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Fundamental Market Analysis for October 31, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair continued to decline to the 1.29550 level in the early Asian session on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) is declining following the UK budget announcement. Later on Thursday, attention will shift to US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data. The UK's New Labour government released its first budget on Wednesday, which includes a GBP 40 billion tax hike to plug a hole in public finances and allow investment in public services, CNBC reported. One of the measures that is projected to bring the most revenue to the UK's coffers is an increase in the amount employers pay in National Insurance (NI), a payroll tax. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter came in below expectations. ADP's October employment change report showed that private companies hired more people than expected. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders estimate the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut at the November meeting at nearly 95.2%. The release of US PCE inflation data on Thursday may provide some hints on the size and pace of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Core PCE is expected to rise 0.2% m/m in September, while core PCE for the same period is expected to rise 0.3% m/m. The softer-than-expected result may raise hopes for deeper rate cuts and put pressure on the US dollar. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.29500, if the level is fixed below we consider Sell positions, if the level rebounds we consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 28, 2024 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair started the new week on a weaker note and is trading around 1.29600-1.29550. Spot prices, however, remain within striking distance of the lowest level since August 16, near 1.29000 reached last week, and appear vulnerable to an extension of the month-long downtrend amid a bullish US Dollar (USD). On Friday, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that U.S. Durable Goods Orders fell 0.8% in September, which was slightly better than expectations of a 1% decline. Additional details of the report showed that new orders excluding transportation costs rose 0.4% in the reporting month. In addition, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index hit a six-month high of 70.5 in October, which was better than both the preliminary result and the previous month's reading. This data supports the view that the Fed will continue to moderate rate cuts throughout the year, which in turn triggers a new rise in US Treasury yields and continues to support the dollar. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, is weakened by rising bets on further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) in November and December, backed by a drop in the UK Consumer Price Index to its lowest level since April 2021 and below the central bank's 2% target. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair lies to the downside. Even from a technical perspective, recent repeated failures near the psychological 1.30000 mark support the prospects of a continued decline from the 1.34350 area, or the highest level since February 2022, reached last month. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPU/USD Shorts from 1.30200 continue trend!GU Analysis Breakdown: This week, my GU analysis centres on the idea that price will continue to follow its bearish trend. With a recent structure break to the downside, price has left behind a clean, unmitigated supply zone. I’ll be watching for a retest in this area as an opportunity to catch potential sell positions. If price revisits the 10-hour demand zone I’ve marked, I’ll also be open to a potential bullish reaction there. Should this demand fail, I’ll look for a deeper mitigation at the next demand level below. Confluences for GU Sells: - The DXY has been very bullish, signalling a continued downward bias for GU. - GU has maintained a bearish structure, aligning with this pro-trend idea. - An untouched supply zone offers a key area for potential sell entries. - Significant liquidity below, providing additional targets. - The 1-hour supply is positioned at the psychological level of 1.30000. P.S. There’s a strong pool of liquidity above my supply, so if price briefly moves higher to take the trendline liquidity, it wouldn’t be surprising. Stay diligent, and have a great trading week, everyone!
Short
by Hassan_fx
Fundamental analysis of the market for 16.10.2024 GBPUSDGBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.3065 today, although it lacks bullish confidence. The release of the UK Consumer Price Index news event weakened the Pound against the Dollar. Ahead of the key data release, speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may move to accelerate its rate cut cycle continues to undermine the British Pound (GBP) and act as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. That said, the moderate decline in the US Dollar (USD) is providing some support to the currency pair and helping to limit the downside. From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action can still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase amid the recent pullback from the 1.3435 area, or the highest level since March 2022, reached last month. In addition, the oscillators on the daily chart are holding in negative territory and are still far from the oversold zone. Trading recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD Fluctuates in a Narrow Range Amid Economic DataOn Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair traded within a narrow range between 1.3077 and 1.3080, showing a slight rebound from a demand area. Despite the modest movement, the market is still waiting for more significant developments before making larger moves. UK Economic Data Supports GBP Stability Earlier on Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released key employment data, which provided some support for the British Pound. The ILO Unemployment Rate for the three months leading up to August eased to 4.0%, down from 4.1% in July. Additionally, Employment Change figures showed an increase of 373K in August, up from 265K in July, indicating continued resilience in the labor market. However, the report also showed a slight softening in wage inflation, as the Average Earnings excluding Bonus dropped to 4.9%, down from 5.1%. While wage growth moderated, the overall labor market data was positive enough to give the Pound some stability in the early session. US Data and Market Outlook The economic calendar is light for the US on Tuesday, with no major data releases expected. The market’s focus will shift to Thursday when the USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are due to be released. These reports are expected to bring more volatility to the GBP/USD pair, as they will provide insights into the strength of the US economy and the potential direction of the US Dollar. Until these data are released, the British Pound may continue to hold onto small gains, but the overall market mood remains cautious. Technical Outlook: Bearish Momentum Ahead? From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD remains under bearish pressure, and we anticipate a potential continuation of this trend. While the pair has found some temporary support around the current levels, we expect the bearish momentum to continue until the pair reaches a more solid demand zone around the 1.2800 level. Until the pair approaches this level, we are refraining from opening any new positions, waiting for more clarity on market direction and potential retracement signals. Conclusion GBP/USD is holding steady in a narrow range as UK labor market data provides temporary support. However, the overall outlook remains cautious, with the potential for further bearish pressure. Investors should keep an eye on Thursday’s US data releases, which could trigger more significant movements in the pair. For now, we are waiting for GBP/USD to reach a stronger demand area before considering any new positions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 11, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair is unable to capitalize on a modest rebound from the 1.30200 area or one-month low and has been fluctuating in a narrow range during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices are currently hanging around the mid-1.30000 area, unchanged for the day, and seem vulnerable to a continuation of the recent corrective decline from the highest level since March 2022 reached last month. US initial jobless claims data released on Thursday pointed to signs of weakness in the US labor market and suggested that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to cut interest rates. This kept the US Dollar (USD) on the defensive below its highest level since mid-August and provided some support for the GBP/USD pair. Nevertheless, investors seem to have already fully appreciated the possibility of more aggressive Fed policy easing. These expectations were confirmed by the minutes of the September FOMC meeting and stronger than expected US consumer inflation data. In addition, persistent geopolitical risks associated with ongoing conflicts in the Middle East serve as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar and limit GBP/USD growth. From the latest developments: the Israeli army claimed to have killed the top commander of the Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad in the Nur Shams refugee camp in the occupied West Bank. This, as well as market confidence that the Bank of England (BoE) may be about to accelerate its rate cut cycle, could continue to undermine the British Pound and keep the currency pair under control. Market participants are now awaiting the release of UK macroeconomic data, including monthly GDP, to provide some momentum. However, the focus will remain on the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which will be released later in the North American session. In addition, on the economic front, the US will release preliminary data on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. This data, along with the speeches of influential FOMC members, will stimulate demand for the US dollar and allow traders to take advantage of short-term opportunities in the GBP/USD pair on the last day of the week. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Market Fundamental Analysis for 8 October 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair attracted some buying during the Asian session on Tuesday and so far seems to have broken a five-day losing streak, hitting a near four-week low near 1.31600 reached the previous day. However, spot prices are unable to consolidate above the 1.31000 mark, causing bullish traders to be somewhat cautious. Investors remain concerned that tensions in the Middle East could escalate into a larger conflict. In addition, not-so-optimistic comments from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) overshadowed the recent optimism from China's stimulus measures and curbed investors' appetite for risky assets. This is evidenced by the overall weak tone in equity markets, which in turn could help drive inflows into the US Dollar and constrain the GBP/USD pairing. Meanwhile, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that there is a possibility that the central bank could become more aggressive in cutting rates if there is further good news on inflation. This could help limit British Pound (GBP) gains and suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair lies to the downside. As such, any further upward movement could be seen as a selling opportunity and risks quickly coming to naught. On Tuesday, no market-important economic data will be released from either the UK or the US, so the dollar and the GBP/USD pair will depend on the Fed's words. Meanwhile, attention will be focused on the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. It will be followed by data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US, which will play a key role in stimulating demand for the dollar and will give a new impetus to the currency pair. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.31000, when fixing above it consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD Bearish weakening, potential buys from 1.30500This week looks promising for my type of setups, with both sell and buy opportunities presenting decent prospects. I’ll be waiting for high-quality lower time frame confirmations before taking any trades. Depending on which point of interest (POI) gets hit, I’ll adjust, but ideally, I’m looking to sell from the supply zone down toward the demand zone. Once price reaches the 15-hour demand zone, I’ll shift to looking for buy opportunities, targeting the imbalances above and the untouched Asian session highs. Although the overall trend is bearish and sells look favorable, I plan to wait for a mitigation of the higher supply zones around 1.32500 before committing to any shorts. Confluences for GU Buys: - The refined 15-hour demand zone has caused a CHOCH to the upside. - There are significant imbalances and liquidity above that need to be filled. - For price to retrace to the supply zone, it must first move upward. - The US Dollar Index (DXY) is sitting in a strong supply zone, which could trigger a drop in the dollar, supporting bullish momentum for GU. Note: If the buy scenario doesn’t play out as planned, I’ll wait for a strong supply zone to sell from and continue the bearish trend. However, given that price is already in a higher time frame demand zone, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upward push as early as Monday.
Long
by Hassan_fx
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 2, 2024 GBPUSDGBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair remains weak after losses recorded in the previous session, trading near 1.32800 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The decline could be attributed to risk aversion due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which is undermining the risk-sensitive Pound Sterling (GBP) and the GBP/USD pair. Iran launched more than 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday, shortly after the US warned a strike was imminent. The Israel Defense Forces said several missiles were intercepted and one person was killed in the West Bank, according to Bloomberg. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Iran after Tuesday's missile attack. In response, Tehran warned that any retaliatory strike would cause “immense destruction”, raising fears of the possibility of a wider conflict. The US Dollar (USD) is receiving support from the latest speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell stated that the central bank will cut interest rates gradually over time. Fed Chairman Powell added that the recent half-point interest rate cut should not be seen as a sign of similarly aggressive action in the future, noting that upcoming rate changes are likely to be more modest. On Tuesday, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Megan Green warned that a recovery in United Kingdom (UK) consumption could trigger a new wave of inflation. However, Green noted that further interest rate cuts are likely as prices are “moving in the right direction,” Bloomberg reported. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.33000, if it is fixed above consider Buy positions, if it rebounds consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD Longs to Shorts. Bullish pressure weakens...I expect price to push a bit higher to reach the weekly supply zone above. However, since price hasn’t fully broken structure and has instead swept liquidity at the Asian session high before dropping back down, this weakens the validity of the 7-hour demand zone I previously marked. Given the failure to break structure to the upside, I wouldn't be surprised if price starts to decline. I’ll be watching for it to reach the 6-hour demand zone around 1.32000, where I’ll look for new buy opportunities. Confluences for GU Longs: - Price has left a clean 7-hour demand zone, which could trigger a bullish reaction. - The overall higher time frame trend is bullish, making this a pro-trend idea. - There’s significant liquidity to the upside, along with an unmitigated weekly supply zone. - The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains bearish, aligning with the bullish outlook for GBP/USD. Note: If price reaches the supply zone above, I'll also be looking for a potential reversal, which could present a strong sell opportunity. With NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) this week, be on the lookout for any significant moves.
Long
by Hassan_fx
GBP/USD Longs from1.32000 back up This week's analysis for GBP/USD (GU) focuses on a potential retracement back to the 6-hour demand zone I've identified. Currently, the price is at one of my points of interest (POI) from last week, and we're already seeing signs of rejection. This suggests that the price may start moving downward from its current level. We’ll wait for mitigation at the demand zone before considering long positions again. However, if the price breaks through the supply zone and continues upward, there's an unmitigated weekly supply zone that could trigger a reversal. We'll have to monitor this, but for now, I’m aligned with the current bullish trend and hope to see a retracement, providing an optimal entry for buys. Key confluences for a potential GU buy: - The price has broken significant structure to the upside, indicating a desire to continue upward. - There’s a clean, unmitigated 6-hour demand zone, my main point of interest for potential long opportunities. - This analysis is in line with the prevailing bullish trend we're observing. - The dollar is showing bearish tendencies, which further supports a bullish outlook for GU. P.S. If the price suddenly drops and breaks through the demand zone, we can expect a major reaction at that level.
Long
by Hassan_fx
GBPUSD: Momentum Waning - Mid-Level Test Expected Soon!A bit late to this one, but if the price moves back above the breakdown area, I’ll consider taking a short position. There’s significant weakness against the dollar in most pairs. This could be short-lived, but it looks like this one might be rolling over for good, at least down to the mid-level. A conservative target is 1.2950. If things go as expected, we could comfortably trade in the 1.27 range within the next week or two.
Short
by ZelfTrade
GBP/USD Sell to buy idea from 1.32000 to 1.30400GU Analysis for This Week: My outlook on GU this week largely depends on how the market opens. If the price moves downward and breaks structure by taking out the liquidity at the swing low, I expect a retracement to the 12-hour demand zone. In this scenario, the 10-hour supply zone I marked would become more valid, although there is also a possibility that price could move there first. This would lead to an initial sell-off, to ride the price down until it fills the imbalance just above the demand zone. Once price reaches this point, it would fill a level of imbalance, potentially triggering stronger buying pressure. Confluences for GU Sells: - The price has been forming lower lows and lower highs. - There is an imbalance below that needs to be filled, along with a demand level. - A 10-hour demand zone was left untouched by the NFP news event. - There is significant liquidity below, providing clear target levels for take profit. - This analysis aligns well with the dollar index (DXY) chart. Note: If the price invalidates the current supply, my ideal scenario would be for the price to reach the 11-hour supply zone at the very top, as it offers a more premium level to sell from. Have a great trading week, everyone!
Short
by Hassan_fx
GBP/USD long possibilities from 1.31000 back upMy analysis for GBP/USD (GU) looks promising for both buy and sell opportunities. With the recent shift in market character to the downside and a break of structure, we may see the price entering a downtrend. However, there are key zones lined up that could support either scenario. Currently, the price is approaching a significant demand level at a psychological point, which may influence the market direction. I'm planning to watch for a slowdown and accumulation in my zone around mid-week, aiming to buy from the 18-hour demand zone. Once the price enters this zone, I'll monitor the lower time frame for a character change to the upside for a precise entry. Confluences for GU buy opportunities include: - The higher time frame has been bullish, with a break of structure to the upside. - A clear 18-hour demand zone has been established, which also caused a break of structure to the upside. - There's substantial liquidity to the upside, including untouched Asian session highs. - This aligns with the higher time frame trend, making it a pro-trend trade setup. P.S. If the price retraces upwards, there is a 5-hour supply zone that previously broke structure to the downside, which could provide a good opportunity to continue the short-term bearish trend.
Long
by Hassan_fx
GBP/USD Shorts from 1.32600 for retracement My expected analysis for the week is that price will slow down at market open and potentially sell off from the 16-hour supply zone. Once price enters this zone, I will wait for an Asia high sweep and look for distribution on the lower time frames. If price breaks through this supply zone, there is an 18-hour supply zone where price might react. However, since this is a counter-trend trade idea, I expect price to retrace from this bias, allowing me to eventually buy from either the 4-hour supply zone or the 18-hour supply zone. Confluences for GU Sells are as follows: - Price has been very bullish, so a retracement is needed to sustain the upward movement. - The recent price action has been very parabolic, leading to unhealthy price behavior. - There are imbalances and liquidity below that need to be filled. - The 16-hour supply zone presents a potential opportunity for short trades. P.S. If price doesn't tap into the supply zone, I'll wait for it to come down to a demand zone before looking for buys to rejoin the trend. Have a great trading week, guys!
Short
by Hassan_fx
GBP/USD Longs from 1.2700 back up to supplyI'm eyeing a long opportunity for GU at the 5-hour demand zone around 1.2700. The price has changed character to the upside, leaving a clean, unmitigated demand zone with a small imbalance above. While price might dip into a supply zone or move up to mitigate the 22-hour supply zone for a potential sell-off, I’m more inclined to see it return to the demand level for a possible buy, targeting the Asia high and liquidity above. Confluences for GU Buys: - Price shifted to the upside, leaving a clean 5-hour demand zone. - Imbalance above the demand zone that needs filling. - Significant liquidity above, including the Asia high and trend line. - Bearish pressure seems to be weakening. P.S. If price breaks the demand zone, it will confirm a stronger bearish trend, and I’ll wait for a new supply zone to join the trend. Have a great trading week, everyone!
Long
by Hassan_fx
1
GU Shorts from 1.28600 back downThis week, GU is expected to align with its bearish trend. Following the recent downside structure break, I anticipate a retracement back up before continuing lower. Once price reaches the 22-hour supply zone, I will look for distribution on the lower timeframe to confirm the continuation of the bearish trend. If price continues to drop and hits the 9-hour demand zone, I will monitor for accumulation signals to potentially buy back up in the short term, targeting the nearest supply zone. Given the significant liquidity on both sides, I will proceed with caution. Confluences for GU Sells: Structure Break: Price has broken structure to the downside, establishing new supply zones. DXY Correlation: The bullish outlook on the DXY supports the bearish GU bias. Liquidity: There is substantial liquidity to the downside that remains untouched. Trend Consistency: Both higher and lower timeframes show a bearish trend. P.S. I am focusing on sell opportunities this week, as the current trend remains bearish. With minimal news impacting the market, trading conditions appear favorable.
Short
by Hassan_fx
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 1, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair is unable to capitalize on the positive movement following the FOMC meeting and is fluctuating in a narrow trading range during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices are currently trading around the mid-1.28000s, almost unchanged for the day as traders prefer to take a wait-and-see approach in anticipation of the Bank of England (BoE) policy update. Signs that global inflationary pressures are easing have fueled speculation that the UK central bank will cut interest rates later today. In fact, financial markets estimate the likelihood of the Bank of England cutting rates from a 16-year high of 5.25% to be more than 65%, and expect another quarter-point cut before the end of the year. This, in turn, will help to strengthen the British Pound (GBP) and boost the GBP/USD pairing. However, investors are far from confident that the Bank of England will take immediate action as UK services inflation remains uncomfortably high. This, in turn, is deterring traders from placing fresh directional bets on the GBP/USD pair and resulting in a subdued range of price action. As such, the focus will be on the accompanying monetary policy statement and comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at the post-meeting press conference. Ahead of a key central bank risk event, the US Dollar (USD) selling bias following the FOMC meeting continues to provide some support for GBP/USD and should help limit the downside. The US central bank acknowledged recent progress in inflation and a cooling in the labor market. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the likelihood of a rate cut soon if inflation remains in line with expectations and led to a decline in US Treasury yields. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 29, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair is trading on a stronger note around 1.28750 in the early hours of European trading on Monday. The dollar's decline amid hopes of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September is providing some support to the major pair. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will be published on Wednesday, no changes in the rate are expected. Most analysts and traders expect the Fed to leave the interest rate unchanged at its next meeting on Wednesday. The U.S. Federal Reserve may signal this week that an interest rate cut is around the corner, although many expect it to hold rates steady until its next rate decision in September. Investors now see the first rate cut coming by mid-September, estimating a 100% Fed rate cut of at least a quarter percentage point by then, according to CME FedWatch Tool data. Traders will also be watching the FOMC press conference closely for new stimulus. A dovish FOMC tone could undermine the US Dollar and create a tailwind for GBP/USD. As for the British Pound, the Bank of England may cut interest rates at its August meeting on Thursday, which would be the first rate cut since 2020. Markets are predicting a 50% probability of a quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, although opinions are divided on whether the cut will happen now or at the next meeting in September. Trading recommendation: Trade in the 1.28400-1.28850 channel on a bounce from the levels.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD Shorts from 1.29200 back downI am looking for sell opportunities in GBP/USD. Recently, the price dropped and broke structure to the downside, indicating a bearish trend. To capitalize on this move, I expect a retracement back to our marked points of interest (POIs). Once the price retraces to these POIs, I'll be watching for a Wyckoff distribution pattern on the lower time frame to initiate sell positions. There’s significant liquidity below, making this a pro-trend idea that aligns with my bullish dollar bias. Confluences for GU Sells: Trend Formation: Price is forming lower lows and lower highs. Supply Zone: A 5-hour supply zone caused the recent break of structure. Liquidity: Significant liquidity below in the form of trend lines and Asia lows. Dollar Strength: DXY (Dollar) is bullish on the higher time frame, supporting this pro-trend trade idea. P.S. If the price continues to drop without tapping into my supply zone, I will wait for it to reach the 17-hour demand zone and look for buy opportunities back up. However, I am more inclined toward sell positions.
Short
by Hassan_fx
1
GBP/USD Shorts are becoming more dominant? GU sell opportunities are looking increasingly favorable as the dollar continues to rise. We now have some high-quality supply zones, specifically the 19-hour and 4-hour zones. If the price breaks the nearby low and structure again, the 2-hour supply zone I’ve identified will become more valid. Since the price is not near any of my high-time-frame points of interest (POIs), if it keeps falling, I expect the imbalances to be filled and the demand zones to be mitigated. Ideally, we will see a reaction from the 3-hour or 17-hour demand zones. Confluences for GU Sells: The dollar is bullish, indicating GU should trend downward. Valid supply zones are forming, presenting potential bearish trade setups. There are numerous imbalances and liquidity below that can be targeted. The price has changed character and broken structure to the downside on the higher time frame. P.S. I will closely monitor the price action throughout the week and adapt accordingly. It appears that a sell position is becoming more likely due to the Wyckoff distribution observed on the high time frame.
Short
by Hassan_fx