EURGBP: Multiple Time Frame Analysis & Bearish Outlook 🇪🇺🇬🇧
Take a look how EURGBP reacted to a daily falling trend line
on a 4H time frame.
The market started to consolidate within a narrow range
and was stuck within for 2 trading days.
Today we see a strong bearish movement with a confirmed violation
of the support of the range.
It indicates the strength of the sellers.
We can anticipate a bearish movement lower, at least to 0.8562
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Pound
GJI made a big error that I had not seen till it picked up. I had placed the trade on UJ instead of GJ🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣. So now I'm watching this hit my TP and holding a possible loss.
DAILY
We heading back up to 193.50 and we just need to watch how it goes there.
4H
191.30 was the support we needed to keep going and here we currently are.
1H
191.20 is now the support we would believe to be what will push up the whole way up.
15Min
Just wait and watch
GBPUSD#GBPUSD
The short context is strongly pronounced, and due to the bank holidays, a liquidity outflow is evident. I believe the target will be reached within tomorrow's session. Ideally, we'll see liquidity taken above before continuing with the short order flow. Invalidation of the scenario can be considered if the price closes above 1.26500.
GJDAILY
Still expanding the current wedge we are in. Peaking at 193.50, which could either be our ceiling this week or our target before heading up to 193.60
4H
We are still in a small pullback flag, so the assumption stays that long term we are bullish but no commitment as of yet.
1H
We either going to bounce on 191.30 or we are going to get rejected at 192.00, for now just hold on and wait.
15Min
Opened with gapping downwards and now we are shooting upwards. So that shortfall will be recovered, for now stay watching. We'll wait for more developments.
GJWe did well on the trade. Now rinse and repeat.
DAILY
Broke down below 191.24 and closed there. We are currently forming a reversal candlestick, the next candlestick will give us direction.
4H
We are trying to reverse from the drop that happened. Bouncing off 190.80, and we still pushing up. We still in the middle of a bear channel reversal, so we are waiting for it to touch either 190.00 or 192.00 before we follow through on any trades.
1H
Waiting for the rejection at 191.24 or the break through of it so we get more direction of what we are doing.
15Min
We in a downtrend, so there is no intention to look for longs.
NB!!!!!!!!!
NFP FRIDAYS WE ONLY TRADE AFTER NFP TO AVOID DOING THE WRONG THINGS.
GJWe did well and got both our trades hit our exit point. Now rinse and repeat
DAILY
Broke through a resistance level and started creating new highs, plus our ascend was very impulsive and engulfed the bears in the market. Indicating we are pushing up and fighting bears now.
4H
191.24, the support price I will believe will give us further signs to look for longs in the market.
1H
Broke 191.24, retested 191.80 and kept going. Now it's slowed down at 192.20 so we stay patient and wait for the trade to come to us.
15Min
Next candle closes bearish engulfing and we will have some sort of bear run, just the length of the run we won't know exactly (remember we are in a full bull run, Daily structure)
NFP preview: Trading S&P or GBPUSD? NFP preview: Trading S&P or GBPUSD?
US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated on multiple occasions that a tight labor market acts as a deterrent to lowering interest rates. Which is why this month's NFP data release should be interesting.
This Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data is expected to show an addition of 200,000 new jobs. Since Feb 2023, data has consistently hovered between 300K and 150K. Many of these initial readings were subsequently revised downwards. Nevertheless, at the time, they significantly reduced the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts and, most recently, bolstered the dollar.
Traders anticipated ~6 rate cuts at the beginning of the year, but now will be content if the Fed reduces rates three times. However, even three rate cuts are dubious, given that most recent US data has exceeded expectations. This Monday, the ISM manufacturing index turned positive for the first time since October 2022.
If the NFP data surpasses expectations, GBP/USD could become an attractive trade. In the event of a soft NFP reading, attention could shift to the S&P, which would have a window to rebound before major banks commence reporting their latest earnings.
GBP/USD has remained trapped within a rectangular pattern for almost 100 days now, potentially indicating some strong boundaries to take note of for a range trade. The pair currently sits in the lower half of the range.
The jobs data on Friday could heavily influence Wall Street's sentiment, potentially determining whether the market remains overall bullish or requires even more of a corrective move. The 5200 level could be pivotal. It has previously acted as resistance and now functions as support. Even if a breakdown occurs below this level, support could be anticipated at the 5100 level or the 50-day SMA.
GJWEEKLY
Spinning tops at the current price (190.60), therefore we wait.
DAILY
190.00 looks to be the rejecting price, we are moving up.
4H
190.60 is a strong level we bounced of and had candlestick confirmation to the upside.
1H
191.30 is where we are anticipating
15min
190.40 was our resistance and turned into our support
GBP/USD: Bearish Sentiment Persists Ahead of Easter BreakClosed the trading session before the Easter weekend, the GBP/USD pair is seen hovering around 1.2617, encapsulated within a prevailing bearish sentiment. Similar to the EUR/USD, the pair remains within an accumulation range, suggesting a possible Triangle pattern for enthusiasts of technical analysis. Notably, it is trading below both the 21 and 200 Moving Averages on the H4 timeframe, underscoring the strength of the bearish trend.
Inflation in the US saw a marginal uptick to 2.5% annually in February, according to the PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge for tracking inflation. This modest increase from January's 2.4% met market expectations. Meanwhile, the index recorded a 0.3% rise from the previous month, slightly below the forecasted 0.4%. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, also experienced a 2.8% annual increase, aligning with predictions, with a monthly uptick of 0.3%. The upward revision of January's core PCE figures signals ongoing inflationary pressures, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates.
With upcoming employment data expected to play a crucial role in shaping future policy decisions, the timing and extent of rate adjustments remain uncertain.
Considering these factors, our analysis leans towards a bearish continuation for the GBP/USD pair, with a potential downside target identified at 1.25315.
GBP/USD Reversal Signals: Analyzing Potential Bearish MomentumAmidst early week volatility, GBP/USD initially tested 1.2650 before reversing course and closing positively on Monday. However, recent movement has brought the pair into a supply area, hinting at a possible reversal and continuation of its bearish trajectory.
In the upcoming economic calendar, focus shifts to the release of Durable Goods Orders for February in the US. Forecasts predict a 1.3% rise following January's 6.2% contraction. Should the data disappoint, it may weaken the USD in the immediate aftermath. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected increase could bolster the currency. Nonetheless, the impact of this data is likely to be short-lived.
Traders are closely monitoring these developments, with anticipation building for a potential bearish setup post the Durable Goods news.
GJLet's stay watching because where price currently is (190.90) is a level to watch. We close below here, have a rejection, confirmation candles then we know we are looking to stay going down.
1hr has already given us 1 confluence, we need 3 before we enter. It is forming a second one but has not confirmed it yet.
RISKY TRADE IDEA, enter the market with sells but closely monitoring the SL you place in because this move is not yet complete.
I will stay watching and waiting for the perfect entry.
GBP/JPY H4 | Falling to pullback supportGBP/JPY is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 190.501
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Stop Loss: 189.595
Why we like it:
There is an ovelap support that sits below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 191.892
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GJIf you had taken the trade idea early you would be stopped out.
Momentum is slow
191.57 we had a double rejection (Double Top)
Don't be bias and stick to a direction, stick to market movement and direction.
Wait for the close of the next hour and candlestick confirmation (Evening star, dojis, rejections) in order to determine whether we are stay up or faking before going down.
Pound H4 | Rising into resistanceThe Pound (GBP/USD) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 1.26729
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 1.27328
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 1.25817
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Overhead pressures for the PoundGBP/JPY looks set to extend its current downturn from the pivot point and drop towards an overlap support at 188.190.
Pivot: 191.149
Support: 188.190
Resistance: 193.381
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.