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Pounddollar

The when, why, and how sterling reaches parity In just two trading days, the probability that the sterling will fall to parity against the US dollar increased to 60% on Sept. 26 from 32% on Sept. 23 after the UK government's announcement of new tax cuts elevated concerns for the country's economy. Bloomberg estimates that the GBP/USD will have equal value before the end of 2022, based on sterling-dollar implied volatility. The value of the sterling was $1.0350 as of Sept. 26, marking a record low for the currency. Economists believe that the slump in the pound could force UK's central bank to enact another interest rate increase in order to support the currency, The Guardian reported. Capital Economics UK Economist Paul Dales told the paper that the Bank of England could raise interest by 100 basis points or 150 basis points. The weakness in the pound is being exacerbated by fears the UK economy is entering a recession after inflation breached the 10% mark in July, marking a record-high for the country. It elicited a promise from the Bank of England that it will "respond forcefully, as necessary" to curb the growth in the prices of goods and services. The path to parity The downward movement of the sterling follows the UK government's announcement of new tax cuts, fueling the concerns of investors and economists that the four-nation country's debt will reach unaffordable levels and further fuel inflation. It also comes after the Bank of England increased rates by 50 basis points, lower compared with the 75 basis-point hike of the US Federal Reserve. The government intends to finance its tax cuts with debt worth tens of billions in sterling. The UK Debt Management Office is planning to raise an additional 72 billion pounds before next April, raising the financing remit in 2022-2023 to 234 billion pounds. Deutsche Bank UK Economist Sanjay Raja said the tax cuts were adding to medium-term inflationary pressures and were "raising the risk of a near-term balance of payment crisis." Vasileios Gkionakis, a Citi analyst, echoed sentiments that the move will bring the sterling to parity with the US dollar, noting that "the UK will find it increasingly difficult to finance this deficit amidst such a deteriorating economic backdrop; something has to give, and that something will eventually be a much lower exchange rate." "Sterling is in the firing line as traders are turning their backs on all things British," said David Madden, a market analyst at Equiti Capital. "There is a creeping feeling the extra government borrowing that is in the pipeline will severely weigh on the UK economy." If it comes to pass, what then? The implications of the sterling being at parity with the US dollar boil down to how and where the money is being spent. When the euro was at parity with the dollar, there were winners and losers and the same could be expected if ever the sterling is at the same value as the dollar. For trading and exporters, the change in the exchange rate will surely be noticeable. In the US, a stronger dollar would mean lower prices on imported goods, which could help cool down inflation. The opposite could be anticipated for the UK as previous payments would afford lesser products if the two currencies are at parity. Accordingly, US companies doing business in the UK will see revenue from those businesses shrink if they bring back earnings in pounds to the US. However, if pound earnings are used in the UK, the exchange rate becomes less of an issue.
by BlackBull_Markets
GBPUSD longterm viewThe pound should probably be on the verge of a correction to the 1.24 area after the crash of the past few months. However, the final low in the area between 0.90 and 0.94 is still on the agenda to follow this correction. It would also be conceivable that the large correction of 1985 to 2007 represents an x at a higher level. This would intensify the downside potential significantly further and the target on the downside would be between 0.53 and 0.87. However, I am assuming the z scenario, as this is more consistent with the waves on shorter time frames.
Short
by Elliott-Waves-2_0
GBPUSD Long Trade SetupA bullish opportunity recently presented itself on the pound-dollar trading chart. This follows from the bullish harami candlestick pattern which printed just above the 1.14000 psychological level. A stop loss below the same psychological level and a profit target anywhere between your entry and the swing high of 1.22956 could give you a reward-to-risk ratio as high as 5 or even higher. Be sure to size your position based on your trading account balance and apply other risk management measures before placing trades. Rooting for you! Your FX Plug FX:GBPUSD
Long
by charles-okoukoni
Has the news of the Queen affected the Pound? GBP/USD It was announced today that the Queen has passed away today after a 70 year reign. We look at whether this has affected the pound. For GBP/USD the market has not been affected as significantly as traders may have thought, considering the overall negative market sentiment. The pound dollar continues to consolidate within the range indicated with the daily RSI beaten down into oversold territory. Will there be breakouts in the coming days?
G
by BlackBull_Markets
GBP/USD weekly chart: falling wedge headed to 37-year support?The British pound ( GBP/USD ) hit an intraday low of 1.1406, temporarily breaking below Covid-20 lows and hitting the lowest level in 37 years, before recovering to 1.147 as of this writing. The GBPUSD weekly chart reveals intriguing long-term patterns: The major long-term trend is represented by a falling wedge, with the lower support line set by January 2009's and October 2016's lows and upper resistance line by November 2007's and May 2021's highs. The ultra-ten-year falling wedge contains two lateral ranges (May 2009-June 2016 and July 2016-September 2022), both characterised by a similar 20% width. The long-run falling wedge's direction collides with the all-time low and support level of 1.051 hit in February 1985. If 1.14 defines a new multi-year resistance level and a new 20% side range is established, the next long-term support could be as lows as 0.95. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
by Capitalcom
1
GBP/USD - AN UPDATE FROM MY SIGNAL YESTERDAYexited my trade when this candle appeared on H1. My indicator for a bullish exhaustion or also known as 'shooting star' RSI has also formed a bearish divergence on H1 indicating a lost of momentum to the upside. Looking at the structure, price has also formed a double top - bearish price structure Overall, this was a pretty solid trade that we took from yesterday's signal. If you have followed this you would have gotten 2.06RR (70pips) FOR REFERENCE: CLICK ON THE LINK TO RELATED IDEAS DOWN BELOW IF YOU WANT TO SEE THE TRADE SETUP FROM YESTERDAY HELLO, TRADERS! IF YOU LIKE THIS ANALYSIS, PLEASE LEAVE A LIKE AND FOLLOW MY CHANNEL AND LET ME KNOW YOUR THOUGHTS BY COMMENTING DOWN BELOW.
Long
by JuanCrlsTrades
GBPUSD Can Rise As M Pattern Has CompletedTraders, GBPUSD can rise as an FCP M pattern has been completed. However this may not be able to push the price too high as the DXY is still rising and strong. So if you are looking for a smaller bounce then look for a confirmation on this GBPUSD pair and take the entry. On the chart there are 2 arrows which point at the approximate profit targets. Take one step at a time and manage the risk. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
Long
by vikinsa
1