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Pound Down Under: Will the FVG Hold or Flip? - GBPAUDThe GBPAUD chart showcases intriguing price action with a potential bearish setup. Following the raid on higher time frame (HTF) buyside liquidity (weekly), price has displaced lower, signaling a short-term bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, price has formed a high-probability FVG after raiding a short-term low. This FVG becomes a key level to watch: -Scenario 1: If price respects the FVG, expect continuation to the downside, targeting sell-side liquidity levels at 1.98994 and 1.97929. -Scenario 2: If the FVG is disrespected and used as an Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG), anticipate a bullish reversal, potentially pushing price higher. Conclusion: Short-term bearish bias targeting sell-side liquidity zones. Monitor the FVG closely for confirmation or invalidation. DYOR!
Short
by INSIDER_INTEL
GBP/JPY H4 | Potential bearish breakoutGBP/JPY is falling towards a potential breakout level and it could drop lower from here. Sell entry is at 190.19 which is a potential breakout level. Stop loss is at 191.97 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and beyond a descending trendline. Take profit is at 188.46 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 14, 2025 GBPUSDGBP/USD faltered as markets changed their expectations for interest rates before the end of the year, sending the pair to fresh 15-month lows and breaking through 1.2100, but then ended trading near the 1.2230 starting point. It has been a quiet start to the week, but more inflation data from both the US and the UK will give traders plenty of material to ponder as they try to determine the first quarter rate differential forecast. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep interest rates steady for the first half of the year, while the Bank of England (BoE) will have to choose between keeping interest rates stable in a still-high inflation environment and risking an inflationary spike to support the floundering UK economy with further rate cuts. Tuesday's significant data of the week will start with the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which is expected to rise to 3.7% y/y in December from the previous reading of 3.4%. Wednesday will see the release of UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, which is also expected to accelerate in the near term, with a rise to 0.4% m/m versus the previous reading of 0.1%. US CPI inflation, also out on Wednesday, is forecast to rise to 2.8% from 2.7%, US retail sales data is expected on Thursday and UK retail sales round out the list of important data this week. Trading recommendation: Watching the level of 1.2150, trading mainly with Sell orders
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPUSD -Dollar, employment indicators or tariff news?!The GBPUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of upward correction of the currency pair, it is possible to sell this currency pair within the specified supply zone. If the downward trend continues due to the release of economic data this week, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. The yield on the UK’s 30-year bonds reached 5.22%, the highest level since 1998. This surge followed the sale of similar maturity bonds and heightened concerns about the large issuance of government debt. The UK government plans to issue £297 billion in bonds during the current fiscal year, marking the second-highest figure in the country’s history. This substantial issuance has exerted significant pressure on the bond market and raised fears about mounting national debt. Moreover, expectations of a smaller rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) have added further strain to the bond market. The UK government faces a considerable challenge in balancing the need to gain investors’ trust while managing its growing debt burden. The market remains overshadowed by the controversial 2022 budget under Liz Truss, the former Conservative Prime Minister. Meanwhile, recent data has led to improved economic forecasts. Real personal consumption expenditure growth for Q4 is now expected to rise from 3% to 3.3%, while projections for real private domestic investment growth have improved from -0.9% to -0.6%. Additionally, the contribution of net exports to real GDP growth in Q4 has been revised upward from 0.07% to 0.11%. Goldman Sachs has reduced its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts in 2025 from 100 basis points to 75 basis points. The bank does not anticipate that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies will result in rate hikes. Goldman Sachs notes that core inflation is declining and remains skeptical about Trump’s policy changes having a significant impact on interest rates. According to a report by The Washington Post, Trump may impose tariffs that are more limited in scope than he had promised during his campaign. This news has led to a decline in the value of the US dollar. Such reactions are likely to recur as more details about the tariffs are announced. Reports of lower tariffs typically weaken the dollar. But what happens if higher tariffs are imposed, such as those targeting China? Chris Meissner from Santa Clara University believes, “The Chinese yuan will appear weaker relative to the US dollar, which will strengthen the dollar to offset part of the direct tariff impact.” Olivier Jeanne, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, stated, “A stronger dollar benefits American consumers by lowering the cost of imports.” He added, “It is also advantageous for American tourists traveling abroad when the dollar is strong.” However, he cautioned that this is detrimental to the export sector, as a stronger dollar means other countries would need more of their own currency to purchase American goods. With approximately two weeks remaining until Trump’s inauguration, the threats surrounding his proposed tariff plans have already introduced stress into the global trade system and created uncertainties regarding inflation and interest rate trends.
Short
by Ali_PSND
2
USOIL PredictionWelcome to our trading analysis! It’s great to see dedicated traders like you pursuing success with focus and determination. Trading is not just about profits—it’s about learning, adapting, and growing with every market movement. Today, we’re analyzing USOIL, which is currently trading at $74, with a bullish target of $100. The market is forming a falling wedge pattern, a classic bullish setup signaling a potential upward breakout. Before the price reaches the target, it needs to confirm a breakout from this wedge, which will mark the beginning of a strong rally. This pattern indicates a high reward-to-risk opportunity for traders who patiently wait for the breakout confirmation. Watch for strong volume and momentum during the breakout phase, as these are critical indicators of strength. Stay focused, trust your analysis, and remember that consistency and discipline are the keys to long-term trading success.
TVC:USOILLong
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
GBP/JPY H4 | Approaching pullback supportGBP/JPY is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 195.49 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 194.06 which is a level that sits under an overlap support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 198.81 which is a multi-swing-high-resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
GBP/JPY H1 | Potential bullish bounceGBP/JPY is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 197.87 which is an overlap support. Stop loss is at 197.09 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 198.81 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 26, 2024 GBPUSDGBP/USD currency pair was not traded on Wednesday due to the closure of the Forex market. On the weekly timeframe, the pound demonstrates similar dynamics to the euro. The differences lie in the strength of the movements, reflecting the different stability of the euro and the pound. However, the general trend is set by the growth of the US dollar, which has been strengthening for 16 years. This confirms that it is the dollar that is driving the market, not the weakness of the euro or pound. Over the past 16 years, the euro has depreciated 1.55 times and the pound 1.69 times. The pound's faster fall is due to the UK's economic problems. The pound has recovered more strongly than the euro over the past two years, but this movement remains a correction within a global downtrend. The fall in the British currency is likely to continue. If the global trend is not completed, the pound could fall to the 1.18 level in 2025 or even below this parity. The completion of a 16-year trend requires significant catalysts, which have not yet been seen. The main driving force for the pair remains economic data from the US, while the British Pound continues to be under pressure due to weak macroeconomic data and political instability in the UK. Investors should keep an eye on news related to the Fed's monetary policy and interest rate expectations. Trading recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
XAUUSD on the way to 2900 Price LevelThe currency pair in focus is XAU/USD, representing the exchange rate between gold (XAU) and the US Dollar (USD). The current price of XAU/USD is 2611, meaning one ounce of gold is valued at 2611 US Dollars. The target price is 2900, indicating a projected increase in gold's value to 2900 USD per ounce. The expected gain is 2000 pips, with each pip representing a small price movement in the currency pair. The pattern being observed is a Symmetrical Triangle, a chart formation that indicates a period of consolidation. In this pattern, the price moves between converging trendlines, suggesting that the market is uncertain and waiting for a breakout. A breakout occurs when the price breaks above the upper trendline or below the lower trendline, signaling a strong price movement. Traders are watching for this breakout, as it could push the price toward the target of 2900. The symmetrical triangle pattern typically leads to a significant price movement once the breakout occurs, making it a key technical indicator. This setup is used by traders to anticipate the direction of the next major move in the market.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
GBPUSD on the way to 1.34The currency pair in focus is GBP/USD, representing the British Pound (GBP) and the US Dollar (USD). The current price of the pair is 1.25, meaning 1 British Pound is worth 1.25 US Dollars. The target price is 1.34, indicating an expected price movement to 1.34, where the British Pound will be worth 1.34 US Dollars. The gain in pips is 400, meaning the price is anticipated to rise by 400 pips, with each pip representing a small movement in the exchange rate. The strategy being followed is based on support and resistance levels, which are key concepts in technical analysis. Support refers to a price level where the pair tends to find buying interest, while resistance represents a price level where selling interest is typically strong. This suggests the pair has recently bounced from a support level and is approaching a resistance level. If the price breaks through the resistance, it could move toward the target price. The pattern of support and resistance helps traders identify potential entry and exit points, guiding them towards achieving the 400-pip gain. This strategy relies on observing price trends and historical levels of support and resistance to predict future price movements. Good Volume Expecting.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
GBP/USD: Market Sentiment and the Road Ahead for the PoundFollowing up on our previous analysis of GBP/USD, it has been a tumultuous week for the Pound, which experienced significant declines on Wednesday and Thursday. Although GBP/USD managed a brief correction higher on Friday, it ultimately closed the week in negative territory. At the time of writing, the pair is in a consolidation phase, trading below the 1.2545 mark. The sharp drop in GBP/USD can be attributed to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish dot plot, coupled with the Bank of England's relatively dovish stance after its final policy meeting of the year. This combination led to a notable downturn in the currency pair. However, as we approached the weekend, a more positive shift in market sentiment emerged due to the US Congress successfully averting a government shutdown, which caused the US Dollar (USD) to weaken against its peers. This turn of events allowed GBP/USD to recover some of its earlier losses. From a technical analysis perspective, we are anticipating continued bearish momentum for the Pound against the USD as we approach the next demand zone. Previous Idea: ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 20, 2024 GBPUSDThe Bank of England kept its key rate at 4.75%, which was in line with market expectations. However, three members voted for a rate cut, which came as a surprise and emphasized the regulator's softer stance. This reinforced expectations of significant monetary policy easing in 2025 - the BoE is projected to cut the rate up to four times at 0.25%. In comparison, the Fed is planning less aggressive cuts another 1-2 times, which strengthens the US Dollar's position and puts pressure on the Pound. The economic situation in the UK remains unstable. The Bank of England lowered its GDP growth forecasts for 2024, pointing to weak economic dynamics. Despite the high growth of wages (5.2%), inflation remains above the target level, which requires the preservation of tight monetary policy. At the same time, the regulator noted that its easing will begin only after a steady decline in inflation to 2%. The fundamental background for the British currency remains negative. Investors will follow further statements of the Bank of England and economic data, but in the near future the pound is likely to continue a gradual decline. Trading recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/JPY H4 | Potential bullish bounceGBP/JPY is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 194.63 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 192.70 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 197.35 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 17, 2024 GBPUSDGBP/USD broke a three-day losing streak that took the pair to 1.2600 last week, recovering just over half a percent on Monday to return to the 1.2700 range. UK services PMI results for December hit an 11-month low. On Tuesday, UK traders will focus on wage and labor data. Quarterly average wages are expected to rise to 5% year-on-year. Markets await the Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday. Traders will be closely watching the Fed's updated summary of economic projections (SEP) and interest rate forecasts from policymakers. U.S. PMI data for December was mixed, with the services PMI hitting multi-year highs and the manufacturing PMI falling below 50.0, indicating contraction. Retail sales data will be released on Tuesday, but may attract limited market attention ahead of the Fed's final rate decision this year. On Wednesday, traders will keep an eye on fresh UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, while the rest of the market will await the Bank of England's (BoE) latest rate decision scheduled for Thursday. The Bank of England is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged. Trading recommendation: Watching the level of 1.2700, trading mainly with Buy orders
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD Sell Setup Incoming!!we can clearly see a nice formation of a bearish structure on the monthly timeframe which is consistent with the weekly structure we also a key monumental shift on the EMA crossover and the price is now below the trendline So as the DXY (Dollar index) continue to rise we shall see GBPUSD continue lower and currently we have multiple confirmation in higher structure confirming the probability setup Use proper risk management!! stop loss anywhere at 1.29000 level seem okey!! target 1.21500 Make sure you follow me for more updates
Short
by ShinForex1