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XAGUSD - Silver Vs FOMC?!Silver is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the decline continues due to the FOMC today, we can see demand zone and buy within that range with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend continues, silver can be sold within the specified supply zone. World Bank analysts believe that silver is a precious metal worth monitoring in 2025. The World Bank has recently updated its commodity market forecasts. While gold is expected to maintain its strong performance within the broader market, analysts have forecasted weaker demand extending from next year through 2026. The analysts noted, “Demand for gold from central banks and the jewelry sector, which together constitute about two-thirds of global demand, is likely to decrease due to unprecedented high prices.” Nevertheless, the World Bank sees greater potential in silver, given expectations that rising demand and limited supply will help support prices. World Bank analysts further stated, “Silver demand is anticipated to increase steadily in the forecast horizon, driven by its dual financial and industrial uses.” With supply growth lagging behind the positive factors supporting demand, silver prices are projected to increase by 7% in 2025 and by 3% in 2026, following an expected 20% increase in 2024. Many analysts expect silver to outperform gold by 2025, as it is currently priced well below its intrinsic value. Nomura believes that a second Trump administration would focus heavily on tariff and tax policies, potentially leading to inflationary pressures and slower economic growth. Nomura forecasts that the Federal Reserve will respond prudently to these changes. The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts this year, followed by a single cut in 2025, and then take a prolonged pause on further cuts.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
Euro extends losses as eurozone CPI slows to 1.8%The euro continues to lose ground and is trading at 1.1080 in the North American session, down 0.49% on the day. The euro is down for a third consecutive day and has declined 0.9% during that time. Eurozone inflation eased to 1.8% y/y in September, down from 2.2% in August and below the market estimate of 1.9%. This was the lowest rate since April 2021 and below the European Central Bank’s inflation target of 2%. The drop in inflation was largely driven by the sharp decrease in energy prices. Monthly, inflation declined by 0.1%, down from the 0.1% gain in August. Services inflation, which has been a headache for the ECB, dropped from 4.1% to 4.0%. The core rate, which is a better indicator of long-term inflation trends, fell to 2.7%, down from 2.8% in August and below the market estimate of 2.8%. Inflation declined across the bloc, with Germany, France, Italy and Spain all recording inflation rates below 2%. The ECB has approached the new rate-cutting cycle with caution, as high services inflation and wage growth are reminders that the battle against inflation isn’t over. The markets expect the ECB to remain on the sidelines at the October meeting and re-evaluate a possible rate cut in December. The Federal Reserve is expected to be aggressive in its rate-cutting cycle, which started last month with a large cut of 50 basis points. On Monday, Fed Chair Powell poured cold water on expectations for another jumbo rate cut, saying that the economy was in “solid shape” and that the Fed was not in any rush to cut rates quickly. Powell’s remarks have lowered market odds of a 50-bps cut to 40%, compared to 58% one week ago, according to CME’s FedWatch. EUR/USD pushed below support at 1.1096 and tested support at 1.1058 earlier. The next support level is 1.1001 1.1153 and 1.1191 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Swiss franc edges lower after Swiss central bank cuts ratesThe Swiss franc is showing limited movement on Thursday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.8483, down 0.24% on the day. In the US, it’s a busy day with US GDP, unemployment claims and durable goods orders. As well, Federal Reserve Chair Powell and several FOMC members will deliver remarks. The Swiss National Bank lowered its cash rate by 25 basis points to 1%, its third straight reduction. The cash rate is now at its lowest level since early 2023. The move was not a surprise and the Swiss franc has showed a limited reaction to the rate announcement. The SNB statement noted that inflation has “decreased significantly”, in part due to the appreciation of the Swiss franc and that inflation, which has fallen to 1.1%, was lower than expected. The statement added that further rate cuts “may become necessary” to ensure price stability. The stronger Swiss franc has raised the possibility of a currency intervention by the SNB and investors were on the look-out for any hints from the SNB at today’s meeting. The statement didn’t point to any intervention plans, noting that the central bank “remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary.” The Swiss franc’s safe haven status has made it an attractive asset at a time of market volatility but this is hurting the critical export sector. The SNB could step in if the Swiss franc continues to appreciate. The SNB has become a frontrunner among central banks in cutting interest rates, a result of its success in taming inflation. Other major banks have also lowered rates but are still concerned about the upside risk of inflation and have not chopped rates as aggressively as the SNB. USD/CHF is testing support at 0.8475. Below, there is support at 0.8444 0.8536 and 0.8567 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Iconic Failed Bullish move on SPX?If the S&P500 gets rejected at this level, it has the power to be an iconic selloff. Now before we get to “bear’d up ” understand the SPX is still holding above the key short term daily moving averages and holding higher lows. The long term trend is still up. Now to go back to being bearish. This FOMC interest cut was a big 0.50 BP which is not what most were expecting. The rate cut that everyone was so bulled up on ended up backfiring in the markets face. The market sold off and reversed lower. Historically this is a phenomenon we can observe throughout previous rate cutting cycles. Along with a buy the rumour sell type of day, the candle formation om the SPX are appearing to be higher volume reversal candles. Today session almost completed bearishly engulfed yesterday’s session. These 2 candles have also proceeded to be trading at New All Time Highs before failing to hold and reversing Lower.
SP:SPX
by Trading-Capital
Yen shrugs as inflation BoJ core CPI dipsThe Japanese yen has edged lower on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.76, up 0.17% on the day at the time of writing. Is Japanese inflation falling? On Tuesday, two inflation indicators pointed to a deceleration in inflation in July. BoJ Core CPI, which is closely monitored by the Bank of Japan, dropped to 1.8%, down from 2.1% in June and its lowest level in three months. The Services Producer Price Index dropped to 2.8%, down from a revised 3.1% in June. Japan’s inflation has been moving higher, which has supported the case for another rate hike from the Bank of Japan. The central bank has projected that inflation will hover around its 2% target until 2027. Today’s inflation releases could be temporary blips but if the next inflation reports also indicate that inflation is heading lower, it could complicate the BoJ’s plans to gradually normalize its ultra-loose policy. The International Monetary Fund said on Friday that it supports the BoJ’s move to normalization and that the speed of further rate hikes will be ‘very data-dependent”, with a focus on inflation, wage growth and inflation expectations. We’ll get a look at Tokyo Core CPI on Friday, which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.2%. The Jackson Hole Symposium was “mission accomplished” for the markets as Federal Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed was ready to cut rates. Powell didn’t specify the September meeting as the kickoff for rate cuts, but the markets are confident that the Fed will cut by a quarter-point at the Sept. 18 meeting. The US releases a key employment report on Sept. 6 and Goldman Sachs has said that if the jobs report is soft again then the Fed could respond with a 50-basis point cut, while a strong jobs release would support a 25-bps move. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 144.98. Above, there is resistance at 145.42 There is support at 144.21 and 143.77
by OANDA
EUR/USD dips as German business climate fallsThe euro is in negative territory on Monday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1156 at the time of writing, down 0.32% on the day. The euro posted strong gains on Friday, rising 0.73% and breaking above 1.12 for the first time since July 17. The markets got what they were looking for from Federal Reserve Chair Powell on Friday – an endorsement for a rate cut. Powell didn’t specify when the Fed would cut but said that the “time has come for policy to adjust”. Investors are ready for the Fed’s first rate cut in over four years at the Sept. 18 meeting. What is still up in the air is the size of the cut. Just one month ago, the odds of a 25-basis point cut stood at 88% and 12% for a cut of 50 bps, according to the CME’s FedWatch. Since then, the US economy has posted some weaker-than-expected data and the probability of a 25-bps reduction has fallen to 63.5% for a 25-bps cut vs. 36.5% for a 50 bps move. One key factor in the Fed’s decision will be the August jobs report on Sept. 6. A very weak report for July panicked investors that the US economy was hurtling towards a recession and financial markets were routed before bouncing back. Another weak jobs report could rattle investors and push the Fed to respond with a 50-bps cut. The expected September cut will mark the start of a new rate cycle for the Fed, which has maintained rates at 5.25%-5.50% for over a year. The Fed is expected to lower rates at least one more time this year and continue trimming into 2025. Germany’s Ifo Institute business climate sentiment index declined in August for a fourth consecutive time as the German economy continues to struggle. The index eased to 86.6, down from 87.0 but above the market estimate of 86.0. The survey’s manufacturing component dropped sharply and the services component also fell. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.1165. Below, there is support at 1.1130 1.1229 and 1.1264 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Canadian dollar jumps on retail sales reboundThe Canadian dollar is showing some strength on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3532 at the time of writing, down 0.60% on the day. The Canadian dollar is at its highest level since early April and is poised to post its third winning week in a row. Canada’s retail sales report was a mix. In June, retail sales fell 0.3% m/m, confirming the initial estimate and following a May reading of -0.8%. However, the initial estimate for July jumped 0.6%, which would indicate a much-needed rebound in consumer spending. Retail sales were down 0.5% in the second quarter and 0.4% in Q1, which would mark the weakest two quarters since 2009, outside the covid pandemic. The spike in July is likely due to the Bank of Canada’s quarter-point rate cuts in June and July, bringing down the benchmark rate to 4.5%. The BoC is expected to continue to trim rates as inflation has eased and the labor market shows signs of decline. The annual Jackson Hole meeting has begun and the highlight of the summit will be today’s speech from the host, Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The markets are all ears, although it would not be a surprise if Powell’s speech is little more than a cautious acknowledgment that inflation is moving in the right direction and that the Fed is poised to cut at the Sept. 18 meeting. The markets have fully priced in a rate cut at next month’s meeting, with the odds at 71% for a 25-basis point cut and 29% for a 50-bps cut, according to CME’s FedWatch. There’s a strong chance that the Fed will deliver additional cuts before the end of the year, but recent employment data has been very weak and that could delay further rate cuts. The next employment report on Sept. 6 will be a key factor in determining the Fed’s rate path. USD/CAD has pushed below support at 1.3578 and is testing support at 1.3538. Below, there is support at 1.3478 There is resistance at 1.3628 and 1.3653
by OANDA
EURUSD / US Dollar Slips as Markets Brace for Powell’s SpeechUS Dollar Declines Early Friday as Markets Await Powell’s Speech Next Outlook: The market is currently navigating a crucial zone between 1.10820 and 1.11400. A break above or below this range will likely determine the next directional move. If the price stabilizes above 1.11410, it could signal a potential rally towards 1.12560. Conversely, if the price remains below 1.10820, we may see a decline towards 1.09150. Jerome Powell's upcoming speech is highly anticipated, as any mention of a rate cut could significantly impact market direction. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 1.1100 - Resistance Levels: 1.11950, 1.12560, 1.1350 - Support Levels: 1.1080, 1.09960, 1.09150 The expected trading range for today is between 1.0900 and 1.12560.
Short
by SroshMayi
Russell may rock n’ roll on rate cut and soft landing hopesRussell 2000 futures sit on uptrend support, making Friday’s close important following Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. To get excited about US small caps, you need a soft economic landing and lower borrowing costs given many of its constituents are unprofitable and reliant on capital markets. Given Powell will discuss rate cuts and flag confidence in the Fed’s ability to stick a soft landing, it comes across as recipe for upside. With the uptrend nearby, traders could initiate longs around these levels or even a touch lower with a stop loss below the level for protection. Should the price break 2186.4, there’s little in the way of visible resistance until the record highs. If the trade works in your favour, consider raising you stop to entry level or higher, providing a free hit on upside. Good luck! DS
CME_MINI:RTY1!Long
by FOREXcom
NZ dollar slips ahead of retail sales, Powell’s speechThe New Zealand dollar is drifting on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD has fallen to 0.6132 at the time of writing, down 0.41% on the day. The New Zealand dollar continues to have its way with its US counterpart and has soared 4% since July 29. The markets are braced for a downturn in retail sales for the second quarter, with a market estimate of -1%, following a 0.5% gain in the first quarter. The New Zealand economy has been struggling and weak retail sales in June drove the Services PSI lower to 40.2 in June, compared to 42.6 in May. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. High interest rates have weighed heavily on economic activity and consumers have cut back sharply on discretionary spending. In the US, the FOMC minutes of the July meeting reaffirmed that the Fed is headed towards a milestone rate cut at the Sept. 18 meeting. Most of the Fed officials at the meeting favored reducing rates next month, provided that that data “continued to come in about as expected”. The markets have fully priced in a September cut, which hasn’t happened since the onset of the Covid pandemic. The annual Jackson Hole symposium is often little more than a photo-op but this year promises to be different. Next month, the Federal Reserve is poised to deliver its first rate cut since March 2020, likely in the form of a quarter-point cut. There is an outside chance of a large half-point cut, which would become more likely if the next jobs report on Sept. 6 points to further cooling job growth. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6147. Below, there is support at 0.6100 The next resistance line is 0.6209
by OANDA
GBP/USD hits 1-month high, UK PMIs nextThe British pound is showing limited movement on Wednesday, after a four-day rally in which it surged 1.7% against the retreating US dollar. GBP/USD is trading at 1.3047 in the North American session at the time of writing, up 0.1% on the day. The annual meeting at Jackson Hole has added significance this year as the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a milestone rate cut in September. Fed Chair Powell will address the gathering on Friday and investors will be looking for clues about the anticipated September move. The Fed last cut rates in March 2020, early in the Covid pandemic. The Fed has maintained its benchmark rate at 5.25% -5.5% for over a year and all signals point to an initial rate cut at the September 18 meeting. The most likely scenario is a quarter-point cut but earlier this month the financial markets were routed and expectations for a large half-point cut soared. Now that the markets have recovered, a quarter-point cut is once again the most likely scenario. With inflation under control, the Fed is keeping a close eye on the US labor market, which may be cooling too fast for the Fed. The July employment report showed a sharp drop in nonfarm payrolls and a rise in unemployment and the financial markets went into panic mode. Powell is sure to touch upon employment and inflation in his speech on Friday and his take on the economic outlook could move the US dollar. The UK will release the July PMI report on Thursday. The manufacturing and services sectors are both showing growth, as the UK economic picture has improved. The services PMI is expected to inch upwards to 52.9, up from 52.8 in June. Manufacturing has been accelerated for three straight months but the PMI is projected to remain at 52.1. We’ll hear from Bank of England Governor Bailey on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium. GBP/USD tested support at 1.3020 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.2989 1.3067 and 1.3098 are the next resistance lines.
NYSE:BOE
by OANDA
Additional rebound in US30 remains possible US30 is showing a continuous uptrend as expectations for the US economy arise, along with the anticipation that Chairman Powell may provide clues about rate cuts at the Jackson Hole meeting. Goldman Sachs lowered its 12-month recession probability for the US economy from 25% to 20% following the release of July retail sales and jobless claims data. The current market consensus is that the August employment report will determine future US30 price movements. Morgan Stanley stressed that the report's outcome will be the real test for the market, warning that a report showing weak employment would reignite growth concerns. US30 quickly breached EMAs and continued its uptrend, rising above the trendline. The index needs an additional price trigger to retest its highs, but the current positive trend is expected to continue for the time being. If US30 sustains support above the trendline, the index may gain upward momentum toward the 41500 high. Conversely, if US30 is pushed below the trendline and fails to hold above EMAs, the price may break the 39300 support and fall further to the 38000 level.
DJ:DJI
by inkicho_exness
BlackRock: Poised for a Bullish Breakout? **Current Price Range**: $846 to $822 (Weekly Frame) **Potential for Bullish Reversal**: BlackRock, trending between $846 and $822, shows signs of a potential bullish reversal. A strong resistance at $895.20 is key. Breaking and closing above this level on the weekly timeframe could indicate a reversal and the continuation of a bullish trend. **Double Top Formation and Historical Context**: The double top pattern from November 15, 2021 , initially suggested bearish momentum due to overvaluation and economic concerns. However, BlackRock's strategic growth initiatives, including climate transition ETFs, acquisitions, and private market expansions, offer strong bullish prospects. **Probability Indicator**: Our probability indicator, currently above the middle threshold, hints at a shift towards bullish momentum. **Key Levels to Watch**: - **Resistance Level** : $895.20 - A break above this level may signal a bullish continuation. - **Support Level** : $726.37 - A hold above this zone could further support the bullish outlook. **Market Factors**: **Strategic Growth** : BlackRock's innovative initiatives and acquisitions position it well for future growth. **Resilience Amid Challenges**: Despite facing outflows and ESG-related backlash, BlackRock remains robust. **Leadership and Vision**: CEO Larry Fink's strategic direction emphasizes long-term growth and adaptation to market changes. **Expected All-Time High**: BlackRock is expected to reach its all-time high by end-March 2025, supported by its strategic initiatives and resilience in the market. **Conclusion**: BlackRock is on the verge of a potential bullish breakout. Monitoring the $ 895.20 resistance level is crucial for confirmation. The company's strategic initiatives and resilience indicate a strong potential for a bullish trend continuation, possibly mirroring the market recovery patterns seen after the 2008 financial crisis.
NYSE:BLKLong
by wikitrades
1
GBP/USD hits 4-month high on strong GDPThe British pound has extended its gains on Thursday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2876 in the European session, up 0.22% on the day. The sun is shining in London today and there’s plenty to smile about besides the pleasant weather. England has punched their ticket to the final of the Euro football tournament and UK GDP was stronger than expected. The British pound headed higher and has hit its highest level since March 8. The UK economy is showing signs of a rebound after slipping into a recession in the second half of 2023. Annualized GDP jumped 1.4% in May, up from a revised 0.6% in April and beating the 1.2% market estimate. Monthly, GDP improved to 0.4% after zero growth in April and above the market estimate of 0.2%. The weather has played a significant role in the improved data. April was unusually rainy, which dampened consumer spending. May, however, was the warmest on record which revitalized retail sales. Inflation has declined dramatically, from 11.1% in October 2022 down to 2% in May, matching the Bank of England’s inflation target. This has raised expectations that the BoE will deliver a rate cut but the central bank remains cautious. The BoE meets next on August 1 and markets expectations are a 50/50 coin toss as to whether the Bank will hold or take the plunge and lower rates. In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Powell wrapped up two days of testimony before US lawmakers. Powell signaled that the Fed was moving closer to a rate cut decision but it was too early to declare victory over inflation and said “more good data” was needed before the Fed would feel confident lowering rates. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2872. Above, there is resistance at 1.2897 1.2825 and 1.2800 are the next support levels
by OANDA
GOLD (XAUUSD) Intraday Short Trade IdeaGold is in the local descending channel and we are trying to find the sell position entries. We observe breaker block on the graph which cannot be broken previous days, only false breakouts happened. Thus, this zone occasionally is the intense rejection zone for us. Also, Powel in yesterday's meeting did not talk negative about the inflation rate, which keeps the strength of USD index and respectively affect the GOLD negatively TP and SL zones are shown on graph. Trade on your own risk and responsibly.
VELOCITY:GOLDShort
by TetanForex
4
Euro's Next Moves: Biden, Powell, and Inflation Data The euro held steady at $1.0825 on Monday, recovering from a dip to $1.0815 as traders absorbed the surprising French election results, which saw a leftist alliance lead both the centrists and the right in the number of sets gained. Key drivers for the EURUSD's next moves include Biden's potential resignation, upcoming bank earnings, Powell's testimony in Washington, and US CPI and PPI data, alongside Hurricane Beryl's developments. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. Both monthly and daily RSIs for EUR/USD are on the rise but remain below overbought levels, suggesting continued upward momentum. Should US inflation data show further declines, EUR/USD could aim for the 1.09395 mark. Conversely, higher-than-expected inflation figures might reverse this bullish trend, potentially pushing the pair back to the well-established lows of 1.0600.
by BlackBull_Markets
XAU/USD : Gold Faces Crucial Support Ahead of Powell's SpeechBy analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we see that the price is still grappling with the support zone between $2320 and $2323. Today, we are expecting a speech from Mr. Powell in a few hours, which could lead to significant market fluctuations. Markets are looking for signs of whether the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates. Any indication of a rate hike could strengthen the dollar and cause gold and stock prices to drop. Conversely, if Powell indicates that rate hikes will stop, the dollar might weaken. Markets will closely listen to Powell's speech for any hints of changes in monetary policies or economic outlook. His speech could have significant impacts on the markets. We must pay close attention to the key points of his remarks and, considering current market expectations, be prepared for potential volatility. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ArmanShabanTrading
6
GOLD / XAUUSD UPDATE !!!!www.tradingview.com The gold market is currently in a holding pattern, with traders reluctant to make premature decisions due to upcoming significant news. A consolidation below the level of 2315 is observed. A false break of support has led the price to retest the 2310-2315 range, after which traders are pausing before the news release. All attention is focused on the forthcoming major events, namely the CPI and the Fed meeting. The key US CPI data will influence the Fed's stance on interest rates, which will, in turn, significantly affect the value of the US dollar and gold prices in the short term. The market anticipates neutral data (no change), which would likely maintain the same fundamental backdrop. However, the actual data is highly anticipated, especially after last Friday's unexpectedly high NFP. Any initial reaction to the US CPI data might be short-lived as gold traders will soon turn their attention to the FOMC & Fed meeting. Resistance levels are identified at 2315, 2325, and 2354, while support levels are found at 2305, 2291, and 2267. From both a technical and fundamental perspective, gold appears weak at the moment. Amidst high volatility, the price may attempt to breach 2325 and test the liquidity zone of 2335-2345, then transition to a decline phase if the fundamental backdrop is conducive. The risk of further decline remains substantial, but the upcoming news could either exacerbate this decline or disrupt the market structure.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by Goldxking
Fed decision time: Rate cuts before Nov election? The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain the federal funds target range at 5.25%-5.5% when officials conclude their two-day meeting on Wednesday. Investors will be scrutinizing the statement to learn when the central bank might eventually reduce its rate and the potential frequency of such cuts this year. Market expectations suggest a possible rate cut in mid-September, 2 months ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University, noted that the recent May jobs report likely ruled out a rate cut in July, while Adam Posen, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, goes even further, suggesting that the robust U.S. economy diminishes the likelihood of a pre-election rate cut. The Fed has rescheduled its November meeting to occur post-election, a move reminiscent of 2020. In a letter addressed to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, three Democratic senators, including Elizabeth Warren, have called for rate cuts as soon as possible. "The Fed’s monetary policy is... driving up housing and auto insurance costs—two of the key drivers of inflation...”. Former Fed Vice-Chair Donald Kohn asserted that Chair Powell has consistently maintained that decisions are driven by economic conditions rather than political considerations, expressing confidence that this principle will be upheld in the coming months.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets