Get started

Poundsterling

EUR GBP - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The EUR has had a bumpy ride over the past few months. At the onset of the war in Ukraine the EUR tumbled across the board. However, in recent weeks, the persistently high inflation has seen the ECB take a more hawkish turn with the bank confirming at least a 25bsp hike for July and possibility of a 50bsp hike in September. Despite the hawkish policy shift, the concerns over fragmentation in bond spreads like the BTP\Bund spread as well as fears of growing stagflation risks has seen the EUR struggled to hold onto any real hawkish ECB momentum. The ECB did try to comfort spread concerns last week with an ad-hoc meeting and decided to use PEPP reinvestments as a way to calm fragmentation. But this wasn’t enough to calm concerns as reinvestment would amount to about €20 billion per month. However, the bank’s decision was enough to push the BTP\Bund down 50bsp, and if that trend can continue lower it should be supportive for the EUR. The bank did back up their attempts at calming fragmentation fears after their ad-hoc meeting by saying they are looking at introducing an additional ‘tool’ as quick as possible, so markets will be focused on any insights into what that tool might be. Even though growth data has been surprisingly resilient in the past few months, the recession fears ramped up this past week when EU Flash PMIs showed a material deceleration in growth. Incoming growth data will be watched carefully after this and any further signs that the deterioration in growth is gaining momentum should weigh on the EUR. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Geopolitics remains a focus for the EUR, where any possible de-escalation or cease fire in the Ukraine war would open up a lot of appreciation for the EUR. Stagflation fears are high right now for the Eurozone, with growth expected to slow while inflation stays persistently high. Recent PMI data has invigorated recession fears, which means any materially better-than-expected growth data could spark some upside for the single currency. Inflation remains a key focus, which means the incoming Flash PMI prints on Friday will be important for interest rate expectations. A big upside surprise should be positive for the EUR, but there are risks that further upside in inflation which leads to higher rates also leads to further fragmentation risks. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Spread fragmentation remains in focus, and if ECB speak in the week ahead fails to calm fears or walks back on recent hawkish comments it could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. Flash PMIs confirmed growth risks in the EU is very much alive, we expect growth concerns to continue weighing on the EUR and means German & French retail sales will be in focus for the week ahead. Even though we expect EUR upside on big upside surprises for Friday’s flash CPI data, the secondary reaction might be negative. A CPI surprise that sparks further stagflation or spread fragmentation fears could see an initial upside reaction followed by immediate downside afterwards (which means be careful with this one) BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the EUR remains neutral with positive and negative forces in play. On the negative side we have geopolitics, stagflation and spread fragmentation acting as negative drivers. But we also have hawkish ECB policy as a supportive driver. That means our preferred way of trading the EUR right now is taking short-term plays which are driven by clear shortterm bearish or bullish catalysts. The disappointing PMI data does open up a potential narrative change for EURGBP and we are currently positioned for some potential downside in the pair. GBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE The overall bleak economic outlook for the UK, with exceptionally high Inflation and rapidly falling growth have been the biggest negative driver for Sterling. With rising price pressures and falling demand, the risks of stagflation has risen substantially, so much so that the BoE have forecasted a possible recession for the UK economy heading into 2023. At their June meeting the bank followed through with their more moderate approach by hiking 25bsp instead of growing calls of a potential 50bsp hike. The BoE is stuck between a rock and a hard place, right now they have to hike rates to try and fight inflation but by doing so they risk further damaging economic growth as a result. Even though the June statement was dovish, it wasn’t materially more dovish compared to their previous meeting. The price action was a clear warning sign that a lot of negatives has been priced in for Sterling in recent weeks so chasing lower is very risky right now. It also means we would favour upside opportunities on solid bullish short-term catalysts. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Stagflation fears are very high for the UK, with probabilities of recession growing by the week. With so much bad news priced in, incoming news risk is asymmetrical, meaning positive surprises in growth data could trigger bullish reactions. Furthermore, as the UK is facing one of its biggest cost of living squeezes in history, lower-than-expected inflation could counterintuitively be a positive driver for the currency (lower CPI means less stagflation risk). The economy needs help right now, which means any help from the fiscal side will be a positive. Any major fiscal support measures to help consumers (subsidies for energy or tax cuts) could trigger bullish reactions for the Pound. We have BoE’s Bailey and Cunliffe up next week, any overly hawkish comments signalling more aggressive policy than what markets are currently pricing in (see our Rate Tracker for STIR expectations) could trigger bullish GBP reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Monetary policy is a double-edged sword for the GBP. Odds that the BoE has limited hikes left has been a negative driver, but so too is risks that inflation forces them to hike even more and further damage GDP. Further stagflation risks from higher gas prices or CPI prints could trigger bearish reactions. Politics is also in focus, where any attempts to oust PM Johnson by changing no-confidence laws could trigger bearish reactions. GBP is usually sensitive to political uncertainty and anything that raises odds of a snap election should be negative. With UK threats of triggering Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do Brexit is in focus again. For now, markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. We have BoE’s Bailey and Cunliffe up next week, any overly dovish comments signalling less aggressive policy than what markets are currently pricing in (see our Rate Tracker for STIR expectations) could trigger bearish GBP reactions. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the GBP remains fairly bleak right now with the economic prospects and risk of stagflation keeping the currency pressured. Anything that exacerbates stagflation fears is expected to weigh on the Pound and anything that alleviates some of that pressure should be positive. Tactically the GBP has been stretched to the downside, so any new shorts do need to be weary of the risk of some mean reversion as we saw after this past week’s BoE meeting.
by thunderpips
GBP CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE The overall bleak economic outlook for the UK, with exceptionally high Inflation and rapidly falling growth have been the biggest negative driver for Sterling. With rising price pressures and falling demand, the risks of stagflation has risen substantially, so much so that the BoE have forecasted a possible recession for the UK economy heading into 2023. At their June meeting the bank followed through with their more moderate approach by hiking 25bsp instead of growing calls of a potential 50bsp hike. The BoE is stuck between a rock and a hard place, right now they have to hike rates to try and fight inflation but by doing so they risk further damaging economic growth as a result. Even though the June statement was dovish, it wasn’t materially more dovish compared to their previous meeting. the price action was a clear warning sign that a lot of negatives has been priced in for Sterling in recent weeks so chasing lower in risky. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Stagflation fears are very high for the UK, with probabilities of recession growing by the week. With so much bad news priced in, incoming news risk is asymmetrical, meaning positive surprises in growth data (like incoming flash PMIs) could trigger bullish reactions for Sterling. Furthermore, as the UK is facing one of its biggest cost of living squeezes in history, lower-than-expected inflation prints (coming up Wednesday) could counterintuitively be a positive driver for the currency (lower CPI means less stagflation risk). The economy needs help right now, which means any help from the fiscal side will be a positive. Any major fiscal support measures to help consumers (subsidies for energy or tax cuts) could trigger bullish reactions for the Pound. We have lots of BoE speak coming up this week, any overly hawkish comments signalling more aggressive policy than what markets are currently pricing in could trigger bullish GBP reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Monetary policy is a double-edged sword for the GBP. Odds that the BoE has limited hikes left has been a negative driver, but so too is risks that inflation forces them to hike even more and further damage GDP. Further stagflation risks from higher gas prices or CPI prints could trigger bearish reactions. Politics is also in focus, where any attempts to oust PM Johnson by changing no-confidence laws could trigger bearish reactions. GBP is usually sensitive to political uncertainty and anything that raises odds of a snap election should be negative. With UK threats of triggering Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do Brexit is in focus again. For now, markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. We have lots of BoE speak coming up this week, any overly dovish comments signalling less aggressive policy than what markets are currently pricing in could trigger bearish GBP reactions. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the GBP remains fairly bleak right now with the economic prospects and risk of stagflation keeping the currency pressured. Anything that exacerbates stagflation fears is expected to weigh on the Pound and anything that alleviates some of that pressure should be positive. Tactically the GBP has been stretched to the downside, so any new shorts do need to be weary of the risk of some mean reversion as we saw after this past week’s BoE meeting. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a very favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. Furthermore, despite clear warning signals, the BoC has chosen to ignore the negatives and has stayed surprisingly optimistic and hawkish. We’ve missed most of the move higher in the CAD as our bias has kept us cautious, but the risks are still present and with the currency close to 9-year highs (at the index level) we have very little appetite for chasing it higher from here and will be actively looking for opportunities to trade the CAD lower with the right type of bearish catalyst. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalyst that sees further upside Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. With more market participants noticing cracks in the housing markets, a very solid House Price Index print could ease some of those concerns and provide some upside. Even though a lot of tightening has been priced in for the BoC , a big enough surprise in CPI that triggers further hike expectations could provide some short-term support. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. Since a lot of policy tightening has been priced into STIR markets, any negative catalysts that triggers less hawkish BoC expectations (faster deceleration in growth or inflation ) could trigger outsized downside for the CAD. In recent communication, Governor Macklem started to mention some hiccups in housing. A big miss in the House Price index could trigger more speculation of a less hawkish bank and could trigger some downside for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, we remain cautious on the currency, even though it’s move much higher than we anticipated. With a lot of upside priced into the CAD and Canadian yields, our preferred way of trading the CAD would be to look for short-term negative catalysts to trade the CAD lower instead of chasing it higher.
by thunderpips
GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE The overall bleak economic outlook for the UK, with exceptionally high Inflation and rapidly falling growth have been the biggest negative driver for Sterling. With rising price pressures and falling demand, the risks of stagflation has risen substantially, so much so that the BoE have forecasted a possible recession for the UK economy heading into 2023. At their June meeting the bank followed through with their more moderate approach by hiking 25bsp instead of growing calls of a potential 50bsp hike. The BoE is stuck between a rock and a hard place, right now they have to hike rates to try and fight inflation but by doing so they risk further damaging economic growth as a result. Even though the June statement was dovish, it wasn’t materially more dovish compared to their previous meeting. the price action was a clear warning sign that a lot of negatives has been priced in for Sterling in recent weeks so chasing lower in risky. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Stagflation fears are very high for the UK, with probabilities of recession growing by the week. With so much bad news priced in, incoming news risk is asymmetrical, meaning positive surprises in growth data (like incoming flash PMIs) could trigger bullish reactions for Sterling. Furthermore, as the UK is facing one of its biggest cost of living squeezes in history, lower-than-expected inflation prints (coming up Wednesday) could counterintuitively be a positive driver for the currency (lower CPI means less stagflation risk). The economy needs help right now, which means any help from the fiscal side will be a positive. Any major fiscal support measures to help consumers (subsidies for energy or tax cuts) could trigger bullish reactions for the Pound. We have lots of BoE speak coming up this week, any overly hawkish comments signalling more aggressive policy than what markets are currently pricing in could trigger bullish GBP reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Monetary policy is a double-edged sword for the GBP. Odds that the BoE has limited hikes left has been a negative driver, but so too is risks that inflation forces them to hike even more and further damage GDP. Further stagflation risks from higher gas prices or CPI prints could trigger bearish reactions. Politics is also in focus, where any attempts to oust PM Johnson by changing no-confidence laws could trigger bearish reactions. GBP is usually sensitive to political uncertainty and anything that raises odds of a snap election should be negative. With UK threats of triggering Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do Brexit is in focus again. For now, markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. We have lots of BoE speak coming up this week, any overly dovish comments signalling less aggressive policy than what markets are currently pricing in could trigger bearish GBP reactions. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the GBP remains fairly bleak right now with the economic prospects and risk of stagflation keeping the currency pressured. Anything that exacerbates stagflation fears is expected to weigh on the Pound and anything that alleviates some of that pressure should be positive. Tactically the GBP has been stretched to the downside, so any new shorts do need to be weary of the risk of some mean reversion as we saw after this past week’s BoE meeting. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >8%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. STIR markets suggests aggressive policy action pricing a terminal rate of >3.8% by 2Q23 which should be a positive input for the US Dollar . Safe haven flows have also supported the USD as it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Expectations of a cyclical slowdown, accompanied by multi-decade high inflation and synchronized removal of monetary policy stimulus from major economies has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety as economic prospects have deteriorated. Even though US bonds are considered safe havens, the current high inflation has seen a strong stock-to-bond correlation and has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has benefited from the rush to safety. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data (especially inflation ) that sparks further hike expectations, or additionally any comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means any incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices and inflation expectations could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES More recently the USD has reacted more cyclically to incoming data which could suggest markets is shifting from safe haven focus to the rising risks of recession. The worse growth data slows, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad growth data could trigger bearish reactions in the USD despite its safe haven appeal. Tactically the USD is trading at cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is still close prior highs which acted aslocal tops for the USD. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for the Fed to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Thus, any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. But we do want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and growth deteriorates, we are expecting that the weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a higher likelihood of a less hawkish Fed as a result of higher risks of recession. Furthermore, given tactical and CFTC positioning, we would prefer deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs, but shortterm catalyst can still offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend.
by thunderpips
1
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsEUR – The euro slid across the board on Thursday as weaker-than expected German and French PMI data showed that the eurozone economy is struggling to gain traction, prompting traders to trim bets on big rate-hike moves from the European Central Bank. Commenting on the outlook for EURUSD with respect to today’s data, analysts at Reuters explained that “the (PMI) manufacturing/services ratio tends to be a good barometer for pro-cyclical currencies. The ratio has sharply dropped relative to the US. This dynamic is typically consistent with further US dollar resilience. This could be bolstered as recession fears mount.”
by thunderpips
1
GBPUSD: Cable woes continue?!GBPUSD Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.2310 (stop at 1.2375) Buying pressure from 1.2161 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 1.2130 and 1.2015 Resistance: 1.2275 / 1.2410 / 1.2545 Support: 1.2155 / 1.2015 / 1.1840 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE The overall bleak economic outlook for the UK, with exceptionally high Inflation and rapidly falling growth have been the biggest negative driver for Sterling. With rising price pressures and falling demand, the risks of stagflation has risen substantially, so much so that the BoE have forecasted a possible recession for the UK economy heading into 2023. At their June meeting the bank followed through with their more moderate approach by hiking 25bsp instead of growing calls of a potential 50bsp hike. The BoE is stuck between a rock and a hard place, right now they have to hike rates to try and fight inflation but by doing so they risk further damaging economic growth as a result. Even though the June statement was dovish, it wasn’t materially more dovish compared to their previous meeting. the price action was a clear warning sign that a lot of negatives has been priced in for Sterling in recent weeks so chasing lower in risky. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Stagflation fears are very high for the UK, with probabilities of recession growing by the week. With so much bad news priced in, incoming news risk is asymmetrical, meaning positive surprises in growth data (like incoming flash PMIs) could trigger bullish reactions for Sterling. Furthermore, as the UK is facing one of its biggest cost of living squeezes in history, lower-than-expected inflation prints (coming up Wednesday) could counterintuitively be a positive driver for the currency (lower CPI means less stagflation risk). The economy needs help right now, which means any help from the fiscal side will be a positive. Any major fiscal support measures to help consumers (subsidies for energy or tax cuts) could trigger bullish reactions for the Pound. We have lots of BoE speak coming up this week, any overly hawkish comments signalling more aggressive policy than what markets are currently pricing in could trigger bullish GBP reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Monetary policy is a double-edged sword for the GBP. Odds that the BoE has limited hikes left has been a negative driver, but so too is risks that inflation forces them to hike even more and further damage GDP. Further stagflation risks from higher gas prices or CPI prints could trigger bearish reactions. Politics is also in focus, where any attempts to oust PM Johnson by changing no-confidence laws could trigger bearish reactions. GBP is usually sensitive to political uncertainty and anything that raises odds of a snap election should be negative. With UK threats of triggering Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do Brexit is in focus again. For now, markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. We have lots of BoE speak coming up this week, any overly dovish comments signalling less aggressive policy than what markets are currently pricing in could trigger bearish GBP reactions. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the GBP remains fairly bleak right now with the economic prospects and risk of stagflation keeping the currency pressured. Anything that exacerbates stagflation fears is expected to weigh on the Pound and anything that alleviates some of that pressure should be positive. Tactically the GBP has been stretched to the downside, so any new shorts do need to be weary of the risk of some mean reversion as we saw after this past week’s BoE meeting. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >8%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. STIR markets suggests aggressive policy action pricing a terminal rate of >3.8% by 2Q23 which should be a positive input for the US Dollar . Safe haven flows have also supported the USD as it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Expectations of a cyclical slowdown, accompanied by multi-decade high inflation and synchronized removal of monetary policy stimulus from major economies has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety as economic prospects have deteriorated. Even though US bonds are considered safe havens, the current high inflation has seen a strong stock-to-bond correlation and has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has benefited from the rush to safety. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data (especially inflation ) that sparks further hike expectations, or additionally any comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means any incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices and inflation expectations could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES More recently the USD has reacted more cyclically to incoming data which could suggest markets is shifting from safe haven focus to the rising risks of recession. The worse growth data slows, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad growth data could trigger bearish reactions in the USD despite its safe haven appeal. Tactically the USD is trading at cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is still close prior highs which acted aslocal tops for the USD. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for the Fed to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Thus, any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. But we do want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and growth deteriorates, we are expecting that the weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a higher likelihood of a less hawkish Fed as a result of higher risks of recession. Furthermore, given tactical and CFTC positioning, we would prefer deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs, but shortterm catalyst can still offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend.
by thunderpips
2
GBP CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE The overall bleak economic outlook for the UK, with exceptionally high Inflation and rapidly falling growth have been the biggest negative driver for Sterling. With rising price pressures and falling demand, the risks of stagflation has risen substantially, so much so that the BoE have forecasted a possible recession for the UK economy heading into 2023. At their June meeting the bank followed through with their more moderate approach by hiking 25bsp instead of growing calls of a potential 50bsp hike. The BoE is stuck between a rock and a hard place, right now they have to hike rates to try and fight inflation but by doing so they risk further damaging economic growth as a result. Even though the June statement was dovish, it wasn’t materially more dovish compared to their previous meeting. the price action was a clear warning sign that a lot of negatives has been priced in for Sterling in recent weeks so chasing lower in risky. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Stagflation fears are very high for the UK, with probabilities of recession growing by the week. With so much bad news priced in, incoming news risk is asymmetrical, meaning positive surprises in growth data (like incoming flash PMIs) could trigger bullish reactions for Sterling. Furthermore, as the UK is facing one of its biggest cost of living squeezes in history, lower-than-expected inflation prints (coming up Wednesday) could counterintuitively be a positive driver for the currency (lower CPI means less stagflation risk). The economy needs help right now, which means any help from the fiscal side will be a positive. Any major fiscal support measures to help consumers (subsidies for energy or tax cuts) could trigger bullish reactions for the Pound. We have lots of BoE speak coming up this week, any overly hawkish comments signalling more aggressive policy than what markets are currently pricing in could trigger bullish GBP reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Monetary policy is a double-edged sword for the GBP. Odds that the BoE has limited hikes left has been a negative driver, but so too is risks that inflation forces them to hike even more and further damage GDP. Further stagflation risks from higher gas prices or CPI prints could trigger bearish reactions. Politics is also in focus, where any attempts to oust PM Johnson by changing no-confidence laws could trigger bearish reactions. GBP is usually sensitive to political uncertainty and anything that raises odds of a snap election should be negative. With UK threats of triggering Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do Brexit is in focus again. For now, markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. We have lots of BoE speak coming up this week, any overly dovish comments signalling less aggressive policy than what markets are currently pricing in could trigger bearish GBP reactions. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the GBP remains fairly bleak right now with the economic prospects and risk of stagflation keeping the currency pressured. Anything that exacerbates stagflation fears is expected to weigh on the Pound and anything that alleviates some of that pressure should be positive. Tactically the GBP has been stretched to the downside, so any new shorts do need to be weary of the risk of some mean reversion as we saw after this past week’s BoE meeting. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a very favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. Furthermore, despite clear warning signals, the BoC has chosen to ignore the negatives and has stayed surprisingly optimistic and hawkish. We’ve missed most of the move higher in the CAD as our bias has kept us cautious, but the risks are still present and with the currency close to 9-year highs (at the index level) we have very little appetite for chasing it higher from here and will be actively looking for opportunities to trade the CAD lower with the right type of bearish catalyst. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalyst that sees further upside Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. With more market participants noticing cracks in the housing markets, a very solid House Price Index print could ease some of those concerns and provide some upside. Even though a lot of tightening has been priced in for the BoC , a big enough surprise in CPI that triggers further hike expectations could provide some short-term support. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. Since a lot of policy tightening has been priced into STIR markets, any negative catalysts that triggers less hawkish BoC expectations (faster deceleration in growth or inflation ) could trigger outsized downside for the CAD. In recent communication, Governor Macklem started to mention some hiccups in housing. A big miss in the House Price index could trigger more speculation of a less hawkish bank and could trigger some downside for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, we remain cautious on the currency, even though it’s move much higher than we anticipated. With a lot of upside priced into the CAD and Canadian yields, our preferred way of trading the CAD would be to look for short-term negative catalysts to trade the CAD lower instead of chasing it higher.
by thunderpips
1
GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE The overall bleak economic outlook for the UK, with exceptionally high Inflation and rapidly falling growth have been the biggest negative driver for Sterling. With rising price pressures and falling demand, the risks of stagflation has risen substantially, so much so that the BoE have forecasted a possible recession for the UK economy heading into 2023. At their June meeting the bank followed through with their more moderate approach by hiking 25bsp instead of growing calls of a potential 50bsp hike. The BoE is stuck between a rock and a hard place, right now they have to hike rates to try and fight inflation but by doing so they risk further damaging economic growth as a result. Even though the June statement was dovish, it wasn’t materially more dovish compared to their previous meeting. the price action was a clear warning sign that a lot of negatives has been priced in for Sterling in recent weeks so chasing lower in risky. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Stagflation fears are very high for the UK, with probabilities of recession growing by the week. With so much bad news priced in, incoming news risk is asymmetrical, meaning positive surprises in growth data (like incoming flash PMIs) could trigger bullish reactions for Sterling. Furthermore, as the UK is facing one of its biggest cost of living squeezes in history, lower-than-expected inflation prints (coming up Wednesday) could counterintuitively be a positive driver for the currency (lower CPI means less stagflation risk). The economy needs help right now, which means any help from the fiscal side will be a positive. Any major fiscal support measures to help consumers (subsidies for energy or tax cuts) could trigger bullish reactions for the Pound. We have lots of BoE speak coming up this week, any overly hawkish comments signalling more aggressive policy than what markets are currently pricing in could trigger bullish GBP reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Monetary policy is a double-edged sword for the GBP. Odds that the BoE has limited hikes left has been a negative driver, but so too is risks that inflation forces them to hike even more and further damage GDP. Further stagflation risks from higher gas prices or CPI prints could trigger bearish reactions. Politics is also in focus, where any attempts to oust PM Johnson by changing no-confidence laws could trigger bearish reactions. GBP is usually sensitive to political uncertainty and anything that raises odds of a snap election should be negative. With UK threats of triggering Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do Brexit is in focus again. For now, markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. We have lots of BoE speak coming up this week, any overly dovish comments signalling less aggressive policy than what markets are currently pricing in could trigger bearish GBP reactions. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the GBP remains fairly bleak right now with the economic prospects and risk of stagflation keeping the currency pressured. Anything that exacerbates stagflation fears is expected to weigh on the Pound and anything that alleviates some of that pressure should be positive. Tactically the GBP has been stretched to the downside, so any new shorts do need to be weary of the risk of some mean reversion as we saw after this past week’s BoE meeting. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >8%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. STIR markets suggests aggressive policy action pricing a terminal rate of >3.8% by 2Q23 which should be a positive input for the US Dollar . Safe haven flows have also supported the USD as it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Expectations of a cyclical slowdown, accompanied by multi-decade high inflation and synchronized removal of monetary policy stimulus from major economies has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety as economic prospects have deteriorated. Even though US bonds are considered safe havens, the current high inflation has seen a strong stock-to-bond correlation and has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has benefited from the rush to safety. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data (especially inflation ) that sparks further hike expectations, or additionally any comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means any incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices and inflation expectations could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES More recently the USD has reacted more cyclically to incoming data which could suggest markets is shifting from safe haven focus to the rising risks of recession. The worse growth data slows, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad growth data could trigger bearish reactions in the USD despite its safe haven appeal. Tactically the USD is trading at cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is still close prior highs which acted aslocal tops for the USD. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for the Fed to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Thus, any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. But we do want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and growth deteriorates, we are expecting that the weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a higher likelihood of a less hawkish Fed as a result of higher risks of recession. Furthermore, given tactical and CFTC positioning, we would prefer deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs, but shortterm catalyst can still offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend.
by thunderpips
1
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsCHF/SNB – The Swiss franc soared on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank delivered a surprise interest rate hike, increasing its policy Rate to -0.25% from -0.75%. Additionally, the SNB notes that based on their latest inflation forecasts, further rate hikes were likely in the coming meetings. The rate increase was the central bank’s first hike in 15 years. GBP/BoE – An overall volatile day for GBP, largely in part to the BoE’s June meeting, where the central bank increased interest rates by 25 basis points taking the Official Bank Rate to 1.25%. GBP initially weakened after the BoE’s announcement, which fell short of some participants’ expectations following the FOMC’s aggressive 75 basis point hike on Wednesday. However, GBP eventually pared its initial losses and continued to print fresh highs as the focus shifted to the BoE’s statement to act “forcefully” in response to “indications of more persistent inflationary pressures.”
by thunderpips
2
GBP JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH Inflation and growth have been the biggest negative drivers for Sterling so far this year. Due to a very bleak outlook for growth and accompanied by inflation that is close to 5 times the BoE’s target, the real risks of stagflation have weighed on the GBP. As a result of the growing stagflation risks, it has also forced the BoE’s hand to more dovish at every meeting since February, with the previous one stopping just shy of forecasting a possible recession for the economy going into 2023. At this stage, the BoE is hiking rates reluctantly, not because the economy is doing great, but because of unacceptably high levels of inflation. The deteriorating economic outlook has also caused markets to doubt whether the bank will be able to deliver to the number of hikes that STIR has already priced in, with some participants expecting the bank to hike once or twice more and then pause. POSSIBLE HAWKISH SURPRISES Stagflation fears are very high for the UK, with the probability of a recession growing by the week. With so much bad news priced in, any materially positive surprises in growth data could trigger bullish reactions for Sterling. Furthermore, as the UK is facing one of its biggest cost of living squeezes in history, lower-than-expected inflation prints could counterintuitively be a positive driver for the currency. The economy needs help right now, which means any help from the fiscal side will be a positive. Thus, any major fiscal support measures to help consumers (like subsidies for energy or potential tax cuts) could trigger upside for Sterling. POSSIBLE DOVISH SURPRISES Monetary policy is a double-edged sword for the GBP. Odds that the BoE has limited hikes left has been a negative driver, but so too is risks that inflation forces them to hike even more and further damage GDP. Further stagflation risks from higher gas prices or CPI prints could trigger bearish reactions. Politics is also in focus, where any attempts to oust PM Johnson by changing no-confidence laws could trigger bearish reactions. GBP is usually sensitive to political uncertainty and anything that raises odds of a snap election should be negative. With UK threats of triggering Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do Brexit is in focus again. For now, markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the GBP remains fairly bleak right now with the economic prospects and risk of stagflation keeping the currency pressured. Anything that exacerbates stagflation fears is expected to weigh on the Pound and anything that alleviates some of that pressure should be positive. Tactically the GBP has been stretched to the downside, so any new shorts do need to be weary of the risk of some mean reversion. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH The Yen has fallen off the proverbial cliff over the past few months, driven by very negative fundamentals. Yield differentials has by far had the biggest negative impact. With other major central banks starting aggressive hiking cycles, it has lifted yields quite dramatically, compared to the BoJ which has stubbornly kept their yields capped through continued Yield Curve Control. The inverse correlation to US10Y is usually important but has taken centre stage in recent months as the biggest driver of the JPY. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, the inflows has been more limited compared to other cycles. The main reason for that is that the bank’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated and expected to continue to deteriorate due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports over 90% of their energy commodities, so the continued rise in oil prices has added to the downside and also eroded some of the classic safe haven appeal. Monetary policy is the other negative driver. Despite inflation starting to push higher in Japan, and despite the lessons from other central banks now struggling with inflation last seen since the 70’s, and despite the market’s relentless attempts at testing the JGB 10-year yield cap at 0.25%, the bank has stayed stubbornly dovish. At this stage the bank is playing a very dangerous game by allowing the JPY to weaken, further adding to inflationary risks. Their dovish persistence remains a negative for the JPY. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid and violent depreciation in the JPY has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act and actually do something, the market will keep testing them and shorting the JPY. POSSIBLE HAWKISH SURPRISES Any catalysts that trigger meaningful downside in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US CPI, faster deceleration in US growth) or triggers meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Monetary policy is stubbornly dovish. Any catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ would drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation) could trigger a big recovery in the JPY, especially with stretched short positioning. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE DOVISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US CPI, better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture looks bleak for the JPY right now, and as long as US10Y gain ground and as long as the BoJ stays unnecessarily dovish and as long as the BoJ and MoF does nothing to address JPY weakness, the bias remains lower. However, given stretched tactical and CFTC positioning, and given growth concerns in the US, we don’t want to chase the JPY lower from here.
by thunderpips
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsUSD – The dollar edged higher against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, printing fresh two-decade highs as traders braced for an aggressive rate hike from the Federal Reserve this week to try to curb inflation. Reuters notes their Fedwatch tool places a “nearly 90% expectation for a 75 basis-point increase at the conclusion of a two-day Fed meeting on Wednesday.” GBP – Sterling plunged on Tuesday to a 13-month low versus EUR and fell below 1.20 versus USD for the first time since the start of the pandemic after Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she was set to share details on plans for a new independence referendum.
TVC:DXY
by thunderpips
1
Let's Short the pound at 1.21721) There was an almost "strong bearish trend"! 2) A battle has been seen between bulls and bears at base candle. 3) "Sellers" clearly won the battle! 4) There might be a economical reason behind this move. Since we are chartists, we do not necessarily need to know why this move has happened! 5) According to long term back-tests, if the price reaches the base range, it is about 65% likely to react. However, due to unpredictable market fluctuations and possible trader inaccuracies, the Win Rate of this trading system in various instruments is between 45% and 55%. Regarding the great TP to SL, this strategy is really great at money-making. 6) I will not change the SL but TP may change according to the market situations, So follow this idea. 7) Don't forget about risk management and money management principles. Best regards , Ali
Short
by AliSignals
GBPJPY: Battle of the weak pairs?!GBPJPY Intraday - We look to Buy at 162.10 (stop at 161.00) We are trading at oversold extremes. A Doji style candle has been posted from the base. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. We look to buy dips. Our profit targets will be 165.20 and 168.40 Resistance: 165.40 / 168.40 / 171.90 Support: 162.00 / 158.65 / 155.60 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre
Long
by VantageMarkets
GBPUSD short now or then! 1) There was an almost "strong bearish trend"! 2) A battle has been seen between bulls and bears at base candle. 3) "Sellers" clearly won the battle! 4) There might be a economical reason behind this move. Since we are chartists, we do not necessarily need to know why this move has happened! 5) According to long term back-tests, if the price reaches the base range, it is about 65% likely to react. However, due to unpredictable market fluctuations and possible trader inaccuracies, the Win Rate of this trading system in various instruments is between 45% and 55%. Regarding the great TP to SL, this strategy is really great at money-making. 6) Don't forget about risk management and money management principles. Best regards , Ali
Short
by AliSignals
EUR GBP - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy The ECB used the April meeting as a place holder meeting for the most part by not announcing any additional policy tweaks. The plans to phase out the APP into Q3 remained intact by reducing purchases from 40bln to 30bln in May and then down to 20bln in June. Markets were leaning towards a slightly more hawkish take from the bank (given recent inflation pressures), but the lack of conviction to remove the conditionality regarding the APP removal was seen as dovish. President Lagarde added to this dovish tone by explaining that Q3 has three months and IF the bank stops the APP, it could happen July, August or September. This was an important statement as the difference between a July and September end could mean the difference between a Q3 or Q4 rate hike. The president also added to the dovish tone by stressing that risks for the economic outlook are tilted to the downside and have recently intensified with geopolitical and virus-related challenges. When asked about policy normalization, the president made a strange comment by saying it is premature to think about monpol normalisation. As the bank is currently embarking on normalization this comment seemed out of place and reaffirmed the overall dovish take from the meeting. There were the usual sources releases after the presser which said policymakers see a July hike as still possible after Thursday's meeting, which provided some reprieve. With inflation >7% and growth slowing, the June meeting which accompanies staff economic projections will be critical for markets to solidify whether expectations of 1 or 2 hikes this year is correct or not. 2. Economic – Health – Geopolitics Growth differentials still favour the US over EU capital flows, but differentials have turned positive and remain positive against the UK. Given growing stagflation fears the ECB is in a tough spot, being forced to normalize policy to try and combat inflation but could as a result further damage growth. Ongoing EU fiscal discussions to possibly allow ‘green bonds’ NOT to count against budget deficits remains in focus, alongside debt issuance for energy purchases. If approved, it will offer a flood of fiscal support which would be positive for the EUR and EU equities. Geopolitics remain a focus point as well given the ongoing war in Ukraine, but after the initial geopolitical scares but have been trying to carve out a base. Proximity to the war and the impact of sanctions remains a risk if the situation deteriorates. With lots of negatives already priced, chasing lows on bad news is not as attractive as chasing the EUR higher on good news. 3. CFTC Analysis Another very bullish signal with all three major categories seeing another week of net-long weekly changes. It seems as if all three categories added longs at the worst possible time last week as the EUR failed to garner much upside momentum. With recent growth & inflation differentials turning in favour of the EUR we prefer trading the EUR higher on good news as opposed to chasing it lower on bad news right now. GBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BEARISH 1. Monetary Policy At their May meeting, the BoE delivered on expectations by raising the bank rate by 25bsp to 1.0%. There was an initial hawkish surprise as the vote split was 9-0 (no dissent from Cunliffe) and 3 of the 9 MPC members voted for a 50bsp move at the meeting. However, the hawkish reaction soon faded as it was also revealed that 2 of the 6 members who voted for a hike thought that this marked the end of the current hiking cycle. The dovishness didn’t stop there though as the BoE revised up their forecasts for peak inflation to >10% which added to the stagflation fears as the bank also saw possible GDP contraction in 2023. Furthermore, the bank took their first real stab at overly aggressive STIR pricing for the 2022 rate path by saying the current path would imply a big undershoot of their 2% inflation target in 2023 and was later backed up by Governor Bailey who said even though he thought rates should continue to rise he didn’t agree with those who think the MPC should be raising interest rates by a lot more. As the bank rate was raised to 1.0%, the markets expected some clarity from the bank on their plans to reduce the balance sheet . However, the bank decided to play for more time and said the bank will provide an update on their plans at the August meeting, pushing back expectations of active QT from Q2 to Q3. As a result of the overall dovish tone, Sterling fell to its lowest levels since 1Q21. The meeting confirmed market calls that the bank would look to hold rates steady after reaching 1.50%. 2. Economic – Health – Geopolitics With inflation the main reason for the BoE’s recent rate hikes, there is a concern that the UK economy faces considerable stagflation risk, as price pressuresstay sticky while growth decelerates. Looking at growth forecasts, the pace of the expected slowdown in the UK compared to other major economies portrays a pretty bleak picture. That means current rate expectations continues to look too aggressive, even after the BoE’s recent dovish tilt. This means downside risks for GBP if growth data push lower and/or the BoE continue to push their recent dovish tone. Political uncertainty is usually also a GBP negative, so the PM’s future remains a risk. If distrust grows the question remains whether a no-confidence vote can happen (if so, short-term downside is likely), and whether he can survive the vote (a win should be GBP positive and a loss GBP negative). Reports over the weekend suggest that a no-confidence vote can happen as early as the upcoming week so that will be a focus point for GBP. The Northern Ireland protocol remains a focus, with previous UK threats to trigger Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do. Markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside 3. CFTC Analysis A fairly bullish signal for GBP as all three participant categories saw net-long weekly changes. Aggregate positioning is still below 1 standard dev from the 15-year mean. Even though the outlook for Sterling shifted to weak bearish from neutral, positioning looks stretched and means we are not too excited to chase the Pound lower from here.
by thunderpips
1
GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BEARISH 1. Monetary Policy At their May meeting, the BoE delivered on expectations by raising the bank rate by 25bsp to 1.0%. There was an initial hawkish surprise as the vote split was 9-0 (no dissent from Cunliffe) and 3 of the 9 MPC members voted for a 50bsp move at the meeting. However, the hawkish reaction soon faded as it was also revealed that 2 of the 6 members who voted for a hike thought that this marked the end of the current hiking cycle. The dovishness didn’t stop there though as the BoE revised up their forecasts for peak inflation to >10% which added to the stagflation fears as the bank also saw possible GDP contraction in 2023. Furthermore, the bank took their first real stab at overly aggressive STIR pricing for the 2022 rate path by saying the current path would imply a big undershoot of their 2% inflation target in 2023 and was later backed up by Governor Bailey who said even though he thought rates should continue to rise he didn’t agree with those who think the MPC should be raising interest rates by a lot more. As the bank rate was raised to 1.0%, the markets expected some clarity from the bank on their plans to reduce the balance sheet . However, the bank decided to play for more time and said the bank will provide an update on their plans at the August meeting, pushing back expectations of active QT from Q2 to Q3. As a result of the overall dovish tone, Sterling fell to its lowest levels since 1Q21. The meeting confirmed market calls that the bank would look to hold rates steady after reaching 1.50%. 2. Economic – Health – Geopolitics With inflation the main reason for the BoE’s recent rate hikes, there is a concern that the UK economy faces considerable stagflation risk, as price pressuresstay sticky while growth decelerates. Looking at growth forecasts, the pace of the expected slowdown in the UK compared to other major economies portrays a pretty bleak picture. That means current rate expectations continues to look too aggressive, even after the BoE’s recent dovish tilt. This means downside risks for GBP if growth data push lower and/or the BoE continue to push their recent dovish tone. Political uncertainty is usually also a GBP negative, so the PM’s future remains a risk. If distrust grows the question remains whether a no-confidence vote can happen (if so, short-term downside is likely), and whether he can survive the vote (a win should be GBP positive and a loss GBP negative). Reports over the weekend suggest that a no-confidence vote can happen as early as the upcoming week so that will be a focus point for GBP. The Northern Ireland protocol remains a focus, with previous UK threats to trigger Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do. Markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside 3. CFTC Analysis A fairly bullish signal for GBP as all three participant categories saw net-long weekly changes. Aggregate positioning is still below 1 standard dev from the 15-year mean. Even though the outlook for Sterling shifted to weak bearish from neutral, positioning looks stretched and means we are not too excited to chase the Pound lower from here. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy In May the Fed delivered on hawkish expectations by hiking the Fed Funds Rate by 50bsp and also confirmed that the committee expects further 50bsp hikes to be appropriate. The fed also stuck to a familiar hawkish tone by downplaying the prospects of an imminent recession by explaining that even though the economy contracted in Q1, that household spending and business investment remained strong. The Chair also stuck to their guns regarding the rate path by suggesting that they think reaching neutral (currently estimated at 2.4%) before year-end would be appropriate and will assess the need for further hikes when they get there. There were however some less hawkish elements which saw a very classic ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction in major asset classes. The first one was on the Quantitative Tightening front where the bank decided on a phased approach for balance sheet reduction by starting the monthly caps at 30bn (treasuries) and 17.5bn ( MBS ) and pushing it up to the expected $60bn (treasuries) and $35bn ( MBS ) over a three-month timeframe. The second less hawkish element was comments from Chair Powell who took 75bsp hikes off the table saying the committee was not actively considering rate moves of that size. Interestingly, it seems STIR markets did not really believe the Fed as the probability of a 75bsp hike stood at >70% directly following the presser. All-in-all, the meeting provided a short-term ‘sell-the-fact’ opportunity, but also cemented the view that despite signs of a slowing economy and despite clear stress in financial markets, the Fed is sticking to their aggressive tightening for now. 2. Global & Domestic Economy The USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Expectations of a cyclical slowdown have been USD positive. However, we think a lot of the growth concerns might be reflected in recent USD appreciation already. Furthermore, the USD has not been responding positively to bad data like we’ve seen from the start of the year. More recently we’ve seen the USD depreciate on bad data which could suggest that the USD’s driver has temporarily shifted away from the growth focus and shifted towards a Fed focus as the worse the incoming data becomes the higher the likelihood of a less aggressive Fed in the months ahead. Incoming data will be watched closely in relation to the infamous ‘Fed Put’. If growth data slows but not enough to stop the Fed’s hawkish path it’s USD positive, but if the data cause a Fed pivot that’ll be a big negative for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis An overall bearish positioning change across major participant categories last week. Aggregate USD positioning remains close to 1 standard deviation above the mean, and close to prior tops where the USD topped out in previous cycles. That means we don’t want to chase the USD higher from here in the short-term.
by thunderpips
2
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsGBP – Sterling fell on Wednesday, staying close to a near three-week low amid worries for the UK economy and investor nervousness about a confidence vote on British Prime Minister Boris Johnson that has left him politically vulnerable. Commenting on UK political uncertainty, ING notes that “sterling will face more volatility around two UK by-elections to be held on 23 June – both of which the Conservatives stand a real risk of losing. Yet the Conservatives still retain a substantial majority in the Commons and if anything, pressure at the polls could translate into earlier tax cuts to appeal to the base”. JPY – Japanese policymakers held fast to their usual line on yen weakness on Wednesday, stating that rapid moves were undesirable, but confounded expectations they may escalate warnings about the sliding currency as it fell to fresh 20-year lows. Summarising today’s comments, Mizuho Bank explains that “there’s no clear threshold as to when policymakers may escalate warning against weak yen. Then may wait until it tops 140 yen. With voters’ support staying high, policymakers appear complacent. Therefore they did not want Kuroda to say something unnecessary to rock the boat.”
by thunderpips
2
EUR GBP - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy The ECB used the April meeting as a place holder meeting for the most part by not announcing any additional policy tweaks. The plans to phase out the APP into Q3 remained intact by reducing purchases from 40bln to 30bln in May and then down to 20bln in June. Markets were leaning towards a slightly more hawkish take from the bank (given recent inflation pressures), but the lack of conviction to remove the conditionality regarding the APP removal was seen as dovish. President Lagarde added to this dovish tone by explaining that Q3 has three months and IF the bank stops the APP, it could happen July, August or September. This was an important statement as the difference between a July and September end could mean the difference between a Q3 or Q4 rate hike. The president also added to the dovish tone by stressing that risks for the economic outlook are tilted to the downside and have recently intensified with geopolitical and virus-related challenges. When asked about policy normalization, the president made a strange comment by saying it is premature to think about monpol normalisation. As the bank is currently embarking on normalization this comment seemed out of place and reaffirmed the overall dovish take from the meeting. There were the usual sources releases after the presser which said policymakers see a July hike as still possible after Thursday's meeting, which provided some reprieve. With inflation >7% and growth slowing, the June meeting which accompanies staff economic projections will be critical for markets to solidify whether expectations of 1 or 2 hikes this year is correct or not. 2. Economic – Health – Geopolitics Growth differentials still favour the US over EU capital flows, but differentials have turned positive and remain positive against the UK. Given growing stagflation fears the ECB is in a tough spot, being forced to normalize policy to try and combat inflation but could as a result further damage growth. Ongoing EU fiscal discussions to possibly allow ‘green bonds’ NOT to count against budget deficits remains in focus, alongside debt issuance for energy purchases. If approved, it will offer a flood of fiscal support which would be positive for the EUR and EU equities. Geopolitics remain a focus point as well given the ongoing war in Ukraine, but after the initial geopolitical scares but have been trying to carve out a base. Proximity to the war and the impact of sanctions remains a risk if the situation deteriorates. With lots of negatives already priced, chasing lows on bad news is not as attractive as chasing the EUR higher on good news. 3. CFTC Analysis Another very bullish signal with all three major categories seeing another week of net-long weekly changes. It seems as if all three categories added longs at the worst possible time last week as the EUR failed to garner much upside momentum. With recent growth & inflation differentials turning in favour of the EUR we prefer trading the EUR higher on good news as opposed to chasing it lower on bad news right now. 4. The Week Ahead The main event for the EUR in the week ahead will be the ECB policy decision. However, after the flurry of comments from various ECB members over the past few weeks, the meeting is not likely going to offer many surprises or fireworks, unless President Lagarde messes up her communication again. Markets are already pricing in 4 hikes (100bsp of tightening) by the end of the year, with a 25bsp hike in July and September fully priced. Thus, the focus will more likely shift to what happens after September, whether there is any specific mention that rates could rise above 0% by the end of the year. Furthermore, with inflation where it is, there has been some ECB members who have been hinting that a 50bsp might be up for discussion. This seems unlikely to be an option that the GC would want to go for at this stage but is a key risk we need to build into our scenario planning. Any comments from Lagarde that suggests a 50bsp could be possible in July would arguably be enough to give the EUR a bit of a lift. What the bank has to say about the recent move in Bund yields, and more specifically the climb in things like BTP/ Bund spreads, will be important as well. With inflation as big of a problem as it Is right now, they can’t afford to stop their hiking posture just to save spreads (even though they are important). Thus, being on the lookout for her comments on the spreads will be important, especially if the bank might be contemplating a new type of tool(s) to ease some of the issues with the widening spreads. The other driver to watch in the week ahead is the USD. As close to 60% of the DXY has a EUR weighting, any big fluctuations in the Dollar as a result of the US CPI print needs to be kept in mind for the EUR in general in the week ahead. Even though geopolitics have not really been a big EUR mover, we should keep geopolitics in the back of our min as a possible short-term catalyst for the EUR. GBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BEARISH 1. Monetary Policy At their May meeting, the BoE delivered on expectations by raising the bank rate by 25bsp to 1.0%. There was an initial hawkish surprise as the vote split was 9-0 (no dissent from Cunliffe) and 3 of the 9 MPC members voted for a 50bsp move at the meeting. However, the hawkish reaction soon faded as it was also revealed that 2 of the 6 members who voted for a hike thought that this marked the end of the current hiking cycle. The dovishness didn’t stop there though as the BoE revised up their forecasts for peak inflation to >10% which added to the stagflation fears as the bank also saw possible GDP contraction in 2023. Furthermore, the bank took their first real stab at overly aggressive STIR pricing for the 2022 rate path by saying the current path would imply a big undershoot of their 2% inflation target in 2023 and was later backed up by Governor Bailey who said even though he thought rates should continue to rise he didn’t agree with those who think the MPC should be raising interest rates by a lot more. As the bank rate was raised to 1.0%, the markets expected some clarity from the bank on their plans to reduce the balance sheet . However, the bank decided to play for more time and said the bank will provide an update on their plans at the August meeting, pushing back expectations of active QT from Q2 to Q3. As a result of the overall dovish tone, Sterling fell to its lowest levels since 1Q21. The meeting confirmed market calls that the bank would look to hold rates steady after reaching 1.50%. 2. Economic – Health – Geopolitics With inflation the main reason for the BoE’s recent rate hikes, there is a concern that the UK economy faces considerable stagflation risk, as price pressuresstay sticky while growth decelerates. Looking at growth forecasts, the pace of the expected slowdown in the UK compared to other major economies portrays a pretty bleak picture. That means current rate expectations continues to look too aggressive, even after the BoE’s recent dovish tilt. This means downside risks for GBP if growth data push lower and/or the BoE continue to push their recent dovish tone. Political uncertainty is usually also a GBP negative, so the PM’s future remains a risk. If distrust grows the question remains whether a no-confidence vote can happen (if so, short-term downside is likely), and whether he can survive the vote (a win should be GBP positive and a loss GBP negative). Reports over the weekend suggest that a no-confidence vote can happen as early as the upcoming week so that will be a focus point for GBP. The Northern Ireland protocol remains a focus, with previous UK threats to trigger Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do. Markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside 3. CFTC Analysis A fairly bullish signal for GBP as all three participant categories saw net-long weekly changes. Aggregate positioning is still below 1 standard dev from the 15-year mean. Even though the outlook for Sterling shifted to weak bearish from neutral, positioning looks stretched and means we are not too excited to chase the Pound lower from here. 4. The Week Ahead With a very light economic data schedule for the week ahead, the more pressing matter for the GBP will probably fall to politics where reports over the weekend suggest that the PM could face a vote of no-confidence as soon as the upcoming week. As noted above, political uncertainty is usually a negative input for Sterling, but the concerns about a no-confidence vote is something that markets have been contemplating for some time already. That means, unless a vote is actually confirmed we are not expecting much downside for Sterling. If a vote is confirmed, it is likely to weigh on the currency, but the focus after that will soon turn to whether the PM has enough support within his party to survive such a vote. If the markets think the PM has a high likelihood of succeeding, the vote could end up being a positive driver for Sterling instead of a negative one. Thus, we won’t be jumping into fresh GBP shorts if a vote is confirmed, we’ll be waiting for the outcome and would prefer some possible short-term upside trades on good news given how stretched positioning looks for Sterling right now.
by thunderpips
2
GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BEARISH 1. Monetary Policy At their May meeting, the BoE delivered on expectations by raising the bank rate by 25bsp to 1.0%. There was an initial hawkish surprise as the vote split was 9-0 (no dissent from Cunliffe) and 3 of the 9 MPC members voted for a 50bsp move at the meeting. However, the hawkish reaction soon faded as it was also revealed that 2 of the 6 members who voted for a hike thought that this marked the end of the current hiking cycle. The dovishness didn’t stop there though as the BoE revised up their forecasts for peak inflation to >10% which added to the stagflation fears as the bank also saw possible GDP contraction in 2023. Furthermore, the bank took their first real stab at overly aggressive STIR pricing for the 2022 rate path by saying the current path would imply a big undershoot of their 2% inflation target in 2023 and was later backed up by Governor Bailey who said even though he thought rates should continue to rise he didn’t agree with those who think the MPC should be raising interest rates by a lot more. As the bank rate was raised to 1.0%, the markets expected some clarity from the bank on their plans to reduce the balance sheet. However, the bank decided to play for more time and said the bank will provide an update on their plans at the August meeting, pushing back expectations of active QT from Q2 to Q3. As a result of the overall dovish tone, Sterling fell to its lowest levels since 1Q21. The meeting confirmed market calls that the bank would look to hold rates steady after reaching 1.50%. 2. Economic – Health – Geopolitics With inflation the main reason for the BoE’s recent rate hikes, there is a concern that the UK economy faces considerable stagflation risk, as price pressuresstay sticky while growth decelerates. Looking at growth forecasts, the pace of the expected slowdown in the UK compared to other major economies portrays a pretty bleak picture. That means current rate expectations continues to look too aggressive, even after the BoE’s recent dovish tilt. This means downside risks for GBP if growth data push lower and/or the BoE continue to push their recent dovish tone. Political uncertainty is usually also a GBP negative, so the PM’s future remains a risk. If distrust grows the question remains whether a no-confidence vote can happen (if so, short-term downside is likely), and whether he can survive the vote (a win should be GBP positive and a loss GBP negative). Reports over the weekend suggest that a no-confidence vote can happen as early as the upcoming week so that will be a focus point for GBP. The Northern Ireland protocol remains a focus, with previous UK threats to trigger Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do. Markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside 3. CFTC Analysis A fairly bullish signal for GBP as all three participant categories saw net-long weekly changes. Aggregate positioning is still below 1 standard dev from the 15-year mean. Even though the outlook for Sterling shifted to weak bearish from neutral, positioning looks stretched and means we are not too excited to chase the Pound lower from here. 4. The Week Ahead With a very light economic data schedule for the week ahead, the more pressing matter for the GBP will probably fall to politics where reports over the weekend suggest that the PM could face a vote of no-confidence as soon as the upcoming week. As noted above, political uncertainty is usually a negative input for Sterling, but the concerns about a no-confidence vote is something that markets have been contemplating for some time already. That means, unless a vote is actually confirmed we are not expecting much downside for Sterling. If a vote is confirmed, it is likely to weigh on the currency, but the focus after that will soon turn to whether the PM has enough support within his party to survive such a vote. If the markets think the PM has a high likelihood of succeeding, the vote could end up being a positive driver for Sterling instead of a negative one. Thus, we won’t be jumping into fresh GBP shorts if a vote is confirmed, we’ll be waiting for the outcome and would prefer some possible short-term upside trades on good news given how stretched positioning looks for Sterling right now. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy In May the Fed delivered on hawkish expectations by hiking the Fed Funds Rate by 50bsp and also confirmed that the committee expects further 50bsp hikes to be appropriate. The fed also stuck to a familiar hawkish tone by downplaying the prospects of an imminent recession by explaining that even though the economy contracted in Q1, that household spending and business investment remained strong. The Chair also stuck to their guns regarding the rate path by suggesting that they think reaching neutral (currently estimated at 2.4%) before year-end would be appropriate and will assess the need for further hikes when they get there. There were however some less hawkish elements which saw a very classic ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction in major asset classes. The first one was on the Quantitative Tightening front where the bank decided on a phased approach for balance sheet reduction by starting the monthly caps at 30bn (treasuries) and 17.5bn ( MBS ) and pushing it up to the expected $60bn (treasuries) and $35bn ( MBS ) over a three-month timeframe. The second less hawkish element was comments from Chair Powell who took 75bsp hikes off the table saying the committee was not actively considering rate moves of that size. Interestingly, it seems STIR markets did not really believe the Fed as the probability of a 75bsp hike stood at >70% directly following the presser. All-in-all, the meeting provided a short-term ‘sell-the-fact’ opportunity, but also cemented the view that despite signs of a slowing economy and despite clear stress in financial markets, the Fed is sticking to their aggressive tightening for now. 2. Global & Domestic Economy The USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Expectations of a cyclical slowdown have been USD positive. However, we think a lot of the growth concerns might be reflected in recent USD appreciation already. Furthermore, the USD has not been responding positively to bad data like we’ve seen from the start of the year. More recently we’ve seen the USD depreciate on bad data which could suggest that the USD’s driver has temporarily shifted away from the growth focus and shifted towards a Fed focus as the worse the incoming data becomes the higher the likelihood of a less aggressive Fed in the months ahead. Incoming data will be watched closely in relation to the infamous ‘Fed Put’. If growth data slows but not enough to stop the Fed’s hawkish path it’s USD positive, but if the data cause a Fed pivot that’ll be a big negative for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis An overall bearish positioning change across major participant categories last week. Aggregate USD positioning remains close to 1 standard deviation above the mean, and close to prior tops where the USD topped out in previous cycles. That means we don’t want to chase the USD higher from here in the short-term. 4. The Week Ahead We have shifted our bias for the USD from bullish to weak bullish based on the USD’s recent negative reaction to bad US economic data. If this trend persists, we could very likely be changing our fundamental bias for the USD to neutral. In the week ahead the main event in focus for the USD will be the May CPI data. It was clear from the past two CPI prints that we are likely past the peak in YY terms, but the peak is no longer enough to satisfy markets. From here the focus for CPI won’t only be on the declining level but also the pace at which it slows, which means monthly data points are very important as well. That means a lot of focus on how monthly CPI figures are impacted by big fluctuations in things like food, energy, and shelter prices. Both core measures are expected to slow again, while headline YY expected to stay flat, but a big acceleration expected for headline CPI due to recent upside seen in commodity prices. With markets already expecting a further move lower in the core components we will likely need a very significant miss to really ‘surprise’ markets. However, big surprise drops in both headline and core would still be expected to put pressure on the USD and US10Y while offering support for things like Gold and equities.
by thunderpips
GBPCHF: Rallies bound to fail?!GBPCHF Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.2216 (stop at 1.2304) Bespoke resistance is located at 1.2225. We look to sell rallies. Selling posted in Asia. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. This provides an excellent risk/reward opportunity to fade the current bullish move. Our profit targets will be 1.2003 and 1.1910 Resistance: 1.2200 / 1.2440 / 1.2609 Support: 1.20600 / 1.1918 / 1.1630 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets