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USDGBP hitting down channel support | A good long opportunityIf we see the movement of price action US Dollar / Pound Sterling then it giving easy profits within the channel by hitting bollinger bands support and moving up even most of the times it is not hitting the channel's support but moving up after hitting the bollinger bands. But this time it is hitting the channel's support and the lower bands of bollinger bands both at a time moreover price action is also hitting the 50 simple moving average support, so this time the chances of bullish divergence are more stronger. MACD is still strong bearish and Stochastic is almost entered in oversold but did not give any bull cross sofar therefore I would suggest to wait for MACD to turn weak bearish from strong bearish or for stochastic bull cross then take the long position. I have used Fibonacci sequence to set the sell targets. Sell between: 0.81973 to 0.83048 Regards, Atif Akbar (moon333)
Long
by moon333
4
Falling Wedge Indicates a Break to UpsideWhile a falling wedge is forming over the past few weeks, the UK was just granted an extension until October of this year ensuring that we are all continued to be bored to death by it until then. In all likelihood, there will be a general election before then and perhaps a new government controlled by Jeremy Corbyn. God knows what he'll do with this mess. At any rate, this gives the UK and the pound much breathing room and a new incentive to be long on it which is my new general view of the pair.
Long
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Longer Extension More Likely Than No Deal The EU has made it clear that they are no longer interested in shorter extensions. Therefore, its either no deal or a longer extension which could be many months to almost a year. If this is the case, I would expect a significant rise in this pair as it would significantly alleviate the risk of the UK leaving the EU at all. May never come to fruition and we would likely see a completely new government form relatively soon which may even hold another referendum.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Macron Gains Spanish and Belgian Support for No Deal Brexit Macron convinced the Spanish and Belgians in supporting his stance on not allowing a long extension beyond April 12th, just five trading days away, without a meaningful signal by the UK Parliament in asserting what kind of deal they want to leave the EU. While Macron did suggest a short extension beyond the 12th, it is not clear when this would be. What is clear is that UK PM May will not get her June 30th deadline, but this gives traders little insight on how much time they'll have for another run up to another potential exit date beyond the fact that it will be before June 30th. Another possibility is May 22 which the EU offered May weeks ago, but only if Parliament passed the Brexit deal last week, which it failed to do. The EU said the UK could still seek a longer delay, but one that would likely be many months and require the UK to participate in European parliamentary elections. Again, France would reject this because they too do not want the UK to participate in EU elections as the UKs absence will significantly increase French voting power in the legislative body. So until next week ¯\(°_°)/¯
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Brexit Would Kill UK Economy and Brexit Is Almost HereHavn't made a comment on GBPUSD in a bit mainly since just needed to sit back and see what the developments were. As expected, nothing new has happened while the odds of a no deal Brexit on April 12th are now noticeably higher according to the betting markets. The pound hasn't reflected this reality yet mainly because a deal is priced in. Dramatic volatility will come if there's a no deal. UK stock market would be significantly hit as well. Also the UK will probably go into technical recession in Q3 2019. Bad news for all except those on the right side this trade. From the BBC, "Prime Minister Theresa May said there was now a clear choice between Britain exiting the European Union with a deal or not leaving at all as she tries to find a compromise with the opposition Labour Party." May is so desperate for support on her deal she's gone to Labour which may bring her some votes on the left side of the aisle, but then will probably lose a few more in her own party given the likely promises she will have to make for Corbyn. Meanwhile, EU-based corporations are making plans in case a hard Brexit occurs. All around, we are now in very dangerous territory for an accidental crash out. However, I am still neutral given the fact that there could be a last minute extension even though the French may block this. Again, too volatile for me to trade.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Brexit Just Won’t Go Away; For the Pound, That’s a Good ThingBrexit. Its kind of like a bad tattoo in that it never goes away, yet was almost immediately regrettable. Unfortunately that continues to be the case this week with Prime Minister May meeting with opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn to etch out a deal for the House of Commons to pass her bill which has already been rejected three times. Much ink has been spilled and many black pixels dedicated to the analysis of Brexit and forecast of where things are headed. In spite of this, we know just as much about where we will be on April 12th as we did when the deadline was first announced. Moreover, the price of the pound to the US dollar is now nearly completely divorced from fundamentals and simply trading on the notion that a no deal Brexit will be avoided. But is this the case? And if so, to what degree is a deal priced in? One of the only non-political comments an observer could make on the cable chart to look for those former levels of resistance as support. 1.19 is about the lowest level of support while 1.26 to 1.27 could also be interesting support levels if the price moves down in the aftermath of a Brexit deal as a no deal Brexit would probably test the former levels seen in 2016 and 2017: Vote for the Brexit that promises least; It will be the least disappointing Will the pound break through previous levels of resistance and form them as support, or will it crash 20 percent like the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum? Hard to say at this point as the website oddschecker.com asserts the chances have increased that UK opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn will become the next UK PM. Its shortened to 5-1 at many of the bookies, roughly equal to former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, the Environment Secretary. They are now the expected favorites to replace May after Dominic Raab, a former Brexit Secretary who resigned from the government late last year and is now quoted at around 9-1 and Jeremy Hunt, the current Foreign Secretary, whose odds have drifted out to around 10-1. While the chances of Corbyn becoming Prime Minister continues to go up, it is still yet to be determined if there will be a general election and if the Conservatives can get May to resign as leader as she had promised. The question remains though when any of these potential outcomes would come to fruition, although speculation abounds that it would have to be after an extension to the April 12th deadline. Although the pound has been highly volatile since the British voted to exit the EU in June 2016, it is important to keep in mind that the pair reached a low of 1.18 in October which has since risen to above 1.31.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Pound Euro Sideways Because UK Is Not Yet BrexitingToday markets another important day of voting in the UK House of Commons where Parliamentarians will again cast opinions on the so-called 'indicative votes' all of which failed the first time around. Regardless, the markets certainly do not believe the UK is headed towards a no deal Brexit, but as of right now that is where the UK is heading as a deal is required to be ratified by the House of Commons and agreed by the EU to avoid an accidental crash out of the EU by April 12th. A general election is seeming to gather steam, but both the two main parties are extremely unpopular so it is quite uncertain what the outcome of this would be.  It seems we are on the edge of a constitutional crisis if neither Parliament nor the prime minister can come to any agreement. In that event, we could see a long extension of Article 50 which could be as long as another year. At least, again, this is how financial markets are pricing in the uncertainty. But if that's the case, then the UK will have to organize EU Parliament elections which PM May is fundamentally opposed to. Unfortunately, this forces an almost paralysis by analysis since the uncertainties are so high. The closer we get to April 12th, the more clarity there will be on the future of this issue.  For more, check out anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
GBPUSD Is Severely Overpriced if UK Headed Toward No Deal BrexitWith a clear majority in the House of Commons against a no-deal Brexit, and with members of Parliament holding more votes on alternative plans on Monday, Mrs May asserted that the UK would have to find “an alternative way forward”. She also may attempt a fourth bid for the Commons to pass her bill. Meanwhile, trading of the pound on Friday faced significant volatility as price action swayed violently just to rest at where it started forming a long-legged doji for the day. If the customs union wins then May could run for this deal with the EU. She could also say no and then we have an election or a second referendum. Difficult to say, but this is the direction we are heading. The bottom line is that the trend of no deal Brexit and a customs union seems to be wedging together like a symmetrical triangle. Either way, this will have to break one way or the other. More words here: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
GBPUSD Unsure, But Brexit Votes Edges Closer to No DealWith all of the indicative votes failing in the House of Commons and PM May's deal looking increasingly unlikely to pass, the UK is now in serious jeopardy of an accidental crash out of the EU. The price of the pound does not reflect this pact and incredibly the historic 10-day volatility of the pound has dropped back down to relatively normal levels. I am still neutral to short (officially neutral) and there are several reasons why: 1) The UK still has two weeks for the House of Commons to come together and get a deal done. 2) May's vote could still pass the House of Commons. 3) May giving herself up to fall on her Brexit sword to get her deal passed indicates that is not willing to trade a no deal Brexit for her and the Conservative Party to maintain in power. Beyond these silver linings though, there are many more reasons to either stay neutral: 1) The sheer diversity of outcomes that could occur before April 12 is incredible including no deal, one of the many different versions of a deal, May's deal, a general election, May resigning, a renegotiation of the deal, another referendum, or a vote of no confidence. 2) Some of these are more possible than others, but the scale of the options creates extreme uncertainty. 3) Because of the uncertainty, trades beyond two weeks could be dramatically hit from a move in the opposite direction as a no deal would probably lead to a massive loss while a deal would result in a massive gain. There are even more reasons to be short. Those I will get into as time develops though since my view is increasing moving from neutral/short to short. More to come. If you would like to see some additional analysis, please check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
GBPUSDHello my friends, As you saw my last pound analyse you can remember that we just reach our first long target and after a forming a bearish wedge,dropped,Till now all things was natural and look like it is time to short it again,but when you look at chart more accurate can see we have an IH&S in chart.look at it: It man if we can break neckline,we can easily break this channel and reach to targets like 1.321 ,easy.In other hand we have bullish reversal in RSI and Bullish crossover in MACD,in 4H, too.All of these can say to us that this time is different,but if we can't break neckline(or black dotted line),it can be a sign for another short trade to 1.294,as first target. I will update this idea as soon as i find new sign. Good Luck Peyman A
by Peymana71