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Poundshort

GBPUSD Unsure, But Brexit Votes Edges Closer to No DealWith all of the indicative votes failing in the House of Commons and PM May's deal looking increasingly unlikely to pass, the UK is now in serious jeopardy of an accidental crash out of the EU. The price of the pound does not reflect this pact and incredibly the historic 10-day volatility of the pound has dropped back down to relatively normal levels. I am still neutral to short (officially neutral) and there are several reasons why: 1) The UK still has two weeks for the House of Commons to come together and get a deal done. 2) May's vote could still pass the House of Commons. 3) May giving herself up to fall on her Brexit sword to get her deal passed indicates that is not willing to trade a no deal Brexit for her and the Conservative Party to maintain in power. Beyond these silver linings though, there are many more reasons to either stay neutral: 1) The sheer diversity of outcomes that could occur before April 12 is incredible including no deal, one of the many different versions of a deal, May's deal, a general election, May resigning, a renegotiation of the deal, another referendum, or a vote of no confidence. 2) Some of these are more possible than others, but the scale of the options creates extreme uncertainty. 3) Because of the uncertainty, trades beyond two weeks could be dramatically hit from a move in the opposite direction as a no deal would probably lead to a massive loss while a deal would result in a massive gain. There are even more reasons to be short. Those I will get into as time develops though since my view is increasing moving from neutral/short to short. More to come. If you would like to see some additional analysis, please check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Brexit Vote Could Lead to Potential Upside BreakoutMuch of the trading is focused on ranges as opposed to breakout with follow through potential. Moreover, while technicals are quite insightful to herd psychology, the fundamentals will be driving markets going forward in the next 24 to 48 hours ahead of us. This includes assets mostly affected by ongoing themes, such as the pound (GBPUSD) which has primarily been driven by Brexit. Luckily for those looking for a less choppy trading environment, traders will have significant clarity given to it with the upcoming votes in the House of Commons which will see if Theresa May can exchange her position as prime minister in exchange for other conservative members to vote for her bill that they had already rejected twice. Given reports that members of her party who were once against the bill may be for it like former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, the chances of a no deal Brexit have swung wildly in the other direction away possible hard accidental no deal Brexit towards a potential deal. But if this is not passed, then it is difficult to see Parliament agree upon any deal that the EU would be okay with. In spite of this, most analysts believe that a deal will be done even if the House of Commons does not pass May’s deal. Either way, GBPUSD has priced in a deal and volatility has significantly stalled. For a few more words on the matter and EURUSD, check out anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Pound Sterling Massively Overvalued if No Deal Brexit We are fast approaching a conclusion to the Brexit story. While no deal Brexit chances greatly increased over the past week with a short extension of April 12th, UK Parliament is still weighing over whether or not to pass May's deal, a rejection of which would even further heighten the chances of a no deal Brexit. If the House of Commons can pass May's deal, then a major crisis is averted and pound sterling may trade at higher levels or may stay muted as a deal between the two is largely priced in. If however a deal cannot be concluded and pound sterling dollar is overpriced, then we can expect to see dramatic swings lower in this pair as a no deal Brexit would certainly bring chaos to the foreign exchange and equity markets. The politics of this situation are a bit tricky. Both sides want a deal which incentivizes some amicable conclusion to this. However, such a deal is not necessarily in the offing. Shorter duration trades could be made to the upside, but the politics remain key in price action since economic indicators and technicals are being dominated by the headlines. Much more analysis on how the politics could play out here: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Chances of Accidental No Deal Brexit Increased SignificantlyTraders are now aware of the April 12th deadline and that it will be extended into May if Parliament passes Prime Minister May's deal she made with the EU earlier in the month. However, the last deal she presented to Parliament lost by a staggering 150 votes. That's quite a bit to make up in 20 days. And what traders are probably not pricing in yet is the possibility of a no deal Brexit which the chances of over the past 24 hours just dramatically increased. Chances of accidental no deal Brexit were already elevated before Tusk's ultimatum. Overall, I'm now quite negative on every pound pair. Technicals at the weekly view also suggest GBPUSD is a bit overpriced. Here's more words and charts on the topic if you're interested: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
TVC:BXYShort
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Chances of a No Deal Brexit Just Increased DramaticallyTraders are now aware of the April 12th deadline and that it will be extended into May if Parliament passes Prime Minister May's deal she made with the EU earlier in the month. However, the last deal she presented to Parliament lost by a staggering 150 votes. That's quite a bit to make up in 20 days. And what traders are probably not pricing in yet is the possibility of a no deal Brexit which the chances of over the past 24 hours just dramatically increased. Chances of accidental no deal Brexit were already elevated before Tusk's ultimatum. Overall, I'm now quite negative on every pound pair. Technicals at the weekly view also suggest GBPUSD is a bit overpriced. Here's more words and charts on the topic if you're interested: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
Short
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
May Just Announced Short Extension to the EUThree more months is what's being asked for by May as the UK attempts to muddle its way through this going on three years long political fiasco. I'm sure you're more interested in the technicals, so here's my read: stay away. I won't trade this until there's some sort of a clearer picture of the direction of where Brexit is heading. Right now though, I'm incredibly bearish based on the fact that we are closer to accidentally crashing out the EU with no deal at all than what we are with the UK and the EU coming to an agreement within three months. Imagine if they did come to an agreement that was 1) actually economically sound for both the UK and the EU within three months and that 2) Parliament agreed to vote on. Imagine if that happened in three months after three years of negotiations. It would be the most incredible act of diplomacy, negotiating, and skillful politicking in the history of the UK by far. My friends, I implore all of you to take a look at Bloomberg's story on the Big Brexit Short. I think it may change the way you view trading this pair and the way price action is moving which is by the way, let's be honest, mostly driven by hedge funds. Here's the link to the Youtube video: www.youtube.com its worth the watch.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
GBP/JPY Short- Meltdown into 140.00sBased on Weekly Price action for GBP/JPY we can see that This pair has broken a weekly Major Trendline and Retested the Area with some Choppy Consolidation and Rejection. A 61.8% rejection is also in line with Key weekly levels that also supports the idea that the -27% extension passed 140.00s will be reached. A quick glance over at the BXY will also show some Pound Weakness as well as the Pound Drifts further and further down to key monthly Levels. I will be swing Trading this Trade hopefully down into the 140.00 with Possible Scale in Oppurtunities along the way. #pound #britishpound #gbpjpy
Short
by ScholarGC
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