GJI am seeing a long sell
DAILY
We have struggled to break the high for the third time, telling us the ceiling is high and filled with sellers. An ascending channel is forming and within it we have another ascending channel which adds to the confluence.
4H
We have a bullish channel in the smaller ascending channel. Where it is also struggling to break the high. 179.80, this gives us ideas of what to do next as we wait on the market open today which will come with the supply.
1H
Impulsive bearish candles, they dragging each other. Let's stay watching 192.20 and see how the trade idea goes.
Pound
GBPUSDThe pound, like the euro, is also in a long context since yesterday. A clear order flow in the long direction is visible. The target in the form of the previous day's high (PDH) has already been reached in the news-driven movement. I've marked the second target for the day, which is the nearest high-liquidity zone.
EUR/GBP H4 | Rising into pullback resistanceEUR/GBP is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 0.8568 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 0.8596 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 0.8531 which is a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Analysis of England POUND in Daily Time
The British economy, like Europe, is waiting for collapse and weakening, and the time has come for the dollar to dominate again.
This currency has taken a downward guard and by hitting the key and important red resistance area, the energy needed to launch the price to the 1.18 area with the first scenario and to reach the 1.036 area with the second scenario.
GJStill holding a bad trade from yesterday, entered too early.
DAILY
We had a close with a reversal stop candle which was showing us downwards demand, now we we are forming a bullish reversal candle. So we know that the candlestick use is wrong, as we should use patterns to give us more guidance. Retesting 192.00, which we have established as our resistance and price of reversal.
4H
192.50 was the turning point and we are still moving to down side, so we will wait and hold.
Having a trend within a trend, we have a bullish reversal channel forming in the larger bull structure, therefore we need a break and retest in order to fully execute this trade idea.
1H
The close of the candlestick will give us the confirmation we need to start thinking of placing our sells. 191.60 is where we need to break and reject before we fully execute.
15Min
First let price reach 191.80 and break through here first.
GJWe were triggered in our sell and stop out within a few minutes. So we must sit back and wait for a better trading opportunity.
DAILY
We fighting to go up and candlesticks are very bullish. We will possibly see a 193.00 touch
4H
Support at 192.00, if we get a rejection here at 192.70 we could get a nice sell opportunity.
1H
It's a bad trade idea, we have only one confluence, RR is not what we would go for and highly risky. Our aim is to trade with the lowest amount of risk.
15Min
Stay watching
EURGBP: Multiple Time Frame Analysis & Bearish Outlook 🇪🇺🇬🇧
Take a look how EURGBP reacted to a daily falling trend line
on a 4H time frame.
The market started to consolidate within a narrow range
and was stuck within for 2 trading days.
Today we see a strong bearish movement with a confirmed violation
of the support of the range.
It indicates the strength of the sellers.
We can anticipate a bearish movement lower, at least to 0.8562
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
GJI made a big error that I had not seen till it picked up. I had placed the trade on UJ instead of GJ🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣. So now I'm watching this hit my TP and holding a possible loss.
DAILY
We heading back up to 193.50 and we just need to watch how it goes there.
4H
191.30 was the support we needed to keep going and here we currently are.
1H
191.20 is now the support we would believe to be what will push up the whole way up.
15Min
Just wait and watch
GBPUSD#GBPUSD
The short context is strongly pronounced, and due to the bank holidays, a liquidity outflow is evident. I believe the target will be reached within tomorrow's session. Ideally, we'll see liquidity taken above before continuing with the short order flow. Invalidation of the scenario can be considered if the price closes above 1.26500.
GJDAILY
Still expanding the current wedge we are in. Peaking at 193.50, which could either be our ceiling this week or our target before heading up to 193.60
4H
We are still in a small pullback flag, so the assumption stays that long term we are bullish but no commitment as of yet.
1H
We either going to bounce on 191.30 or we are going to get rejected at 192.00, for now just hold on and wait.
15Min
Opened with gapping downwards and now we are shooting upwards. So that shortfall will be recovered, for now stay watching. We'll wait for more developments.
GJWe did well on the trade. Now rinse and repeat.
DAILY
Broke down below 191.24 and closed there. We are currently forming a reversal candlestick, the next candlestick will give us direction.
4H
We are trying to reverse from the drop that happened. Bouncing off 190.80, and we still pushing up. We still in the middle of a bear channel reversal, so we are waiting for it to touch either 190.00 or 192.00 before we follow through on any trades.
1H
Waiting for the rejection at 191.24 or the break through of it so we get more direction of what we are doing.
15Min
We in a downtrend, so there is no intention to look for longs.
NB!!!!!!!!!
NFP FRIDAYS WE ONLY TRADE AFTER NFP TO AVOID DOING THE WRONG THINGS.
GJWe did well and got both our trades hit our exit point. Now rinse and repeat
DAILY
Broke through a resistance level and started creating new highs, plus our ascend was very impulsive and engulfed the bears in the market. Indicating we are pushing up and fighting bears now.
4H
191.24, the support price I will believe will give us further signs to look for longs in the market.
1H
Broke 191.24, retested 191.80 and kept going. Now it's slowed down at 192.20 so we stay patient and wait for the trade to come to us.
15Min
Next candle closes bearish engulfing and we will have some sort of bear run, just the length of the run we won't know exactly (remember we are in a full bull run, Daily structure)
NFP preview: Trading S&P or GBPUSD? NFP preview: Trading S&P or GBPUSD?
US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated on multiple occasions that a tight labor market acts as a deterrent to lowering interest rates. Which is why this month's NFP data release should be interesting.
This Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data is expected to show an addition of 200,000 new jobs. Since Feb 2023, data has consistently hovered between 300K and 150K. Many of these initial readings were subsequently revised downwards. Nevertheless, at the time, they significantly reduced the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts and, most recently, bolstered the dollar.
Traders anticipated ~6 rate cuts at the beginning of the year, but now will be content if the Fed reduces rates three times. However, even three rate cuts are dubious, given that most recent US data has exceeded expectations. This Monday, the ISM manufacturing index turned positive for the first time since October 2022.
If the NFP data surpasses expectations, GBP/USD could become an attractive trade. In the event of a soft NFP reading, attention could shift to the S&P, which would have a window to rebound before major banks commence reporting their latest earnings.
GBP/USD has remained trapped within a rectangular pattern for almost 100 days now, potentially indicating some strong boundaries to take note of for a range trade. The pair currently sits in the lower half of the range.
The jobs data on Friday could heavily influence Wall Street's sentiment, potentially determining whether the market remains overall bullish or requires even more of a corrective move. The 5200 level could be pivotal. It has previously acted as resistance and now functions as support. Even if a breakdown occurs below this level, support could be anticipated at the 5100 level or the 50-day SMA.
GJWEEKLY
Spinning tops at the current price (190.60), therefore we wait.
DAILY
190.00 looks to be the rejecting price, we are moving up.
4H
190.60 is a strong level we bounced of and had candlestick confirmation to the upside.
1H
191.30 is where we are anticipating
15min
190.40 was our resistance and turned into our support
GBP/USD: Bearish Sentiment Persists Ahead of Easter BreakClosed the trading session before the Easter weekend, the GBP/USD pair is seen hovering around 1.2617, encapsulated within a prevailing bearish sentiment. Similar to the EUR/USD, the pair remains within an accumulation range, suggesting a possible Triangle pattern for enthusiasts of technical analysis. Notably, it is trading below both the 21 and 200 Moving Averages on the H4 timeframe, underscoring the strength of the bearish trend.
Inflation in the US saw a marginal uptick to 2.5% annually in February, according to the PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge for tracking inflation. This modest increase from January's 2.4% met market expectations. Meanwhile, the index recorded a 0.3% rise from the previous month, slightly below the forecasted 0.4%. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, also experienced a 2.8% annual increase, aligning with predictions, with a monthly uptick of 0.3%. The upward revision of January's core PCE figures signals ongoing inflationary pressures, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates.
With upcoming employment data expected to play a crucial role in shaping future policy decisions, the timing and extent of rate adjustments remain uncertain.
Considering these factors, our analysis leans towards a bearish continuation for the GBP/USD pair, with a potential downside target identified at 1.25315.