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Poundsterling

GBP: Near term balance of risks points to weaker sterlingFundamental bias: Mildly bearish The next few weeks could be a vulnerable period for cable. First, the near-term EUR/USD upside potential has faded and short-term downside risks remain following the hawkish June FOMC meeting. Second, concerns about the spreading Delta variant should prevent any further hawkish repricing of the market outlook for the Bank of England. Third, the political risk factor is back, with growing signs that the UK government may want to unilaterally extend a grace period for processed meat exports to Northern Ireland that expires at the end of June. This would risk a tariff response from the EU. It is a busy week on the domestic data front. We don’t expect much surprise from the BoE meeting (Thursday) and the Bank is unlikely to say anything new after signalling it would not speculate on the timing of a first interest rate move. Also note that no new forecasts will be present in the June BoE meeting. As for the June PMIs (Wednesday), we may see a slight increase in the services index again, though the manufacturing PMIs may reverse lower modestly after the meaningful rise last month.
by thunderpips
GBPUSD : Correction about to Finish & Bull rally continuesSo... on GBPUSD on this Timeframe we are looking @ the following . 5 wave Impulse to the upside completed as indicated in our Blue degree. Correction which is a combination structure about to Complete @1.40500 to 1.41000 We have a WXY correction in our Orange Degree which also has another WXY smaller degree in our Y wave. The correction is gonna end @1.40500 to 1.41000 where we have FIB level 100% to 1.236 of WX of our smaller degree in Black. Also is @ a FIB zone or Level @1.618 of the wave W&X of the Higher degree in Orange. Lastly @1.40500 to 1.41000 is a FIB level 50% of the 5 wave Impulse from 1.38117 to 1.42114, so this is where we will be buying GBPUSD again. PLEASE follow your own RISK MANAGMENT and TRADE RESPONSIBLY.....
Long
by Theofylrx
GBPUSD 1.41128 + 0.01 % LONG IDEA * PRICE ACTION & STRUCTURE HELLO EVERYONE HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GOOD ONE, READY FOR THE MARKET THIS WEEK, HERE'S A LOOK AT THE POUND / U.S DOLLAR FROM THE 4 HOURLY CHART. The pair is still ranging within structure , looking for a continuation of this moves but should we see a break below of the structure that would signals continuation should confirmations signal that other wise capitalizing on the range on this one. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - INTRA-DAY TRADE
Long
by PULEMokhothu
JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSFundamental bias: Bearish 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor, especially in the current. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global synchronized economic recovery and reflation environment. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safehaven demand to diminish, resulting in a weak bearish fundamental outlook. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials as it affects carry trade dynamics. Like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow dependent on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. From the start of the year, (as the bias for US10Y started to tilt higher) the inverse correlation has been exceptionally strong over the past couple of weeks and moves in the US10Y continue to dominate JPY price action. As long as the med-term bias for US10Y remains titled higher, that should put additionally downside pressure on the JPY. As US yields broke below 1.5% last week, we have started to see an interesting divergence between that of the USDJPY and US10Y, with yields pushing lower but the USDJPY remaining rangebound and supported above key med-term supported. For now, the correlation remains intact, but if we see a continued divergence between the two assets that is something we’ll need to keep on the radar.
by thunderpips
4
GBP - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSFundamental bias: Bullish 1. Virus Situation The UK’s vaccination success has been a key driver of positive sentiment for GBP from the start of 2021 and has meant the county is on the verge of completely removing covid restrictions. One short-term negative is recent concerns about the Delta variant which could see a 2-4 week delay in the planned reopening scheduled for June 21. This doesn’t change the fundamental bullish outlook, but it is a short-term negative that could weigh on Sterling. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE Recent positive reactions from market participants to hawkish comments from the likes of Haldane and Vlieghe has shown the market’s predisposition for expecting the BOE to be the next major central bank to move away from ultra-easy policy. As long as the economic data shows that the recovery in underway, the market should continue to expect faster policy normalization in the months ahead and should be a positive input for Sterling. 3. The country’s economic developments The hopes of a possible faster economic reopening and subsequent recovery has seen both the BOE and IMF upgrade growth projections for the UK economy which has widened the growth differentials between other majors by quite a bit and is something that should continue to be a supportive factor for GBP as long as the data continues to show better-than-expected prints. Something that we should be mindful of here is that a lot of the positives that has driven Sterling higher in 2021 is arguably already be reflected in the price, but as long as the data continues to surprise to the upside the trend should be supportive for the GBP as it should provide further support for policy normalization from the BOE. 4. Political Developments Remember Brexit? Yeah, me neither, but it came back into focus in the form of the recent punchy rhetoric between the UK and EU regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol. The EU reported that they will take a measured response to any further unilateral moves by the UK to delay implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol. The risk to the current dilemma is that it forces the EU’s hand to retaliate with possible sanctions or tiggering retaliatory measures through the Trade and Cooperation Agreement. For now, markets are not too concerned about this as this is seen as the usual political posturing with the grace period for the Protocol is set to expire this month, but it could continue to weigh on short-term sentiment if we see more punchy rhetoric or significant retaliatory threats. As a result of the possible delayed reopening, as well as current positives reflected in recent price action, as well as the political concerns, we have adjusted our STRONG BULLISH bias for Sterling to BULLISH.
by thunderpips
1
POUND/DOLLAR - LOOKING FOR ANY SELL LEADING INTO OUR BUY ZONES!Technical Overview: - GBP/USD Check out our previous posted analysis Analysis is only 1 piece of the puzzle 🧩 Our analysis is a sentiment for the upcoming week, month. Use this as a weather forecast, you are the person that has to put on a jacket when it’s raining. Trade this sentiment based off your own entry strategy at the right time. Flow with the Devil 😈 Trade with the manipulation👾 STAY UPDATED BELOW!
Long
by FlyDownX
GBPUSD Weekly Chart Wyckoff Accumulation Events and Phases Hello Traders, TGIF all! I observed a Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern on the weekly chart of GBPUSD and I wanted to share the event and phases of Wyckoff schematics. Wyckoff(1873-1934) was a pioneer in the technical analysis of the stock market. At the age of 15, he started his job as a stock runner for a brokerage in NY. He observed the studies of JP Morgan and Livermore at his time and he arranged their practices into his technique and made them a method to analysis the financial markets. His influential approach to the market helped him develop his work and he founded a school that became Stock Market Institute later. Wyckoff analyzed trading ranges and the power of the break-outs from that trading ranges. He studied phases and levels of price that moves in harmony, hinting analysts estimated price targets in a pattern. Phase A describes the end of the down trend. Up to selling climax , supply exceeds demand that caused drop in the price. Phase B means building phase of price action. Market participants want to observe a cause to buy an asset and may want to observe how fragile the assets valuation. In that Phase, While observing the assets, participants interest is not only observation but also low prices. Race to buy at a lower price establishes a trading range and creates a wave between going up to resistance and down to support line until the observation on diminishing the volume on down moves of the price. Low volume on price drop means, supply starts to fall down while demand stills. Phase C is the phase that asset price goes through a hard test with the remaining supply. As seen on chart, Spring or Shakeout is the level that price moves below the support level and quickly turns back into the trading range while skimming the cream of sellers. That's a bull trap! Phase D is the phase that demand starts to exceed supply which moves price higher with heavy volume. We should observe the price at least move to resistance line of the trend line in Phase D! Price leaves the trading range in Phase E and demand takes the control of the price. We can observe some small trading ranges which are in favor of the price increase. Lets see how this will result. Wyckoff's methods are still applicable today and love to see his contribution to financial markets. Hope you all enjoy my work! Please leave a like and comment of what you think. Trade safe and have a nice Weekend!
Long
by gorkemaydogan
JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSFundamental bias: Bearish 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor, especially in the current. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global synchronized economic recovery and reflation environment. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safehaven demand to diminish, resulting in a weak bearish fundamental outlook. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials as it affects carry trade dynamics. Like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow dependent on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. From the start of the year, (as the bias for US10Y started to tilt higher) the inverse correlation has been exceptionally strong over the past couple of weeks and moves in the US10Y continue to dominate JPY price action. As long as the med-term bias for US10Y remains titled higher, that should put additionally downside pressure on the JPY. Month-end flows was the main culprit to blame for the big jolt higher in the JPY at the end of May as Citi bank noted that Japanese investors are expected to sell the JPY in order to hedge against foreign bonds. With month-end flows out of the way, we expect US Yields once again to be the main driver for the JPY in the weeks ahead which means key economic data that influences bonds will be important to watch for the JPY apart from the overall risk tone.
by thunderpips
2
GBP - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSFundamental bias: Strong bullish 1. Virus Situation Regarding the UK's coronavirus outlook, this remains encouraging with the UK's vaccine program having administered at least one dose to over half of the UK population. Given the current success of its vaccine program, the UK is now in the early stages of lifting lockdown restrictions. While the UK's coronavirus outlook is improving, we expect GBP to remain well supported. The biggest risk to this view is the current challenges regarding the AstraZeneca vaccine, which the UK is very reliant upon to reach their vaccination targets. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE From the start of the year the BOE had a change of heart regarding negative interest rates when on the 12th of Jan Governor Bailey pushed back against negative rates, and that view was confirmed in the BOE’s meeting on the 4th of February where they firmly pushed back against negative rates. Even though the BOE is nowhere close to hawkish, their less dovish demeanour regarding the overall economic outlook (and unphased approach to rising yields) have seen markets shifting their monetary policy expectations from expecting the next move to be a 10 bsp cut to now expecting the next move to be a hike of 10 bsp. The most recent BOE meeting wasn’t as hawkish as markets were hoping for, but we did see the bank make some substantial upgrades to the economic outlook and confirms that the bank is moving further away from ultra-easy policy and gradually towards normalization. The market showed their predisposition after the strong reaction from BOE’s Vlieghe this past week after he noted that there is a likelihood for earlier hikes in the cash rate if the economy progresses in line with their estimates. The comments were very conditional and also came from a member who is leaving in August, but the hawkish reaction from the market shows their inclination that the BOE is the next in line for a hawkish tilt. 3. The country’s economic developments The hopes of a possible faster economic reopening and subsequent recovery has seen both the BOE and IMF upgrade growth projections for the UK economy which has widened the growth differentials between other majors by quite a bit and is something that should continue to be a supportive factor for GBP. Due to the continued improvement in economic data as the reopening accelerates, we have updated out Fundamental bias for Sterling from Bullish to Strong Bullish. It is true though that a lot of the positive surrounding the UK’s economic recovery should already be reflected in the price, but as long as the data continues to surprise to the upside the trend should be supportive for the GBP as it should provide further support for policy normalization from the BOE.
by thunderpips
GBP/AUD short IdeaFundamental side of the idea : The AUD by contrast is currently pressured alongside falling Iron prices. If these prices keep falling then AUD will face weakness. The Australian economy exports large amounts of Iron ore, so its price impacts the AUD. On The Other side we are seeing Inflation climbing faster , and Metals are making new High , and that should serve and make AUD strong again . Ultimately, the pound remains sensitive to the trajectory of UK inflation and the Bank of England’s monetary policy. UK inflation jumped to 1.5% in April from 0.7% in the prior month, though remains well below the BoE’s 2% target. There is certainly plenty of scope for the BoE to substantially tighten monetary policy should it view inflation as a threat, a development that could be significantly bullish for the pound. But we still Far away from that . Technical side of the idea : According to the technical analysis of the pair: So far, despite the weakness of the upward Trend , i am seeing a significant weakness on GBP , starting from forming a continuation pattern , to not breaking above some Fib Levels that were critical . P.S : The weak US dollar provides some reason to be Bullish on the Australian Dollar . Thank you . Do Not hesitate to Contact me For any kind of Quist . S.Sadki
Short
by SaraSadki