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Pounddollar

GBP/USD Long to Shorts from 1.27000This week, my plan for GBPUSD (GU) is to buy up towards the 10-hour supply zone. I will wait for a retracement to occur, allowing for a Wyckoff accumulation to form within the demand zone before taking buys, possibly targeting the relative equal highs I have marked. If the price doesn’t retrace deeply and moves straight towards the supply zone, I will look for a Wyckoff distribution to initiate sells. This supply zone is more promising as it's a refined version of the 21-hour zone I marked last week. Confluences for GU Buys are as follows: - Price has left a clean 8hr demand zone that has swept liquidity. - Price has been bullish and this idea is a pro-trend idea. - There is lots of liquidity to target in the form of equal high and Asian high. - There is still an unmitigated supply that needs to get mitigated as well. P.S. If the price doesn't respect the demand zone, it could drop lower due to the imbalance below. In that case, I would look for a deeper demand zone to buy from or wait for the price to change character (CHOCH) to the downside.
Long
by Hassan_fx
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 24, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair is losing momentum to recover near 1.26950 in the early Asian session on Friday. The major pair is declining after pulling back from a recent top near 1.27600 amid renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD). Later on Friday, data on US durable goods orders and Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released. On Thursday, the flash PMI from the S&P Global Composite rose to 54.4 in May from 51.3 in April, beating the market consensus forecast of 51.1. The reading was the highest since April 2022. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in April from the previous reading of 50.0. The services PMI for the same period improved to 54.8 from 51.3 previously. Both indicators were better than market expectations. Rising input prices in the manufacturing sector indicate that inflation may pick up in the coming months, which could prompt the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay an interest rate cut this year. This, in turn, would provide some support for the US Dollar and create a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. On the other hand, the UK CPI inflation report earlier this week caused investors to lower expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut next month. Investors believe that the probability of a first rate cut in August is almost 50%, and a quarter-point rate change will not be fully priced in until November. Trading Recommendation: Watch the level of 1.27000, on the rebound take Sell positions.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 21, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair continues to rally near 1.27100 on Tuesday in the early Asian session. Investors are expecting more catalysts as various Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers are due later in the day. On Wednesday, close attention will be focused on UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and FOMC meeting minutes. On Tuesday, the US dollar trades stable amid the absence of important economic data from the US and the UK. Fed officials remain cautious about the timing of the end of the easing cycle and emphasize the need to hold rates longer to gain confidence that inflation is moving towards target. The minutes from Wednesday's FOMC meeting will take center stage as they may provide some clues as to the future path of interest rates. On Monday, Fed Vice Chairman Michael Barr said the central bank “needs to give our restrictive rate path some more time to continue its work.” Meanwhile, Fed policymaker Philip Jefferson, another permanent voting member of the Fed's rate-setting committee, said inflation continues to fall, though not as fast as he expected. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged at its next meeting in June. Financial markets believe there is a 76% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut in September and two rate cuts before the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The US Fed's wait-and-see stance is likely to lead to a US Dollar (USD) rate hike and could limit the pair's near-term growth. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.27200, on the rebound take Sell positions.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD Shorts from 1.27500 back downMy bias this week is to look for nearby sell opportunities as we approach a strong supply zone on the 21-hour chart. I will wait for a Wyckoff distribution to unfold, likely on Monday or Tuesday, to take sells back down to the next demand zone. Since the equal highs have been swept, I expect the price to slow down and provide a clear entry model for shorts. Despite the current bullish trend, I plan to take these sells down to the next demand zone, where I will look for long positions to continue the trend. Confluences for GU Sells are as follows: - 21hr supply zone has caused a break of structure to the downside and has an imbalance - The overall trend on the higher time frame is bearish and the dollar is also overall bullish. - Price has swept equal high liquidity enough to now break back down. - Bullish pressure is getting exhausted after the bullish rallies we saw last week. P.S. Since the price hasn't yet tapped into the supply zone, I'm also watching for an Asian high sweep, which will further confirm my sell bias. Additionally, we're approaching the psychological level of 1.27500, so it will be interesting to see how the price reacts. Have a great trading week!
Short
by Hassan_fx
Pound Stumbles on Jobs Data, Raising Specter of BoE Rate Cuts The British pound (GBP) took a tumble today after the release of disappointing UK employment data, fueling speculation of a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in June. The data revealed a rise in unemployment for the second month running. March saw the jobless rate reach 4.3%, surpassing the previous month's reading of 4.2% and confirming fears of a slowing British labor market. This setback coincided with wage growth (excluding bonuses) stalling at 6% for the three months ending in March, defying expectations of a slight decline to 5.9%. Yael Selfin, Chief Economist at KPMG UK, believes this uptick in unemployment is likely a precursor to a slowdown in wage growth. She suggests that the UK's recent economic struggles might deter businesses from hiring new employees, consequently leading to a softening of wage pressures in the coming months. This scenario strengthens the case for an imminent interest rate cut by the BoE. With inflation remaining a pressing concern, the central bank is facing mounting pressure to lower its base rate in order to stimulate economic activity. Selfin elaborates, stating that if upcoming data on wage growth aligns with her forecast of a modest increase, insufficient to prevent a downward trajectory in annual pay, it could trigger a more dovish stance within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) ahead of their crucial June meeting. A dovish stance signifies a central bank leaning towards lowering interest rates. Market Response and Unfolding Narrative The pound's depreciation reflects a shift in investor sentiment. The initial optimism surrounding the BoE's hawkish stance on interest rates, intended to combat inflation, seems to be waning. The prospect of a potential rate cut has dampened investor confidence in the pound, leading to its current decline. Uncertainties and the Road Ahead The BoE now finds itself in a precarious position. While inflation remains a priority, the rising unemployment figures present a new challenge. The central bank will need to carefully navigate this complex situation. Key factors to watch in the coming weeks include: • Upcoming Wage Growth Data: If wages confirm Selfin's prediction of a subdued rise, it could significantly boost the case for a rate cut. • The BoE's Rhetoric: The language used by the BoE in its upcoming communications will be closely scrutinized for any hints regarding the likelihood of a June rate cut. • Global Economic Conditions: Broader global economic developments, particularly in the US and Europe, could also influence the BoE's decision. Conclusion The pound's recent slump serves as a stark reminder of the delicate balancing act the BoE faces. The bank's June meeting will be pivotal, with its decision on interest rates potentially shaping the course of the UK economy and the future trajectory of the pound.
Long
by bryandowningqln
GBP/USD BUY TO SELL (up towards 1.26500)This week's analysis for GBPUSD presents promising opportunities based on anticipated price movements. Near current price levels, there's a nearby 4-hour demand zone that could potentially trigger a bullish reaction, although I'm cautious about its strength. However, my primary focus is on the daily supply zone. If price fails to reach the daily supply, it might delve deeper to interact with a stronger demand area, possibly sparking another bullish rally. In such a scenario, I'll align my trades with the prevailing uptrend, considering the recent pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Once price reaches the daily supply zone, I'll be prepared to enter significant sell positions. Confluences for buys are as follows: - Price has recently been in an uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows. - Daily supply zone that needs to get mitigated eventually. - Good demand zones left that price might pick up another bullish rally from. - Liquidity to the upside as well as substantial imbalances that need mitigation. - price has also recently broke structure to the upside once again to confirm the trend. P.S. If price reaches the supply zone without eliciting a reaction from any of my demand points of interest (POIs), I'll patiently wait for a wyckoff distribution to develop on lower time frames before initiating my short positions. Have a great trading week guys!
Long
by Hassan_fx
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 23, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair remains on the defensive near 1.23500, its lowest since mid-November, in Tuesday's early Asian session. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is consolidating above 106.10 as traders await the preliminary S&P Global purchasing managers' index (PMI) data from the US and UK for April. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers agreed that US inflation is slowly declining but remains high. Therefore, the US central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates. Atlanta FRB President Raphael Bostic noted that interest rates will have to be held at a "restrictive level" and may not be lowered until "late 2024." At the same time, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said a longer timeline for rate cuts as progress on inflation has "stalled." Growing speculation that the UK central bank will cut interest rates sooner than the US Fed is putting pressure on the Pound Sterling (GBP). Last week, Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said that progress in UK inflation and a worsening economic outlook would allow the Bank to start its rate cut cycle earlier than previously expected. Investors estimated the probability of a June rate cut at 60%, according to Reuters. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD to 2 dollars per poundThis is also gonna be one of the interesting charts to watch in the coming months or yrs, as the pound is gaining strength against the dollar. So, Based on the chart, you can see that we completed a correction cycle in 01 Sept 22 which had started 01 Oct 07, from there a bullish cycle is expected to start which will lead us to the ATHs. Even Fundamentally, it's not looking good the the America, Biden and his administration are basically messing things up, they are losing confidence, and also not just that, even the war against the dollar might, or in fact is gonna be one of the reasons why we gonna see the expected cycle in play. In terms of my wave count, please have a look on the chart as everything is marked for you and me to see and understand why and how we got to this sentiment. NFA as always. Remember me when this happens as planned. and also don't forget to tell your mates, family about me.
Long
by Theofylrx
4
GBPUSD Quarterly Bull Rally Resumes To New Monthly HighsI am currently long on this pair. I got in earlier today during late Asian session at 1.2468 so I am already up +1R but due to TradingViews “House Rules”, I must put a later entry than this real-time post so a solid second entry would be once price breaks above todays current daily highs around 1.2489. I am going for at least +3R but am willing to take this as far as +6R (“R” is representation of a fixed risk I take, so 1R = 1% risk). Trailing stops will be used along the way with future updates. The pattern that triggered me in along with the solid context was a northbound trend continuation. The prior wave was strong and we’ve seen an acceleration in buying activity in the last 2-3 rallies up. I will get out if price breaches 1.24548 lows because then the trend will be in conflict of either reversing or going into some extended chop.
Long
by bajapips
📈GBPUSD analysis, Weekly insight into price behavior📉FX:GBPUSD OANDA:GBPUSD Hello Traders, please check out my previous ideas. If the Pound stabilizes above the weekly Bollinger midline, the bearish scenario won't be fellfield. In the bearish scenario, the price can fall to the yellow zone. ✌💥If you are satisfied with my analytical content, please share my ideas💥✌ ✍🐱‍👤Otherwise, make sure you leave comments and let me know what you think.🐱‍👤✍ 🤑🍾Thank you for your support. I hope you will gain profit by following my analyses.🍾🤑 CrazyS✌
Short
by CrazyS
2
GBPUSD Trend Analysis - Buy or SellPound was making lower highs and lower lows. Previously GBP rejected from the Resistance x3 times and continue pushing down. Scenarios: 1- Retest the recent Resistance and continue pushing down towards the zone. Also break the zone the form the next lower low to respect the trend. 2- Buying above the top Resistance or Reversal in Trend. Note: Trade according to the scenarios, risk management, account size, and always take entries on Confirmations.
Short
by ChilhoodTraders