Big Diamond Pattern Atop Carnival Cruise CorpBig Diamond Pattern Atop Carnival Cruise Corp
When forecasting you have to take a lot of information into consideration, you have to also find the needed information to make a forecast.
What we know in the short term, Carnival Corp CCL, average analyst stock price estimates post Q2 earnings - June 28 - was $60.50 and high estimate for 2016 of $80. Brexit aftermath has slowed stock momentum and was in an industry that was hardest hit other than global banks. If Carnival does infact beat estimates, which it has solidly for nearly two years straight, we could be in a big surprise to the upside.
Long term, estimates for all corporate earnings are extremely overpriced. 2017 is expected to price nearly a 20% rise in earnings for the S&P 500. With the Federal Reserve and rating agencies ready to revise these numbers early next year, along with analyst revisions, this could be a disaster for US stocks in 2017.
Diamond Pattern
We can't always assume which direction the diamond pattern will follow, but we do know that massive volatility will shoot out of the pattern once a diamond pattern is completed. Studies have shown Diamond Patterns are the best patterns to forecast future volatility. Diamond Patterns shape have also proven to slightly improve long term forecast, but not always short term forecast. Short term direction after the patterns has completed, may not always be the ultimate direction the pattern wants to go. Often Diamonds shoot out fast head fakes in the short term, while the direction of the diamond has been pointing to a direction opposite of the head fake. So traders need to take into consideration short term vs long term, when studying the diamonds direction (red arrows on chart point to downward momentum).
