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Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsCHF – The Swiss National Bank is no longer standing in the way of the franc’s appreciation, according to data published on Monday, in an eye-catching change in view of the safe-haven currency’s rise to its highest against the euro in more than six years. The former manager of the SNB’s foreign currency reserves, Thomas Stucki, argues that “if the franc stays at this level of around 1.05, a little bit above, a little bit below, the SNB won’t do a lot… They will prevent the movement below 1.04 to 1.03. Then they will step up interventions.” GBP – Sterling fell back to an 11-month low on Monday as investors weighed the discovery of the Omicron coronavirus variant on the outlook for the British economy. Commenting on the latest variant of the virus of the virus, Nomura notes that “In terms of the outlook, for the UK it’s possibly a bigger risk as the market’s long-held assumption that UK is unlikely to witness another lockdown.”
by thunderpips
3
GBPUSD - 4h - Análisis SemanalThis is one of my favourite pairs. After 1 successful week, let's go for the second week. It is the last days of November, there is a lot of indecision in the market. This is a Flash Trade. Risk 1% of your account equity. SL 1.33070 (35 Pips) TP1 1.33770 (35 Pips) TP2 1.34070 (65 Pips) Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. Patience, Discipline and Good Trade! KISS: Keep It Simple Stupid. LCCJ ................................................................................................................................ Este es uno de mis pares favoritos. Despues de 1 semana de exito, vamos a por la segunda semana. Son los últimos días del mes de Noviembre, hay mucha indecisión en el mercado. Este es un Flash Trade. Arriesga el 1% del capital de tu cuenta. SL 1.33070 (35 Pips) TP1 1.33770 (35 Pips) TP2 1.34070 (65 Pips) Traders, si os gusta esta idea o tenéis vuestra propia opinión al respecto, escribid en los comentarios. Paciencia, Disciplina y Buen Trade! Manténgalo simple y estúpido. LCCJ
Long
by LCCJ
GBPUSD 2H TF : 26.Nov.2021This chart examines the GBPUSD price behavior from October 27 to November 26. This chart gives you a good overview that will make better trading decisions based on MTR strategy and channels and micro-channels. If the price reaches our desired levels, we can enter to the Buy position. Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @Ar_M_An_4 📅 26.Nov.2021 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ To give us energy and motivation , please like and leave a comment. ❤️
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
8
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsGBP – The pound slid against the euro edged down slightly against the dollar on Thursday as traders assessed whether recent gains linked to expectations of a central bank rate hike had gone too far. Reuters noted that “investors remain wary about the timing of any move, however, after the BoE surprised markets earlier this month by keeping rates steady when many had understood the hike was coming.” While Citi also reminded that “there are longer term concerns for the currency amid wrangling between the European Union and Britain over the Northern Ireland part of the Brexit deal.”
by thunderpips
3
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsGBP – The pound climbed to a one-week high versus the dollar, and a 21-month peak against the euro on Wednesday after data showed UK inflation surged to a 10-year high last month, backing expectations of an interest rate hike as early as next month. CAD – The Canadian dollar weakened to its lowest level in nearly six weeks against the greenback on Wednesday, as oil prices fell and CPI showed inflation rising in line with expectations, contributed to a drop in Canadian bond yields.
by thunderpips
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsGBP – Sterling fell to its lowest level of 2021 against the dollar on Thursday as the British economy appeared to lose momentum. Reuters noted that “data released by the Office for National Statistics showed Britain’s economy grew by 0.6% in September but estimates for previous months were revised lower, leaving the economy still smaller than it was in February 2020.” AUD – The Australian dollar slid to its lowest in more than a month on Thursday, pressured by an overall disappointing employment report for October. Commenting on the release and its implications for the RBA, HSBC noted that “the key is that the unemployment and underemployment rates are now further away from full employment, meaning more job creation will be needed to reduce labour market spare capacity and put upwards pressure on wages growth. A broad-based strong wages pick-up may therefore be some time away, keeping the RBA dovish.”
by thunderpips
6
GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE The BoE took a hit to their credibility with their November policy decision when the bank voted 7-2 to keep rates on hold and also had a very clear U-turn among some of the recent hawkish comments from the likes of Bailey and Pill. Going into the meeting markets had fully priced a 15bsp hike in 4Q21, and even though analysts and economists were divided on whether that hike would take place in Nov or Dec the bank’s statement and press conference has now seen market expectations for a hike pushed back to Feb 2022. This came from the bank’s dovish tilt regarding growth, inflation as well as a change or tone which said that hikes would be appropriate in the coming months if the labour data comes in inline with the bank’s projections. We were anticipating a violent repricing on med-term rate expectations for the past few weeks now, stressing that rates markets were too aggressively priced, but the U-turn from the bank regarding the near-term was surprising and means incoming labour market data will be key in gauging when lift off will occur. When asked about their obvious U-turn, the bank pushed back and said they won’t endorse market rate pricing, but external member Saunders did just that in early Oct. Overall, the bank delivered a dovish tone, and took a big hit to their credibility, which means markets will be a lot more careful with jumping the gun on their forward guidance going forward. A key reason why we have not changed our outlook for the GBP to bearish after the Nov BoE meeting is because the forecasts for both growth and inflation were conditioned on an implied bank rate of 1% by end 2022, which seems highly unlikely. Thus, after this week’s repricing, if rates price in less than 1% by 2022 then the conditioned path for growth & inflation should be higher again all else being equal. 2. The country’s economic developments The successful vaccination program and subsequent reopening of the UK economy was a big positive for Sterling from the start of the year, but with a lot of those positives already in the price and some expectation of stalling growth, the upward momentum will get tougher in the nearterm. Also, alongside the BoE’s dovish tilt incoming economic data will be crucially important for markets to gauge the rate path. 3. Political Developments Even though a Brexit deal was reached last year, some issues like the Northern Ireland protocol remains, and with neither side willing to budge it seems like these issues are here to stay for now. There has been heated rhetoric from both sides with the UK threatening to trigger Article 16 and the EU threatening to terminate the Brexit deal if they do. For now, these are just threats, but any actual escalation could increase the odds of seeing so risk premium built into Sterling. Also keep the fishing challenges with France in mind as well. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +94 with a net non-commercial position of +15047. Keep in mind the CFTC data released on Friday was only updated with positioning data until Tuesday 3 Nov, which means the big flush lower in Sterling after the BoE meeting will only be reflected in next week’s data. Thus, we would anticipate seeing a sizeable increase in net-short positioning following the Pound’s reaction after the meeting. With the week light on the calendar front, markets will turn attention to incoming comments from Governor Bailey (sigh). Apart from that we’ll be keeping a close eye on key technical levels to determine whether downside momentum could be stalling out. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED Another bank that was hawkish in deed by dovish in word in their Nov policy decision. The Fed official announced tapering as expected, with purchases said to be reduced this month at a pace of $10bln in Treasuries and $5bln in MBS per month and explained that a mid-2022 conclusion is still their base case. There were also some hawkish language changes about inflation , with the bank dropping previous comments that called inflation transitory and replacing it with ‘expected to be transitory’, basically leaving some optionality to pivot more aggressively with tapering should price pressures stay sticky for too long. However, Fed Chair Powell did a really good job to put on a familiar dovish front by explaining that they see the current price pressures as driven by supply bottlenecks and still see those pressures cooling down in in 1H22, essentially giving themselves half a year of ‘tolerating’ the current inflation overshoot. Apart from that, Chair Powell explained that they would need to see maximum employment before their conditions for a lift off in rates would be met, and also explained that its likely that full employment could be reached by mid-2022. That endorsed the idea that a 2h22 hike is possible, but the Chair refused to provide any idea of what maximum employment would look like. On the rate front, Powell also explained that they think they can be patient with rates right now as they want more time to see in what shape the economy is in after the current covid shocks have calmed and after bottlenecks have eased. Overall, a policy meeting that was hawkish in their actions but dovish in their words. 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the card, we think further downside in real yields will be a struggle and the probability are skewed higher given the outlook for growth, inflation and policy, and higher real yields should be supportive for the USD in the med-term . 3. The global risk outlook One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, there has been a growing chorus of market participants looking for a possible bounce in growth data in Q4 after the covid and supply chain related slowdown in Q3. If we do indeed see a pickup in growth, while inflation is still elevated, that would mean a reflationary environment, which is usually a negative input for the Dollar, so we want to keep that in mind when assessing the incoming US economic data in the next few weeks. 4. Economic Data With the FOMC in the mix, the other economic data points largely took a back seat this past week, with even NFP not really creating a lot of meaningful or sustainable volatility . We did however see a late session sell-off in the Dollar, which was arguably more driven by technical factors as the Dollar topped out at key technical resistance and could also have been some profit taking after the recent push higher. This upcoming week’s main economic event will be Oct CPI and will be an event worth keeping on the radar after this past week’s FOMC. 5. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +525 with a net non-commercial position of +34982. Positioning isn’t anywhere near stress levels for the USD, but the speed of the build-up in large specular positioning has been sizeable on a 1-year look back period. Thus, even though the med-term bias remains unchanged, it does mean the USD could be sensitive to mean reversion risks just like we saw on Friday while we are still trading close to YTD highs.
by thunderpips
1
GBPUSD - Further DeclineI have been following GBPUSD's recent decline from the 1.38000 level over the past few weeks across various intra day positions. I am anticipating price to fall further toward the September low at the 1.34000 psychological, which is also it's lowest price since December 2020. I have entered another short position today following the retest of the 1.36 level, which i am hopeful can hold as resistance. Let's see how this plays out over the next few days and if our target can be reached.
Short
by MMQ_FX
1
Do not miss this buy opportunity on GBPJPY with target of 155.00🔍GBPJPY has reached a very significant level which is around 153.00. The market respected this level several times, acting as resistance. We saw a strong breakout of this resistance where price was pushed to 158.235. As the market got back to this level of 153.00, I expect it to rise and the level acting as support this time. ❗️Take note: Do not take my idea as a general advice or signal and act upon it without your own analysis. I encourage you to follow me that when I post new updates you get informed of this. Please support this idea with a like and feel free to share your thoughts and opinions in the comment section below 👍 Many wishes and trade smart!
Long
by Forexintelligence_NA
1
GBPCAD LONGHey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring GBPCAD for a buying opportunity around 1,675 Respecting the ascending Monthly Trend in combination with the Monthly Demand Zone. Once we will receive any Bullish confirmation the trade will be executed. Trade Safe and use proper risk management on swing trades. because on the long term the movements are more large comparing to intraday trading. so you must use a larger SL with a lot size more smaller than the one you use for scalping. Trade Safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
6
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsUSD – The dollar rose slightly as the US Federal Reserve prepared on Tuesday to kick off its two-day policy meeting where it was expected to announce the start of tapering of its massive asset purchases put in place at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. GBP – The pound edged lower on Tuesday, hovering around a three-week low, pressured by uncertainty about whether the Bank of England will raise interest this week. Commenting on GBP, CIBC stated that “sterling looks set to remain on the defensive. Ahead of UK final services PMI tomorrow and the BoE decision on Thursday, analysts remain split between no change and a 15bp hike. We narrowly favour the former.” AUD – The Aussie dollar weakened across the board following the RBA’s overall dovish November policy meeting. Despite the central bank dropping its commitment to keep bond yields low. NAB noted that: “The RBA has made every effort to sound dovish. There’s nothing in the statement to endorse market prcing that has the RBA moving in 2022, so in that sense there’s clearly an attempt to push back on market pricing. Their forecasts, which we get on Friday, could be consistent with a move in 2023, but certainty not in 2022. In the last week or so there’s been a tug of war between the big falls we’ve seen in commodity prices and the big moves we’ve seen in Aussie interest rates, particularly real interest rates. Arguably now, that tug of war for the moment is being resolved with both lower rates and falling commodity prices, so on that basis I would say that the risk is that we could see some further slippage in the Aussie dollar near term.”
by thunderpips
4
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsGBP – The pound slipped on Monday, touching its lowest in more than two weeks versus the dollar and euro, pressured by uncertainty over the Bank of England’s policy stance and an escalating post-Brexit spat with France over fish. BMO Capital Markets added that “FX investors have become more concerned about the inflation backdrop in the context of hawkish shifts by numerous central banks. This has, in turn, reduced risk appetite levels and the extent of upward pressure on sterling/dollar. BoE hawkishness is unlikely to translate directly into pound appreciation versus the dollar in the current environment.”
by thunderpips
3
GBP JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE The Sep policy meeting from the BoE saw money markets rushing to price in a much faster and more aggressive policy path than previously expected. Even though this of course falls in line with our bullish bias for the Pound, we do think the market is a bit too aggressive too quick right now. The bank did explain that they now see inflation above 4% by Q4 of this year, and the possibility of more sticky inflation was the key reasons why we saw a 7-2 QE vote split with Saunders and Ramsden both dissenting to cut purchases. However, it’s important to note that the remaining 7 members still see inflation as transitory, and the fact that they expect CPI above 4% means any prints that don’t come close to that poses downside risks. Furthermore, even though the bank said their expectations of modest tightening has strengthened, the admitted that lots of uncertainties remain. A big one of these is the labour market, where even though the number of furloughed staff have decreased, that decrease has materially slowed from August which poses more uncertainty for the labour market. Thus, even though our bias remains unchanged, and we see the bank lifting rates in Q4, we do think the over optimistic moves in money markets poses short-term headwinds. Make sure to catch this week’s Top Trading Opportunity Report and Week Ahead Video in the terminal for more info on the event. 2. The country’s economic developments The successful vaccination program that allowed the UK to open faster and sooner than peers provided a favourable environment for Sterling and the strength of the economic recovery has meant solid growth differentials favouring GBP. However, a lot of these positives are arguably priced, and the recent slowdown in activity data that suggests peak growth has been reached and could mean an uphill push for GBP to see the same outperformance we saw earlier. With our above comments about money markets, it also means that there is now more risk to downside surprises than was the case a few months ago. 3. Political Developments Even though a Brexit deal was reached last year, some issues like the Northern Ireland protocol remains, and with neither side willing to budge it seems like these issues. Two weeks ago, the EU ramped up some political posturing with reports that said they are mulling terminating the Brexit deal if the UK triggers Article 16. For now, these are just threats, but with rates markets still very aggressively priced any further escalation could increase the odds of seeing repricing downside in the GBP, so one to keep on the radar alongside the fishing row with France. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +13338 with a net non-commercial position of +14953. Sterling have seen a very impressive rebound from recent lows as markets reacted positively to recent BoE comments which sparked additional downside in SONIA futures and expectations of higher rates. Right now, money markets are pricing in a 15-basis point hike in Q4 and four additional 25-basis point hikes by end 2022. Even though GBP has enjoyed a bounce back in positioning, Sterling has been mostly rangebound since the start of September as traders arguably want to keep their powder dry for this week’s very important BoE policy decision. Positioning is not in stress territory for large specs or leveraged funds which means positioning shouldn’t affect either hawkish or dovish tilts from the BoE this week. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y . However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. With bond yields looking a bit stretched at the current levels any decent mean reversion is expected to be supportive for the JPY, so it remains a key asset class to keep track. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -4302 with a net non-commercial position of -107036. The past few weeks of price action in the JPY was mostly driven by the excessive moves we saw in yields on the US side but was also exacerbated by risk on flows and rising oil prices which is a negative driver for Japan for its terms of trade. Even though the bias for the JPY remains firmly tilted to the downside, the moves across JPY pairs is arguably still looking stretched, and with both large speculators and leveraged funds firmly in net-short territory the odds of some mean reversion has increased. We would prefer waiting for some of the froth to mean revert before looking for new JPY shorts. As always, any major risk off flows can still support the JPY, especially with quite a sizable net-short position still built up in the currency for large speculators as well as leveraged funds, but rates have been the key driver in the short-term.
by thunderpips
1