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Poundshort

GBPUSD: Momentum Waning - Mid-Level Test Expected Soon!A bit late to this one, but if the price moves back above the breakdown area, I’ll consider taking a short position. There’s significant weakness against the dollar in most pairs. This could be short-lived, but it looks like this one might be rolling over for good, at least down to the mid-level. A conservative target is 1.2950. If things go as expected, we could comfortably trade in the 1.27 range within the next week or two.
Short
by ZelfTrade
📈GBPUSD analysis, Weekly insight into price behavior📉FX:GBPUSD OANDA:GBPUSD Hello Traders, please check out my previous ideas. If the Pound stabilizes above the weekly Bollinger midline, the bearish scenario won't be fellfield. In the bearish scenario, the price can fall to the yellow zone. ✌💥If you are satisfied with my analytical content, please share my ideas💥✌ ✍🐱‍👤Otherwise, make sure you leave comments and let me know what you think.🐱‍👤✍ 🤑🍾Thank you for your support. I hope you will gain profit by following my analyses.🍾🤑 CrazyS✌
Short
by CrazyS
2
GBP/USD analysis: Sterling is no longer supported by gilt yieldsFor most of 2022, currencies were helped by rising yields on short-term government bonds. When looking at the UK bond market, rising gilt yields have reflected expectations of future interest rate hikes by the Bank of England, but ultimately they begin to incorporate more political and fiscal risks into their rate premium. Given the turbulent political climate in the UK over the last two months, the volatility of UK gilts has been exceptionally high. Liz Truss announced her resignation as British Prime Minister on Thursday, following a hectic 45 days in office that included a gilt market crash and a U-turn on her budget proposals. The most recent economic data, meanwhile, continue to paint a gloomy picture. September UK retail sales fell 6.9% year-on-year, a sixth consecutive monthly decline and worse than market expectations of a 5.0% drop. The GfK Consumer Confidence indicator went up a little bit to -47 in October, but it was still close to a record low of -49 in September. The pound is now behaving differently than the yield on 2-year gilts. Rising gilt yields now reflect not only the inflation/interest rate environment, but also the higher investors' uncertainty about the stability of the UK bond market. Episodes of rising gilt yields over the past few weeks have been correlated with a weaker pound. This playbook can be expected to continue in the coming months. If 2-year gilt yields were to surpass the 4% threshold once more, this would likely put downward pressure on the pound, which could eventually test and break below 1.10.
by Capitalcom
The when, why, and how sterling reaches parity In just two trading days, the probability that the sterling will fall to parity against the US dollar increased to 60% on Sept. 26 from 32% on Sept. 23 after the UK government's announcement of new tax cuts elevated concerns for the country's economy. Bloomberg estimates that the GBP/USD will have equal value before the end of 2022, based on sterling-dollar implied volatility. The value of the sterling was $1.0350 as of Sept. 26, marking a record low for the currency. Economists believe that the slump in the pound could force UK's central bank to enact another interest rate increase in order to support the currency, The Guardian reported. Capital Economics UK Economist Paul Dales told the paper that the Bank of England could raise interest by 100 basis points or 150 basis points. The weakness in the pound is being exacerbated by fears the UK economy is entering a recession after inflation breached the 10% mark in July, marking a record-high for the country. It elicited a promise from the Bank of England that it will "respond forcefully, as necessary" to curb the growth in the prices of goods and services. The path to parity The downward movement of the sterling follows the UK government's announcement of new tax cuts, fueling the concerns of investors and economists that the four-nation country's debt will reach unaffordable levels and further fuel inflation. It also comes after the Bank of England increased rates by 50 basis points, lower compared with the 75 basis-point hike of the US Federal Reserve. The government intends to finance its tax cuts with debt worth tens of billions in sterling. The UK Debt Management Office is planning to raise an additional 72 billion pounds before next April, raising the financing remit in 2022-2023 to 234 billion pounds. Deutsche Bank UK Economist Sanjay Raja said the tax cuts were adding to medium-term inflationary pressures and were "raising the risk of a near-term balance of payment crisis." Vasileios Gkionakis, a Citi analyst, echoed sentiments that the move will bring the sterling to parity with the US dollar, noting that "the UK will find it increasingly difficult to finance this deficit amidst such a deteriorating economic backdrop; something has to give, and that something will eventually be a much lower exchange rate." "Sterling is in the firing line as traders are turning their backs on all things British," said David Madden, a market analyst at Equiti Capital. "There is a creeping feeling the extra government borrowing that is in the pipeline will severely weigh on the UK economy." If it comes to pass, what then? The implications of the sterling being at parity with the US dollar boil down to how and where the money is being spent. When the euro was at parity with the dollar, there were winners and losers and the same could be expected if ever the sterling is at the same value as the dollar. For trading and exporters, the change in the exchange rate will surely be noticeable. In the US, a stronger dollar would mean lower prices on imported goods, which could help cool down inflation. The opposite could be anticipated for the UK as previous payments would afford lesser products if the two currencies are at parity. Accordingly, US companies doing business in the UK will see revenue from those businesses shrink if they bring back earnings in pounds to the US. However, if pound earnings are used in the UK, the exchange rate becomes less of an issue.
by BlackBull_Markets
GBP/AUD short IdeaFundamental side of the idea : The AUD by contrast is currently pressured alongside falling Iron prices. If these prices keep falling then AUD will face weakness. The Australian economy exports large amounts of Iron ore, so its price impacts the AUD. On The Other side we are seeing Inflation climbing faster , and Metals are making new High , and that should serve and make AUD strong again . Ultimately, the pound remains sensitive to the trajectory of UK inflation and the Bank of England’s monetary policy. UK inflation jumped to 1.5% in April from 0.7% in the prior month, though remains well below the BoE’s 2% target. There is certainly plenty of scope for the BoE to substantially tighten monetary policy should it view inflation as a threat, a development that could be significantly bullish for the pound. But we still Far away from that . Technical side of the idea : According to the technical analysis of the pair: So far, despite the weakness of the upward Trend , i am seeing a significant weakness on GBP , starting from forming a continuation pattern , to not breaking above some Fib Levels that were critical . P.S : The weak US dollar provides some reason to be Bullish on the Australian Dollar . Thank you . Do Not hesitate to Contact me For any kind of Quist . S.Sadki
Short
by SaraSadki