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Poundsterling

Weekly recap: Pound’s Attempts to Reverse See Substantial GainsGBP/USD Last week, 28th September – 4th October, cable was on a tear, being supported by good GDP stats released on Wednesday. However, the upside price action remained under pressure from the lack of a breakthrough in Brexit trade deals talks between the EU and the UK. With the end of talks on 16th October, the negotiators have two weeks to reach a consensus. On Monday, 28th September, GBP/USD opened at 1.2770, 30 pips above the previous week’s close. Rising as high as 1.2930, the pair closed the day at 1.2829. The price continued edging up on Tuesday and Wednesday, closing above 1.29 on Wednesday’s trading session. Rollercoaster volatility was seen on Thursday, with the price going from 1.2950 to 1.2819 between 5:00 and 9:00 UTC, rising as high as 1.2978 in the subsequent four hours, to close the day at 1.2884. On Friday, the pair recovered the losses undergone throughout the day and closed in the green at 1.2929. The cross rate is still currently in a downtrend because last week’s high was still below the previous high recorded on 17th September. However, this upswing price action consistently going throughout the week is a good indication of buying pressure behind the British Pound. On top of that, the pair bounced off the lower boundary of the uptrend price channel that has been following the GBP/USD price action from 18th May. This clearly shows that the market still sees positivity in the British economy, even despite the lackluster developments in Brexit trade deal talks. The closest goal at hand for GBP/USD in reversing the downtrend is breaking through the 1.3021 daily resistance level. Once the price capitalizes above it, the downtrend will be over, and move buying volume will start to accumulate, adding to cable’s recovery. GBP/EUR On the week of 8th September, GBP/EUR opened at 1.0954, following the moderate upside retracement in the pair a week before. The GBP/EUR trading has been very mixed, with green and red candlesticks alternating throughout the week on the daily timeframe. Traders tried to take down the 1.1055 daily resistance level in one aggressive upswing on Monday, but that was doomed to fail, with selling orders placed right above it and the 50-day SMA clearly adding to the downside pressure on the pair. After that, volatility cooled down, and the price closed slightly below Monday’s open on Tuesday. Later in the week, mixed trading continued, with sellers and buyers trying to take the upper hand within a limited price range with no clear result, which indicates a lack of clear reading of the market situation and divided sentiment. On Friday’s session, the pair edged slightly higher, being propelled by the negative CPI (0.2% versus 0.5 market consensus) and core CPI (-0.3% versus -0.2% market consensus) in the eurozone. However, the price edged higher to run into the 50-day SMA, which continues to put pressure on the pair’s upside attempts. On top of that, the 1.1055 is another key barrier, which is where the sellers are ready to drive the pair lower once it comes close. Breaking above the 50-day SMA and the 1.1055 level is clearly seen as key things for continued EUR/GBP upside price action, and both barriers are the sellers’ last lines of defense. With the ongoing uptrend that began on 13th September, the trend power is on the buyers’ side, but the lack of a breakthrough in Brexit trade deal talks may tilt the balance in sellers’ favor.
B
by KonstantinAnissimov
Weekly recap: GBP/USD above 1.2700, GBP/EUR above 1.095GBP/USD The week ending 27th September opened for GBP/USD at 1.2913. Until Wednesday, 23rd September, the price was in a steady correction, but having reached the 1.2689 daily support level, the pair consolidated above the support level. There have been two more attempts at driving the price below 1.2689 in the week’s two subsequent trading sessions, but both attempts were denied. The stabilization of the GBP/USD price above 1.2700 gives some hope of an uptrend reversal to the buyers. This move is especially notable in the light of last week’s rally in the U.S. dollar index, which saw the greenback add 1.70% against the basket of six majors. Probably some positivity was added by Great Britain’s Finance Minister Rishi Sunak saying on Thursday that his staff was working on plans to support jobs over the winter as reported by Reuters. Also, the ascending channel, formed using the lows of 18th May and 30th June, is still working for the pair, with the price clinging to its lower line from Wednesday through to Friday. However, there is still much downside pressure behind the pound, largely generated by the uncertainty around the Brexit trade deal talks and by the returning measures against COVID-19 spread in the UK, with the numbers of newly infected people growing fast. The recent restrictions included the ordering at the pubs to close at 22:00 and postponing football fans’ return at the matches of the English Premier League that was scheduled for the 1st October for an uncertain period of time. This week on Wednesday, the UK's GDP for Q2 will be released, with the market expecting a shrinking of 20.4% and Boris Johnson hoping to see an upbeat figure that will demonstrate the efficiency of his government. The report will show whether there are implications of ongoing positivity in the British economy or a lack thereof. Therefore, there might be reduced volatility in the pair before the data release, with high-net-worth traders saving their liquidity to make a decisive move when the report is published. The closest goal for the buyers this week be a breakthrough above the 50-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, which slid below 1.2850 at last week’s close. The British GDP data will decide much in this respect, and if the breakthrough happens as a continuation of the ongoing consolidation above 1.2700, it will ease selling pressure on the pair and generate more buying volume. GBP/EUR EUR/GBP opened last week at 1.0905, going as low as 1.0848 on Tuesday and closing Tuesday’s session at 1.0877. On Wednesday, the pair began a rebound, which saw it retrace the downside price action of the first two days and rise to 1.0954 at the week’s close. Last week, the pair was trading around the 50-period simple moving average on the 4-hour timeframe, going below and above it multiple times, having finished the week comfortably above it, which makes further upside price action only more likely. Local resistance is awaiting GBP/EUR at 1.1000, where the previous downside reversal happened. If that barrier gets broken, further upside opportunities will be open before the pair. But that will quite heavily depend on the UK’s economic outlook and the developments around the talks between the UK and EU on a Brexit trade deal. From the graphic viewpoint, an ascending triangle might be forming now on the GBP/EUR daily chart, adding to the chances of a breakthrough above 1.1000. This level will remain key for this week: if the level stagnates below it, it may put the sellers in control, but a breakthrough will generate a stronger uptrend. Before that happens, the pair will contact the 20-day simple moving average, which is hanging above the price at around 1.0984. The Eurozone CPI that will be released this week on Tuesday is an important package of economic data. The EU CPI and the British GDP will be the two most important reports this week and will largely affect the odds of a breakthrough above the resistance level at 1.1000.
by KonstantinAnissimov
GBPNZD on Focus! Important Breakout Attempt! hey guys, I want you to pay attention to 1.905 - 1.926 horizontal trading range on GBPNZD. in July, once the market reached 1.905 structure low, it started to consolidate and coil within that range, until it broke its upper boundary and started to grow. such a scenario may repeat again. the price is once again stuck within that range and daily candle close above its resistance will be a strong bullish signal. next goal will be 1.95 in case of rejection and return of the market within the range, wait for another breakout.
Long
by VasilyTrader
13
GBP Market Commentary - Pound Under PressureFundamental Analysis: UK Economy currently holds a significant current account deficit of £21.1 billion (Q1 2020) or 3.8% of GDP Indicates a substantial deficit of savers, the UK economy is therefore in need of international savers to plug the gap, however international savers are only willing to come in when there is a strong fundamental outlook. Over the past few years, investment into the UK as a percentage of GDP has dropped significantly, dropping below France and Germany, highlighting investors are not liking what they see, i.e too much political uncertainty! Continued uncertainty leads to a further reduction in investment flows leading to potential downward pressure on the value of sterling. The political and economical future of the UK is looking anything but certain. UK Health Secretary recently warned the UK is at COVID tipping point, with a recent rapidly rising rate of infection, forcing pressure on the Govemernet to introduce further tough nationwide restrictions in a desperate attempt to avoid a 'disastrous' second lockdown. Further uncertainty over Brexit has also reached a critical point. Boris Johnson latest manoeuvres led to a full-scale rebellion by Conservative MPs and widespread recriminations over his plan to break international law. Technical Analysis: The GBP/USD looks to be currently undergoing an ABC correction to the downside after an impulsive leg recovery following the initial COVID sell-off. A daily close below June highs of the 1.28 handle would be significant, a clear indication of the bears fully taking control
Short
by RaphFX
EURGBP: How to Catch Bullish Continuation??? hey traders, if you missed a long trade from a key level on EURGBP, pay attention to a minor ascending triangle on 4H today. wait for a 4h candle close above its horizontal resistance and buy aggressively or on a retest. your fist goal will be 0.925 level. concerning a save stop placement, I would set it based on the last higher low within a flag formation. if the market respects the resistance and drops setting a new structure low, our setup will be invalid.
Long
by VasilyTrader
12
GBPUSD - Things could take a turn...GBP - Cable...Yes, we do have further Brexit talks this week...! Regarding Brexit we do have till 15th October - For further information, check Brexit schedule online.. Brexit has been an on going thing that really both sides don't agree on much at all. However, there is time to resolve although for a deal could be looking slim the further we approach the key date if we continue the same flow they've been going which could decrease GBP depending on the type of deal if negative or no deal at all. Daily Time frame - Technical aspects: - Pattern, within a longer term channel - Pattern, smaller rising wedge within channel - Fib Retracement - We could decline near support area of channel = 1.31300 areas ..Although I have my eye on 0.618 = 200 EMA 1.27/1.26 areas (That's if we do come out of this bullish channel...! - Fib Retracement - We could even go towards support areas of this channel 1.31300 areas then further rise towards 261.8, which measured the wedge formation towards the length of those areas and good resistance area of the channel as well. However, keep in mind that is a large move heading towards 1.40 if we do go towards those areas. For further confirmation, if the bulls get in control we could need to retest the 1.35 areas closing above. On Thursday, we have the ECB meeting regarding policy matters and various other topics as we are aware Feds have shifted the market towards a dovish view and ECB does not like higher monetary price it will be interesting how they approach this meeting and what kind of outlook will be given, which could shift the major pairs, that might be perhaps easier to trade....but most importantly do keep an eye on EUR we could either go back towards 1.19 or 1.1750-1.16 areas, and if there is no change 1.19-1.20. Key Tip: Don't rush to trade, add further confirmation towards your plan...! All the best & have a successful week of trading. Remember: just a trade idea, not a recommendation. Trade Journal.
by Trade_Journal