100 trades in a row at 1% a trade. Every single one of them lost their entire accounts due to ONE trade that they married. Risk management should be one of your main areas of focus, because believe me if you have mastered it, even with an average strategy you are doing much better than someone with an exceptional strategy with no adequate risk management. Keep track of your performance The only way to improve in any aspect of life is to first recognise what needs change and then work on it. It is very important to actually understand your positives and negatives and have them all tracked. A journal is one of the first steps in order to look in the mirror. Being completely honest is the only way a journal will work, and lying is only lying to yourself. If you are after serious improvement you need to appropriately identify all your flaws in order to better them. You should never feel down or behind, remember trading the markets is one of the biggest psychological challenges one can face, and that is exactly why not everyone is suited for them. Instead see it as a challenge to better yourself and achieve the perfection and discipline you have always desired on and off the charts. Trading the markets will teach you lessons that you will carry with you throughout your entire life and not just on the trading floor.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by opes_trading_group
331
My Shiba Inu trading & investment planHello everyone, today I want to show you my trading & investment plan on Shiba Inu. Shiba Inu is in everyones mouth right now. We all know that Shiba Inu is considered as a shitcoin. However Shiba Inu looks amazing from a technical view. What I noticed is, that we have finished our first Elliot Wave Cycle. We saw 5 textbook impulsive waves which are lead by a corrective wave A, now. I'm expecting an impact of wave A on the 38%-50% Fib of the overall bullish impulse. To get an idea of where the journey might go, I have marked you possible buy & sell entries on the chart. What I want to see is a reaction on the Fibs I have been marking, just to be sure about the technical reactions of the Shiba Token. My ultimate buy & hold point is on the bottom of wave C. This is no trading and investment advice. Jus my personal and technical view. RT
COINBASE:SHIBUSDShort
by RT_Trading_
5