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Poundsterling

GBP: Current Sentiment DriversLatest Developments: March 31 – GDP for Q4 printed at 1.3% Q/Q and -7.3% Y/Y, revised from 1.0% and -7.8%, respectively. The report published by the ONS also noted that household savings for the quarter grew to their biggest ever level. This is supportive of recent comments from the BoE, who expect a significant increase in consumer activity once lockdowns are lifted. March 30 – The UK’s coronavirus count increased to 4,341,736 cases (+4,040). March 24 – CPI for February slowed to 0.4% Y/Y (prior 0.7%) and printed at 0.1% M/M (prior -0.2%). Core CPI slowed to 0.9% Y/Y (prior 1.4%) and printed at 0.0% M/M (prior -0.5%). March 18 – At their March meeting, the BoE kept its official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10% and its QE programme at £895 billion. The BoE added that they do not intend to tighten policy until there is clear evidence that there is significant progress towards eliminating spare capacity and achieving its 2% inflation goal. February 23 – The Unemployment Rate for December increased to 5.1% from a prior of 5.0%. Employment Change printed at -114K while Average Earnings printed at 4.7% 3M Y/Y. For January, Claimant Count Change printed at -20.0K. Future Sentiment Shifts: There are several risks to GBP’s outlook, particularly with respect to the UK’s coronavirus/lockdown outlook and interest rate expectations. Of these two, expect the UK’s coronavirus outlook to play the more influential role in the short term as the UK’s coronavirus vaccine rollout continues to show signs of stabilizing its breakout, which in turn, should allow the UK to ease lockdown restrictions in the months ahead. However, in the medium term, as the market’s focus shifts, monetary policy should dominate. Regarding monetary policy, risks still remain; although, further easing appears unlikely at this point and markets looking for a hike in 2022. Primary Drivers: Bank of England – Monetary Policy in the UK remains highly influential to GBP’s fundamental outlook. Expectations for policy tightening should prove GBP positive, while expectations for policy easing should prove GBP negative. Brexit – The outlook for the UK’s exit from the EU in December remains a key influence for GBP as it poses significant risks to the UK’s economic outlook. With the UK set to leave at the end of the year and progress in negotiations between the UK and the EUR significantly hampered by the coronavirus outbreak, risks remain firmly tilted to the downside with a hard Brexit or even no deal Brexit remaining distinct possibilities.
by thunderpips
8
GBP: Current Sentiment DriversLatest Developments: March 28 – The UK’s coronavirus count increased to 4,333,042 cases (+3,862). March 24 – CPI for February slowed to 0.4% Y/Y (prior 0.7%) and printed at 0.1% M/M (prior -0.2%). Core CPI slowed to 0.9% Y/Y (prior 1.4%) and printed at 0.0% M/M (prior -0.5%). March 18 – At their March meeting, the BoE kept its official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10% and its QE programme at £895 billion. The BoE added that they do not intend to tighten policy until there is clear evidence that there is significant progress towards eliminating spare capacity and achieving its 2% inflation goal. February 23 – The Unemployment Rate for December increased to 5.1% from a prior of 5.0%. Employment Change printed at -114K while Average Earnings printed at 4.7% 3M Y/Y. For January, Claimant Count Change printed at -20.0K. November 12 – Preliminary Q3 GDP printed at 15.5% Q/Q and -9.6% Y/Y versus expectations for 15.8% and -9.4% respectively. Future Sentiment Shifts: There are several risks to GBP’s outlook, particularly with respect to the UK’s coronavirus/lockdown outlook and interest rate expectations. Of these two, expect the UK’s coronavirus outlook to play the more influential role in the short term as the UK’s coronavirus vaccine rollout continues to show signs of stabilizing its breakout, which in turn, should allow the UK to ease lockdown restrictions in the months ahead. However, in the medium term, as the market’s focus shifts, monetary policy should dominate. Regarding monetary policy, risks still remain; although, further easing appears unlikely at this point and markets looking for a hike in 2022. Primary Drivers: Bank of England – Monetary Policy in the UK remains highly influential to GBP’s fundamental outlook. Expectations for policy tightening should prove GBP positive, while expectations for policy easing should prove GBP negative. Brexit – The outlook for the UK’s exit from the EU in December remains a key influence for GBP as it poses significant risks to the UK’s economic outlook. With the UK set to leave at the end of the year and progress in negotiations between the UK and the EUR significantly hampered by the coronavirus outbreak, risks remain firmly tilted to the downside with a hard Brexit or even no deal Brexit remaining distinct possibilities.
by thunderpips
GBP - BULLISHThe focus for GBP is likely to be firmly fixed on the coronavirus outbreak now that the UK and EU have reached a Brexit agreement. Of course, although the market's focus on Brexit is now likely to markedly fade, the UK and EU's relationship will still remain of importance for GBP. This has been highlighted in recent sessions by the rise in UK/EU tensions over coronavirus vaccine supplies and distribution. Regarding the UK's coronavirus outlook, this remains encouraging with the UK's vaccine program having administered at least one dose to almost half of the UK population. Given the current success of its vaccine program, the UK is now in the early stages of lifting lockdown restrictions. While the UK's coronavirus outlook is improving, we expect GBP to remain well supported, resulting in a bullish fundamental outlook.
by thunderpips
10
12-Month GBP/AUD Forecast: 1.72 Says Westpac AnalystForeign exchange analysts at Westpac expects that near-term yield trends will support the Pound-to-Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate, especially with a less dovish tone from the Bank of England (BoE). Overall global trends, however, will see a reversal later in the year, especially with the Australian trade surplus. “The Aussie stands to gain more from a synchronised global rebound over 2021 than the pound does, especially with Asia likely to keep outperforming. Near term GBP/AUD could rally a bit further, towards 1.8200, but our baseline forecasts are lower over the year, to 1.7500 then 1.7200.” GBP/AUD has not traded as low as 1.72 since January 2018. BoE stance underpins the Pound Sterling GBP/AUD has posted net gains in 2021 with less dovish rhetoric from the Bank of England one important element. Westpac notes; “BoE official rhetoric has been mixed but overall less dovish than the RBA’s.” In this context, 2-year yield spreads have moved into the Pound Sterling’s favour Looking at Reserve Bank policy, Westpac expects smaller QE packages in late 2021 and in 2022 as the labour market still has plenty of slack. Westpac also notes optimism over the UK outlook. “The UK has vaccinated a larger proportion of its population than most major economies, which should reinforce the BoE’s optimism over economic recovery later in 2021.” Trade surplus supports the Australian Dollar There has been a sharp turnaround in the Australian trade position. The latest data recorded a surplus of A$8.1bn for February from A$8.2bn the previous month and has been consistently in surplus during the past year. There has also been a sharp turnaround in the current account with an A$14.5bn for the fourth quarter of 2020 from A$10.7bn previously. Westpac also expects that the Australian economy will continue to draw support from further strength in the Asian economy which will feed through into the trade account. Westpac notes; “In isolation, yield spreads still suggest downside risk for AUD. But Australia’s historically rare current account surpluses provide solid insulation.” Both currencies will tend to be vulnerable if there is a sustained deterioration in risk appetite. In contrast, there will be scope for net gains if global equity markets post further strong gains.
by thunderpips
10
GBP/USD to slide in the coming months - Credit AgricoleCredit Agricole CIB Research discusses GBP/USD outlook and targets the pair at 1.35 over the coming 3-months. "Growing UK vaccine rollout and escalating post-Brexit tensions with the EU to cloud the UK economic outlook even after lockdown conditions are lifted in Q2. The US economy to boom in Q2. The GBP/USD rally contributed to the more aggressive tightening of the UK financial conditions relative to the US. This could make the BoE more dovish than the Fed". "Our analysis suggests that overvalued GBP/USD could be one of the best G10 FX hedges against the twin risks of elevated UST yields and risk aversion in Q2".
by thunderpips
4
GBP/USD Forecast: Long then shortHere is an update on the GBP/USD pair RECAP: (Previous Analysis) In our previous analysis GBP/USD was trading at 1.38400 We were bullish on the pair but cautioned that if the pair failed to break above minor resistance @ 1.38700 it will fall back to 1.37 and that's exactly what the pair did Our Sell Stop order was triggered & we managed to bank 400 pips over 20 positions on the pair. WHAT TO EXPECT: Currently @ 1.36800 The pair has broken below its Ascending channel, from here the pair might fall to 1.35 But 1st we expect the pair to retrace at least back to 1.37600 which is 50% retracement level If it breaks above this level then the pair might go back to 1.38 Bearish harmonic pattern on the monthly time frame MN suggests a possible change in the direction of GBP/USD long term. OUR POSITIONS: Buy Stop @: 1.37200 Buy Stop TP @: 1.37400 Sell Stop @: 1.36500 Sell Stop TP: 1.36300 link to previous analysis below Note: All investments involve risk, our analysis and trading strategy does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make.
Long
by fxspott
1
GBP: Current Sentiment DriversLatest Developments: March 22 – The UK’s coronavirus count increased to 4,301,925 cases (+5,342). March 18 – At their March meeting, the BoE kept its official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10% and its QE programme at £895 billion. The BoE added that they do not intend to tighten policy until there is clear evidence that there is significant progress towards eliminating spare capacity and achieving its 2% inflation goal. February 23 – The Unemployment Rate for December increased to 5.1% from a prior of 5.0%. Employment Change printed at -114K while Average Earnings printed at 4.7% 3M Y/Y. For January, Claimant Count Change printed at -20.0K. February 17 – CPI for January increased to 0.7% Y/Y (prior 0.6%) and printed at -0.2% M/M (prior 0.3%). Core CPI remained at 1.4% Y/Y and printed at -0.5% M/M (prior 0.3%). November 12 – Preliminary Q3 GDP printed at 15.5% Q/Q and -9.6% Y/Y versus expectations for 15.8% and -9.4% respectively. Future Sentiment Shifts: There are several risks to GBP’s outlook, particularly with respect to the UK’s coronavirus/lockdown outlook and interest rate expectations. Of these two, expect the UK’s coronavirus outlook to play the more influential role in the short term as the UK’s coronavirus vaccine rollout continues to show signs of stabilizing its breakout, which in turn, should allow the UK to ease lockdown restrictions in the months ahead. However, in the medium term, as the market’s focus shifts, monetary policy should dominate. Regarding monetary policy, risks still remain; although, further easing appears unlikely at this point and markets looking for a hike in 2022. Primary Drivers: Bank of England – Monetary Policy in the UK remains highly influential to GBP’s fundamental outlook. Expectations for policy tightening should prove GBP positive, while expectations for policy easing should prove GBP negative. Brexit – The outlook for the UK’s exit from the EU in December remains a key influence for GBP as it poses significant risks to the UK’s economic outlook. With the UK set to leave at the end of the year and progress in negotiations between the UK and the EUR significantly hampered by the coronavirus outbreak, risks remain firmly tilted to the downside with a hard Brexit or even no deal Brexit remaining distinct possibilities.
by thunderpips
GBP NZD - buying imbalancesHello traders and analysts. Below is our setup for the Minor pair - GBP NZD . Zone colour Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances - Price has rejected multiple times the zone with 1.81 being the lowest wick on a monthly close. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance Weekly imbalances Price has rejected the monthly zone as well as on a weekly, the weekly close is showing bullish signs as the candle closes are creating higher lows. Further to this, the price analysis of the candle sticks show a strong engulfing whipsaw of a bearish week followed by a bullish week immediately after. This shows that price action on a lower time frame will indicate that the profit taking for the sellers are transitioning the imbalance of sellers to buyers. The gap from this zone where the imbalance has arisen, from a technical stand point gives the probability of the fresh zone on the monthly is the open target. Daily imbalances The current possible imbalances are marked and align with the price targets where price will look to reject using a Fibonacci extension tool, so these align with the strategy. On a daily timeframe, the price closes begin to show the consolidation and price range coming into effect. Where we will look to buy next: Between 1.906 - 1.91 if price retraces to this zone again. Here is a possible scenario of what the next entry could be if price enters the grey zone. Targets: The price targets set are GBP NZD 2.08 + - with a longer term final profit target of 2.15. Why? Because this is where our imbalance wick fill is. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
GBP/USD Forecast: Long then ShortHere is our analysis on GBP/USD: RECAP: (Previous Analysis) In our previous analysis GBP/USD was trading at 1.39700 We were bearish on the pair but did caution that the pair might reach 1.40 before falling back to the 1.38 The pair did exactly as we predicted triggering our Sell Stop @ 1.39100 & hitting our TP @ 1.38900 enabling us to bank 400 pips on the pair. WHAT TO EXPECT: Currently at 1.38460 We expect the pair to be bullish from here as it is trading at the lower end of its Ascending Channel The pair might test resistance @ 1.39100 if it manages to break above its minor resistance @ 1.38700 Failure to break above this resistance we might see the pair fall to the 1.37 level OUR POSITIONS: Buy Stop @: 1.38800 Buy Stop TP @: 1.39 Sell Stop @: 1.38 Sell Stop TP @: 1.37800 link to our previous analysis below Note: All investments involve risk, our analysis and trading strategy does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make.
Long
by fxspott
3
GBP/USD - Following Oversold Zones (LIQUIDITY UP)Technical Overview: - GBP/USD Check out our previous posted analysis As mentioned last week, we were waiting for price action to come down to our long price targets to then look for further confirmation. We had a very busy week filled with fundamentals topping it off with Powell speech. Friday had to take a step back and rethink it self based on the fundamentals Last week we had a bigger range, we worked with 4 different zones and 2 of those had been reached we are now working within the 2 other zones we had 2 buy zones 2 sell zones, bigger range, smaller range we had cleared the range within we are now working with the outer range We see a lot of liquidity built up and this comes from whoever had seen this as "resistance" while on the lower side we see the same thing happen as "Support" and that is why we are anticipating price to take out both imaginary levels We marked potential buy zones the lower being the better, due to our strategy, we can look to trade longs in both zones and exit as intraday Price can react off the first buy zone and intraday long then follow up and go lower the next day, that's why an intraday strategy must be in place. HTF suggests downside but the outer structure remains bullish targeting last highs created few weeks back. Analysis is only 1 piece of the puzzle 🧩 Our analysis is a sentiment for the upcoming week, month. Use this as a weather forecast, you are the person that has to put on a jacket when it’s raining. Trade this sentiment based off your own entry strategy at the right time. Flow with the Devil 😈 Trade with the manipulation👾
by FlyDownX
2
GBPAUD Forecast!! Looking Great!!!PoundAussie PA has been moving down nice and corrective on the higher TF. There are a lot of equal highs and equal lows forming, these will get swiped with all the liquidity above and below them. I will be looking for continuation patterns on the lower TF. The easiest way to trade GA is to dissect it into stages to make it more visible to see the patterns, The same fractal patterns happen over and over again!! We could get some asian sweeps Monday and Tuesday.
by Jake-from-the-trading-Cartel
1
GBPUSD Forecast upcoming week!!!!! Great potentialGU Price action is consolidating nicely, Once we get a swipe of the liquidity or a Imbalance fill….. there is potential for a 300-400 pip move coming!!! I missed a GU short on Friday as I was in the EU Short! Let see what opportunities London session on Monday shows us. I will be looking for continuation patterns once I have a change of trend from my POI. Some nice Asian sweeps could be on the cards Monday and Tuesday for short term trades! CONSISTNECY IS THE KEY!!!
Short
by Jake-from-the-trading-Cartel
1
GBPUSD - Potential BatThe Bat pattern is a precise harmonic pattern that frequently yields exact and sharp reversals. The 0.886 retracement is a powerful completion point and the defining limit within the PRZ. 1. B point retracement of the XA leg must be less than 0.618 with a 0.50 or 0.382 retracement preferred. 2. Precise 0.886 D point retracement of the XA leg as the defining limit within the PRZ. 3. Minimum 1.618 BC projection with extreme extensions (2.0–2.618) possible. 4. Minimum AB=CD completion, although an Alternate 1.27 AB=CD is more common and preferred. 5. C point retracement can vary between a 0.382 to an 0.886.
by reklaw
GBP/USD forecast: LongHere is an update on GBP/USD RECAP: (Previous Analysis) In our previous analysis GBP/USD was trading at 1.38300 We were bullish on the pair after the formation of a bullish harmonic pattern in our previous analysis The pair continued to fall to 1.38 before being bullish As the pair began its bull run it triggered our Buy Stop & hit our TP from our previous analysis enabling us to bank 400 pips from our Buy Stop orders. The pair then fell to support @ 1.38500 before going up again thanks to the FOMC which we also capitalized on. WHAT TO EXPECT: Currently @ 1.39700 With a key event approaching the GBP/USD might either fall back to 1.38 or break above 1.40 But for now, like the EUR/USD we expect the pair to retrace back to resistance @ 1.39500 before continuing its uptrend If the pair falls below 1.39500 it might trade back in the 1.38 range GBP is still bullish in the long term. OUR POSITIONS: Buy Stop @: 1.40100 Buy Stop TP @: 1.40300 Sell Stop @: 1.39100 Sell Stop TP @: 1.38900 link to previous analysis below Note: All investments involve risk, our analysis and trading strategy does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make.
Long
by fxspott
GBP/USD Forecast: LongHere is what to expect on GBP/USD RECAP: (Previous Analysis) In our previous analysis GBP/USD was trading at 1.39200 We expected the pair to be bullish on the pair but did caution that the pair might be bearish due to weak data that came in on Friday & also if the pair struggles to break the down-trendline. The pair fell to lows of 1.38600 triggering our Sell Stop @ 1.38900 & hitting our target @ 1.38700 banking us 400 pips on the pair. WHAT TO EXPECT: Currently at 1.38300 Pair has broken below support/resistance @ 1.38600 We expect the pair to retrace back to that support @ 1.38600 & try to break above it. If the pair fails to break above it we might see it fall to last weeks lows of 1.37700 Bullish Harmonic pattern forming on the 1H chart suggests a possible reversal if confirmed OUR POSITIONS: Buy Stop @ 1.38700 Buy Stop TP @: 1.38900 Sell Stop @: 1.38 Sell Stop TP @: 1.37800 link to previous analysis below Note: All investments involve risk, our analysis and trading strategy does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make.
Long
by fxspott