📈GBPUSD analysis, Weekly insight into price behavior📉FX:GBPUSD
FOREXCOM:GBPUSD
Hello Traders, please check out my previous ideas.
This is my first analysis on GBPUSD daily.
If the Pound stabilizes above the yellow zone (crossing the weekly Bollinger midline), the price can climb up to the 1.30 level.
In the opposite scenario, if the price does not follow the conditions of the previous scenario, the price can fall to around 1.2626.
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Poundlong
The when, why, and how sterling reaches parity In just two trading days, the probability that the sterling will fall to parity against the US dollar increased to 60% on Sept. 26 from 32% on Sept. 23 after the UK government's announcement of new tax cuts elevated concerns for the country's economy.
Bloomberg estimates that the GBP/USD will have equal value before the end of 2022, based on sterling-dollar implied volatility. The value of the sterling was $1.0350 as of Sept. 26, marking a record low for the currency.
Economists believe that the slump in the pound could force UK's central bank to enact another interest rate increase in order to support the currency, The Guardian reported. Capital Economics UK Economist Paul Dales told the paper that the Bank of England could raise interest by 100 basis points or 150 basis points.
The weakness in the pound is being exacerbated by fears the UK economy is entering a recession after inflation breached the 10% mark in July, marking a record-high for the country. It elicited a promise from the Bank of England that it will "respond forcefully, as necessary" to curb the growth in the prices of goods and services.
The path to parity
The downward movement of the sterling follows the UK government's announcement of new tax cuts, fueling the concerns of investors and economists that the four-nation country's debt will reach unaffordable levels and further fuel inflation. It also comes after the Bank of England increased rates by 50 basis points, lower compared with the 75 basis-point hike of the US Federal Reserve.
The government intends to finance its tax cuts with debt worth tens of billions in sterling. The UK Debt Management Office is planning to raise an additional 72 billion pounds before next April, raising the financing remit in 2022-2023 to 234 billion pounds.
Deutsche Bank UK Economist Sanjay Raja said the tax cuts were adding to medium-term inflationary pressures and were "raising the risk of a near-term balance of payment crisis."
Vasileios Gkionakis, a Citi analyst, echoed sentiments that the move will bring the sterling to parity with the US dollar, noting that "the UK will find it increasingly difficult to finance this deficit amidst such a deteriorating economic backdrop; something has to give, and that something will eventually be a much lower exchange rate."
"Sterling is in the firing line as traders are turning their backs on all things British," said David Madden, a market analyst at Equiti Capital. "There is a creeping feeling the extra government borrowing that is in the pipeline will severely weigh on the UK economy."
If it comes to pass, what then?
The implications of the sterling being at parity with the US dollar boil down to how and where the money is being spent. When the euro was at parity with the dollar, there were winners and losers and the same could be expected if ever the sterling is at the same value as the dollar.
For trading and exporters, the change in the exchange rate will surely be noticeable. In the US, a stronger dollar would mean lower prices on imported goods, which could help cool down inflation. The opposite could be anticipated for the UK as previous payments would afford lesser products if the two currencies are at parity.
Accordingly, US companies doing business in the UK will see revenue from those businesses shrink if they bring back earnings in pounds to the US. However, if pound earnings are used in the UK, the exchange rate becomes less of an issue.
GBPUSD Gonna Another HighGBPUSD will reclaim next higher liquidity targets, Perhaps 1.181xx. Technically GU created Bullish butterfly pattern in last week, It gonna fly as technical aspect.
Regular Target Profit: 1.181xxx
DISCLAIMER
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
This analysis can change at anytime without any update and it is only for the purpose of assisting traders to make independent investments decisions. We are the only one person who is responsible for our physical, mental health, relationships, success, and money in our lives. So taking a trading or investment risk on the markets based on this idea. You deserve the profit and you are responsible for your potential loss. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information discussed in this idea.
Here i anticipated by price action, please do not consider investment advice, Because i'm not your official financial advisor. The author of this analysis does not accept liability for any loss or damage.
GBPJPY NEW HIGHS INCOMING! BUY AS MUCH AS YOU CAN! GBPJPY poised to go up next week. If the pair plays inside the box, it will bounce backand a possible new highs can be beaten in the next few weeks.
If you are a short term trader or seller, be careful. If you are buying this and itgoes low, just keep on buying on the lower prices.
NFA
GBP/AUD_4H_LongThe higher timeframe bias is bullish. The price is at 0.618 fib level in 4H and also it is on a 4h demand area. In lower timeframes price already started the uptrend and by the LND session, the price will be uptrend due to the coming news on the GBP. The first TP is 1.85830
R/R = 1:2.59
GBPUSD LongLonging the cable. Pound reached the support area I was looking for in the previous post, I expect a bullish run in the next couple of days/weeks. 200EMA and 50EMA crossed in 2h time frame. according to Forex sentiment 63% of the traders are Longing the pair, this is not financial advice but my views on the pair. Make sure to use proper risk management and I wish you a good trading week.
GBPUSD to move higher as third-wave advance still underway £GBPUSD (long-term)
$vs£
As you can see on the chart above, it seems like there’s an ongoing extension in wave (3). Wave 4 might have been in place, so wave 5 of (3) is likely underway. If correct, the market should break the high of wave 3 soon.
The main critical level for this scenario is £1.3484 . Broadly, the market should continue unfolding a bullish impulse for wave ((1)) or ((A)) in the coming weeks.
GBP/USD DOLLAR PRINTING GETS WORSETechnical Overview: - GBP/USD
Check out our previous posted analysis
LAST WEEK ^
Pound had been on a very strong rally, we had been eyeing this very zone for a long time and have called longs for this very reason.
Last week we were getting closer to our target and we mentioned we will be looking for sell offs at this zone bringing us back down to oversold areas.
We were not able to add to our positions due to high pricing, we need to use this as a way of entering on buy opportunities.
Fundamental Analysis -
Dollar Stimulus bill has been passed, this is a 1.9 trillion dollar deal and you know they are printing this faster than the wind. This is good for the stock market, but certainly bad for the DXY and down the line many years from now we will experience the worst inflation because of all this.
Analysis is only 1 piece of the puzzle 🧩
Our analysis is a sentiment for the upcoming week, month.
Use this as a weather forecast, you are the person that has to put on a jacket when it’s raining.
Trade this sentiment based off your own entry strategy at the right time.
Flow with the Devil 😈
Trade with the manipulation👾