Pounddollar
GBPUSD - SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE ANALYSISHi traders.
Whenever you are looking at a technical level, always ask yourself the following:
- Am I buying at a potential bargain/wholesale/discount price? (supply or demand zones)
- Why is there more likely to be more supply/demand orders at that area? (new traders entering/traders taking profit at horizontal, diagonal & dynamic support/resistance areas)
- What are the underlying fundamental/sentiment drivers that should push price in my favour? (interest rates, business cycle, risk on/risk off)
If all 3 are in your favour, take the trade, manage your risk and go for more than you've risked.
Always remember this trade is only 1 trade in the next thousand you're going to take.
Process over outcome!
Speaking about the pound again: nothing personal, just facts.Since the dust has slightly settled after yesterday’s madness, it’s time to take stock. Let's start with what was on the surface. Several ministers of the British Cabinet of Ministers (Dominic Raab, Minister for Brexit, and Minister of Labor Esther McVeigh) have resigned as a sign of disagreement with the current draft of the treaty. As a result, the pound crashed by more than 300 points in a pair with the dollar, and the market covered a shuttlecock of panic. As a result, the main event of yesterday passed by the markets.
And now to voice out loud about analytics do not talk really (it’s not permissible in their environment to talk about positive trends for the pound while it collapses), although this is more important than slamming the doors by certain people. After a five-hour meeting, the UK Cabinet approved a draft agreement on conditions for a country to leave the European Union.
In total, what do we have for now in terms of progress on Brexit:
- “draft” agreement between the EU and the UK - done! (last week only dreamed about it);
- approval of the deal by the Cabinet of the UK - done! (last week they didn't even dream about it).
What has not been done yet:
- approval of the deal by the Parliament (based on the current situation, events should evolve as follows: the November 25 summit with the EU, after which the UK Parliament will take up the treaty, and they must finish before December 20, so the deadlines are more or less clear).
As we see, according to formal criteria, 2/3 of the path is passed. And the current price of a pound is the same as it was when the markets did not even believe in the possibility of a basic agreement with the EU.
Therefore, there has been a severe fundamental divergence - events develop while prices stand still. As in the case of technical divergences, working off is usually the following: the price admits it is wrong and begins to catch up.
Once again, we note that Brexit and the negotiation process associated with it have created a situation that is quite unique in the foreign exchange market. In our opinion, the markets misjudge what is happening, and the pound is very much undervalued. So, there are great opportunities for its purchases. Recall that in the spring, when the majority believed in an agreement between the EU and the UK (but then, unlike the current time, there was not even a hint of a deal), the pound fluctuated around 1.41-1.43. That is, the divergence size is 1000-1500 points. Working it out is inevitable, at least, unless some overt force majeure happens.
Key daily level holding resistance GU wicks have been crazy, but we cannot ignore the fact that it has failed to close the 4 hour candles above key daily level, that keeps my interest peaked for a short, now that brexit hype is over and DXY is hovering around support.
Targets are clearly marked, entry for a short at key daily level marked in red and stop loss is flexible for me. I would like to see a 4 hour candle close above the red block in order to close my short
GBP/USD PART 2: 4H view, SHORT coming this weekThis is a zoomed in follow-up on my GBP/USD PART 1 setup.
Last week we got rejected pretty hard, failed to make a higher high, dumped and formed this red block on the 4H which should now act as resistance.
I'm expecting the week to open with some further dumping(not worth playing), possibly into the lower red 4H breaker, retrace back into the higher one, and proceed to sell off to the weekly breaker I outlined in PART 1.
Make sure to read PART 1 first to know the higher time frame basis for this setup:
GBPUSD - H4 - SHORT SETUPGbpUsd - H4 - After fomc I saw dollar index creating new demand which I anticipated to be retested next week. I see all major currencies creating new supply zones for us to sell from. This pair is also trading below a weekly resistance and for next week I see a good pending sell setup to sell this pair down to 1.28 and possibly down to 1.25 in the coming weeks.
BULLISH REVERSALThe aggressive break on the bearish trendline followed by a high momentum bullish rally is enough to form an idea for a bullish reversal.. And on top of that we have a pullback to the previous resistance turned support.. we should just be looking out for a confirmation in a form of a candlistic pattern, Ideally on 1H time frame.
GBPUSD Intraday ForecastAs we forecast uptrend for this day, so Forecast City suggests buy (limit) above S1=1.2725.
But the short term forecast is range bound, so we expect to reach the following targets:
TP3: R1=1.2815.
TP4: R2=1.2845.
Set the stoploss of these orders at breakout of S2=1.2695.
Stop and reverse:
If trend gets reversed, sell (stop) orders will be opened at breakout of S2=1.2695.
In this situation, there is an expectation to reach the target S3=1.2595.
Set the stoploss of reverse orders at breakout of S1=1.2725.
If you would like to trade in the next 24 hours , the intraday forecasts of ForecastCity will show you the most accurate and the most likely actions and swings of the market. Our intraday forecasts are available before those of all the other sites. Our intraday forecasts are available very early in the day. It is one of ForecastCity’s glorious and positive qualities. This quality has made us the first forecaster that forecast tomorrow for you!
ALL OF OUR INTRADAY FORECASTS ARE VALID FOR 24 HOURS FROM RELEASE TIME.
GBPUSD Intraday ForecastAs we forecast downtrend for this day, so Forecast City suggests sell (limit) below R1=1.288.
But the short term forecast is range bound, so we expect to reach the following targets:
TP3: S1=1.28.
TP4: S2=1.275.
Set the stoploss of these orders at breakout of R2=1.292.
Stop and reverse:
If trend gets reversed, buy (stop) orders will be opened at breakout of R2=1.292.
In this situation, there is an expectation to reach the target R3=1.303.
Set the stoploss of reverse orders at breakout of R1=1.288.
If you would like to trade in the next 24 hours , the intraday forecasts of ForecastCity will show you the most accurate and the most likely actions and swings of the market. Our intraday forecasts are available before those of all the other sites. Our intraday forecasts are available very early in the day. It is one of ForecastCity’s glorious and positive qualities. This quality has made us the first forecaster that forecast tomorrow for you!
ALL OF OUR INTRADAY FORECASTS ARE VALID FOR 24 HOURS FROM RELEASE TIME.
GBPUSD Intraday ForecastAs we forecast downtrend for this day, so Forecast City suggests sell (limit) below R1=1.288.
But the short term forecast is range bound, so we expect to reach the following targets:
TP3: S1=1.28.
TP4: S2=1.275.
Set the stoploss of these orders at breakout of R2=1.292.
Stop and reverse:
If trend gets reversed, buy (stop) orders will be opened at breakout of R2=1.292.
In this situation, there is an expectation to reach the target R3=1.303.
Set the stoploss of reverse orders at breakout of R1=1.288.
If you would like to trade in the next 24 hours , the intraday forecasts of ForecastCity will show you the most accurate and the most likely actions and swings of the market. Our intraday forecasts are available before those of all the other sites. Our intraday forecasts are available very early in the day. It is one of ForecastCity’s glorious and positive qualities. This quality has made us the first forecaster that forecast tomorrow for you!
ALL OF OUR INTRADAY FORECASTS ARE VALID FOR 24 HOURS FROM RELEASE TIME.
Double Top? Price could make a double top on a key resistance/pivot area.
We can see a well defined downtrend channel.
If price fails to break resistance, it should look to test the most proximate support; should such support break, a continuation to even lower support areas should occur.
The extension of a bearish impulse would lead to the inferior trendline of the channel.
Best of luck!
GBPUSD short term top in sight?: GU resistance zones on 1h chartJust a quick plot to watch the three zones of interest for possible short entries.
The three zones are in my opinion resistance.
The zone marked with end of Wave (C) is most likely I think.
Barring great news regarding Brexit, I think the bounce is almost done.
Looks like an ABC correction to a down move.
Background:
This is an update to my last short term Idea looking for the dip and bounce
My GU adventure started with a search for top of uptrend around Sept 20th
Then came the big drop, which I caught most of. Then I started looking for bounces to short
After catching a few scalps and a couple big rides down, I was then waiting for a pull back again
During the pullback, I managed to get in a few short scalps but with tight stops
Then, just before NFP, the Pound started getting some good news and showing signs of bullishness so I threw some longs down
Which brings me to the current plan, looking for an ABC correction to end soon
Pound Still Mighty From Dollar SwayAt analysis chart GBP USD H4 above, the price is driven up by the rise of bullish reversal confirmation (orange circle) yesterday. There is a tendency to continue rising to the top of the NenStar harmonic pattern projection (blue line), so that trends will complete forwarding towards the point D.
I suggest to open a buy position in the 1.3040 area, because the H4 continuous bullish candlestick confirmation (orange circle) appears. Profit targets sell in the 1.3140 or 1.3200 area, of course as usual there will be resistance from the buyer. Stop Loss can be in the area of 1.2990.
GBP/USD daily overviewThe British pound depreciated 0.20% against the US Dollar since Friday’s session. On Monday morning, the rate was located above the monthly PP at the 1.3046 mark.
In the near-term future, most likely, the rate will surge upwards to the weekly PP at the 1.3083 mark but will bounce off it due to the resistance of the 55-hour simple moving average. It seems that the British pound will trade at the 1.3040 level during the session.
On the other side, the rate might break the weekly PP resistance and ignore the resistances of the simple moving averages to trade at 1.3100 level on Monday.
GBPUSD - Long for about 200 pips!GBPUSD had a massive sell-off after PM Theresa May's speech. Pound fell for 200 pips and reached 38.2% retracement which coincides as a broken resistance, now acting as support.
Also, a arising wedge is also broken.
My view on GBPUSD at the moment is neutral although slightly bullish. We need to see if price will break through the resistance turned support at around 1.3040-50 or if it will retest the broken rising wedge at around 1.3140.
If price doesn't break support at 1.3040, look to buy and target 1.3140 as TP 1, and 1.3270 as TP2.
Stops must be placed around 1.2980 to give trade some room to breathe.
Feel free to share your charts in the comments!
EURUSD and GBPAUD ideas are also posted.
GBP/USDI'm not messing with this just yet. But I would just like to point out that considering the dollar index is in that channel which can break and can make another shoulder up (possibly small), you may get some trade opportunities on Gbp/Usd. The price action it is making makes me think it may make a running flat, or even possibly a correction for a WXY type pattern. Simplified: The blue is 800MA. The red is 200MA. This is the 4hr chart. You may get a bounce or flat/zig zag between them, or at least an opportunity to get a stop in profit on a sell, or await a pattern for a running flat to buy. It's at the 1.236 extension, but I prefer to catch GU off a big spike out when it is chopping like that so be careful. The 1.618 level lines up with the 800MA, so if it were to shoot up to that level it should at least react I would think. It may make a little sell from right at this fib area but I ain't messing with it. This is more you guys that will be awake during London and you can see where it is at.
GBP/USD daily overviewThe British pound depreciated 0.10 % against the US Dollar. On Monday morning hours, the currency exchange pair was supported by the 100-hour simple moving average, located above the August high at the 1.3100 level.
In regards to the near future, the 55-hour and the 100-hour simple moving averages will move along with the rate giving support for the currency to surge upwards to the upper boundary of the medium ascending line at the 1.3150 mark.
Besides, the rate should not ignore technical indicators during today’s trading session due to absence of Brexit fundamentals.