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GBP/USD Faces Pressure Amid Israel-Hamas Conflict and Economic..GBP/USD Faces Pressure Amid Israel-Hamas Conflict and Economic Challenges The Pound Sterling (GBP) experienced a downturn, dropping below 1.22 against the US Dollar (USD) as geopolitical tensions escalated due to the Israel-Hamas conflict. This development has contributed to a risk-averse market sentiment, impacting the GBP's performance. Additionally, the UK faces economic challenges, particularly in its manufacturing and construction sectors, as higher mortgage rates create uncertainty. Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on GBP: The GBP/USD pair saw a significant decline on Monday as the Israel-Hamas conflict heightened the risk-aversion theme in the market. This geopolitical tension, which began over the weekend, added pressure to the Pound Sterling. Investors are closely monitoring the situation as it unfolds, as it has implications for market sentiment and risk appetite. UK Economic Challenges Persist: Apart from the geopolitical concerns, the UK is grappling with economic challenges. The manufacturing and construction sectors are currently vulnerable due to higher mortgage rates, which have impacted demand and borrowing costs. As a result, UK businesses are cautious about raising funds, leading to reduced labor demand and overall economic output. The situation is expected to persist, with the Bank of England (BoE) committed to maintaining restrictive interest rates until inflation reaches its target of 2%. US Jobs Data and Fed Expectations: In contrast to the UK, the United States is experiencing a more robust economic outlook. The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, released on Friday, revealed the addition of 336,000 jobs in September, surpassing market estimates. This data reaffirms expectations for at least one more interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) before the year-end. The prospect of higher interest rates has boosted US Treasury bond yields, providing support to the USD. However, it's worth noting that wage growth remained moderate during the same month, alleviating some concerns about inflationary pressures. This development may allow the Fed to adopt a less hawkish stance, depending on upcoming economic data and events. Looking Ahead: Investors are closely monitoring key events this week, including the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and US consumer inflation figures. These releases will provide insights into the Fed's future policy decisions and influence the USD's trajectory, subsequently impacting the GBP/USD pair. Furthermore, expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain its current interest rates in November are likely to limit significant upside potential for the British Pound (GBP). As geopolitical tensions persist and economic challenges persist in the UK, the GBP/USD pair remains under scrutiny by traders and investors. Our preference Short positions below 1.23075 with targets at 1.21100 & 1.2005 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
12
GBP/USD Consolidates Gains Ahead of Key US NFP ReportGBP/USD Consolidates Gains Ahead of Key US NFP Report The GBP/USD pair is currently treading water in the Asian session, consolidating its recent robust recovery from the 1.2035 area, which marked its lowest level since March 16 earlier this week. With traders on the sidelines, the focus is firmly on the impending release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, a pivotal event that could significantly influence market sentiment and currency movements. NFP's Influence on Market Expectations The NFP report, widely watched by investors, carries significant weight in shaping expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future interest rate decisions. The outcome of this report is expected to impact the US Dollar (USD) and provide fresh direction to the GBP/USD pair. Forecasts suggest that the US economy likely added 170,000 jobs in September, a modest decline from the 187,000 reported in August. Simultaneously, the jobless rate is expected to dip from 3.8% to 3.7% for the reported month. A Stronger NFP Report's Implications A stronger NFP report, while indicating healthy job growth, may exert upward pressure on wages and inflation. This scenario could compel the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance and keep interest rates higher for an extended period. Such an outcome could provide renewed strength to the USD and potentially cap the GBP/USD pair's gains. Mixed Labor Market Data As traders brace for the NFP release, it has been a week marked by mixed labor market data. The monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for August showed higher-than-expected job openings, while private payroll numbers from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report fell short of market expectations. Additionally, Thursday's data revealed a slight increase in Weekly Jobless Claims compared to the previous week, albeit slightly below expectations. Overall, these figures align with expectations of robust economic growth in the US for the third quarter. Furthermore, several Fed officials have voiced support for at least one more 25 basis points rate hike by year-end. Divergent Fed-BoE Policy Expectations The prospects of further policy tightening by the Fed have kept US Treasury bond yields elevated and supported the USD. This has contributed to halting the corrective pullback in the USD this week, despite its strong performance year-to-date. In contrast, market expectations are leaning towards the Bank of England (BoE) leaving interest rates unchanged at its upcoming November meeting. This divergence in central bank policies further acts as a restraint on the GBP/USD pair's upside potential. Waiting for Confirmation Given the prevailing market dynamics and uncertainties, traders are exercising caution and waiting for strong follow-through buying before confirming that GBP/USD has established a near-term bottom. Such confirmation would set the stage for a potential extension of the recent robust recovery that has spanned the last two trading days. Conclusion The GBP/USD pair is consolidating its recent gains as traders await the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls report. This release carries substantial implications for both the USD and GBP, with the potential to influence market expectations regarding future monetary policy decisions. While the current market outlook is cautiously optimistic, the NFP's outcome will likely determine the short-term direction of the GBP/USD pair. Our preference Short positions below 1.23075 with targets at 1.2110 & 1.2005 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
21
GBPUSD H4 | Rise into resistance?GBP/USD could rise towards a pullback resistance and potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 1.21245 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 1.22000 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 1.20101 which is a swing-low support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
EURGBP H4 | Potential bearish reversalEUR/GBP is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 0.86744 which is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss is at 0.87020 which is a level that sits above the high wick of the pullback resistance level. Take profit is between 0.86450 and 0.86373 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
GBPUSD:05/10/2023:🔴More fall for Pound🔴(Important caption)Well, as you can see, the market is totally bearish and we expect weakness of the pound against the American dollar. I follow the price in 2 scenarios. The first scenario (which I follow): I expect that the supply zone can push the price lower at first to the liquidity pool, then to FVG and finally to sell-side liquidity. Second scenario: The previous High which is the High of the supply zone acts like a liquidity pool and the price moves higher to the bearish order block and then falls. (I mentioned the second scenario just because it would be a perfect high-probability setup for a short position if it happens.) 💡Wait for the update! 🗓05/10/2023 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
Short
by VahidTradingCR
1
GBP/USD Rebounds Slightly Amid Weaker Dollar,But Challenges LoomGBP/USD Rebounds Slightly Amid Weaker Dollar, But Challenges Loom The GBP/USD currency pair has shown modest gains, trading above the mid-1.2100s during the Asian session on Thursday. However, the pair's upward momentum remains relatively limited, as it grapples with a series of challenges and uncertainties. In this article, we'll explore the factors influencing the GBP/USD exchange rate and the hurdles it faces in its quest for sustained growth. Weaker US Dollar Boosts GBP/USD The recent rebound of the GBP/USD pair can be attributed, in part, to the softer US labor market data, which has weighed on the US Dollar (USD). Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that US private payrolls for September rose by only 89,000, a significant drop from the previous reading of 180,000 and falling short of the market expectation of 153,000. This figure marked the lowest level seen since January 2021, weakening the USD. Pound Sterling's Struggles While the GBP/USD pair has experienced a modest recovery, the British Pound Sterling (GBP) faces several headwinds. These challenges have limited the currency's ability to extend its gains. Weak Economic Data: Despite a slight improvement, the UK Services PMI remains below the critical 50.0 threshold, indicating a contracting economy. The UK economy is grappling with the aftermath of higher interest rates imposed by the Bank of England (BoE), rising oil prices, and supply chain disruptions stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Inflation Concerns: The UK, like many other countries, is contending with the specter of inflation. The BoE has been faced with the difficult task of managing rising prices while simultaneously fostering economic growth. The central bank's Governor, Andrew Bailey, remains confident in his commitment to bringing down inflation to 5% or below by the end of the year. Economic Slowdown: The UK economy is approaching a slowdown due to various factors, including fragile economic activities, potential inflation shocks, and weakening demand. These challenges have raised concerns about the nation's economic prospects in the near term. Conclusion The GBP/USD pair's recent rebound is underpinned by a weaker US Dollar following softer labor market data. However, the Pound Sterling faces a series of challenges that limit its ability to extend gains. Weak economic data, inflation concerns, and an impending economic slowdown pose significant hurdles for the UK's currency. Traders and investors will closely monitor developments in the UK's economic landscape, central bank policies, and global market dynamics for clues about the future direction of the GBP/USD exchange rate. In the midst of these challenges, the currency pair remains in a state of flux, requiring careful consideration and strategy for those engaging in forex trading. Our preference Short positions below 1.22050 with targets at 1.2005 & 1.1900 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
8
GBPUSD H4 | Approaching resistance?The Pound (GBPUSD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse from here to drop lower towards our take profit target. Entry: 1.22629 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level Stop Loss: 1.24457 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level Take Profit: 1.20371 Why we like it: There is a swing-low support level Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
GBP/USD Consolidates Near Multi-Month Low Amid Divergent...GBP/USD Consolidates Near Multi-Month Low Amid Divergent Central Bank Policies The GBP/USD currency pair finds itself trapped in a tight trading range, hovering near multi-month lows reached just recently. While the extremely oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart may deter bearish traders from piling on, a fundamental tug of war between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) keeps the pound-dollar pair in check. In this article, we'll delve into the key factors driving the GBP/USD consolidation and explore what the future may hold for this currency pair. Fed vs. BoE: A Divergent Policy Outlook One of the primary drivers behind the recent weakness in the GBP/USD exchange rate is the divergence in monetary policies between the two central banks. The Fed, facing persistent inflationary pressures and a robust economic recovery, has signaled its intention to continue tightening monetary policy. This stance has been instrumental in maintaining elevated US Treasury bond yields, bolstering the US Dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, and subsequently weighing down the pound. On the flip side, the BoE's unexpected decision to keep its policy rate unchanged in September has had a dampening effect on the British Pound. The central bank's cautious approach reflects concerns over the UK's economic prospects and sticky inflation. With UK inflation still significantly above its 2% target and recessionary risks looming, the BoE has hesitated to raise interest rates further. This hesitation, in turn, has acted as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. Brexit Uncertainties Linger Apart from monetary policy divergence, the shadow of Brexit continues to cast a long shadow over the British economy. The complexities of the UK's new trading relationship with the European Union and ongoing uncertainties surrounding the Northern Ireland Protocol have weighed on business sentiment and trade. These factors have contributed to the prolonged economic headwinds facing the UK. Economic Challenges for the UK The economic challenges facing the UK are further highlighted by dismal manufacturing and services data. After more than a year of contraction in the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI is predicted to remain below the 50.0 threshold for a second consecutive time. British producers have been cutting back on new orders and labor due to tepid demand, further undermining the prospects for economic recovery. Additionally, rising oil prices and ongoing supply chain disruptions have added to the woes, potentially pushing the UK economy further into a difficult position. As the GBP/USD pair hovers near multi-month lows, the market continues to reflect the divergent monetary policy outlooks of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The Fed's willingness to tighten policy amid inflation concerns has boosted the US Dollar, while the BoE's caution due to economic uncertainties has weighed on the British Pound. With Brexit uncertainties and economic challenges in the UK, the road to recovery remains uncertain for the pound-dollar pair. Traders and investors will closely watch central bank decisions and economic data releases for clues about the future direction of the GBP/USD exchange rate. Our preference Short positions below 1.22050 with targets at 1.2005 & 1.1900 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
13
The Pound: A Falling Star-- On the 30-minute chart, GBP/USD is trading in a downtrend. The pair has broken below its key support level at 1.2100, and is now targeting the 1.2000 level. -- On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD is also trading in a downtrend. The pair has broken below its key support level at 1.2200, and is now targeting the 1.2050 level. -- On the daily chart, GBP/USD is also trading in a downtrend. The pair has broken below its key support level at 1.2300, and is now targeting the 1.2000 level. Technical Analysis Tools and Guidelines -- Elliot Wave Theory: GBP/USD is currently in a correction. This suggests that the pair is likely to continue to decline in the near term. -- RSI: The RSI indicator is oversold on all timeframes, suggesting that GBP/USD is due for a bounce. However, the overall trend is bearish, so any bounce is likely to be short-lived. -- MACD: The MACD indicator is below the signal line on all timeframes, suggesting that the bearish momentum is strong. Conclusion The overall outlook for GBP/USD is bearish. The pair is trading in a downtrend on all timeframes, and the technical indicators suggest that the decline is likely to continue in the near term. However, the RSI indicator is oversold, so there is a possibility of a short-lived bounce in the near future. I hope this post is helpful. This analysis represents is based on the information at the date it is posted. This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information. Any feedback is encouraged and appreciated. Thank you and have a nice day!
Short
by YExplore
2
GBPAUD H4 | Falling to pullback supportGBP/AUD is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 1.90958 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 1.89740 which is a level that lies below a pullback support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is between 1.92000 and 1.92371 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
GBPNZD: Retest of the ascending channel?As we can see GBPNZD has rejected support having broken through the long term ascending channel. According to my chart we've not retested the channel yet (obvs this isn't always the case, but I would have expected it as it was a long term bullish trend), so I'm thinking it will. As this is a retracement trade i'll be looking to TP before my resistance block just in case, but I'm thinking this will move higher before a drop down to at least current levels. This also hedges against my planned GBPAUD trade in an earlier idea.
Long
by Finchcliffe
2
GBPJPY selling opportunityHey there traders, After last week market shows us nice pattern of selling pressure. Let's see ##Daily Market broke the strong support zone... and made retest and shows us a nice rejection candle at the previous support zone. Bias = Down ##Hourly Market shows us a nice support zone.... trying to break that zone several times.....but did not In Monday we expect nice and awesome breakout of that support zone...... After the breakout market will fall nicely.... Good Luck Follow money management
Short
by LNY_Trader
2