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GBP/USD Up on Positive Growth DataThe British pound climbed to $1.2560 after preliminary data showed the UK economy grew by 0.1% in the final quarter of 2024, defying expectations of a 0.1% contraction and outperforming the Bank of England’s forecasts. This puts the economy slightly ahead of where it was when Labour took office in July, offering some relief to the government. However, challenges remain as the Office for Budget Responsibility is set to release an updated economic and fiscal outlook on March 26, with reports indicating a lowered growth forecast. Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25bps to 4.5% last week, its third reduction since beginning its easing cycle in August 2024, while also downgrading its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.7%. 1.2600 is the first resistance level, with further targets at 1.2650 and 1.2700 if the pair moves higher. On the downside, 1.2340 serves as the first support level, followed by 1.2265 and 1.2100 if selling pressure intensifies.
by ChartMage
GBP/USD Supported by Peace Deal HopesThe GBP/USD traded at $1.246, holding steady with global market optimism. The pound found support from peace deal hopes between Ukraine and Russia but struggled against a stronger U.S. dollar, supported by rising Treasury yields and recent inflation data. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate cuts has kept the dollar firm, while UK economic concerns, including a potential GDP contraction, weigh on the pound. With upcoming U.S. PPI data, GBP/USD could face further pressure. The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2500. In the event of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2600 and 1.2650. On the downside 1.2340 will be the first support level. 1.2265 and 1.2100 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
by ChartMage
GBP/USD Rises as Traders Scale Back Aggressive BoE Easing BetsThe British pound rose to $1.2440, rebounding from a three-week low as traders adjusted rate cut expectations after BoE policymaker Catherine Mann’s comments. Although she voted for a 50bps cut, she clarified it wasn’t a signal for aggressive easing but aimed to improve market communication. She emphasized the need to maintain monetary restrictions due to structural challenges in returning inflation to 2%, leading traders to lower 2025 rate cut expectations to 62bps. Focus now shifts to upcoming GDP estimates, Q4 figures, and December’s industrial and manufacturing output. The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2500. In the event of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2600 and 1.2650. On the downside 1.2340 will be the first support level. 1.2265 and 1.2100 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
by ChartMage
Pound Hits Three-Week High as Markets Await BoE CutThe British pound rose above $1.25, its highest since January 7, as the US dollar weakened and the focus shifted to the Bank of England’s Thursday decision. Policymakers are expected to cut rates by 25bps to 4.5%, reflecting slowing growth and easing services inflation. Market sentiment remained cautious over US tariffs, with concerns about a US-China trade conflict impacting global stability. Meanwhile, UK input price inflation hit an 18-month high in January, according to the latest PMI report. The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2500. In the event of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2600 and 1.2650. On the downside 1.2340 will be the first support level. 1.2265 and 1.2100 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
by ChartMage
GBP/USD Stuck Between Fed Policy and BoE DecisionThe USD Index (DXY) remains near its weekly low as expectations grow for further Fed monetary easing. Tuesday’s JOLTS report signaled a cooling US labor market, increasing speculation of rate cuts despite inflation concerns. Global sentiment is positive after President Trump delayed tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, easing trade war fears. This risk-on mood weakens the USD’s safe-haven appeal while supporting GBP/USD. However, lingering US-China trade tensions and the Fed’s hawkish stance limit USD losses, keeping GBP/USD gains in check. Traders await Thursday’s BoE policy meeting with key resistance levels at 1.2500, 1.2600, and 1.2650. Support stands at 1.2340, followed by 1.2265 and 1.2100.
by ChartMage
GBP/USD Analysis by zForex Research TeamGBP/USD Recovers as Trump Pauses Tariffs, But Risks Persist The British pound rebounded above $1.24 after falling to $1.225, following Trump’s deal with Mexico’s President Sheinbaum to pause tariffs for a month. Uncertainty remains as Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, 10% on China, and threatened the EU and UK. Growing trade tensions have fueled expectations of Bank of England rate cuts, with markets pricing in 81bps of cuts by December and a 95% chance of a 25bps cut to 4.5% this Thursday. The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2450. In the event of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2500 and 1.2600. On the downside 1.2265 will be the first support level. 1.2100 and 1.1900 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
by ChartMage
Recession concerns have provoked the BoE’s will to cut rates Concerns about a UK recession are intensifying, making a BoE rate cut next month likely. The recent December retail sales data from the ONS reveals a decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous month, a stark contrast to the market's expectation of a 0.4% increase. This clearly indicates that consumer apprehension regarding the economic downturn is escalating rapidly. The market firmly anticipates that the BoE will reduce interest rates by an additional 25bp during the monetary policy meeting on February 6. Furthermore, many analysts assert that, given the current state of the UK economy, the BoE is poised to execute four interest rate cuts this year. After breaking out of the ascending channel, GBPUSD trades sideways around 1.2450. However, the price holds above EMA21, indicating a potential for an extension of bullish momentum. If GBPUSD reenters the channel, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 1.2500 threshold. Conversely, if GBPUSD fails to hold above EMA21, the price could fall further to the support at 1.2350, where EMA78 coincides.
by inkicho_exness
GBPNZD - The pound, at peace?!The GBPNZD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the downward trend continues, we can see the demand zone and buy this currency pair in that zone with the appropriate risk reward. The upward correction of this currency pair will provide us with the opportunity to sell it again. According to Bloomberg, in response to rising borrowing costs, the UK bond market has requested that the government reduce the issuance of long-term bonds next year. During annual consultation meetings held on Monday, traders strongly advocated for a reduction in the maturity of bonds issued for the fiscal year 2025-2026 compared to current levels. The majority of investors favor increasing the issuance of short-term bonds due to declining demand for long-term bonds from pension funds. The Debt Management Office mentioned in its meeting minutes that the market requires greater flexibility due to “uncertainty.” The recent rise in UK bond yields has posed new challenges for the government, and these proposals could help the government adapt to the shifts in demand. As reported by the Financial Times, UK Treasury Minister Rachel Reeves has expressed support for regulatory plans aimed at reducing restrictions on mortgage lending.These plans, which are being reviewed by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), aim to allow banks to take on more risk with mortgage loans, enabling more people to become homeowners. In an interview with the Financial Times, Reeves stated her willingness to consider the FCA’s proposals for easing mortgage restrictions. She said, “I am fully prepared to explore ideas that can help working families achieve homeownership.” This week, Reeves traveled to Davos to participate in the World Economic Forum and promote the UK as a prime destination for investment. This effort is part of the Labour government’s strategy to stimulate economic growth, as the UK experienced a recession in the second half of last year. Given the stringent fiscal rules Reeves has imposed on herself and the decline in business confidence following her decision to raise employer national insurance contributions in the October budget, the Treasury Minister has faced significant political pressure since the start of the year. The Treasury is at the forefront of the government’s efforts to push regulators to introduce growth-enhancing measures. Last week, Reeves met with several UK regulatory officials to gather their ideas on this matter. Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the number of job vacancies in the UK decreased to 812,000 in the quarter ending December. Additionally, the economic inactivity rate dropped to 21.6% in the three months ending November. Traders have increased their bets on an interest rate cut by the Bank of England, expecting a reduction of 64 basis points this year. Moreover, December data indicates that the UK’s public sector net debt (excluding banking groups) rose to £17.8 billion, up from the previous figure of £11.2 billion. Public sector tax receipts increased to £19.9 billion, a notable rise compared to the previous £13.0 billion. Similarly, central government net debt climbed to £19.9 billion, up from £16.3 billion previously. Meanwhile, in the latest Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction in New Zealand, the GDT price index increased by 1.4%, while whole milk powder prices rose by 5%.
Long
by Ali_PSND
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 22, 2025 GBPUSDThe Pound saw mixed results from UK labour data, but the UK's own Labour Department is taking the figures as a grain of salt. On the US side, US President Donald Trump brushed aside his campaign promises of sweeping tariffs against all US trading partners, focusing on new, more subtle tariff threats against US North American trading partners Canada and Mexico. Markets shuddered as investors tried to keep up with the new headline generator - President Trump. Investors were betting big that the newly minted US president would not impose tariffs on day one, as he has long threatened to do, but a new round of renewed trade rhetoric has market sentiment fluctuating in the mid-range. With only little significant data scheduled for Wednesday, pairs traders will focus on the headlines likely to be released during US trading hours. Pound traders will be keeping an eye on Friday's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from S&P Global, which is due out on both sides of the Atlantic. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2280, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Trump Bullish for USD! Farage Next for GBP?!With the way the media is promoting Nigel Farage more day by day & getting his face out there, I’m starting to think his been ‘selected’ as the next U.K. Prime Minister. They’re drip feeding the idea into the publics head. Also, with the way the media is releasing more & more race hate content & dividing people, it’ll be ‘completely normal’ when a far right politician into power, as no one will question it or even think to say he had no support behind him. With all the race hate & division content being promoted by the media, we’ll see a lot more aggro against coloured people & immigrants. This’ll be the main factor used to make the public believe Nigel Farage was put into power by the public. This is just my theory. Let’s see how it pans out!
by BA_Investments
Pound Down Under: Will the FVG Hold or Flip? - GBPAUDThe GBPAUD chart showcases intriguing price action with a potential bearish setup. Following the raid on higher time frame (HTF) buyside liquidity (weekly), price has displaced lower, signaling a short-term bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, price has formed a high-probability FVG after raiding a short-term low. This FVG becomes a key level to watch: -Scenario 1: If price respects the FVG, expect continuation to the downside, targeting sell-side liquidity levels at 1.98994 and 1.97929. -Scenario 2: If the FVG is disrespected and used as an Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG), anticipate a bullish reversal, potentially pushing price higher. Conclusion: Short-term bearish bias targeting sell-side liquidity zones. Monitor the FVG closely for confirmation or invalidation. DYOR!
Short
by INSIDER_INTEL
GBP/JPY H4 | Potential bearish breakoutGBP/JPY is falling towards a potential breakout level and it could drop lower from here. Sell entry is at 190.19 which is a potential breakout level. Stop loss is at 191.97 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and beyond a descending trendline. Take profit is at 188.46 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 14, 2025 GBPUSDGBP/USD faltered as markets changed their expectations for interest rates before the end of the year, sending the pair to fresh 15-month lows and breaking through 1.2100, but then ended trading near the 1.2230 starting point. It has been a quiet start to the week, but more inflation data from both the US and the UK will give traders plenty of material to ponder as they try to determine the first quarter rate differential forecast. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep interest rates steady for the first half of the year, while the Bank of England (BoE) will have to choose between keeping interest rates stable in a still-high inflation environment and risking an inflationary spike to support the floundering UK economy with further rate cuts. Tuesday's significant data of the week will start with the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which is expected to rise to 3.7% y/y in December from the previous reading of 3.4%. Wednesday will see the release of UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, which is also expected to accelerate in the near term, with a rise to 0.4% m/m versus the previous reading of 0.1%. US CPI inflation, also out on Wednesday, is forecast to rise to 2.8% from 2.7%, US retail sales data is expected on Thursday and UK retail sales round out the list of important data this week. Trading recommendation: Watching the level of 1.2150, trading mainly with Sell orders
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPUSD -Dollar, employment indicators or tariff news?!The GBPUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of upward correction of the currency pair, it is possible to sell this currency pair within the specified supply zone. If the downward trend continues due to the release of economic data this week, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. The yield on the UK’s 30-year bonds reached 5.22%, the highest level since 1998. This surge followed the sale of similar maturity bonds and heightened concerns about the large issuance of government debt. The UK government plans to issue £297 billion in bonds during the current fiscal year, marking the second-highest figure in the country’s history. This substantial issuance has exerted significant pressure on the bond market and raised fears about mounting national debt. Moreover, expectations of a smaller rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) have added further strain to the bond market. The UK government faces a considerable challenge in balancing the need to gain investors’ trust while managing its growing debt burden. The market remains overshadowed by the controversial 2022 budget under Liz Truss, the former Conservative Prime Minister. Meanwhile, recent data has led to improved economic forecasts. Real personal consumption expenditure growth for Q4 is now expected to rise from 3% to 3.3%, while projections for real private domestic investment growth have improved from -0.9% to -0.6%. Additionally, the contribution of net exports to real GDP growth in Q4 has been revised upward from 0.07% to 0.11%. Goldman Sachs has reduced its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts in 2025 from 100 basis points to 75 basis points. The bank does not anticipate that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies will result in rate hikes. Goldman Sachs notes that core inflation is declining and remains skeptical about Trump’s policy changes having a significant impact on interest rates. According to a report by The Washington Post, Trump may impose tariffs that are more limited in scope than he had promised during his campaign. This news has led to a decline in the value of the US dollar. Such reactions are likely to recur as more details about the tariffs are announced. Reports of lower tariffs typically weaken the dollar. But what happens if higher tariffs are imposed, such as those targeting China? Chris Meissner from Santa Clara University believes, “The Chinese yuan will appear weaker relative to the US dollar, which will strengthen the dollar to offset part of the direct tariff impact.” Olivier Jeanne, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, stated, “A stronger dollar benefits American consumers by lowering the cost of imports.” He added, “It is also advantageous for American tourists traveling abroad when the dollar is strong.” However, he cautioned that this is detrimental to the export sector, as a stronger dollar means other countries would need more of their own currency to purchase American goods. With approximately two weeks remaining until Trump’s inauguration, the threats surrounding his proposed tariff plans have already introduced stress into the global trade system and created uncertainties regarding inflation and interest rate trends.
Short
by Ali_PSND
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