EURCHF in the first half of 2024 Long Resault: 569 pips Profit✅A glimpse of the USDCHF in the first half of 2024
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TATA Motors DVRGives higher weekly closes on the chart.
TATA motors DVR is a stock that has been showing signs of a breakout. The stock has been in an uptrend for the past few months, and it has recently broken out above a key resistance level. This is a bullish signal, and it suggests that the stock is likely to continue to rise in the near future.
The whole Automobile sector is making highs we need to keep a few scripts in radars and focus on taking position carefully with Stop loss on the chart.
Happy trading.
BTC USD - buying on the below structure levelsNote* Before commenting, understand this analysis was private released Nov28th - so the anticipated analysis has played out.
Revert to the link in the analysis to see the privatised idea.
Hello Traders and Analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances at the desired levels .
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish with a short phase in focus at present.
You must be aware of my analysis's - I do not short term trade, and hold positions for periods longer term, this means when trading positions have wider stop losses and risk reward setups for multiple shorter term trades to be taken while in the main position.
The idea here is to have overall trades open and to take other positions in between.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Green = 8 Hour, 16hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence.
Here is the before identified zone of interest which was analysed using the Daily chart
The clear 50% Fibonacci and combination of the daily zone is clear for two reasons;
I. Using the consolidative order block to the left of the structure - an opportunity to test here is considered a high probability.
II. The main order zone of interest is $46,000 on the weekly, but on a shorter term corrective structure, the 50% is a testable zone
Monthly
The current imbalances are now forming on the Zero Fibonacci structural path of the market.
At the present time, price has made lower highs on the previous market top. So in scenario 1; a new higher low wick will form.
Scenario 2: A structural break will retest a monthly zone, exhaust and liquidate buyers, then change of hands will occur for the buyers who will look to sweep up on a discounted price factor.
Weekly updated chart using Fibonacci
The zone speaks for itself where price is now testing the imbalance.
Here is the before identified zone of interest which was analysed using the Daily chart
The clear 50% Fibonacci and combination of the daily zone is clear for two reasons;
I. Using the consolidative order block to the left of the structure - an opportunity to test here is considered a high probability.
II. The main order zone of interest is $46,000 on the weekly, but on a shorter term corrective structure, the 50% is a testable zone.
t.me
Why is this level so important for a daily sell off?
Well to put it simply - the imbalance is netted off here with the previous wick high matching a zone of a wick low.
The main point or zone of interest is the most important to observe as the imbalance upon the weekly has formed and will now be retested.
Upon a retest, it is clear to look for Daily lows and also the weekly wick and candlestick low - also combine with a four day chart - this will offer a highly anticipated zone where price will observe a low parity or a lower high.
Upon the subsequent formation - buying upon a daily confirmation or anticipated psychological level will be imperative.
On the Daily
a profit taking zone offers a low towards the breakout of the formation between the previous analysis upon the confirmation and the daily imbalance from that zone.
This is also a -0.618% Fibonacci inverse extension zone.
Daily Chart Update:
Price has now tested successfully, now be patient and await the true wick to see where the week closes and more importantly what occurs on a Sunday - price makes an impulse move on this day, looking back at historic movements.
Here is the outcome from purchasing on the confirmation from the imbalance at hand.
Here is the Bitcoin market imbalances cap - monthly chart
Weekly Bitcoin Market Cap
Notice the equal lows which have formed the famous double bottom formation.
The weekly trendline whilst steep has now seen a sell off, but now can establish a take back being the dominant coin.
Daily Market Cap with BTC price
Notice the daily imbalance on the market cap and the price chart equate to the same position opportunity.
BTC - candle sticks
ETH - purple
BNB - Rose pink
XRP - Orange
ADA - Green
Tracking the major coins as of 6th October 2021
BTC - 44.69%
ETH - 18.51%
BNB - 3.19%
ADA - 3.11%
USDT - 2.95*
XRP - 2.22%
* based on a fictional USD stable coin derived from Fiat.
Source:
coinmarketcap.com
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Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
GBP AUD - Correction completed? Longs addedHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Note:
To see more information - review the linked ideas for more crypto and through the analysis links which provide explanation's for further resources.
Also to add - regarding the simplified method of the Shib Burning model, a full detailed model will be available - please contact me for further information.**
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Red = 4 Days
Yellow = 16 Hours
Orange = Daily
Dark Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Review the full analysis below;
or below
Original analysis process.
Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view.
1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75
we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows.
From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs.
A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie.
2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development.
We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps.
Moving to now...
Monthly imbalances:
Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above.
From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards.
Weekly Inverse Fibonacci
1. this shows the inverse Fibonacci upon the previous imbalance whereby price has created a pivot structure on the weekly chart at 1.9158, price created a low formation to create a reversion of "0" at the base of 1.85, GBP AUD is very good at correcting to 61.8 or 70.5% using Fibonacci, personally the structure of this pair tends to ignore the 50% pivot structure as the pair is open to larger engulfing moves. .
-0.618% Pivot imbalance reversal
Overall this extension target was important to await the initial move, creating the High and low to allow the corrective imbalance to imbalance structure to navigate itself. Those who can form a basis understanding of the imbalance zone at will be able to place shorter term but maintain long opportunities as the overall monthly shows a buying imbalance probability in higher favour than sellers.
Monthly higher highs
The two highlights on this chart has been purposely left to show the 0.236 and 0.382 retracement zones where highly probable bullish moves will occur.
Looking left the white eclipse which is circling the bearish candle, note how the second highlight retraces perfectly to the body of the wick, closes out and nets - this is our net imbalance whereby price has closed out in favour of the bullish manoeuvre which will now show probability over >50% in favour of the bulls.
The second formation of this zone forming an imbalance is for two reasons which will be explained. Revert to the below chart to see why this 0.236 is important.
I. The imbalance candle has netted off and also in combination with higher low formation upon the monthly shows the buying opportunities to now test "0" and continue the trend to the up and right.
The netting is important here as the body of the bearish candle forming the imbalance at
II. The formation of the weekly and monthly inverse Fibonacci and Extension Fibonacci indicate a clear pivotal reactive zone where the inverse completion pattern is now overextended, and the monthly extension pattern is showing a corrective structure for a change of hands.
Daily Correctional Channel
The daily correctional channel in conjunction with the weekly shows the correctional pattern of the creation and formation of the higher lows and lower highs.
When plotting the trendlines upon the swing low of the formation "0" and the correctional pullback for the continued trend of selling over the short, medium term at 61.8% - 70.5%.
The channel lines are formed in line with top wick placed at "1" and now the channel will bounce within these zones probability.
Where the lowest low or completion has formed, the -0.618 has provided a change of hands upon a buying imbalance.
Now price looks to break the trend and resume longs at a discounted price.
The next step is to break the formation of the upper trend line, break and retests are a highly probable scenario where the zone will be testing the "0" and ultimately on a daily timeframe (once a high has formed) a retest of a pivot point be it -0.27 in this case).
Trades can be added here with confirmations for both buys and correctional sells for hedging.
AUD USD
Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD
Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason.
Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms.
AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance.
Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid.
The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength.
Inverse correction pattern completed upon the weekly, but will now look to test the monthly zone where the AUD has not retested the lower imbalance of 0.70 as yet. The weekly trendline if plotted will show a formation of lower highs but at the same time forming higher low pivots, so where price will come to an apex, we will have to await the confirmation of the next move.
The DXY is pivotal
DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again.
Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected.
Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame.
Where are now, currently using the weekly chart
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
AUD USD - Hold shorts in AugustHello Traders and Analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Previous analysis:
link here:
See the previous work
June analysis:
The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance.
The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week.
Monthly imbalances
Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00
This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons;
1. - Price is clearly making lower highs
2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers.
Weekly time frame Imbalances
The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price.
The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios;
1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation .
2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again.
Daily Fibonacci
The Daily Fibonacci provided a double top or a 50% retracement rejection. For the shorter term sellers adding a position here would suffice, but recommend placing a larger position on the 61.8% as mentioned.
The edge of the monthly imbalance, has key closes which come down to a daily level with fractal pivot points. Notice how price will revert to test the zone price has come from. But creating the formation of a lower high.
SPX vs AUDUSD
The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors.
DXY criteria:
DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again.
Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected.
Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame.
Correlation:
Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD
Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason.
Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms.
AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance.
Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid.
The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength.
Here is the graphical scale below:
Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP.
See the GBP AUD chart here for further updates.
Gold production as the Aussie is a commodity currency.
Gold discounted offering
See here for the imbalances on Gold . This can help adjust the situation upon the USD.
Why is gold falling? Well simply put volatile situations where the return of XAU maintains no yield, the Dollar however does Yield through interest rates.
Gold will look to fall to level of around $1500 before examining next where the price is to move next. However pay attention to the 1700* whereby price has a good wick where price can closed out and may have an alternate buy opportunity here.
4 hour view - potential bearish continuation?
Here we have a clear imbalance filled where price has touched the low and successfully rejecting as price closed out - confirming the imbalance.
Now price has continued to sell off - looking for a low of the Fibonacci '0'' to be tested. From here price will look to continue and break the zone at the low structural four hour zone.
Yes it has and here is the proof, revert back to June 29th chart and hit replay.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
What is position Trading ? What Is Position Trading?
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Position trading is a strategy where traders and investors aspire to capitalise on strong pricing trends through entering and remaining present in a market for an extensive term. A position trade is a commitment of both time and money, with the intention of realising a sizable gain from the sustained growth of an open position's value.
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📊 Advantages Of Position Trading 📊
━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The advantages of position trading include the following:
🔵 The negative factors have a minimum degree of influence – if a trader buys, for example, on the weekly chart, he won’t be shocked about the daily price fluctuations. The position trader feels less stressed compared to the day trader.
🔵 The ability to “squeeze out” the maximum of a trend – position traders do not have to regularly open and close positions, thereby losing on spreads.
🔵 High profits – position trading allows you to trade with high leverage, as the probability of a mistake is much smaller than in conventional trading.
Disadvantages Of Position Trading
The disadvantages of position trading include the following:
🔵 The need for a high deposit – Position trading with the minimum amount of funds is simply irrelevant. It is likely that the strong price fluctuations will lose everything.
🔵 Swap – The swap is a commission paid to the broker for the transfer of the trade to the next day. If the position is open for a long period, the swaps can accumulate a large amount.
🔵 Risk – The risk is much lower when compared to day-trading or swing trading, but if a mistake is made, it will likely be fatal. If a trader goes against the trend, he will lose not only his deposit, but also the time in which he could generate a profit – don’t forget, we are speaking about months.
GRANULES - Shark Pattern ProbabilityThere is a probability of shark pattern on Granule's daily chart, if unfolds, we could see quite a good move in the stock.
The said pattern is supported by the weekly chart positive price action.
And said probability is formed on a very good support that the stock has around 290- 300 levels.
The said probability would be negated below 300 levels.
Its a buy-on dip stock for me, please do your own research and trade at your own risk.
BTC weekly imbalance - new longsHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
See previous analysis here:
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view.
1. Zone 1:
The daily zone is where price will be looking at a test of the order block based on how the mark flows between imbalances to create the range. The current week has seen a sharp outflow of movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of $42,000. This redistribution of wealth is the transfer from impatient to patient buyers, liquidity to show bears opportunities to 'shake' Bitcoin wallets out to create a new engineered low.
2. Exactly the same development but making further lows to around $37,000 - $39,000. This zone will be a 'full retrace' upon a daily Fibonacci standpoint, however this is where the imbalance lies.
3. The true imbalance remains at $28,000 . - see BTC VS yields for this information.
Fibonacci rules are still in formation on the weekly chart:
US Treasury volatility - not to be ignored by Crypto:
Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence.
Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the indexes also which will impact the imbalances of Crypto currencies.
BTC vs ETH:
Notice the imbalance pattern?
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
CHK Multiple Divergence at Support CHK experiencing multiple divergences on both MAC-D and RSI at a great area of support for the stock. After a solid close on Monday, I am expecting a retest of previous swing highs.
[EMC2/BTC] LongBITTREX:EMC2BTC
EMC2 broke above 0.0001 Level and become Support.
EMC2 Slow down around 0.000165 - 0.000175 .
After reached all time high level at 0.0002 EMC2 seller come and push price back to support area.
Buyer keep pushing up and continue snap back from 0.00017 to support area again.
Third time pounce back from 0.00017 but squeezed, Show us Buyer standing by.
Slowly approaching support area and bottom of the Range but now buyer showing up.
We can see that both side showing strenght and we may have spike before it take off.
I'm waiting for the test at 0.000095, Mini support at 1H timeframe then I get in.
Main target :
Take profit on top of the range but we may get reaction from supply at 0.000014 area. I may remove apart of my position and move stop to zero. Then Let's see if price can reach top of the range.
Stop-loss :
I Will keep below the support area if we have spike.
I'll continue update my trade