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Pound

The Bank of England's DilemmaOf the three central banks that I primarily trade, the Bank of England (BOE) has the biggest puzzle. Today's data was the worst possible for Governor Bailey and his team. Specifically, employment fell by 66,000 and the unemployment rate ticked higher by 0.2% for the second month in a row to 4.2% (the Federal Reserve would be delighted with this turn of events). On the other hand, wages continue to rise in the UK, with the ONS noting that June recorded the highest annual wage growth rate since comparable records began in 2001. In addition, we are now seeing real wages/earnings move back into positive territory for the first time since the end of 2021. The nightmare of central bankers is coming true. What does this mean? It just raises further concerns that the squeeze on the economy is starting to translate to the labor market. And in that lieu, it could lead to a sharper downturn in the quarters to come. This only validates further concerns that the UK could be facing the risks of stagflation, which is certainly not something that the BOE would like to see. Add in higher financing costs and tighter credit conditions alongside the cost of living crisis, and that's not quite the recipe for the pound to be optimistic in the bigger picture. The data is one side of the coin, but the other, more important side, is the chart, as everything is drawn on it. The area described in the previous analysis has so far prevented bears from another charge. The key level for supply is currently 1.2819 . It should be maintained if the falls are to pick up pace. It is also worth paying attention to whether the supply will remain in the downward channel (red lines). We still have important US data today, namely retail sales, which will tell us how strong the American consumer is - this may have a significant impact on GBP/USD prices.
by FinancialMindd
GBPJPY: Key Levels & Technical Outlook 🇬🇧🇯🇵 Here is my latest structure analysis for GBPJPY. Resistance 1: 183.77 - 184.25 area Support 1: 181.10 - 181.30 area Support 2: 180.44 - 180.71 area Support 3: 176.30 - 177.05 area The market is currently approaching the Resistance 1 based on the year's high. Its bullish breakout - daily candle close above will push the prices much higher. Alternatively, a bearish breakout of Support 1 may trigger a correctional movement. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
9
GBPUSD: The beginning of the end?I'm expecting full on GBP weakness over the coming weeks, regardless of what happens with the dollar. We've broken below the months of ascending trendline and so far failed to break back above, we have a beautiful bearish engulfing candle on the 4hr close from Friday. I get this pair wrong a lot (because I live in the UK and can see a car crash happening in slow motion...), so will definitely not be jumping in. We have big US CPI data on Thursday at 13.30 GMT, if inflation figures are worse (lower) than forecast then this will be good for the GBP in the short term - however I'm thinking that the best will happen is a failed retest of the trendline and I'm thinking we're starting the move back down - just deserts for how the BoE have performed imho.
Short
by Finchcliffe
GBPJPY: Breakout, Retest, Down...In my recent ideas I’ve noted JPY strength resuming and this is evident in the performance last week, and we can see this when looking at the JPYWCU chart which is like DXY for the Yen. We can see what could be a higher low forming and a fourth retest of the resistance around 0.005350 which could break. We’ve seen out-performance of the Yen against many crosses in the past week, which has generated good pips, it’s too early to suggest a strong recovery (especially as BoJ clearly want a weaker currency to support exports), however they have an economy that when recessions start to hit, I believe they’ll fair better. All crosses against yens are at their high points, this doesn’t mean they can’t go higher, but money flows and I believe the shift is starting. I’m expecting GBP weakness over the coming weeks due to high inflation and massive threat of recession, and definitely this week against the Yen, so looking for shorts around 181.4. First target will be 167 area.
Short
by Finchcliffe
GBP/USD -Flirting Resistance *W - Great British Pound seen on a more broader picture of Weekly Time-frame *W (tf) . Flirting with Trendline Resistance that rejected price action on 4 times of interactions previously. Fakeout occurance would be put to stop by 200EMA coming down as Resistance Ceiling for GBP/USD Breakout of Trendline + 200EMA re-testing them as Supports would give much more room for growth regarding GBP Below Supports - Daily Order-Block *D OB - Last Higher Low at 1.18$ - Weekly Order-Block *W OB TRADE SAFE ! *** Note that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and Consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based soly upon this Idea.
by Mr_J__fx
4
GBPJPY short on the horizon Given the chart pattern and overextended nature of this pair I’ll be looking to short this cross if the pound continues to gain in strength. A short entry on this pair will be taken with considerable caution due to the divergence in monetary policies. That being said, given the UK’s lacklustre economy I think further rate rises, although needed, will be increasingly unpalatable for the BoE and so any sustainable strength in the pound may be unlikely in the weeks to come. On the 1d, I’ll be looking to see future divergences between the price and the indicators, which I’m not currently seeing. The delta is fast approaching a resistance zone if the price continues to rise. All of these points will likely converge if the price hits my point of interest 175 - 176 (green zone).
Short
by jamesfrench73
63
🔥 NEW: GBPNZD 🔥 COUNTERTREND 🔥⚠️ A countertrend trade is a trade that is made against the prevailing trend. This means that the trader is betting that the trend will reverse and that the price will move in the opposite direction of the trend identified by P2P INDi Curve Analysis. countertrend trading can be a very profitable strategy, but it is also more risky than trend following. -SL @ 2.0930 🚫 SLO @ 2.0845 ⏳ SSO @ 2.0725 ⏳ TP1 @ 2.0525 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 2.0350 (shaving 25%) TP3 @ 2.0215 (shaving 25%) TP4 @ 2.0000 (closing ALL Sell Orders) Let's try this AGAIN, now that momentum is indicating price action is in overbought territory. That's great news for shorting this pair. WE ARE A COMMUNITY BOOST a trade idea to share with others and "pay it forward" FOLLOW to receive alerts of any new posted ideas COMMENT with questions, insight, and expertise JOIN our group chat: receive free analyses on any instrument
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
GBPCHF: Price Action Analysis & Forecast 🇬🇧🇨🇭 GBPCHF is testing a strong horizontal resistance. Here are multiple bearish clues that I spotted after the test of the underlined area: the market was rejected heavily, forming a sequence of rejection candles, the price formed a head and shoulders pattern and broke its horizontal neckline, the pair violated a support line of an expanding wedge pattern. I believe that the market will most likely drop lower soon. Goals: 1.1117 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
8