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Pound Still Taking A Pounding? - Ichimoku GBP/USD Short TradeThe Pound has fallen drastically with all of the Brexit drama unfolding. As May steps down as Prime Minister there will likely be more uncertainty ahead as a deal or referendum waits to be hashed out. I am looking for a rejection here at kijun sen for another chance to sell as we look to take advantage of this goliath bearish trend. If we find that good rejection candle I'll enter a sell and I've drawn out a few targets I'll be aiming for to take partial profit at along the way. However, if we fail to get rejected at kijun or our bearish signs start to change, this setup may become invalidated.
Short
by The808Trader
1
Falling Wedge Indicates a Break to UpsideWhile a falling wedge is forming over the past few weeks, the UK was just granted an extension until October of this year ensuring that we are all continued to be bored to death by it until then. In all likelihood, there will be a general election before then and perhaps a new government controlled by Jeremy Corbyn. God knows what he'll do with this mess. At any rate, this gives the UK and the pound much breathing room and a new incentive to be long on it which is my new general view of the pair.
Long
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Longer Extension More Likely Than No Deal The EU has made it clear that they are no longer interested in shorter extensions. Therefore, its either no deal or a longer extension which could be many months to almost a year. If this is the case, I would expect a significant rise in this pair as it would significantly alleviate the risk of the UK leaving the EU at all. May never come to fruition and we would likely see a completely new government form relatively soon which may even hold another referendum.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Macron Gains Spanish and Belgian Support for No Deal Brexit Macron convinced the Spanish and Belgians in supporting his stance on not allowing a long extension beyond April 12th, just five trading days away, without a meaningful signal by the UK Parliament in asserting what kind of deal they want to leave the EU. While Macron did suggest a short extension beyond the 12th, it is not clear when this would be. What is clear is that UK PM May will not get her June 30th deadline, but this gives traders little insight on how much time they'll have for another run up to another potential exit date beyond the fact that it will be before June 30th. Another possibility is May 22 which the EU offered May weeks ago, but only if Parliament passed the Brexit deal last week, which it failed to do. The EU said the UK could still seek a longer delay, but one that would likely be many months and require the UK to participate in European parliamentary elections. Again, France would reject this because they too do not want the UK to participate in EU elections as the UKs absence will significantly increase French voting power in the legislative body. So until next week ¯\(°_°)/¯
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Brexit Would Kill UK Economy and Brexit Is Almost HereHavn't made a comment on GBPUSD in a bit mainly since just needed to sit back and see what the developments were. As expected, nothing new has happened while the odds of a no deal Brexit on April 12th are now noticeably higher according to the betting markets. The pound hasn't reflected this reality yet mainly because a deal is priced in. Dramatic volatility will come if there's a no deal. UK stock market would be significantly hit as well. Also the UK will probably go into technical recession in Q3 2019. Bad news for all except those on the right side this trade. From the BBC, "Prime Minister Theresa May said there was now a clear choice between Britain exiting the European Union with a deal or not leaving at all as she tries to find a compromise with the opposition Labour Party." May is so desperate for support on her deal she's gone to Labour which may bring her some votes on the left side of the aisle, but then will probably lose a few more in her own party given the likely promises she will have to make for Corbyn. Meanwhile, EU-based corporations are making plans in case a hard Brexit occurs. All around, we are now in very dangerous territory for an accidental crash out. However, I am still neutral given the fact that there could be a last minute extension even though the French may block this. Again, too volatile for me to trade.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
One Good PMI Number Does Not Make A TrendSo many more problems in Europe beyond the fundamentals, mostly political risk. But first and foremost, the fundamentals still trend down. Price action still trends down. Never trade against the trend. This is probably not an inflection point. It could be only if good data continues to come from the EU which the end of the week it did not. If we continue to see upward momentum as next week progresses, then I will be the first to tell you that EURUSD could finally reverse. Brexit also gives much reason to worry, but if there is a long extension then we could see a rally in not only EURUSD, but also cable (GBPUSD) and chunnel (EURGBP).
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Brexit Just Won’t Go Away; For the Pound, That’s a Good ThingBrexit. Its kind of like a bad tattoo in that it never goes away, yet was almost immediately regrettable. Unfortunately that continues to be the case this week with Prime Minister May meeting with opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn to etch out a deal for the House of Commons to pass her bill which has already been rejected three times. Much ink has been spilled and many black pixels dedicated to the analysis of Brexit and forecast of where things are headed. In spite of this, we know just as much about where we will be on April 12th as we did when the deadline was first announced. Moreover, the price of the pound to the US dollar is now nearly completely divorced from fundamentals and simply trading on the notion that a no deal Brexit will be avoided. But is this the case? And if so, to what degree is a deal priced in? One of the only non-political comments an observer could make on the cable chart to look for those former levels of resistance as support. 1.19 is about the lowest level of support while 1.26 to 1.27 could also be interesting support levels if the price moves down in the aftermath of a Brexit deal as a no deal Brexit would probably test the former levels seen in 2016 and 2017: Vote for the Brexit that promises least; It will be the least disappointing Will the pound break through previous levels of resistance and form them as support, or will it crash 20 percent like the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum? Hard to say at this point as the website oddschecker.com asserts the chances have increased that UK opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn will become the next UK PM. Its shortened to 5-1 at many of the bookies, roughly equal to former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, the Environment Secretary. They are now the expected favorites to replace May after Dominic Raab, a former Brexit Secretary who resigned from the government late last year and is now quoted at around 9-1 and Jeremy Hunt, the current Foreign Secretary, whose odds have drifted out to around 10-1. While the chances of Corbyn becoming Prime Minister continues to go up, it is still yet to be determined if there will be a general election and if the Conservatives can get May to resign as leader as she had promised. The question remains though when any of these potential outcomes would come to fruition, although speculation abounds that it would have to be after an extension to the April 12th deadline. Although the pound has been highly volatile since the British voted to exit the EU in June 2016, it is important to keep in mind that the pair reached a low of 1.18 in October which has since risen to above 1.31.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Pound Euro Sideways Because UK Is Not Yet BrexitingToday markets another important day of voting in the UK House of Commons where Parliamentarians will again cast opinions on the so-called 'indicative votes' all of which failed the first time around. Regardless, the markets certainly do not believe the UK is headed towards a no deal Brexit, but as of right now that is where the UK is heading as a deal is required to be ratified by the House of Commons and agreed by the EU to avoid an accidental crash out of the EU by April 12th. A general election is seeming to gather steam, but both the two main parties are extremely unpopular so it is quite uncertain what the outcome of this would be.  It seems we are on the edge of a constitutional crisis if neither Parliament nor the prime minister can come to any agreement. In that event, we could see a long extension of Article 50 which could be as long as another year. At least, again, this is how financial markets are pricing in the uncertainty. But if that's the case, then the UK will have to organize EU Parliament elections which PM May is fundamentally opposed to. Unfortunately, this forces an almost paralysis by analysis since the uncertainties are so high. The closer we get to April 12th, the more clarity there will be on the future of this issue.  For more, check out anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3