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XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report FOMC: This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. What a great time we’re having on Gold at the moment with the moves playing out nearly to perfection into all our levels. We’ve done well on this and we’re not interested in giving anything back so we will wait for the levels shown to give us strong support or resistance before we attempt to take a trade, even then it will be with a small lot and a tight stop in place. Please don’t mess around with Gold when its like this, if you’re in the wrong way Gold can really cause you sleepless nights! So, moving forward we’re going to trade this with two scenarios in mind, looking at only the highs and the lows of the present range. Scenario 1: We have a target below which is sitting around 1720, this is also the weekly support level so potentially this can be a short term stop on the selling pressure we’re witnessing. If price spikes into that level during FOMC or in the coming sessions we feel an opportunity to long the market exists. We’re not looking for huge captures, simply the 1775 and 1785 levels initially. After this, take partials, stop to entry and let it run. Breaking the level to the downside and you can see what's next!! Scenario 2: They push the price up, the first level we’re looking for is 1775 and above that 1785-90. If we see resistance there we feel an opportunity to short the market back down in to the 1750 and below that 1735 and 1720 levels could be on the cards. Breaking above the 1795 level and holding above it then its likely we will see this go a little higher before then attempting to come back down It’s a dangerous market to trade and its not for the faint hearted. Please be sensible and don’t try to get rich quick, it won’t happen! Have a risk model in place and make sure your lots sizes are in accordance with your account size. Hope this helps in preparation for FOMC, we will update you as we go along as we usually do. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
15
Will the RBA hike boost the Aussie?We are seeing plenty of volatility from the Australian dollar. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6883 in European trade, up 0.98% on the day. The Australian dollar has recovered most of its losses from Friday, when the pair slipped 1.28%. All eyes are on the RBA, which holds its monthly policy meeting on Tuesday. The meeting is live, as it's not clear if the Bank will raise rates by 25bp or 50bp. The most likely scenario is a 50-bp move, with the cash rate at a low 0.85%. A supersize 75bp move is a possibility but unlikely, and would likely give the Aussie a short-lived jump - the markets remain jittery in the current environment which will make it difficult for AUD/USD to claw back to the symbolic 70 level. Inflation remains the RBA's paramount concern. The inflation rate of 5.1% is among the lowest in the OECD and well below the UK and US, which are running close to double digits. Still, there is no sign of Australia's inflation peaking, and that has the RBA worried about inflation expectations becoming unanchored. There are no indications of a recession, but GDP in Q1 slowed significantly to 0.8%, compared to a robust 3.6% in the fourth quarter. If the RBA continues to deliver 50bp rate hikes, economic activity will slow and negative growth would become a very real possibility. US markets are closed for a holiday, but things will heat up during the week, with the FOMC releasing the minutes of its June meeting. The Fed appears intent on continuing to raise rates aggressively, with Fed Chair Powell saying last week that curbing inflation was his primary task right now. Last week Powell said it was important to prevent inflation expectations from becoming anchored, adding that restoring price stability was paramount, even if that mean negative growth. On Friday, the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker indicated that the US is likely already in a recession, with the economy contracting by 2.1% in Q2, which together with the Q1 decline of 1.6% would mean the economy is in recession. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6849. Above, there is resistance at 0.6933 There is support at 0.6732 and 0.6648
by OANDA
Sterling rises despite weak UK dataThe pound has edged higher today, shrugging off soft UK releases. Retail sales for May fell 0.5%, and declined 4.7% YoY, below the estimate of -4.5% (-5.7% prior). It was a similar story for core retail sales, which came in at -5.7% YoY, worse than the forecast of -5.1% (-6.1% prior). The sharp declines in consumer spending should not come as a surprise, given the inflation squeeze which continues to drag down the UK economy. Consumer confidence numbers remain in deep-freeze, as GfK consumer confidence for May notched lower to -41 in June, down from -40 in May. The continuing rise in the cost of living has become a crisis for UK households, and the predictable result has been weaker consumer confidence and spending. Inflation in the UK shows no signs of peaking, as headline CPI rose to 9.1% in May, up a notch from 9.0% in April. Inflation expectations are rising, and this week's major rail strike could be an initial response from organized labour, which will not be satisfied with 3% wage hikes when inflation is closing in on double digits. The BoE hasn't had succeeded in curbing inflation and expects inflation to top 11% later this year before finally easing. Unlike the Federal Reserve, the BoE has been reluctant to aggressively raise rates, with the BoE's most recent hike of 0.25% paling in comparison to the Fed's salvo of 0.75%. Fed Chair Powell's appearance on Capitol Hill this week was keenly watched by nervous markets. Powell didn't hold back any punches, acknowledging that a recession was "certainly a possibility", adding that a soft landing would be "very challenging". Powell mentioned the usual suspects beyond the Fed's control, namely, high commodity prices, supply chain issues and the Ukraine war. The Fed has not ruled out further 0.75% hikes, which will help curb inflation but could tip the economy into a recession. 1.2187 is providing support, followed by 1.1969  GBP/USD continues to test resistance at 1.2283. Above, there is resistance at 1.2441
by OANDA
1
NZ dollar slides as risk sentiment fallsThe New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6261, down 1.14% on the day. New Zealand data has been mixed this week. BusinessNZ Services Index rose to 55.2 in May, up from 52.2 in April. This points to stronger expansion in the services area. However, Westpac Consumer Confidence plunged to 78.7 in May, its lowest level ever recorded. This was down from 92.1 in April. Consumers are very unhappy about the cost of living crisis and the survey found that consumers are scaling back on leisure activities, such as dining at restaurants. The double blow of higher mortgage rates and increases in living expenses has taken a large chunk of disposable income. If this results in a decrease in consumer spending, it could lead to a downturn in economic growth. Consumer angst could have a major effect on the Reserve Bank's policy. If consumer demand sinks, the central bank may have to ease off on the size of future rate hikes. The RBNZ has been tightening aggressively and the cash rate, which is currently at 2%, is expected to rise to 3% by the end of August and possibly to 4% in 12 months' time.  The RBNZ is in a fierce battle with inflation and if demand falls, inflation could peak and allow the central bank to ease up on its tightening cycle. The Bank is also monitoring inflation expectations, with policy makers keen to ensure that expectations don't become unanchored. With no US releases today, Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual appearance on Capitol Hill will take over center stage. Powell will brief lawmakers today and tomorrow, and anxious investors will be on the lookout for clues on where monetary policy is headed. Will Powell signal that he plans to ease on tightening? Powell's testimony could have a strong impact on the financial markets and should be treated as a market-mover for the US dollar. NZD/USD tested support at 0.6302 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6209 There is resistance at 0.6408
by OANDA
British pound calm ahead of inflationThe pound is having a quiet week, after some sharp swings last week. Monday was a holiday in the US, and it was a quiet session for the US dollar. The currency markets are calm today as well, with the exception of the sinking Japanese yen. Last week was the turn of the central banks to perform on stage, with the Fed, BoE and SNB all raising rates. All three central banks are keeping a close eye on rising inflation and tightening policy in order to wrestle down inflation. The BoE has been accused of raising a white flag with regard to inflation, and last week's tepid rate hike of 0.25% won't silence the critics. The UK releases the May inflation report on Wednesday, with headline CPI expected to nudge higher to 9.1%, up from 9.0% in April. The BoE estimates that inflation will peak above 11%, sometime later this year. With the BoE grimly predicting that inflation will hit double-digits, the cost of living crisis, which is already bad, is poised to get even worse. This has led to inflation expectations continuing to accelerate, and the UK rail strike, the biggest in 30 years, is a reflection of workers taking extreme action in the face of rising inflation. Consumer confidence is down, and a drop and consumer spending would be disastrous for an economy that may be headed for a recession. In the US, Fed Chair Powell will testify on Capitol Hill on Wednesday and Thursday, and the ratings should be high, following the Fed's largest rate hike since 1994. Fed members Barkin and Mester will speak later today, and the markets will be listening, looking for insights regarding upcoming rate hikes. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2292. Above, we have resistance at 1.2441 There is support at 1.2187 and 1.1969
by OANDA
XAUUSD 2nd TP Reached : +170 Pips ✅✅ TP1 Reached ✅ ~ $ 1831 ✅ TP2 Reached ✅ ~ $ 1842 Last analysis : As you can see, after collecting liquidity below $ 1807, the price faced demand and increased by $ 20, now trading in the range of $ 1827, the first scenario is to rise to the levels indicated on the chart, respectively: $ 1831, 1842, $ 1851, $ 1857 and $ 1863 ...! The second scenario is rejecting from $ 1824 to $ 1831 zone and moving to the $ 1804 and $ 1787 targets. Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 06.16.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
2
FedEx and the Falling Wedge 📈FedEx NYSE:FDX 📦 gave the falling wedge look back in January 2022—after it failed to break-through trendline resistance. Since then, it's been an easy stock to watch bounce around and consolidate into a more defined falling wedge, threatening to break trendline support throughout the month of April. After signaling an inverse head and shoulders coming into May, it was a reliable trade up to 225 resistance before failing victim to the three black crows —right back to trendline support on June 13. 📉 The catalyst was an announcement of a 53% raise of the quarterly dividend that sent a big gap up over 218 resistance/support through 225 to test the very top of the falling wedge trendline. Closing near the highs around 231 resistance will provide room for a breakout, however, it would be better to see a few days of consolidation above 225 before confirming the breakout—on volume—over 231. Depending on what comes out from the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, June 15 will either send this into full breakout mode or send this back toward 218 support. Keep this one on the top of your radar.
NYSE:FDXLong
by zwburger
Most Recent Powell Appearances & PA Hello Traders, -----------> (see picture below for better view) <---------- I just wanted to take a look with you on how Powell Appearances or Fed Minutes & Press conferences have affected price action. Above is a quick look at that and a very near-term prediction of SPY. Of course, Powell is a very well spoken man, and he chooses his words very carefully. He said exactly what was expected and exactly what the markets wanted to hear, hence the rally. However, when do we move past the idea that the rallies will be followed by drops in the days following? Are we there? Are we almost there? No way to really know. Even with a strong ear to the pulse of the markets and every analysis you can think of, it can be difficult to time the markets. Luckily there are tools like you see on my chart that can help to stay consistent even when you aren't entirely sure when we've hit bottom or when the rally rug will pull. Not all technical tools are the same and there isn't a holy grail per se; but some tools of the trade are much sharper than others. For example, some tools may help you catch tops and bottoms really well when combined with a strategy. How have you been doing-- are you Consistent-- are you Confident in your trades-- do you stick to your Strategy and Stop-loss? Never stop sharpening your sword. As retail traders, we must be constantly evolving and sharpening our toolbox to compete against the institutions and whales out there. Happy trading. Cheers, Mike L. (UPRIGHT Trading) The Powell Catalyst
AMEX:SPY
by UPRIGHTTrading
Officer Omicron and Insurgent Inflation Team Up To Fight the FedScene 1 Darth Powell summons the legends of the past to formulate the plan to fight the Omicron and Inflation insurgence. Brigadier Bernanke, General Greenspan and Veteran Volcker report for duty. “We are at an event horizon, what should we do?” declares Powell. “Pretend it isn’t happening”, says Greenspan “Bailout everything, print more money,” says Bernanke “I killed inflation forever, this cannot be happening,” says Volcker Powell rises from his throne and addresses the senate. "There is nothing to see here. We will continue as normal, and start to cool off our insurgent inflation with the ice bath of interest rates, and the tepid taste of tapering." In the background the sound of screaming. Cut Scene 1. Scene 2. The morning after a sweet night of passion, Omicron and Inflation wake up with a hangover and get to work on terrorizing the economy. Officer Omicron has already infected 30% of the planet and inflation is rampant. Cut Scene 2. Well, that was exciting, but if the global economy was a star wars movie, it would be something like this. A big gap down today, and the short-term outlook is definitely to the downside, with limited room for stimulus, and unlimited room for inflation, virus infections, and lockdowns. Short-term RSI – Nasty KST – Nasty AD Ratio - ouch Choose Your Ending Scene 3. After two hard years the people of Naboo (earth) are battered yet determined to summon the force to fight whatever stands in their way. It will be tough, but we will beat nature and fight to live another day. 15% to 20% drop in equities, a collapse in crypto, followed by a green revolution where we live in ESG harmony. Scene 4. Mother natures death star finally scourges us to hell causing the next great depression, which takes an entire generation to recover from. (Like the 2000 dotcom bust 8-year recovery) Scene 5. Darth Powell farts, and the world goes on as normal 😊 Cast your vote now. Scene 3, 4, or 5. If you like, then hit like. Barry
SP:SPXShort
by liberatedstocktrader
4
EURUSD before FED Today is FED's Interest Rate decision. We're expecting to see a rise from 0.5% to 1%. A rise will definitely happen but what's more important is by how much and when would be the next one as well. Technically, we're in a strong downtrend which is more likely to continue therefore we should see lower values. The Interest rate decisions normally cause big moves and rejection wicks in price. A conservative approach would be to look for entries after the news or also tomorrow. The aggressive way to trade it would be to look to sell around 1,0590 and make an entry right after the news if there's a nice long wick. The target is 1,0400!
by ForexTrendline
17
EURUSD 21.4 - Powerful long position with a chance of clouds ;)Note that we have a few market moving events today : - Jobless claims - ECB & FED chairs speaking (Powell, Lagarde) It's important to emphasize, such events have a tendency to be volatility triggers, it's much less important what is said and done - Majority of impact is volume and technicals. Volume because everyone is trading and there's big swings and technicals because the swings, unless there's something truly drastic are moving the price action within the 4h up to weekly technical trend. So with the introduction out of the way let's BE PRACTICAL! 1) A tunnel consolidation is broken up above what was 1.0850 resistance, a retest of this breakout is technically possible at around 1.0830. 2) A break above 1.0942 would allow for very possible continuation to 1.1020 resistance. 3) A break above 1.1021 with a daily close would be a break above the trend-line stretching from 1.150, highest point of the year. Which could technically mean 1.1150 , 1.1250 and higher. A solid trading plan would be to consider that the USD is very far up. Using simple logic, of 'buy low sell high' , today's events may be very bad for USD. The DXY (dollar index) is actually showing a solid bearish 'falling wedge' pattern. So using careful risk management and patience during the day, buying the retest of 1.0830 and even 1.0720 which would be possible if breaks (very low chance), could be great long positions. If you want to be bolder with a bigger chance of catching a big swing up with a probable crash of USD , you can consider a 200 pip downside compared to a 600 pip upside as short-mid term. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you for going through my idea! If you found my idea useful, please like and follow :D It would truly mean a lot to me. Also if you have any questions , don't hesitate to ask me and I will of course respond to everyone. I encourage you to do your own research and be very careful when investing! Once again, thank you <3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by Exactus
Macron wins, but euro slidesThe euro has started the week with sharp losses as it struggles to stay above the 1.07 line. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0717, down 0.73% on the day. On Sunday, President Emmanuel Macron won a decisive victory over Marie Le Pen of the extreme right, by a score of 58% to 42%. The markets reacted with relief rather than elation, given that Le Pen, an avowed euro-sceptic, made a very strong showing. A Macron victory was priced in last week, and the brief euro rally after the election results didn’t last. It has been a miserable month of April for the euro, which shed over 300 points. The currency has been under pressure from the Ukraine war next door, in particular the sanctions against Russia which are having an effect on growth in Western European countries. There are growing calls in Europe to ban energy imports from Russia, which would have a massive effect on the Russian economy. However, Germany and other countries are unwilling to make such a move because of their dependence on Russian energy. Germany, for example, gets 25% of its oil and 40% of its natural gas from Russia, and abruptly cutting off these supplies would send the country into a recession. With all the uncertainty surrounding the war and sanctions, the euro is having a tough time finding its footing. German data started the week on a positive note, although it wasn’t enough the help the bleeding euro. German Ifo Business Climate rose to 91.8, up from 90.8 and above the consensus of 88.3 points. German Business Expectations climbed to 91.8 (90.8 prior), above the forecast of 89.1. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve hawkishness is also weighing on the euro. The Fed is in a hurry to roll out further rate hikes in order to contain inflation, and Fed Chair Powell continues to hint at a 0.50% increase in May, with possibly more such increases in the coming months. This widening of the US/Europe rate differential points to the euro continuing to lose ground. EUR/USD has broken below 1.0810, a multi-decade trendline. Below, there is support at 1.0728 and 1.0657 There is resistance at 1.0832 and 1.0903
by OANDA
Pound jumps on strong mfg. dataGBP/USD has resumed its upswing after a quiet start to the week. GBP/USD is trading at 1.3261 in the North American session, up 0.75% on the day. It was just one week ago that the pound was in the dumps, falling to the symbolic 1.30 line. Since then, the currency has gone on a tear, gaining around 2%. With plenty of turbulence and uncertainty, from the Ukraine war to oil prices to sizzling inflation, we could see further volatility in the currency markets in the short term. UK industrial order expectations for March jumped to 26, up from 20 in February and above the estimate of 16. Manufacturing output remains strong, as the sector continues to expand. The strong reading helped boost the pound today. The UK releases the February inflation report on Wednesday, with the markets bracing for an acceleration in inflation. The headline reading is expected to rise to 4.2% YoY, up from 4%, while Core CPI is projected to climb to 5.0%, up from 4.4%. The BoE continues to revise its inflation forecast upwards and has warned that CPI could hit a staggering 10% by the end of the year. The Bank has raised rates three straight times and seems likely to continue tightening in order to curb red-hot inflation. The surge in inflation has made government borrowing more expensive, and the cost of servicing the UK's national debt continues to rise. This poses a serious problem for Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who will deliver the annual budget on Wednesday. Consumers and businesses will be looking for goodies in the budget, but Sunak may be limited in what he can do, as he must allocate billions of pounds more for borrowing costs as a result of inflation and higher interest rates. In the US, Fed Chair Powell delivered a strong, hawkish message to the markets on Monday. Powell came out swinging, saying that the Fed was prepared to be more aggressive in raising rates if needed. Powell's message was crystal clear, as he noted that “the labor market is very strong, and inflation is much too strong” and said that the Fed would not hesitate to implement 50-basis point increases at future meetings if necessary. In response to Powell’s hawkish message, US Treasury yields rose on Monday to their highest level since 2019 and the upswing has continued on Tuesday, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 2.37%. GBP/USD has broken above resistance at 1.3259. Above, there is resistance at 1.3341 There is support at 1.3130 and 1.3048
by OANDA
1
Will sanctions on Russia backfire on the U.S.? What about crypto- Sanctions, led by the U.S. in hopes of punishing Russian aggression may NOT have the impact the U.S. is hoping for? Could they actually backfire? - Saudi Arabia rejects Biden's request for talks on increasing oil production and instead announces that they are considering accepting Yuan instead of dollars for Chinese Oil sales (per house rules, links to sources are not allowed) - India's move to "explore" alternative payment channels with Russia to avoid sanctions (per house rules, links to sources are not allowed) - With official inflation numbers running at 8% and climbing the Federal Reserve is being forced to raise interest rates for the first time since 2018 (per house rules, links to sources are not allowed). Multiple rate hikes are projected. The last time rates were raised markets crashed and the Fed quickly reversed course. This leads many to say that the Fed won't really raise rates as much as projected, because the market won't let them, but what these people don't seem to get is that in order to finance the U.S. national debt, new debt has to be sold every year. As inflation rises countries like Saudi Arabia become more and more inclined to invest in assets that show a return or at least hold their value. This means that unless you raise the rates to a level that offsets inflation many investors will move elsewhere and you won't be able to take on new debt. Central banks are cornered. Once they start raising rates government budgets will quickly hit a wall as interest payments on existing debt become unmanageable. - This may devastate the dollar along with the U.S. economy, but it may be great for crypto
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
$RIVN - Ready to Make New LowsEarnings were not kind to $LCID. Lucid Group cut its car production forecast for this year by as much as 40%. The company cited supply chain constraints and parts quality issues for slashing production to between 12,000 and 14,000 vehicles, down from initial expectations of 20,000. “This reflects the extraordinary supply chain and logistics challenges we’ve encountered and our unrelenting focus on delivering the highest-quality products,” Lucid CEO Peter Rawlinson said in a statement. “We remain confident in our ability to capture the tremendous opportunities ahead given our technology leadership and strong demand for our cars.” It hasn't been much different for car companies across the world, EV or not. This brings us to RIVN. A stock that has been cratering from its highs earlier this year. They report earnings on March 10th. The same day CPI is released. Talk about a double whammy. Supply chain constraints remain and I expect RIVN to guide in a very similar manner to LCID. They are both in the early innings of their life cycle as companies and not as well equipped to handle inflationary and supply risks like the seasoned TSLA. Until this point I had not even mentioned the tremendous chip shortage. Expect RIVN to only make new lows from here on out with this inverted cup and handle setup as noted above.
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by jaykenneyTRT
5