The Bitcoin bottom could be months away :(Hey guys,
I don't think I've looked at the Bitcoin weekly chart and made a post about it. Well, it's pretty s**t.
If you'll look at the average weekly move, it is certainly more than just two red weeks, so I am expecting $5,000 still. I am waiting for a bearish opportunity to short. I am still uncertain as to whether it will come now. That is why at the moment, I am neutral.
Look back at the last bear market. We made it to oversold territory and stayed there for quite a bit. That line I have drawn at around $4,000 is the second highest bottom I am seeing for bitcoin (we will have to wait to hit there before I give my last bottom opp) . If you are holding alts, I would be getting ready to put on the brown pants. Alts are already at full retracement levels from their 2017 summer levels, so if bitcoin goes down like I think it is going to, it could get very, very ugly for alts. I'm talking 99%-99.9% falls from their peaks. I hope I am wrong, but this chart is EXTREMELY bearish. It tells me we have lower to go and that we will be there for a while.
The good news? It might be obvious when the bull market begins. Take a look at the RSI. When the weekly RSI hits overbought again, that could be our signal that the bear market is over. These are just my observations, I could be wrong.
On another note, I want to talk about economics and WHY the pattern in bitcoin looks so similar to the last situation. I suspect there could be a reason for this. I think the reason we have such extreme declines is because of the fundraising that occurs in ICOs. I think what happens is that they raise the most funds near the top of the bubble and then they are forced to sell very low. I wouldn't be surprised if they fail massively in speculating with their coins as well. Anyways, I want to state my general belief about all markets: movements happen for a reason . I don't think they are chaotic or random. It is hard to see the network effect of millions of people and their exchanges with each other, but fundamentally, I believe what Ray Dalio says about the economy and the markets is true: they form a machine. It is a VERY difficult machine to understand. Indeed, John von Neumann said in his Theory of Games and Economic Behavior book that is was a more complicated science than physics and is far more nascent. I just thought I would say this because for the most part TA is kind of hocus pocus - it works sometimes, but it doesn't help us truly UNDERSTAND markets. We need to see the whole picture to do that and TA is not the whole picture.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news(no pun intended). See this as the chance to take advantage of the biggest opportunity of your lifetime. I would be saving (hopefully earning too) as much money as I could to buy the cheap bitcoin. Remember, if Bitcoin becomes any kind of global reserve, you will only ever need 1. This will be the largest wealth redistribution ever. Young computer nerds with bad skin that were mining in early 2010s and didn't sell are going to become kings. The old elite (ahem Warren Buffett, Mr. I-don't-use-a-computer) who denied its existence will become the paupers (not really they still have skills that are invaluable - alternatively they will be dead because they are old).
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