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GBP/JPY: Bearish Bias Pushes Price Toward Key Support LevelOver the last three trading weeks, the GBP/JPY pair has depreciated by more than 3%, establishing a firm bearish bias in favor of the yen in the short term. This perspective has remained intact primarily due to growing expectations of a more dovish monetary policy from the Bank of England, which left its interest rate unchanged at 4.5% in its latest meeting. Markets now anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming May 8 meeting, potentially bringing the rate down to 4.25%. This expectation is supported by the fact that inflation in the UK currently stands at 2.6%, close to the central bank’s 2% target, further justifying the possibility of additional rate cuts in the short term. Lower interest rates in the UK reduce the appeal of GBP-denominated assets, which in turn can drive selling pressure on the pound. Safe-Haven Demand for the Yen It is also important to note that the Japanese yen is historically seen as a safe-haven currency, due to its relative stability compared to other major currencies. As the global tariff conflict intensifies and economic growth prospects weaken, demand for the yen is likely to increase further in the short term. This dynamic could lead to continued downside pressure on GBP/JPY. Broad Sideways Channel Still Intact Since August 2024, GBP/JPY has traded within a well-defined sideways channel, with resistance around 198.676 and support near 186.932. Recent bearish moves have not been strong enough to break below this key support, suggesting that this lateral formation remains the dominant structure for upcoming sessions. Indicators Show Growing Neutrality: MACD: The MACD histogram is currently sitting around the neutral 0 line, indicating that the average momentum of recent moving averages remains in balance, with no dominant force in either direction. RSI: A similar situation is seen in the RSI, which is hovering near the neutral 50 zone. This reflects a constant balance between buying and selling pressure. Together, these indicators suggest persistent neutrality, likely due to the strong support zone that the price is currently testing. Key Levels to Watch: 190.14: A near-term resistance level, aligned with the Ichimoku cloud barrier. A bounce toward this level could reactivate short-term bullish momentum. 192.493: A significant resistance, located at the convergence of the 100- and 200-period moving averages. A return to this area could reinforce the validity of the sideways channel still visible on the chart. 186.93: Key support level, located at the lower boundary of the broad sideways range. Bearish moves that manage to break below this level could mark the beginning of a much more significant downtrend in the upcoming sessions. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
GBPJPY - Sell Opportunity Following Resistance Test?Based on the 4-hour chart of GBP/JPY, the pair has been consolidating within a range after a significant decline from the 195.00 area. The currency is currently testing resistance around the 189.00 level, marked by the blue highlighted zone. We anticipate a temporary break above this consolidation zone as price completes a correction, which would offer an attractive selling opportunity. Traders should watch for price action confirmation after the break above the zone before entering short positions, as the broader trend appears to remain bearish. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by financialflagship
GBP/JPY: Recent Bullish Move Fails to Break the 192.00 Level Since February 11, the British pound has gained more than 2.5% against the Japanese yen. However, the recent bullish momentum has struggled to break through the key resistance level, and now a new correction in favor of the yen appears to be underway. Central Bank Policies Remain Crucial The ongoing monetary policy divergence between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is a crucial factor in this market scenario. On February 6, the Bank of England decided to keep its interest rate steady at 4.5%. However, it remains unclear whether the BoE will maintain this policy in future decisions. On the other hand, Japan's monetary stance has become increasingly aggressive. In January 2025, the Bank of Japan raised its interest rate to 0.5% , the highest level since 2008 and the BoJ has signaled a more aggressive tightening approach, aiming to strengthen the yen and make it more competitive against its peers. In the long run, Japan’s new aggressive policy stance has played a key role in the recent downward movements in GBP/JPY. Higher returns in a traditionally safe market like Japan attract greater demand for the yen, reducing the appeal of the pound. As long as Japan maintains this hawkish policy and uncertainty persists regarding the BoE’s future rate outlook, it is likely that yen demand will continue to grow, this could reinforce downward pressure on GBP/JPY. Consistent Downtrend: Since July 2024, the GBP/JPY pair has followed a sustained downtrend, which at some points has turned into a sideways movement between the 192.427 resistance level and the 187.328 support level. The current bearish bias has been strong enough to produce lower highs, keeping the price within a long-term downtrend in the short term. However, if the price moves back toward the 194.323 zone, where the 100-period and 50-period moving averages converge along with the downtrend line, it could signal a threat to the ongoing bearish trend. If buyers manage to push the price back to this level, it could be a important warning sign. ADX Indicator: The ADX line is oscillating near the neutral 20 level, indicating that the last 14 periods lack a strong directional trend. This can be explained by the recent bullish rebound, which failed to break through resistance. If the ADX remains at this level, the price may continue in a prolonged sideways trend over the next few trading sessions. RSI Indicator: A similar scenario is unfolding in the RSI, where the line is hovering around the neutral 50 level. This indicates that bullish and bearish impulses from the last 14 periods are in balance. This could reinforce a lack of clear direction for GBP/JPY in the 190.00 zone in the near term. Key Levels to Watch: 192.427 – Near-Term Resistance: This level represents the most significant neutral area in recent months and aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. If price reaches this level again, it may struggle to break through due to strong resistance at both 192.427 and 194.323, where several technical indicators converge. That said, a breakout above this entire zone could trigger a major bullish move in the long term. 187.328 – Key Support: This level marks the lows recorded since July 2024. A bearish breakout below this level could lead to new lows in the short term and reinforce the bearish bias established since December. 198.525 – Long-Term Resistance: This distant resistance level aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. If price eventually rallies to this level, it would completely invalidate the ongoing downtrend in GBP/JPY. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
1
GBPJPY - Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast: While the price is below the resistance 199.790, resumption of downtrend is expected. We make sure when the support at 182.782 breaks. If the resistance at 199.790 is broken, the short-term forecast -resumption of downtrend- will be invalid. Technical analysis: The descending flag taking shape suggests we will soon see another leg lower. A peak is formed in daily chart at 198.945 on 12/30/2024, so more losses to support(s) 191.884, 189.477, 186.231 and minimum to Major Support (182.782) is expected. Take Profits: 196.006 193.510 191.884 189.477 186.231 182.782 178.409 Total Profit: 3204 pip Closed trade(s): 1584 pip Profit Open trade(s): 1620 pip Profit Trade Setup: We opened 8 SELL trades @ 196.68 based on 'Peak' entry method at 2024-12-30, signaled by DTO. Closed Profit: TP1 @ 196.006 touched at 2024-12-31 with 67 pip Profit. TP2 @ 193.510 touched at 2025-01-09 with 317 pip Profit. TP3 @ 191.884 touched at 2025-01-13 with 480 pip Profit. TP4 @ 189.477 touched at 2025-01-17 with 720 pip Profit. 67 + 317 + 480 + 720 = 1584 pip Open Profit: Profit for one SELL trade is 196.68(open price) - 192.632(current price) = 405 pip 4 trade(s) still open, therefore total profit for open trade(s) is 405 x 4 = 1620 pip __________________________________________________________________ ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView, . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 BOOST button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! 🙏 Your Support is appreciated! Let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Have a successful week, ForecastCity Support Team
Short
by ForecastCity
12
GBPJPY ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 2022FX:GBPJPY The monthly chart shows that British Pound very probably will increase in value against the Japanese Yen. As we can see in May the price consolidated and closed above the resistance. In June we can expect the candle to form a bottom wick and continue to go up to fill the wick of April, once it exceeds April's high, it has a free traffic until 172.600. Another possible scenario is a pure consolidation of the price around that zone. It may drug up and down without decisive direction for a whole summer. However, one a big scale it is very improbabile it will break the bullish trend.
by rossty777
Do technicals point to more downside for GBPJPY?This most recent week, we saw GBP/JPY following the same bearish direction as the previous three weeks, with its strongest impulse happening during Wednesday's New York session. When looking at the weekly time frame, this pair has been in an uptrend. However, it is fast approaching a breakout of this upwards trendline, which has held prices up for the past couple of years. Technically we can look at the hourly chart and see the adherence the price showed to the Fibonacci and Exponential Moving Average. Looking at the most recent hourly range, we see GBPJPY retrace above the week's opening price during Monday's New York session to the 61.8 level. In that area is the EMA indicating another confluence for a move down. Price didn’t return to that area, with only two other weak retracements shown before the sell-off. Fundamentally speaking, there were no high impact news events for either currency last week. However, the UK has had its hands full with several factors. Brexit issues with Ireland continue, and numbers show the economy shrank at the end of March. Factor in that the Japanese Yen is typically seen as a safe haven, and the bearishness in this pair isn't too surprising. The coming week for GBPJPY Looking ahead at this upcoming week, it is full of news events for the GBP, with monetary policy report hearings happening Monday. This is followed by unemployment, CPI numbers, and retail sales later in the week. Of course, the most critical report is CPI, which I released on Wednesday. UK's CPI for April is expected to rise two percentage points to 9%, from 7% in March. The significant economic report from Japan is released at the end of the week. Japan's April CPI is released on Friday, and the market consensus is that it will rise to 1.5% from 1.2% in the previous reading.
by BlackBull_Markets