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Smart Money Trading concepts 101🔸The Smart Money Trading concept, often used in Forex and stock trading, revolves around the idea of tracking the moves made by major institutional players (like banks, hedge funds, and large financial institutions) rather than retail investors. Smart money strategies aim to identify and follow the price action patterns that large investors create, as these institutions often have access to more market-moving information and capital than individual traders. 🔸A critical part of this approach is understanding market structure, which includes concepts like Higher Highs (HH) and Lower Lows (LL). These patterns help traders determine the current trend direction and potential reversals, which can inform trading decisions. Here's how these concepts fit into the Smart Money Trading framework: 1. Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) in an Uptrend ▪️When the market is in an uptrend, it typically forms a series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows: Higher High (HH): Each new peak in the price is higher than the previous peak. Higher Low (HL): Each new low is also higher than the previous low. ▪️This pattern signifies strong buying interest, indicating that smart money may be accumulating positions in anticipation of further price increases. ▪️Traders look for breakouts beyond previous highs, as it often signifies a continuation of the uptrend. ▪️If the price breaks a recent Higher Low, it may indicate potential weakness and a possible trend reversal. 2. Lower Lows (LL) and Lower Highs (LH) in a Downtrend ▪️In a downtrend, the market structure often forms Lower Lows and Lower Highs: Lower Low (LL): Each new low is lower than the previous low. Lower High (LH): Each high in the price action is also lower than the previous high. ▪️This pattern signals that selling pressure is dominant, suggesting that institutional investors might be offloading positions. ▪️Traders watch for prices to break the most recent Lower High for potential continuation signals in the downtrend. ▪️If the price breaks above the most recent Lower High, it can indicate that the trend may be weakening, signaling a potential reversal or entry opportunity. 3. Using HH and LL to Spot Trend Reversals ▪️Trend Reversal: When a series of HH and HL in an uptrend shifts to LH and LL (or vice versa), it often signals that a reversal is underway. ▪️Smart Money traders use these shifts to spot market traps where retail traders might be misled, allowing them to capitalize on new trend directions as they unfold. 4. Smart Money Concepts in Action: Liquidity and Price Action ▪️Large players need liquidity to execute significant trades without causing excessive slippage (or price movement). This liquidity often exists near recent highs and lows. ▪️By analyzing HH, HL, LH, and LL patterns, smart money traders can identify areas of liquidity where institutions might step in. ▪️For example, a series of HHs might attract retail buyers, providing liquidity for smart money to enter or exit positions. 5. Application in Trading ▪️By following HH and LL patterns, traders can align their positions with smart money rather than getting caught in fakeouts or market traps. ▪️Traders often combine these patterns with other indicators (like volume, order blocks, or support and resistance) to confirm the presence of institutional involvement. 🔸The Smart Money approach relies heavily on understanding and interpreting these HH and LL structures to trade in sync with the institutions, avoiding common pitfalls that trap many retail traders.
Education
by ProjectSyndicate
21
BoE's plans for additional rate cuts are in conflict Expectations are mounting that the BoE would implement additional rate cuts. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has stated that inflation is decreasing more rapidly than anticipated. The UK CPI for September registered at 1.7%, falling short of the central bank's 2% target, which has intensified speculation about upcoming rate increases. Wall Street is convinced that with UK inflation already below the target, there's a strong likelihood of additional rate cuts in November and December following the recent 25bp reduction. However, there are concerns regarding the potential aftereffects of hasty rate cuts. BoE economist Catherine Mann emphasizes that, despite a general slowdown in inflation, service price inflation continues to soar. She warns that an impulsive rate hike could reignite inflationary pressures. GBPUSD advanced to the 1.3000 threshold. After breaching the descending channel’s upper bound, the price holds above both EMAs, signaling a trend reversal. If GBPUSD breaches the resistance at 1.3045, the price may gain upward momentum toward 1.3265. Conversely, if GBPUSD fails to hold above both EMAs, the price may break the channel’s upper bound again and re-enter the descending channel.
by inkicho_exness
Buy Position on GBPusd (Reward 6.5)OANDA:GBPUSD In order to the EX zone in 4H time frame, We go to 15m time frame to enter the buy position more efficiently. Note: In EX zones, we can enter the position without any confirmation, but we always get better win rate by waiting for a confirmation signals to form. The confirmation signals in my strategy (Tactical Smart Money) are two kind: 1. SCOB (single candle order block) 2. ChoCh in lower time frame As always: Make sure you have a good partial exit plan, AND "KEEP CALM & OBEY YOUR PLANS." Happy trading.. Cheers, Aurio #Crypto #Trading #Bitcoin #markets #Finance #Forex #BTC CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Long
by x-Aurio
AI Algo Trading Intro/OverviewAI ALGO TRADING INTRO/OVERVIEW 🔹AI algorithmic trading, often referred to as AI algo trading, is a sophisticated approach to financial trading that uses artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to make trading decisions. It combines finance, statistics, and computer science to analyze vast amounts of data and execute trades in real-time, often at speeds impossible for human traders. Here's a closer look at how it works, its benefits, and the key components: 1. How AI Algo Trading Works AI algo trading employs machine learning, deep learning, and other advanced data analysis techniques to create models that can predict stock prices or detect trading patterns. These AI models are designed to identify patterns or anomalies in historical and real-time data, which helps them make predictions about price movements. The algorithms can process huge datasets from multiple sources, including stock prices, news, sentiment data from social media, and even macroeconomic indicators. Typical steps involved in AI algo trading include: 🔹Data Collection: Gathering historical price data, technical indicators, financial reports, and alternative data (e.g., news, social media sentiment). Model Training: Training machine learning models on historical data to predict asset price movements or specific trading signals. 🔹Backtesting: Testing the model on historical data to see how it would have performed in the past, adjusting for any biases or errors. 🔹Execution: Implementing the model in live markets to execute trades automatically when certain conditions are met. 2. Key Components of AI Algo Trading Several key components work together in AI-driven trading systems, including: 🔹Data Management: Collecting, cleaning, and storing large volumes of financial and alternative data. 🔹Feature Engineering: Selecting or creating specific data features that improve the model's accuracy, such as moving averages, volatility measures, or sentiment scores. 🔹Machine Learning Models: Models like neural networks, decision trees, or support vector machines (SVMs) are common in AI trading. More advanced models use deep learning and reinforcement learning. 🔹Risk Management: Ensuring trades meet certain risk parameters to prevent excessive losses. Many AI algorithms have built-in risk management measures, like stop-loss limits or position size restrictions. 🔹Execution Algorithms: After generating trade signals, execution algorithms place trades in the market. These can include smart order routing and algorithms for optimizing trade timing. 3. Advantages of AI Algo Trading 🔹Speed and Efficiency: AI algorithms can execute trades within milliseconds, reacting instantly to market movements. 🔹Data-Driven Decisions: AI algo trading relies on empirical data rather than emotions, leading to potentially more consistent decision-making. 🔹Pattern Recognition: Advanced AI models can identify complex patterns in large datasets, uncovering trading opportunities that may be invisible to human traders. 🔹24/7 Operation: AI systems can monitor markets continuously, which is especially valuable in global markets that operate around the clock. 🔹Customization: AI-driven strategies can be tailored to specific asset classes, trading goals, and risk tolerances. 4. Popular AI Techniques in Trading AI algo trading employs several popular techniques: 🔹Supervised Learning: This includes models like regression, classification, and neural networks, often used to predict price changes or determine trading signals. 🔹Unsupervised Learning: Clustering and anomaly detection models help identify unusual trading patterns or group similar assets. 🔹Reinforcement Learning: This is where AI learns to optimize strategies through trial and error, which can be particularly useful for adaptive, evolving trading strategies. 🔹Sentiment Analysis: AI can analyze text data (e.g., news articles, tweets) to gauge market sentiment, adding a qualitative dimension to trading models. 5. Risks and Challenges While AI algo trading offers numerous advantages, it also comes with certain risks: 🔹Model Overfitting: Overfitting to historical data can result in poor performance in live markets if the model is too specific to past conditions. Market Volatility: AI algorithms may struggle to adapt to sudden market changes, like unexpected geopolitical events or economic crises. 🔹Technical Failures: Infrastructure and connectivity issues can disrupt AI trading systems, leading to missed opportunities or unwanted positions. 🔹Regulatory Concerns: Regulatory bodies often scrutinize algorithmic trading for issues like market manipulation, requiring firms to ensure their algorithms are compliant. 6. Future of AI Algo Trading 🔹The future of AI algo trading looks promising, with ongoing advancements in AI and access to even more diverse data sources. Innovations in quantum computing, natural language processing (NLP) for deeper sentiment analysis, and reinforcement learning for adaptive strategies are likely to further enhance AI-driven trading. 🔹As AI trading models continue to evolve, they may also become more accessible to individual investors and retail traders, allowing a broader range of market participants to benefit from data-driven trading strategies. However, regulatory agencies may also implement stricter controls to manage the risks associated with autonomous AI trading.
Education
by ProjectSyndicate
15
EUR/GBP H4 | Falling to 61.8% Fibonacci supportEUR/GBP is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 0.8321 which is a swing-low support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level support. Stop loss is at 0.8292 which is a level that sits under a multi-swing-low support. Take profit is at 0.8346 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
1
eurusd h8 buy/hold bounce setup +200 pips🔸Hello traders, let's review the 8hour chart for EURUSD today. Bears maintain control since we cracked the heavy psych level at 1.10 currently trading near 1.09 and expecting further losses before a potential bounce. 🔸Based on recent data from 2024 we had multiple 3.6% corrections before the bounces for 150-300 pips in EURUSD. specifically we had a 4% correction, 3.8% correction, 3.6% correction, 3.2% correction, 2.2% correction before strong bounces off the lows. Current correction projected to complete near 0800, this is a 3.6% correction which is typical for eurusd. 🔸Recommended strategy for EURUSD traders: focus on buying low near 0800. SL fixed at 0750 TP1 +150 pips TP2 +200 pips final. good luck traders! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Long
by ProjectSyndicate
24
GBP/JPY H4 | Rising into multi-swing-high resistanceGBP/JPY is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 195.61 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 196.35 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 193.63 which is a multi-swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
If Sep CPI slows, GBPUSD could fall further The UK's September Claimant Count Change rose to 27.9K, surpassing the market expectation of 20.2K. The UK unemployment rate in August dropped to 4.0%, the lowest level since last April. Attention now turns to the UK's September CPI results, with the market expecting a decrease to 1.9% from the previous 2.2%. If the CPI slows down, it could lead to increased expectations of further rate cuts by the BoE, putting pressure on the pound. GBPUSD showed sluggish consolidation between 1.3030-1.3100 for eight consecutive trading days. The price briefly tested the support at 1.3050, awaiting further price triggers for a rebound. If GBPUSD fails to hold the support at 1.3050, the price may fall further to 1.2960. Conversely, if GBPUSD breaches both EMAs and the resistance at 1.3250, the price could gain upward momentum to 1.3435.
by inkicho_exness
GBP/USD Fluctuates in a Narrow Range Amid Economic DataOn Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair traded within a narrow range between 1.3077 and 1.3080, showing a slight rebound from a demand area. Despite the modest movement, the market is still waiting for more significant developments before making larger moves. UK Economic Data Supports GBP Stability Earlier on Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released key employment data, which provided some support for the British Pound. The ILO Unemployment Rate for the three months leading up to August eased to 4.0%, down from 4.1% in July. Additionally, Employment Change figures showed an increase of 373K in August, up from 265K in July, indicating continued resilience in the labor market. However, the report also showed a slight softening in wage inflation, as the Average Earnings excluding Bonus dropped to 4.9%, down from 5.1%. While wage growth moderated, the overall labor market data was positive enough to give the Pound some stability in the early session. US Data and Market Outlook The economic calendar is light for the US on Tuesday, with no major data releases expected. The market’s focus will shift to Thursday when the USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are due to be released. These reports are expected to bring more volatility to the GBP/USD pair, as they will provide insights into the strength of the US economy and the potential direction of the US Dollar. Until these data are released, the British Pound may continue to hold onto small gains, but the overall market mood remains cautious. Technical Outlook: Bearish Momentum Ahead? From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD remains under bearish pressure, and we anticipate a potential continuation of this trend. While the pair has found some temporary support around the current levels, we expect the bearish momentum to continue until the pair reaches a more solid demand zone around the 1.2800 level. Until the pair approaches this level, we are refraining from opening any new positions, waiting for more clarity on market direction and potential retracement signals. Conclusion GBP/USD is holding steady in a narrow range as UK labor market data provides temporary support. However, the overall outlook remains cautious, with the potential for further bearish pressure. Investors should keep an eye on Thursday’s US data releases, which could trigger more significant movements in the pair. For now, we are waiting for GBP/USD to reach a stronger demand area before considering any new positions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
Top Down Analysis 101: Getting started📖 Forex Top-Down Technical Analysis 🔸Top-down technical analysis is a method used by traders to examine the Forex market starting from higher time frames and gradually zooming into smaller ones. 🔸This approach helps traders get a comprehensive view of the market, starting from the broader trend on long-term charts and then analyzing intermediate and short-term charts to find precise entry and exit points. 📩 Here’s a step-by-step breakdown of how top-down analysis works in Forex trading: 1. Start with Higher Time Frames 🔸Begin by analyzing the market on the higher time frames to understand the dominant trend. Typically, traders start from the Monthly (M), Weekly (W), or Daily (D) charts. 🔸Monthly Time Frame: The monthly chart provides a bird’s-eye view of long-term trends and key levels of support/resistance. You can observe the major direction of the market, whether it is trending up, down, or moving sideways. This is where traders establish the broader market context. 🔸Weekly Time Frame: Moving down to the weekly chart helps to refine the broader trend you’ve identified on the monthly chart. It reveals more intermediate levels of support and resistance, trend lines, and key price action patterns that can influence the market over a few weeks. 🔸Daily Time Frame: The daily chart helps traders zoom in further to find relevant market structures, patterns, and price movements. It also helps you evaluate the short-term trend while keeping the long-term trend in mind. 📩At this stage, traders may look for things like: 🔸Trend Direction: Is the market in an uptrend, downtrend, or range-bound (consolidation)? 🔸Support and Resistance Levels: Key horizontal levels where price has previously reacted. 🔸Price Action Patterns: Candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing patterns, pin bars) that indicate potential reversals or continuations. 2. Analyze Intermediate Time Frames 🔸After understanding the overall trend on the higher time frames, move to intermediate time frames like the 4-Hour (H4) or 1-Hour (H1) charts. These time frames give you a clearer picture of more recent price action and finer details for your analysis. 🔸Identify the Current Market Structure: Look for things like the formation of higher highs and higher lows (indicating an uptrend) or lower highs and lower lows (indicating a downtrend). 🔸Find Consolidation Areas or Breakouts: These time frames are useful for spotting breakouts or consolidations that may indicate the start of a new move. 🔸Refine Support/Resistance Zones: Draw closer support/resistance levels that are relevant to the current price action. 🔸This step helps you align your understanding of the intermediate trend with the higher time frame trend. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Education
by ProjectSyndicate
13
GBP/JPY H4 | Approaching multi-swing-high resistanceGBP/JPY is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 195.32 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 196.14 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 193.63 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
1
GBP/USD Recovery Stalls Amid Mixed U.S. Data but....The GBP/USD pair saw modest gains in early Friday trading after closing marginally lower on Thursday. Although there is potential for the pair to extend its recovery, our outlook remains firmly on the bearish side. Recent U.S. economic data, particularly inflation figures, has added to the complexity of market dynamics, impacting both the British pound and the U.S. dollar as traders assess the implications for future monetary policy. U.S. Inflation and Labor Market Update On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released key inflation data, revealing a slight softening in the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI). Year-over-year, inflation ticked down to 2.4% in September, a small decline from August’s 2.5%. While this offered some relief to inflation hawks, the core CPI—excluding the more volatile food and energy prices—rose by 3.3% on an annual basis, higher than the market's forecast of 3.2%. On a monthly basis, core inflation increased by 0.3%, signaling persistent underlying price pressures. Adding to the mix, the latest U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report showed a significant rise to 258,000 for the week ending October 5, up from 225,000 the previous week. This unexpected jump has revived concerns over a potential cooling in the labor market, complicating the outlook for future Federal Reserve policy. While rising jobless claims could increase the likelihood of a rate cut, persistent core inflation suggests that the Fed may hesitate to loosen monetary policy aggressively. Technical Outlook: Bearish Sentiment Prevails From a technical perspective, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report offers valuable insights into market positioning. The data shows that retail traders are aggressively long, while "smart money"—institutional investors—remains flat, indicating a lack of commitment to the bullish side. This divergence suggests that the broader market sentiment still leans bearish, even as the GBP/USD attempts to recover. For now, we are holding off on opening any positions, instead waiting for a clearer opportunity to emerge. Our focus is on a possible price drop toward a key demand area, where we plan to evaluate the conditions for a potential long setup. This level would provide a more favorable risk-reward scenario to enter a position aligned with a recovery strategy. Conclusion While the GBP/USD has shown early signs of a potential recovery, the broader outlook remains bearish, with mixed U.S. economic data adding uncertainty to the market's direction. The softening inflation figure offers some hope for a dovish shift in the Fed's policy, but the persistently high core CPI and rising jobless claims complicate the situation. Until clearer signals emerge, our strategy is to wait for a deeper price drop toward a demand area to position ourselves for a potential rebound. In the meantime, traders are advised to remain cautious, as volatile data releases and shifting market sentiment could lead to sudden swings in the GBP/USD pair in the coming sessions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBPUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
BoE is dovisher than the Fed. Will Sterling continue to fall? Sterling is exhibiting weakness as a robust US economy bolsters the dollar. With the likelihood of a substantial Fed rate cut now nullified by the strong US job market, speculation of further rate cuts by the BoE in November is exerting downward pressure on the GBPUSD. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's statement about the potential for more aggressive rate cuts in response to ongoing inflation decline has intensified apprehensions about the BoE's hawkish monetary policy. It is also worth noting that the UK Treasury is expected to present a budget with tax hikes and austerity measures. This could exert pressure on near-term growth for the UK economy and lead to a decline in the value of the Sterling. GBPUSD maintained its downtrend and fell to 1.3060. The widening distance between both EMAs suggests a bearish momentum. If GBPUSD breaks the support at 1.3050, the price may fall further to 1.2960. Conversely, if GBPUSD breaches the resistance at 1.3250 and holds above both EMAs, the price could gain upward momentum toward 1.3435.
by inkicho_exness
GBP/USD Weakness Continues Amid Expect. of Faster BoE Rate Cuts As anticipated in our previous analysis, the British Pound (GBP) remains under pressure, with the GBP/USD pair showing continued signs of weakness. Market sentiment suggests that the Bank of England (BoE) could accelerate its rate-cutting cycle, a view bolstered by recent dovish remarks from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey. Last week, Bailey hinted that the central bank might adopt a more aggressive stance on cutting rates if inflation continues to show favorable trends. This prospect has increased market bets on rate cuts, which is contributing to the downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Market Sentiment: Retailers Hopeful, Smart Money Bearish From a sentiment perspective, retail traders remain hopeful for a possible bullish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. However, smart money (institutional investors) continues to lean towards a bearish outlook, aligning their positions with the broader market expectation of a weakening Pound in the face of potential rate cuts by the BoE. Technical Outlook: Identified Demand Area Technically, we have recognized a potential demand area where the price may find support. However, the downward trend could extend further, particularly after the release of the FOMC Minutes, which may provide more clarity on the direction of US monetary policy. This could continue to push the GBP/USD pair lower. At this moment, patience is crucial. We are waiting for the price to approach key levels where a potential reversal could occur, but it is essential to wait for confirmation before taking action. Conclusion The British Pound remains under pressure as markets increasingly believe that the Bank of England could accelerate its rate-cutting cycle. Governor Bailey's recent comments have fueled this speculation, leading to increased bearish sentiment in the GBP/USD pair. For now, patience remains key as we wait for the price to reach critical demand areas that may offer a chance for a reversal. Until then, traders should remain cautious and avoid premature entries. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBPUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
Cross Roads for the CableOn the Weekly, we see that the market is in a Bullish swing. After prices rallied to form the high, it has begun the bearish retracement, dipping towards the reversal zones which are refined from the existing PB of the Weekly. This narrative above is also the same for the Daily chart. On the Daily, not only dow e see a chart that is bullish and now retracing bearish into the refined zone, but we can notice that at this time, price is well inside the zone, and even threatening to break bearish and breach the zone. Now my analysis: I expect the Daily reversal zone to hold. Where that happens, we expect to see prices go all the way up to hit Daily liquidity target and at the same time give us an extension of the current bullish swing on both the Daily and Weekly charts. If it does go this way, we will pull our our panzy pips trading system and begin to catch trades on the extension rally. On the other hand, in the unlikely event that our daily zone fails, we will expect to see prices retrace deeper and dip lower towards the weekly reversal zone, from where we will watch out for reversals inside that zone. The rally will be expected to begin from there, and from there drive prices all the way up towards the Weekly liquidy target. This is gonna be one hell of a rally, so y'all better be ready to cath some great deal of profit off of that rally. As usual, we will look to trade that rally applying our same trad entry systems unique to panzy pips traders. See you at the top of that cliff guys ...
Long
by PanzyPips
2
Will GBP Drop Further? Bearish Pressure Mounts Near Key LevelThe British Pound (GBP) continues to face downside pressure near the key level of 1.3100 against the US Dollar (USD) during Monday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair remains under strain as the US Dollar holds firm, near a seven-week high, bolstered by strong Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September, released last Friday. This robust US labor market performance has further supported the dollar's strength. In our previous analysis, we closed our positions on this pair (view chart below): GBP/USD Previous Forecast. Bearish Sentiment: Continuation or Reversal? Looking ahead, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that retail traders remain heavily on the bearish side, which adds weight to the possibility of further downside pressure. While there is no immediate position to open, we will be closely monitoring market developments. Given the fundamental outlook, our attention will turn to a potential long position if the price retraces to our identified Demand area. Until then, we remain cautious, awaiting clearer signals for a possible entry point as the market evolves. Conclusion With the US Dollar's recent strength driven by solid economic data, the GBP/USD pair continues to hover near critical levels. While the current sentiment leans bearish, we will keep a close watch on fundamental shifts and technical signals to reassess future trade opportunities. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBPUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
GBPJPY H4 - Short Signal GBPJPY H4 For those that watched the market analysis and live charting video, you would have seen us discuss GBPJPY and the 195 psychological price/sell zone. We have since seen this zone tested and subsequently rejected. How much mileage this setup has... I don't know, but if we can break 194.500, we should see a send lower. A break and candle close around or below 194.500 is important, breaking this H4 and H1 consolidation, EUR and LON session could certainly be enough to drive this setup where is needs to go.
Short
by Trade_Simple_FX
1